COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1243941726638743554

Whats the point?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

But given the experience of The Netherlands, it is not effective against Corona-virus.

Isn't it though what Western World is doing? Nobody says we can't stop it (without going full authoritarian mode), but only slow it down. The questions is what herd immunity is enough. 20%? 40%? 70%?

We’re not going for herd immunity.  In order to get herd immunity, we’d need a ton more infections than we have right now.  For example, if Italy keeps getting 6,000 new infection per day, they would  achieve a 60% infection rate in about 20 years.

As I wrote before, cfr should be about the same in most western countries, which suggests that Italy already has 1-2 mln cases and US 0.5-1 mln.

That would suggest that Lombardy has already reached ~10-20%.

http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200325-italy-s-veneto-region-to-launch-population-wide-testing-for-covid-19

Declared infections have nearly reached 70,000 but the head of Italy’s civil defence department Angelo Borrelli has suggested that the real number of cases could be 10 times higher than the official tally.

As far as I know they still mostly test people with symptoms who asked for medical treatment.


Ok, may be it is not pure herd immunity, but I don't see how large, already infected metropolises  can escape same'ish outcome. Why would Cuomo otherwise demanding 40,000 ventilators? Perhaps, everyone using masks can change it?

Friend, there is no such thing as 'almost herd immunity'. If it were the case, then we'd have some measure of protection against the flu each year. As it is, we have to vaccinate the vulnerable annually, because that is the only protection we have.

I think you're right about the metropolises though. Once this thing gets in, we have to expect it to hit 60-70%, slowing it down to minimise deaths and just hope that's enough. (Although herd immunity is usually close to 90-95% for measles, mumps and the like).

Nerd! 

Herd immunity is just an effect of indirect protection of your society just by being immune, isn't it???


What I mean by pure herd immunity is the tipping point when virus starts to vanishe off "by itself", that is people don't need to change (much of) their behavior to get R0 <<< 1.

Let's say it's 70% for Corona. Then if you have social distancing and masks, it's may be enough with herd immunity of 50% to get R0 <<< 1.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jessefferguson/status/1243894670645698563?s=21

[QAnonKelly]

https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/trump-asks-pastors-to-pray-for-reelection-calls-nov-3-one-of-the-biggest-dates-in-the-history-of-religion/

We have a very, very big election coming up, especially if you’re evangelical—if you’re evangelical, if you’re Christian, if you’re, frankly, almost any faith. And I guess probably you could go any faith, Tony, if you think about it. But we have a very important election coming up. We have people on the other side that are against a lot of the things we all stand for. And you know one of the things I’m most proud of is knocking out the Johnson Amendment, where the people that we most respect, namely the people on this line, you weren’t able to speak your will, speak what you thought, speak about where you stand politically, what’s good for the church, what’s good for all of the things that we represent. And we knocked out the Johnson Amendment. They would have held you very horribly responsible if they wanted to, and they did in some cases. What they did to the people that we want to hear from, and people that your people want to hear from, so importantly. So, we’re able to do that and many other things. And so, it’s just going to be, it’s a big date, Nov. 3—that’s going to be one of the biggest dates in the history of religion, as far as I’m concerned. So, I want you to be, we have to keep aware of that, ‘cause as we fight this, people are forgetting about anything else. You turn on the news, and all you see is the coronavirus or whatever—some people call it the Chinese virus, they call it a lot of different things—but the virus, that’s all you see. You don’t see anything else.

[It’s so Joever]

A quarantine of the NYC metropolitan area is actually a great idea, and should be the first step in an aggressive war on the virus. Preventing any further spread of the virus from the NYC hotspot is important in containing the virus. That being said, a national lockdown is still necessary for two weeks, but this is a start. Still, I am not very optimistic considering it is coming from Trump.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The CDC doesn't need to open its mouth again unless it's to tell us we finally have tests.

I'm so sick of excuses.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Whether it makes a significant difference is the real concern. There is nothing so far that has worked as well as isolation, and there's a cynical part of me that wonders whether supplying masks is designed primarily to cut out the isolation stage, and try and continue life as normal, which still poses a huge risk to the elderly and immunocompromised.

Obviously, it is. Why is that cynical to try to start to do it? It's as "cynical" as vaccinate people so that they can "continue life as normal"

[It’s so Joever]

Herd immunity is the dumbest strategy yet.
Almost tops drinking bleach to get rid of the virus.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A quarantine of the NYC metropolitan area is actually a great idea, and should be the first step in an aggressive war on the virus. Preventing any further spread of the virus from the NYC hotspot is important in containing the virus. That being said, a national lockdown is still necessary for two weeks, but this is a start. Still, I am not very optimistic considering it is coming from Trump.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNN/status/1243947286054436866

[It’s so Joever]

A quarantine of the NYC metropolitan area is actually a great idea, and should be the first step in an aggressive war on the virus. Preventing any further spread of the virus from the NYC hotspot is important in containing the virus. That being said, a national lockdown is still necessary for two weeks, but this is a start. Still, I am not very optimistic considering it is coming from Trump.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNN/status/1243947286054436866

I assume Trump’s quarantine would mean cutting off all non-essential travel between the NYC area and the rest of the US. That being said, I have no clue what Trump has in mind. For all we know, this could be one of his many nonsensical statements.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

He's still going after Michigan and WA

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1243944020549808128

Looks like the tweet was deleted by his originator. From the replay on the news, it sounded like he was talking about companies that he would need to use the DPA against, not the Governor.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

New York is considering training national guard members to use the hand pumps in case they run out of ventilators. They require someone to constantly pump them 24/7, primitive old school technology.

This is what we get for outsourcing our manufacturing, reaping all of the profits of globalization and spending not a dime on anything else.

The US was, before the crisis, the world's largest producer of ventilators (with the other large producers being based in Switzerland, the Netherlands and New Zealand, not exactly outsourcing hotspots), so the criticism on outsourcing here is totally unfounded.

Now its not, if we had spent money on mitigating the consequences of globalization instead of putting it all into padding stock portfolios, we wouldn't be in the mess and Trump wouldn't even be President. 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

He's still going after Michigan and WA

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1243944020549808128

Looks like the tweet was deleted by his originator. From the replay on the news, it sounded like he was talking about companies that he would need to use the DPA against, not the Governor.

Yes, Unbiased Warrior of Vox Aaron Rupar "accidentally" did it again
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1243955911758155776

[Torrain]

If government advice shifts as suggested above, I'd imagine that the Walmarts etc will start stocking them at Washington's direction.

And where do you expect Walmart to get them?

If the US is moving towards a recommendation for widespread public usage of masks, I would expect that the supply chain would prioritise them as a new consumable. Whether that's through domestic production, or an attempt to corner the international market, it was only a guess, and not one I'd expect to be answered quickly.

There isn't enough supply to meet demand, but given that masks are a lot simpler to produce than ventilators, I'd wager there has to be at least one major American clothing corporation willing to gamble on temporary mask production.

[American2020]

I think many countries (France, Italy, Spain, USA and many others) will have to create investigation commission. These commissions should determine why everything went wrong during this crisis and what sould be done in the future.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think many countries (France, Italy, Spain, USA and many others) will have to create investigation commission. These commissions should determine why everything went wrong during this crisis and what sould be done in the future.

There should absolutely be charges for crimes against humanity.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/CapitolAlert/status/1243640047548555264

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1243940615123087360

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://twitter.com/CapitolAlert/status/1243640047548555264

Leave it to Governor Gruesome to praise Trump.

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/jessefferguson/status/1243894670645698563?s=21

This is a very big deal especially if we start to see these kinds of numbers in other polls that are released  

It shows that the small rally round the flag poll bump that Trump was getting is starting to fade maybe his increasingly partisan attacks on the Governess are starting to turn people against him again


this is bad news for Trump because as I have been saying we heading into some very tough economic times and the recently passed stimulus bill will do very little to soften the Blow for many Americans who are about to get hit with a recession with potentially 20 percent unemployment  

He better Hope this poll turns out to be wrong because if his bump fades right before this recession really starts doing damage to a lot of people.......He and the GOP are in very big trouble

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Very sad news out of Illinois - an infant has succumbed to the virus (per Governor Pritzker).

https://mobile.twitter.com/13WREX/status/1243985204722774017

[Torrain]

Nerd! 

Guilty as charged!

Herd immunity is just an effect of indirect protection of your society just by being immune, isn't it???


What I mean by pure herd immunity is the tipping point when virus starts to vanishe off "by itself", that is people don't need to change (much of) their behavior to get R0 <<< 1.

Let's say it's 70% for Corona. Then if you have social distancing and masks, it's may be enough with herd immunity of 50% to get R0 <<< 1.

Yeah, that makes quite a bit of sense. There does seem to be some kind of tipping point, that Singapore and South Korea have reached, where cases can be suppressed. It's not ideal, given it seems to be a little unstable, (with the risk of outbreaks still likely), but it's definitely one potential strategy.

TBH, somewhere with a large, but fairly spread out population, like Russia or the rural US might actually be the best place to trial this. Shut down regions/cities with outbreaks, while maintaining manufacturing etc in regions with few/no cases. Get the outbreak under control through a combination of controlled cases, and public health measures, i.e. masks etc, to keep R<1 until vaccination or herd immunity is established. If the situation is under control, then public health measures can be tweaked, to adjust for updated data from the scientific community on the ground in the worst hit hotspots.

[The Dowager Mod]

I'm no constitutional scholar obviously but wouldn't the 9th and 10th amendments have something to say about the orange idiot locking down anything?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/trump-asks-pastors-to-pray-for-reelection-calls-nov-3-one-of-the-biggest-dates-in-the-history-of-religion/

We have a very, very big election coming up, especially if you’re evangelical—if you’re evangelical, if you’re Christian, if you’re, frankly, almost any faith. And I guess probably you could go any faith, Tony, if you think about it. But we have a very important election coming up. We have people on the other side that are against a lot of the things we all stand for. And you know one of the things I’m most proud of is knocking out the Johnson Amendment, where the people that we most respect, namely the people on this line, you weren’t able to speak your will, speak what you thought, speak about where you stand politically, what’s good for the church, what’s good for all of the things that we represent. And we knocked out the Johnson Amendment. They would have held you very horribly responsible if they wanted to, and they did in some cases. What they did to the people that we want to hear from, and people that your people want to hear from, so importantly. So, we’re able to do that and many other things. And so, it’s just going to be, it’s a big date, Nov. 3—that’s going to be one of the biggest dates in the history of religion, as far as I’m concerned. So, I want you to be, we have to keep aware of that, ‘cause as we fight this, people are forgetting about anything else. You turn on the news, and all you see is the coronavirus or whatever—some people call it the Chinese virus, they call it a lot of different things—but the virus, that’s all you see. You don’t see anything else.

Setting aside his mendacity and inability to use the English language, Mr. Trump is not entirely wrong. November 3rd will give the American "Christian conservative" movement (not Christian, not conservative, but definitely well-described as a sort of movement) one final chance to drop its reputation in the toilet and flush.

[Torrain]

https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/trump-asks-pastors-to-pray-for-reelection-calls-nov-3-one-of-the-biggest-dates-in-the-history-of-religion/

We have a very, very big election coming up, especially if you’re evangelical—if you’re evangelical, if you’re Christian, if you’re, frankly, almost any faith. And I guess probably you could go any faith, Tony, if you think about it. But we have a very important election coming up. We have people on the other side that are against a lot of the things we all stand for. And you know one of the things I’m most proud of is knocking out the Johnson Amendment, where the people that we most respect, namely the people on this line, you weren’t able to speak your will, speak what you thought, speak about where you stand politically, what’s good for the church, what’s good for all of the things that we represent. And we knocked out the Johnson Amendment. They would have held you very horribly responsible if they wanted to, and they did in some cases. What they did to the people that we want to hear from, and people that your people want to hear from, so importantly. So, we’re able to do that and many other things. And so, it’s just going to be, it’s a big date, Nov. 3—that’s going to be one of the biggest dates in the history of religion, as far as I’m concerned. So, I want you to be, we have to keep aware of that, ‘cause as we fight this, people are forgetting about anything else. You turn on the news, and all you see is the coronavirus or whatever—some people call it the Chinese virus, they call it a lot of different things—but the virus, that’s all you see. You don’t see anything else.

Setting aside his mendacity and inability to use the English language, Mr. Trump is not entirely wrong. November 3rd will give the American "Christian conservative" movement (not Christian, not conservative, but definitely well-described as a sort of movement) one final chance to drop its reputation in the toilet and flush.

John 11.35