COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

But given the experience of The Netherlands, it is not effective against Corona-virus.

Isn't it though what Western World is doing? Nobody says we can't stop it (without going full authoritarian mode), but only slow it down. The questions is what herd immunity is enough. 20%? 40%? 70%?

We’re not going for herd immunity.  In order to get herd immunity, we’d need a ton more infections than we have right now.  For example, if Italy keeps getting 6,000 new infection per day, they would  achieve a 60% infection rate in about 20 years.

[Florida Man for Crime]

It's happening. Trump & DeSantis are killing off the Republican base in Florida. This is the literal definition of political suicide.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1243683419759968258

TALLAHASSEE — At least five residents from The Villages have contracted the coronavirus through community spread or close contact with someone else who had the virus, according to the Florida Department of Health in Sumter County.

The Villages is a rapidly growing retirement community of more than 50,000 residents that spans three north central Florida counties. Most of the community is in Sumter County, where 29 people have tested positive for the virus as of Friday.

At least 16 of the 29 residents who tested positive had contracted the virus while traveling, and another eight residents remained under investigation.

Five residents either became infected through the community, or after having close contact with someone who also tested positive, Megan McCarthy, a DOH Sumter County spokesperson, said.

You would think that Republicans would want to protect their base voters from a virus which is especially deadly to olds.

[Torrain]

...where do we get them? I have no idea where to buy a mask.

Hardware stores used to carry them, but it's my impression that they've been in short supply for the last month.

If government advice shifts as suggested above, I'd imagine that the Wallmarts etc will start stocking them at Washington's direction.

Whether it makes a significant difference is the real concern. There is nothing so far that has worked as well as isolation, and there's a cynical part of me that wonders whether supplying masks is designed primarily to cut out the isolation stage, and try and continue life as normal, which still poses a huge risk to the elderly and immunocompromised.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Whether it makes a significant difference is the real concern. There is nothing so far that has worked as well as isolation, and there's a cynical part of me that wonders whether supplying masks is designed primarily to cut out the isolation stage, and try and continue life as normal, which still poses a huge risk to the elderly and immunocompromised.

How much do you want to bet that this is Trump's plan to restart the economy?:

1) Tell people that the economy can now restart because people can be 100% safe by wearing masks.
2) Nobody can find any masks.
3) #2 is ignored. "We have the greatest masks you have ever seen. Now get back to work!"

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

But given the experience of The Netherlands, it is not effective against Corona-virus.

Isn't it though what Western World is doing? Nobody says we can't stop it (without going full authoritarian mode), but only slow it down. The questions is what herd immunity is enough. 20%? 40%? 70%?

We’re not going for herd immunity.  In order to get herd immunity, we’d need a ton more infections than we have right now.  For example, if Italy keeps getting 6,000 new infection per day, they would  achieve a 60% infection rate in about 20 years.

As I wrote before, cfr should be about the same in most western countries, which suggests that Italy already has 1-2 mln cases and US 0.5-1 mln.

That would suggest that Lombardy has already reached ~10-20%.

http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200325-italy-s-veneto-region-to-launch-population-wide-testing-for-covid-19

Declared infections have nearly reached 70,000 but the head of Italy’s civil defence department Angelo Borrelli has suggested that the real number of cases could be 10 times higher than the official tally.

As far as I know they still mostly test people with symptoms who asked for medical treatment.


Ok, may be it is not pure herd immunity, but I don't see how large, already infected metropolises  can escape same'ish outcome. Why would Cuomo otherwise demanding 40,000 ventilators? Perhaps, everyone using masks can change it?

[Tender Branson]

Spring Breakers deliver STDs and Coronavirus:

https://twitter.com/mikaelthalen/status/1243281598037913600

[Torrain]

But given the experience of The Netherlands, it is not effective against Corona-virus.

Isn't it though what Western World is doing? Nobody says we can't stop it (without going full authoritarian mode), but only slow it down. The questions is what herd immunity is enough. 20%? 40%? 70%?

We’re not going for herd immunity.  In order to get herd immunity, we’d need a ton more infections than we have right now.  For example, if Italy keeps getting 6,000 new infection per day, they would  achieve a 60% infection rate in about 20 years.

As I wrote before, cfr should be about the same in most western countries, which suggests that Italy already has 1-2 mln cases and US 0.5-1 mln.

That would suggest that Lombardy has already reached ~10-20%.

http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200325-italy-s-veneto-region-to-launch-population-wide-testing-for-covid-19

Declared infections have nearly reached 70,000 but the head of Italy’s civil defence department Angelo Borrelli has suggested that the real number of cases could be 10 times higher than the official tally.

As far as I know they still mostly test people with symptoms who asked for medical treatment.


Ok, may be it is not pure herd immunity, but I don't see how large, already infected metropolises  can escape same'ish outcome. Why would Cuomo otherwise demanding 40,000 ventilators? Perhaps, everyone using masks can change it?

Friend, there is no such thing as 'almost herd immunity'. If it were the case, then we'd have some measure of protection against the flu each year. As it is, we have to vaccinate the vulnerable annually, because that is the only protection we have.

I think you're right about the metropolises though. Once this thing gets in, we have to expect it to hit 60-70%, slowing it down to minimise deaths and just hope that's enough. (Although herd immunity is usually close to 90-95% for measles, mumps and the like).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If we were actually trying to achieve herd immunity, we wouldn’t be implementing economic or social restrictions in areas where the virus spread is still low.  We’d want to encourage the virus to spread up until the point where we project it to strain the health care system, and only then try to flatten the curve.

In fact, we’d want people to be leaving NYC right now so that they take the virus to places that can better handle the spread.

[Tintrlvr]

But given the experience of The Netherlands, it is not effective against Corona-virus.

Isn't it though what Western World is doing? Nobody says we can't stop it (without going full authoritarian mode), but only slow it down. The questions is what herd immunity is enough. 20%? 40%? 70%?

We’re not going for herd immunity.  In order to get herd immunity, we’d need a ton more infections than we have right now.  For example, if Italy keeps getting 6,000 new infection per day, they would  achieve a 60% infection rate in about 20 years.

As I wrote before, cfr should be about the same in most western countries, which suggests that Italy already has 1-2 mln cases and US 0.5-1 mln.

That would suggest that Lombardy has already reached ~10-20%.

http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200325-italy-s-veneto-region-to-launch-population-wide-testing-for-covid-19

Declared infections have nearly reached 70,000 but the head of Italy’s civil defence department Angelo Borrelli has suggested that the real number of cases could be 10 times higher than the official tally.

As far as I know they still mostly test people with symptoms who asked for medical treatment.


Ok, may be it is not pure herd immunity, but I don't see how large, already infected metropolises  can escape same'ish outcome. Why would Cuomo otherwise demanding 40,000 ventilators? Perhaps, everyone using masks can change it?

Friend, there is no such thing as 'almost herd immunity'. If it were the case, then we'd have some measure of protection against the flu each year. As it is, we have to vaccinate the vulnerable annually, because that is the only protection we have.

I think you're right about the metropolises though. Once this thing gets in, we have to expect it to hit 60-70%, slowing it down to minimise deaths and just hope that's enough. (Although herd immunity is usually close to 90-95% for measles, mumps and the like).

The flu is different because the family of viruses that cause the flu have an unusually high rate of mutation, so exposure to the flu one year doesn't give you much protection in future years because by then it has mutated considerably. By contrast, coronaviruses are relatively stable, and this particular coronavirus has actually been remarked on by scientists as having an unusually low rate of mutation.

(Not endorsing/defending the rest of the comment.)

[Torrain]

But given the experience of The Netherlands, it is not effective against Corona-virus.

Isn't it though what Western World is doing? Nobody says we can't stop it (without going full authoritarian mode), but only slow it down. The questions is what herd immunity is enough. 20%? 40%? 70%?

We’re not going for herd immunity.  In order to get herd immunity, we’d need a ton more infections than we have right now.  For example, if Italy keeps getting 6,000 new infection per day, they would  achieve a 60% infection rate in about 20 years.

As I wrote before, cfr should be about the same in most western countries, which suggests that Italy already has 1-2 mln cases and US 0.5-1 mln.

That would suggest that Lombardy has already reached ~10-20%.

http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200325-italy-s-veneto-region-to-launch-population-wide-testing-for-covid-19

Declared infections have nearly reached 70,000 but the head of Italy’s civil defence department Angelo Borrelli has suggested that the real number of cases could be 10 times higher than the official tally.

As far as I know they still mostly test people with symptoms who asked for medical treatment.


Ok, may be it is not pure herd immunity, but I don't see how large, already infected metropolises  can escape same'ish outcome. Why would Cuomo otherwise demanding 40,000 ventilators? Perhaps, everyone using masks can change it?

Friend, there is no such thing as 'almost herd immunity'. If it were the case, then we'd have some measure of protection against the flu each year. As it is, we have to vaccinate the vulnerable annually, because that is the only protection we have.

I think you're right about the metropolises though. Once this thing gets in, we have to expect it to hit 60-70%, slowing it down to minimise deaths and just hope that's enough. (Although herd immunity is usually close to 90-95% for measles, mumps and the like).

The flu is different because the family of viruses that cause the flu have an unusually high rate of mutation, so exposure to the flu one year doesn't give you much protection in future years because by then it has mutated considerably and protection from the previous year, or especially from 2+ years in the past, is largely irrelevant. By contrast, coronaviruses are relatively stable, and this particular coronavirus has actually been remarked on by scientists as having an unusually low rate of mutation.

That's fair. But we still have no idea about where this virus is going next. It's not just that flu evolves each year, it's that regional strains reach different parts of the world, and rise to the top of the pile.

The virus has alreaded developed 'quasispecies' as we call them, thanks to low levels of genetic mutation, and we can easily distinguish the different populations (i.e. the strain in Italy is now distinct from the strain in the US).

The real question is whether the antibodies produced by infection in the US would protect you against the Italian strain. If there is broad cross-protection, then we're all good.
But if antibody protection is fully or partially insufficient, then we will require significant further action to prevent this virus becoming a long term health concern across the world.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If government advice shifts as suggested above, I'd imagine that the Wallmarts etc will start stocking them at Washington's direction.

And where do you expect Wallmart to get them?

[Florida Man for Crime]

The private American medical system continues to work flawlessly, far better than any sort of "socialized medicine."

Another small business reeling from COVID-19: the doctor’s office
Primary care doctors are warning that if they have to close, more patients might end up in Texas hospitals at a time when those facilities don’t have the capacity to handle them.

Erica Swegler is not just worried about her patients during the coronavirus pandemic; she’s also worried about her business, which she says has fallen into the red.

...

Primary care doctors and specialists are warning that, as financial constraints lead them to consider laying off staff or even go out of business, a greater number of patients might end up in Texas hospitals at a time when those facilities don’t have the capacity to handle them.

Nurse practitioners in doctors’ offices or outpatient clinics are already losing jobs or being furloughed, said Christy Blanco, president of the Texas Nurse Practitioners professional association.

One Houston-area nurse practitioner, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because her employer does not allow her to talk to reporters, said she'd had her hours cut this week by one-fifth because of low patient volumes.

Now is obviously EXACTLY the time when we should want the health care sector to be laying off workers. It is not as though all these primary care doctors and nurses could be conceivably put to work on anything useful...

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1243941726638743554

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Way too late for that, Don.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there any federal mechanism to enforce a quarantine?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-recession-will-be-as-bad-or-worse-than-2009-imf-director-warns-11585380805?mod=breakingnews

*Trump Says He Is Considering Quarantine in New York, New Jersey, Parts of Connecticut

*Trump Says Quarantine Would Be ‘Enforceable”

*Trump Says He May Restrict Travel from New York, New Jersey

*Trump Says He May Make Decision Today

*Trump on Whether Country Will Reopen By Easter: ‘We’ll See What Happens’

[wbrocks67]

He's still going after Michigan and WA

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1243944020549808128

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

New York is considering training national guard members to use the hand pumps in case they run out of ventilators. They require someone to constantly pump them 24/7, primitive old school technology.

This is what we get for outsourcing our manufacturing, reaping all of the profits of globalization and spending not a dime on anything else.

[Dr. Arch]

New York is considering training national guard members to use the hand pumps in case they run out of ventilators. They require someone to constantly pump them 24/7, primitive old school technology.

This is what we get for outsourcing our manufacturing, reaping all of the profits of globalization and spending not a dime on anything else.

Ladies and gentlemen, "the most powerful and capable country in the world"...

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1243941726638743554

Whats the point?

[Tintrlvr]

New York is considering training national guard members to use the hand pumps in case they run out of ventilators. They require someone to constantly pump them 24/7, primitive old school technology.

This is what we get for outsourcing our manufacturing, reaping all of the profits of globalization and spending not a dime on anything else.

The US was, before the crisis, the world's largest producer of ventilators (with the other large producers being based in Switzerland, the Netherlands and New Zealand, not exactly outsourcing hotspots), so the criticism on outsourcing here is totally unfounded.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

New York is considering training national guard members to use the hand pumps in case they run out of ventilators. They require someone to constantly pump them 24/7, primitive old school technology.

This is what we get for outsourcing our manufacturing, reaping all of the profits of globalization and spending not a dime on anything else.

Those hand pumps are no joke.  It's likely because I have small hands, but I can't imagine doing that for hours on end.  

[Florida Man for Crime]

Read this twitter thread regarding that study that said there would be only 80k deaths in the USA. It explains the assumptions behind this, and shows why (IMO) it is unjustifiably over-optimistic. It is based on curve fitting assuming that the epidemic in the USA will be like in Wuhan, i.e. assuming that the US lockdown measures will be as effective as the Wuhan lockdown was. Based on what I have seen of how people are behaving in supposed "lockdown," I am pretty doubtful of that. I don't know what it is like where you all are, but when I look around my area (which is supposedly "shelter in place," I see lots of gatherings and contact still occurring. It is interesting as an "what if" if-then exercise, but should be interpreted with caution - interpret it as "what will happen if certain assumptions are true" rather than as a projection.

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243853350984179713

[Frodo]

FBI warns of potential surge in hate crimes against Asian Americans amid coronavirus

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

He's still going after Michigan and WA

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1243944020549808128

That woman*