COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[Beet]

People that think many parts of the USA won't turn into a situation lile Italy soon have no clue. COVID-19 is spreading faster in America than it did in Italy, and Italy had good leadership and a national lockdown, neither of which America has.

This is really sad for me to say, but in 2 or 3 weeks, Americans will be praying that the situation improves to a level like Italy had. It's going to be worse. Many are in denial but they'll see. I'm so sorry for the American people and their families for what's coming. God bless your souls.

One advantage that the U.S. has is lower population density. Only five states have a higher population density than Italy, and only New Jersey is higher than Lombardy. NYC is pretty much the most vulnerable based on size and population density, there aren't too many other cities in the US like that.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

"Slowing the Spread".

We need, at the very least, an analysis of where the spread is growing and receding.

Each country has a different style of growth of the virus. The blue lines below represents the growth rate in 'Active Cases' per country. The axis are kept at the same scale for comparative purposes.

Germany has started reporting "recovered cases" in the last week, so the comparison between countries is now better using 'Active Cases'.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/



United Kingdom - Started late, but is now showing an uptick in growth. Keep in mind that with an incubation time of 5-7 days plus testing, todays case growth depends on social behaviour 7-14 days ago.



France - Fairly linear increase in growth rate over time, with the genuine appearance of a slightly 'flattened' curve compared to other European countries.



Germany - Despite a low mortality rate, Germany has experienced the 2nd strongest growth in "Active Cases" globally during the last two days. This may be due to increased testing.



Spain - Based on recent data, Spain will take over Italy in terms of 'Active Case' numbers shortly if that level of growth is maintained.

Based on the trendlines (smoothed dotted lines above) of 7 countries, including the four above plus Italy, South Korea and USA, there is a degree of predictability of the number of 'Active Cases' of the Corona-virus within each population.

For example, the decline in growth in South Korea today was exactly in line with the predicted growth (or decay) rate based on these curves.

The smoothed trendline predicted a drop in 'Active Cases' of 315 in South Korea. The actual drop was 301.

Tomorrow, I will:

• Compare growth rates in all of these countries including Italy and the USA;
• Run a fresh calculation on the Storebought Affluenza Index.

There would appear to be a strong correlation between Corona-virus clusters and wealthy suburbs developing in Australia:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/coronavirus-sydney-eastern-suburbs-sees-concentration-of-cases/12096790

Melbourne is exactly the same. My advice is not to travel in the Business or First Class section on major International Airlines.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/27 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (↑41.03%)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1243619964252282886?s=20

[Gass3268]

Does Trump think that COVID-19 is a steroid?

https://twitter.com/Santucci/status/1243708705557950464?s=20

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1243696001958981632

How can it take longer to get a negative result than a positive one?  If after 5 minutes, you don’t have a positive result, what else could the result be?

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1243619964252282886?s=20

Worthy of impeachment in and of itself.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1243619964252282886?s=20

Trump should be charged with criminal negligence when hes out of office.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1243619964252282886?s=20

This is Trump's idea of greatness: making people suffer to punish somebody he perceives as an uppity woman only because she dared to call him out on his incompetence & cruelty.

The need to drive this man out of office on November 3rd can't be understated.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243710532714192898

SHE'S FAILING BECAUSE SHE ATTACKS ME

[GeorgiaModerate]

What does he mean by "half"?

A weak attempt at an insulting nickname.  "Half wit"-mer.

[wbrocks67]

His press conference was an abomination and he literally told the American public that he is okay with people getting sick and hurt in any state if the governors aren't "nice" to him. Despicable.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

His press conference was an abomination and he literally told the American public that he is okay with people getting sick and hurt in any state if the governors aren't "nice" to him. Despicable.

Approval rating then increases to 52% somehow.

[Anti-Bothsidesism]

https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1243619964252282886?s=20

Worthy of impeachment in and of itself.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243710532714192898

SHE'S FAILING BECAUSE SHE ATTACKS ME

Mental wounds not healing

Who & what's to blame

I'm goin' off the rails on a crazy train

I'm goin' off the rails on a crazy train

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

He's not non-essential, he's very essential, just non-functional.

[LimoLiberal]

Look at Whitmer's twitter replies. She's so polarizing. All these WWC Michigan men hate her. But she's queen regardless. I can't wait till she runs for president in 2024.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/status/1243683774422016003

New York City has more than 5x as many coronavirus infections than Canada does. Let that sink in.

Even Westchester county has more than Canada. Over 0.7% of the population has it there. Looking at the counties in NY, all the really bad ones are part of the NY metro area, and the rest of the state has only around 2-3% of the cases.

[Xing]

Refusing to send medical supplies to save lives because Michigan Governor Lady mean to trigger the libs.

[7,052,770]

I mean, I normally do this tongue-in-cheek, but this time I think it's probably true?

Michigan 2020: Lean D -> Likely D

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

https://twitter.com/KFaulders/status/1243709439078731779?s=19

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/266622346671058944?s=19

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/KFaulders/status/1243709439078731779?s=19

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/266622346671058944?s=19

ALWAYS A TWEET!

 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The “pro-life” Party.

https://twitter.com/propublica/status/1243727045680680964?s=21

[GoTfan]

A projection meter for COVID-19 in the US.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections.

[Dr. Arch]

A projection meter for COVID-19 in the US.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections.

81,000... 😰