IL-03

[libertpaulian]

If my research is true, then there were probably other factors that contributed to Lipinski's loss.  A Hispanic population surge in the district was going to be fatal for him, given his vote against the Dream Act.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This might actually end up not being that close. Newman is currently up 3 points with 72% in, but that's with Will County nearly all outstanding. Newman won Will in 2018 by 17 points.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

This might actually end up not being that close. Newman is currently up 3 points with 72% in, but that's with Will County nearly all outstanding. Newman won Will in 2018 by 17 points.

Chicago has 52 precincts outstanding. Will has 16. DuPage has 1.5 (?). Suburban Cook has 45.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

If my research is true, then there were probably other factors that contributed to Lipinski's loss.  A Hispanic population surge in the district was going to be fatal for him, given his vote against the Dream Act.

I'm not sure about that.  He did fairly well in Hispanic precincts last time, and his recent voting record has been pro-immigrant.

[Pollster]

In Illinois 11, whats with the Left leaning candidate doing relatively well against Bill Foster.

The progressive insurgents tend to do better in Congressional district primaries, voters there tend to know their communities better and don't have to make large assumptions about electability (i.e a voter is more likely to have a better idea of who/what their neighbor will vote for versus a New Yorker having to make a guess about who/what an Ohioan would vote for).

[YE]

This feels like the exact same thread from two years ago.

I'm pro-life and so is Lpinski. But Lipinski is unaccpetable because he voted against Obamacare and failed to endorse Obama and called IIRC Ronald Reagan a hero. Not due to the fact progressives are smearing him as "anti-choice". 

[Badger]

So much for the Democrats being a Big Tent party.

Don't care how often I have to repeat myself on this. Yes, any candidate who is not only adamantly Auntie choice, but a lead Point person in legislating against gay rights for years, votes against Obamacare, refuses to endorse Obama for re-election, is at best Centrist on most other economic issues, AND represents a safely Democratic District to boot, yeah, they're going to fly like a lead balloon and deservedly so.

Additionally, if Lapinski was representing a district in West Virginia, Idaho, or maybe even non Gary or Indianapolis Indiana, relatively few Democrats here would seriously give him much beef.

On a further note, how many Republicans can you point to who are as similarly left-of-center on as many issues that Lipinski is right-of-center on and representing a safely Republican District who is it getting primaried? Please, go on and show me the pro-choice, longtime Pro gay-marriage, pro-obamacare, and generally moderate to right of Center on most other issues Republican who refused to endorse Mitt Romney due to being to extremist, who is also representing an r + 8 District without getting primaried.

I'll wait.

Charlie Baker signed a transgender civil rights bill, a $15 minimum wage, and a tough red flag law.

Meh, picking a blue State Governor seems a little bit like a cheat because the voting Dynamics for congressional representation versus an executive oh, and Judgment of their voting record accordingly, are rather different. Not to mention how how much do you want to bet if he new knew had tried to veto these bills he would have been overridden by the legislature in a heartbeat?

Still, I'll give you at least some points for Baker. He only lost about a third of the votes to a completely underfunded no name candidate due to his moderation.

How about Larry Hogan? I simply assumed because he's a vaunted moderate in a state like Maryland that he must be pro-choice and pro-gay-rights

Yes, forgot about him.  He signed some laws beefing up gun control as well as a ban on conversion therapy.

My point is...the Dems should be able to be tolerant of someone like Lipinski.  This is part of the reason why we're so polarized.

Incidentally, your analogy also fails in that Massachusetts and Maryland are far far more D friendly for pvi than Lipinski District. To be a true equivalent to Lipinski, Hogan or Baker would have to be governor of someplace like Texas, Georgia, or South Carolina. How well do you think they would do in a primary among "big tent" minded Republicans down there?

And again, if you just scratch the surface you'll see that Democrats and progressives on this list ARE reasonably Tower of moderate to conservative Democrats who represent conservative districts and states.

[Badger]

If my research is true, then there were probably other factors that contributed to Lipinski's loss.  A Hispanic population surge in the district was going to be fatal for him, given his vote against the Dream Act.

Oh yes, yet another reason it puts him gross out of step with even the most middle-of-the-road typical Democrat. Or even most Americans. Hell, he had to have known this is actually voting against the interest of most of his own dang constituents!

Still waiting to hear about that Pro DREAM Act Republican representing a + 6 R District

[Yellowhammer]

I've been saving my election victory song all f**king primary season long.

Not surprised you listen to demented state cult music.

[Yellowhammer]

So much for the Democrats being a Big Tent party.

We are a big tent party. Progressives are part of the party, too.

Ideological uniformity does not a big tent make. You're a teepee full of clowns and witch doctors.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeesh, I thought I was derailing this thread, you win YH.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1240104207740526594

Another reason why Lipinski had less 'potential' voters accessible this time when compared to 2018. Less ad money and less machine efforts in the last week.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Hopefully Lipinski voters know that they need to #VoteBlueNoMatterWho

[Badger]

I've been saving my election victory song all f**king primary season long.

Not surprised you listen to demented state cult music.

Triggered traitorous racists. The yummiest tears around!

[Nyvin]

So much for the Democrats being a Big Tent party.

We are a big tent party. Progressives are part of the party, too.

Ideological uniformity does not a big tent make. You're a teepee full of clowns and witch doctors.

"Big Tent Party" is a myth.   Polarization is too strong nowadays to appeal to everyone,  Republicans don't even bother to try anymore.

Therefore there's no real reason for the Democrats to either. 

If you're running in a super conservative area, fine, go right of center like JBE or Peterson.   

If you're in a district where the Dem Pres candidate gets 55%+ of the vote, no, no reason to at all.

[Green Line]

Hopefully Lipinski voters know that they need to #VoteBlueNoMatterWho

Nope.  I'll vote for the pro life candidate.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1240104207740526594

Another reason why Lipinski had less 'potential' voters accessible this time when compared to 2018. Less ad money and less machine efforts in the last week.

In other words, they have their heads up Trump's butt so much that they'd rather sacrifice an ally to the political gods than just suck it up and accept that they have a disagreement?

[Holmes]

Hopefully Lipinski voters know that they need to #VoteBlueNoMatterWho

Nope.  I'll vote for the pro life candidate.

Now’s not the time for hate and toxicity, stop being a Lipinski Bro and unite.

[Suburbia]

Marie Newman will win the Democratic primary, defeating Lipniski.

She will be the next congresswoman anyway.

It also shows, that you cannot be pro-life Democrat running anymore. Lipniski, Manchin, Addabbo, Cuellar, etc. have to watch out.

Bob Casey Sr. would not be accepted in the Democratic Party today.

Casey Jr. and Tim Kaine had to shift their views.

That's why Casey will never be VP, they'd be a floor fight at the convention.

Just like how Tom Ridge and Christie Whitman would never be accepted in the Republican Party today, they are too pro-choice for the South.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully Lipinski voters know that they need to #VoteBlueNoMatterWho

Sigh.... ja wohl

[Green Line]

Hopefully Lipinski voters know that they need to #VoteBlueNoMatterWho

Nope.  I'll vote for the pro life candidate.

Now’s not the time for hate and toxicity, stop being a Lipinski Bro and unite.

I'm raditating toxicity.  Lol.  Anyway I never said I cared about progressive values or whatever.  I supported beautiful Dan because he's pro life and Catholic.  Thats it.

[Pericles]

Great result, IL-03 can and should have a progressive Representative and it's a step forward that they'll get this now. So long, Lipinski!

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Hopefully Lipinski voters know that they need to #VoteBlueNoMatterWho

gtfo DINO  ... wait, come back!!

[Holmes]

Hopefully Lipinski voters know that they need to #VoteBlueNoMatterWho

Sigh.... ja wohl

Alhamdulillah my dude.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1240104207740526594

Another reason why Lipinski had less 'potential' voters accessible this time when compared to 2018. Less ad money and less machine efforts in the last week.

In other words, they have their heads up Trump's butt so much that they'd rather sacrifice an ally to the political gods than just suck it up and accept that they have a disagreement?

Apparently so. I'd say "un-f**king-believable" but I really don't expect much better from Big Pro-Life these days. They'd rather have wall-to-wall Republican dominance for its own sake than cultivate viable pro-life contingents in both parties. They weren't interested in saving Joe Donnelly's ass two years ago either, although at least in that case his opponent was pro-life too.