NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[jimrtex]

Is it just me or do some of our election tools appear virtually unworkable when it comes to data mining NV election results?

Additionally, there is no means to easily export data sets into Excel, where one can play around with and filter the data.

After you paste the results into Excel, which will have to be done 100 pages at a time,

Use an expressions like:

=INDIRECT(ADDRESS(ROW()+COLUMN()-1,1)) and repeat across (Bn:ALn) to get all the fields for a precinct.

After you have that select everything and copy and paste value.

Insert a column A and fill it with.

=IF(ISNUMBER(Bn),99999,ROW())

Copy column 1 and paste the values, then sort by Column A. All the extraneous rows will sort to the bottom. Delete them, and Column A.

I don't know how the precincts in Clark or Washoe or other counties are organized.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Turnout is very bad. Might just hit 100K.

So it'll only eclipse 2016 turnout by 16%? How horrendous

Trump +10 in Nevada confirmed!

[Gass3268]

With Buttigieg winning Lincoln County and very close in White Pine County, I would love to see a poll of Utah this week. I still think Sanders wins, but I have to imagine Buttigieg will be strong there. He might even be the candidate of the small number of Mormon Democrats.

[Young Conservative]

Turnout is very bad. Might just hit 100K.

So it'll only eclipse 2016 turnout by 16%? How horrendous.

Trump +10 in Nevada confirmed!

I don't think turnout for the Dems is bad, but I am curious as to how the turnout increases compare to the increases in turnout for the GOP from 2012-2016.

[jimrtex]

I'm not exactly sure how pledged "Party Leaders and Elected Officials" work when calculating statewide delegates, but I'm assuming they're just part of the regular pool. If not, I'll correct the numbers.

PLEO's are allocated separately from the At-Large delegates (5 and .

[Adam Griffin]

Do we know if a proportionate share of the early vote has been counted? Obviously precincts outstanding doesn't necessarily equal percentage of vote outstanding, but is there any reason to believe a greater share of EV than ED remains (since the way it was counted/collected was different)?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

With Buttigieg winning Lincoln County and very close in White Pine County, I would love to see a poll of Utah this week. I still think Sanders wins, but I have to imagine Buttigieg will be strong there. He might even be the candidate of the small number of Mormon Democrats.

Mormon Democrats are well known for being super liberal.

[beaver2.0]

I'm very amused by Steyer being ahead in Mineral County.  Anyone know how many precincts still have to report there?

[dax00]

I'm very amused by Steyer being ahead in Mineral County.  Anyone know how many precincts still have to report there?

3 precincts to report from Mineral. I also would be amused if Steyer manages to win there.

[Sorenroy]

I just want to reiterate something now that we're closing in on full results. The narrative that I've heard is that Sanders's performances in Iowa and New Hampshire were narrow wins and underperformances in states that should have been easy victories for him. I haven't heard that kind of narrative following Nevada, but I guess that comes with a nearly 2 to 1 win that collects about two thirds of the state's delegates.

Yet there seems to be some attempt by the Biden campaign and others to push a narrative of Nevada being the beginning of his big comeback. Even if this story takes hold, remember that this will because of that narrative and not actual results. Biden's big Nevada comeback comes from about a fifth of the state's voters and a fourth of its delegates. That's not exactly something to brag about. I made a similar post in the days following Iowa, in which Biden was saying that he was going to win Nevada and South Carolina, not come in a distant second.

I say all of this as someone who would much rather Biden be the "moderate lane" choice than any of the other three vying for that position. A Sanders-Biden race would be a much more meaningful decision for Democrats than a Sanders-Buttigieg or Sanders-Bloomberg race when it comes with deciding on party values. But this is certainly a shifting of the goal posts from as recently as 20 days ago when Nevada was going to be a Biden domination capable of pushing him back into the front of the pack.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Delegates

District 1: 3 safe Bernie, 1 leading Bernie, 1 safe Biden
District 2: 4 safe Bernie, 2 safe Pete
District 3: 3 safe Bernie, 1 safe Biden, 1 safe Pete, 1 leading Biden (Pete might get)
District 4: 3 safe Bernie, 2 safe Biden, 1 leading Bernie
PLEO: 3 safe Bernie, 1 safe Biden, 1 leading Biden (Pete or Bernie could get)
AL: 4 safe Bernie, 2 safe Biden, 2 leading Bernie (Pete could get one or both, Biden could get 1)

Total:
20 safe Bernie
4 leading Bernie

7 safe Biden
2 leading Biden

3 safe Pete

Note this was based upon 72% reporting numbers

If Warren is at 14% in CD 2, shouldn’t she be in contention to get a delegate there?  How can all 6 be safe for other candidates?

[Shadows]

Current results breakdown, to get a sense of what to expect.

Clark:
Bernie 48.7%
Biden 24.4%
Pete 11.8%
Warren 8.6%
Steyer 4.1%
Klob 2.2%

Washoe:
Bernie 44.3%
Biden 7.8%
Pete 17.3%
Warren 17.2%
Steyer 3.6%
Klob 9.8%

Rurals:
Bernie 35.9%
Biden 8.7%
Pete 25.0%
Warren 8.6%
Steyer 10.9%
Klob 10.8%

I wonder what would have happened if the Culinary Union wouldn't get involved. Biden would not even have hit 10% instead of 15% in the 1st vote & Bernie may well have touched 40%. Maybe all candidates would have been @ less than 15%.
 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Hot take: Bernie and Biden's demographic bases overlap more than you'd think.

[Devout Centrist]

I'm hearing time and time again the DNC should get rid of these Caucuses. It's actually not quite that simple. For example in Iowa to change the Caucus to a Primary there first needs to be a bill passed in the IA State Legislature to do that (and Republicans have a Majority there) and then it needs to be signed by Governor Reynolds to become Law (A POTUS Primary in IA is much more costly than a Caucus so Reynolds would probably veto it).

It's not that simple than you think.

The DNC could take a carrot and a stick approach.

Stick: You can keep your caucus, but you won't be first.

Carrot: You can have a firehouse primary, and take donations from the candidates to pay for it, or get the legislature to pay for it.

Or have the Party fund each state's primary, rather than putting the cost on them.

[NOVA Green]

Just got back from the Grand Kid B-Day Party....

Here is an updated map of precincts reporting by County....



We now have two additional Counties with 100% of the votes fully reported so now (4/16 Counties fully reporting 25.0%):

Final Alignment:

Churchill County:

2020:      (620 Attendance)

Sanders---   199 Votes       (32.1%)    -18.9% from '16>'20            31 County Delegates
Pete---         139 Votes       (22.4%)                                              18 County Delegates
Steyer---        91 Votes       (14.7%)                                              13 County Delegates
Biden---         85 Votes       (13.7%)                                               12 County Delegates
Amy---           63 Votes       (10.2%)                                               9 County Delegates
Warren---       48 Votes       (7.7%)                                                 8 County Delegates


2016:

Sanders---     46 Votes      (50%)
HRC---           46 Votes      (50%)

Lincoln County:

2020:     (47 Total Attendance)

Pete---         19 Votes      (40.4%)                        25 County Delegates
Bernie---      18 Votes      (38.3%)     (-1.6%)        24 County Delegates
Steyer--        7 Votes       (14.9%)                          6 County Delegates
Biden---        1 Vote        (2.1%)                            2 County Delegates
Warren---      1 Vote        (2.1%)                            1 County Delegate

2016:      (63 Total Attendance)

Sanders---    25 Votes    (39.7%)
HRC--          38 Votes     (60.3%)

[Antonio the Sixth]

So we're not getting the last 12% today, huh?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Meh, I can live with my second choice being the nominee.  Also, caucuses are dumb.

[NOVA Green]

So looking at the precinct map of Elko County, looking like 11/41 precincts outstanding are heavily concentrated around Elko, NV, which is the largest Pop Center of the County and also 20% Latino...

Would not be surprised to see Bernie gain against the Mayor here, once the last precincts are counted...

Most of the rurals reported, so....

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meh, I can live with my second choice being the nominee.  Also, caucuses are dumb.

Welcome on board, comrade!

[redjohn]

A seriously impressive win for Bernie. He really knocked it out of the park here, can't overstate the importance of this win. Iowa was a mess and his margin in NH was underwhelming, so a 26 point lead in SDEs is extremely damaging to every other campaign in the race.

Warren's moderating her tone on Bernie, knowing it's the end of the road. Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg will focus all their resources on stopping Bernie in the next week until ST, but it's probably far too late. Bernie's going to do very well on ST and that's the nomination.

[Fight for Trump]

I'm very amused by Steyer being ahead in Mineral County.  Anyone know how many precincts still have to report there?

Gilmentum

[It’s so Joever]

The caucuses were rigged against Pete, the DNC is secretly plotting with Rose Twitter!!!  

[Antonio the Sixth]

The caucuses were rigged against Pete, the DNC is secretly in loops with Rose Twitter!!!   

You're not funny.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So we're not getting the last 12% today, huh?

I was wrong!! Well, we got 8 of those 12% today. 182 more precincts reported (half of them from Washoe, the rest equally split between Clark and the rurals).

Here's what the CCDs for that batch looked like:
Bernie 43.2%
Pete 17.3%
Biden 13.7%
Warren 12.7%
Klob 8.2%
Steyer 4.4%

The delegate breakdown remains unchanged, 24-9-3. However, Bernie is now very close to netting another PLEO delegate from Biden. If the next batch is also subpar for Biden, it could shift to 25-8-3.

There are just 79 precincts left. 30 of them are in Clark (2.4%), 16 in Washoe (2.9%), and a whole 33 in the rurals (11.7%). I guess that means Bernie's share will again go down a notch, but Biden's will decline even more.

[dax00]

Bernie would need to make up 113 CCDs to win that 25th state delegate. I'm gonna call the task impossible. Safe to lock in the delegate count at 24-9-3