New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Crumpets]

Funny:

Pete actually was 2nd among non-White primary voters in NH.

2nd to Sanders, I presume? Can Pete now go into SC with the knowledge he has already out-performed Buden among non-whites in a primary?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

[Sorenroy]

Another disappointing morning for waking up to the news. I was bothered by the coverage of Iowa declaring a Buttigieg the out and out winner when there was no declared result and not all the precincts were in, but he did lead the state at that point among one of the three measures.

Waking up to NPRs top of the hour news and hearing that Buttigieg had a strong performance yesterday alongside Sanders, with the blurb being about a new Buttigieg South Carolinia endorsement with no mention that it wasn't a good performance alongside Sanders, it was a narrow loss seems almost intentionally misleading. How do you lead with the name of the second place candidate out of Iowa and never mention who won?

[Shadows]

Buttigieg campaign thanks to the mainstream elite media has done a brilliant job projecting a different face that what he is. He won among voters whose top issue is Climate Change & foreign policy & he is pretty weak to mediocre on both. Also people most concerned about beating Trump went to Pete & then Amy & those undecided people broke late.

Otherwise Sanders did very well in CD2 vs expectations & did brilliant with young voters & enough/reasonable among older/rural voters to win. The areas neighbouring Vermont & young voters didn't tunrout & give him a big enough lead. If that happened he would have won by 10-12%. He has to hammer home this electability thing otherwise this will go to a contested convention.

[Badger]

Again, Republicans are a cult of personality for Trump. What's new?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

So if we divide the current vote into factions...

Joe + Pete + Amy (Moderates): 53%

Bernie + Warren (Progressives): 35%

If it wasn't for the split in the moderate vote, Bernie wouldn't even be competitive.

Politics is never that simple, a lot of those Klobuchar second preferences are for Warren. Furthermore a lot of the younger Buttigeg supporters are not going to go to Biden or Amy and would go to Yang.

Given that Warren is closer to the end of the line than Amy, it's much easier to make the argument that many of those Warren voters actually belong to the former category.

[Badger]

Funny:

Pete actually was 2nd among non-White primary voters in NH.

All 12 of them?

I joke, but I think you can be safely assured that whatever exit poll you got that from the words small sample size should be repeated multiple times before making any pronouncements.

[President Johnson]

So, I congretulate Bernie on his hard fought but narrow victory. His speech had a unifying tone, what struck me positive.

It starts to look like Uncle Joe is done (just like Liz). Watching the race unfolding since Iowa, start leading towards Mike Bloomberg (stunning he won Dixville Notch by write-in votes). Mayor Pete had a great night, just as Amy Klobuchar, but I have to ask: What now? If they can't improve with African Americans and Latinos, they will have a hard time and Bloomberg could emerge as Bernie's main opponent.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1227701301095608320?s=20

[Matty]

That is a misleading way of looking at it when you consider NH has gained 90,000 voters since then

[Badger]

So did weld make the cut off for delegate eligibility?

[jimrtex]

Say it ain't so, Joe

'First In The Nation' Voting Site Under Scrutiny For Alleged Election Law Violations

The New Hampshire SOS results had results for Hale's Location (which is missing from both the CNN and DDHQ results) and I was trying to see if another township had initiated midnight bowling voting, when I came across this article from 2019.

*Joe in the headline is of course Shoeless Joe Jackson of the Black Sox scandal, and not Joe Biden who is (was?) running for president (I didn't want anyone to be calling me a lying dog-faced pony soldier)

[Beet]

Wow Republican turnout was huge, Trump got 151,000 votes in an uncontested primary, compared to Obama 61,000 in 2012 and Bush 67,000 in 2004.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1227709609114251266

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Beware: there are some really bad hot takes on Twitter about the turnout.

[jimrtex]

These are based on SOS results. CNN results are about the same, some less, some more, likely due to data entry errors. DDHQ has additional numbers, with overage varying somewhat by ease of spelling:

Bennet 12.50% more
Patrick 4.69%
Biden 1.18%
Yang 1.12%
Sanders 1/01%
Steyer 0.86%
Warren 0.65%
Klobuchar 0.58%
Gabbard 0.47%
Buttigieg 0.39%

Maybe election officials don't count "Amy" or "ButtPete" or "Tulsi" as valid write-ins.

There were 34 candidates on the ballot, in alphabetical order by last name, but with ballot rotation, and with first name first making it harder to scan for a particular candidate. For example, in Acwrworth the ballot began with:

Sam Sloan Bronx, New York
Tom Steyer San Francisco, California
David John Thistle The Woodlands, Texas
Thomas James Torgesen Saratoga, New York
Elizabeth Warren Cambridge, Massachusetts
Robby Wells Waynesboro, Georgia
Marianne Williamson Des Moines, Iowa
Andrew Yang New York, New York
Michael Bennet Denver, Colorado
Joseph R. Biden Wilmington, Del

Steve Burke, the best-placed no-name may have benefited from being before Buttigieg on most ballots.

"Scattering" is the same as write-in. A large share will be for Trump, who will finish ahead of Patrick and Bennet.

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Sanders	76350	25.60%
Buttigieg	72443	24.29%
Klobuchar	58773	19.70%
Warren	27427	9.19%
Biden	24911	8.35%
Steyer	10694	3.58%
Gabbard	9745	3.27%
Yang	8312	2.79%
Patrick	1258	0.42%
Bennet	984	0.33%
Sestak	190	0.06%
Booker	156	0.05%
Harris	128	0.04%
Williamson	99	0.03%
Burke	86	0.03%
Castro	83	0.03%
Delaney	83	0.03%
Koos	72	0.02%
Bullock	64	0.02%
Ellinger	57	0.02%
Thistle	53	0.02%
Kraus	52	0.02%
Wells	45	0.02%
Hewes	42	0.01%
Sloan	34	0.01%
Boyd	33	0.01%
Gleiberman	31	0.01%
Greenstein	31	0.01%
Torgesen	30	0.01%
Krichevsky	23	0.01%
Dunlap	12	0.00%
De La Fuente	11	0.00%
Moroz	8	0.00%
Scatter	5980	2.00%

[ElectionsGuy]

Impressive that Marrianne Williamson got more votes than Julian Castro and John Delaney.

[Sbane]

So if we divide the current vote into factions...

Joe + Pete + Amy (Moderates): 53%

Bernie + Warren (Progressives): 35%

If it wasn't for the split in the moderate vote, Bernie wouldn't even be competitive.

This is a ridiculous & nonsensical analysis given that a majority of voters in exit polls expressed support for Medicare for all & free college.

I agree that the analysis isn’t a great one, however many people can express support for M4A without actually agreeing with Bernies path to getting there. That explains the drop in support that happens in polling when you mention M4A eliminating private health insurance. Additionally, even if one may support Bernie’s approach to M4A, it does not mean that they support him. My mother, for example, supports Bernie’s M4A, but not his plan for the Green New Deal, Federal jobs guarantee, student loan cancellation, or  free college. She supports the concepts behind all these policies, but not the extreme amount of spending that they require. That’s why she supports Biden. She’s not a super informed voter either, but the “free everything” approach is a big turn off for her.

Yeah, my biggest issue with Bernie's healthcare plan has nothing that he supports universal healthcare (something I've supported for about 15 years or so).  Instead, it's that it completely eliminates private health insurance without giving folks who can afford it and prefer it to public healthcare the option to choose for themselves. I think everyone (especially the wealthy) should have to pay higher taxes to fund a public option regardless of whether they choose private or public healthcare. 

However, the idea of depriving folks who can afford a higher quality private healthcare plan of the right to choose that over a government plan is a non-starter for me and the only reason it doesn't make me a diehard #NeverBernie voter in the primary season is because there's no way he'd ever be able to get such a thing through Congress.  If a hypothetical President Sanders tried to do so, I'd certainly call and write every Democratic representative from my state to express my opposition to the proposal, as well as seriously consider donating to anyone with a real shot at successfully primarying any congressional Democrat who voted for it. 

Side note: Pete's line about how the meaning of M4A has changed is actually pretty spot on.  It used to be that people used it as a stand in for universal healthcare and recognized that there were tons of ways to potentially achieve that goal.  However, now many folks thing M4A means "eliminate all private healthcare and replace it with a mandatory government program" (i.e. the average person's perception of Bernie's healthcare plan).  As such, there's nothing inconsistent about having supported M4A four years ago and opposing what it has come to mean.  In fact, many Democrats have done just that.

My views on M4A almost verbatim.

Ditto under the condition that enrolling in a government run health plan would have little out of pocket costs. I don't want a two tiered health care system with a government plan becoming more of a high risk pool than it already is.

Absolutely agree with this.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1228075893236563969?s=20

[jimrtex]

This is an update which includes tabulated write-ins. The NHSOS tabulates write-ins in the Democratic primary for candidates on the Republican ballot, plus others. The lack of indication for Bloomberg and Romney simply indicates they were not on either ballot. This has a tad more votes for Democratic candidates. This may be late-arriving ballots, or perhaps provisionals.

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Sanders	76355	25.58%
Buttigieg	72445	24.27%
Klobuchar	58774	19.69%
Warren	27428	9.19%
Biden	24911	8.34%
Steyer	10694	3.58%
Gabbard	9745	3.26%
Yang	8312	2.78%
Bloomberg, x	4777	1.60%
Patrick	1266	0.42%
Trump, r	1219	0.41%
Bennet	984	0.33%
Sestak	190	0.06%
Scatter	161	0.05%
Booker	156	0.05%
Harris	129	0.04%
Williamson	99	0.03%
Burke	86	0.03%
Castro	83	0.03%
Delaney	83	0.03%
Koos	72	0.02%
Bullock	64	0.02%
Ellinger	57	0.02%
Thistle	53	0.02%
Kraus	52	0.02%
Wells	45	0.02%
Hewes	43	0.01%
Sloan	34	0.01%
Boyd	33	0.01%
Greenstein	31	0.01%
Gleiberman	30	0.01%
Torgesen	30	0.01%
Krichevsky	23	0.01%
Weld, r	16	0.01%
Dunlap	12	0.00%
De La Fuente	11	0.00%
Moroz	8	0.00%
Romney, x	7	0.00%
Kraft, r	2	0.00%
Matern, r	2	0.00%
Merrill, r	1	0.00%

[DINGO Joe]

Just for a point of reference, in 2016, Bernie won the R write-ins 2095-540 vs Hillary and Trump had 1795 write-ins on the D side that year.

Or looked at in total.  In 2016 D candidates got about 2600 votes in the R primary while R candidates got about 3200 in the D primary

This year D candidates got just under 5000 in the R while R candidates got 1235 in the D

[StateBoiler]

Always thought for states that allow it, serious presidential candidates should file for multiple parties' primaries. What better way to demonstrate real bipartisan support? Plus imagine the schadenfreude if say Trump actually qualified for a delegate in Milwaukee.

[cinyc]

Interactive map of the NH Republican Primary results, including heatmaps of vote cast for Democrats on the Republican ballot under the NH Minor/WI tab in the Menu, as of last night.

[jimrtex]

Interactive map of the NH Republican Primary results, including heatmaps of vote cast for Democrats on the Republican ballot under the NH Minor/WI tab in the Menu, as of last night.

Are write-ins generally stronger along the Connecticut River?

[cinyc]

Interactive map of the NH Republican Primary results, including heatmaps of vote cast for Democrats on the Republican ballot under the NH Minor/WI tab in the Menu, as of last night.

Are write-ins generally stronger along the Connecticut River?

Among other places. It's pretty much correlated with college towns and the general anti-Trump vote: