Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[jaichind]

Why would they even release 50 percent of results? Just wait until you have them all

It will just add to the chaos and it will look like they are trying to rush out results without having them all in. This is a total disaster.

I think they should have released cumulative unofficial results as they have it with the caveat that they are subject to change.  I am sure that any data quality issues they have it only applies to a small percentage of the precincts.   

[Mr. Illini]

Kudos to the Warren and Klobuchar campaigns keeping their mouths shut and awaiting the results.

Biden’s team questioning the validity of the results, Bernie’s team releasing “their” version of the results, and Pete full out declaring victory makes the three of them look like children.

The only folks who look like children in all of this are those in the Iowa Democratic Party leadership.

They do as well, but how you respond to something like this says a lot about you and the people working for you. I’m pretty appalled by how these candidates have responded.

[BlueSwan]

I joined this forum yesterday in order to get a better insight into the weird and wonderful thing that is an election in the US.

I was not disappointed, although I am a lot more confused.....

Welcome to the forum.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Just woke up. Big picture if we step back, Bernie is still getting the most delegates here except maybe for Buttigieg, Bernie is winning New Hampshire, and Buttigieg is NOT winning Nevada or South Carolina.

This is a huge win for Sanders. Biden is sinking, Buttigieg has a tough path to win states with black voters, and Klobuchar has a steep hill to climb to replace Biden as non-progressive frontrunner.

Not for long. There is no replacement for Biden as the "Stop Sanders" candidate. Buttigieg has no appeal to PoC, a billionaire can't win a D primary, Klobuchar is too far behind and Warren is unacceptable to the moderates and most big donors.

I think Warren actually could emerge as the "Stop Sanders" candidate.  She doesn't need the big donors when they can direct their money directly to anti-Sanders PACs, and if it's a choice between "capitalist to my bones" Warren and "socialist revolution" Sanders, I could see a lot of moderates falling in line.

I doubt that. I personally would probably support Sanders over Warren. I actually like Warren a lot but I think she is arguably the worst possible nominee against Trump, which is really all I care about.

Eh, that's debatable, of course.  I guess my main point is that, for lack of a better alternative, I could actually imagine "the establishment" reluctantly resigning themselves to supporting Warren if she were all that stood between Sanders and the nomination.

[Adam Griffin]

Glad to see Biden is in fifth in the first alignment data thus far, and only is in fourth in the final alignment b/c of Klobuchar having more issues with viability.

Jesus Christ: that was the biggest f[inks]k-up of the night, in truth.

[jaichind]

First Alignment:
Sanders 29.08
Buttigieg 21.63
Warren 19.51
Klobuchar 12.37
Biden 12.04

Final Alignment:
Sanders 29.4
Buttigieg 24.87
Warren 20.65
Biden 12.92
Klobuchar 11.18

The level of Sander<->Warren transfers seems less than one would expect.  The Warren-Sanders spat in the final debate seems to have cost both of them in picking up each other's support when they are not viable in a precincts.

[Ebsy]

So, I think the main takeaway from the Buttigieg numbers and the updated Sanders numbers is that they are in broad agreement. Sanders ahead considerably on the first alignment and final alignment, with SDEs extremely close between Sanders and Buttigieg near 28-29%. Finally, Biden crashing to an embarrassing 5th on the first alignment and unlikely to receive any DNC delegates from Iowa.

[Ljube]

I think the biggest problem here is proportional allocation.

Perhaps the Democrats should change the allocation system to winner takes all per CD or per county.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If true, my support for Biden is definitely wavering. 12% for the supposed frontrunner is pretty terrible, and Iowa wasn't outright hostile ground for him. Thing is none of the moderates are emerging from this looking solid (Buttigieg and Klobuchar aren't going to contend in a lot of the other state) so I'm not sure who to support if Biden keeps collapsing. While it's certainly dampened by the incompetence of IA Dems, this was definitely a win for the progressive wing. Ugh.

just go with ButtiPete. He might not do well among afro-americans, but he certainly would be a lot better than Biden and someone i can rally behind, which i'm not going to do if Biden becomes the nominee.

[brucejoel99]

Chalian noted something interesting on CNN just now:

It was actually Bernie Sanders who emphasized to change to a more "modern" reporting system after 2016, which led the Iowa Dem. Party to purchase this app.

So it seems the IA Dems + Bernie are to blame the most for this fail, Buttigieg certainly the least ...

You can't blame Bernie, because the modernization of reporting systems is a rightful demand and makes sense. The electoral process is not conducted by Bernie supporters, unless the party's organization has been coopted by 'radical socialists' and I haven't noticed. It's the party establishment the one who has failed miserably. Hopefully this fiasco will provoke a revolution in the Democratic base and Bernie supporters will take the Winter Palace in St Petersburg (sorry, I meant the White House in Washington)

Nobody is blaming Bernie for f**ks sake. It was the BernieBros who were quick to cook up some Buttigieg conspiracy theory.

Tender Branson did that a page ago. Most of the subsequent posts are people responding to that ya dingus.

No he didn’t, he pointed out an overlooked fact. He didn’t blame Sanders.

Quote from: Tender Branson on Today at 11:34:12 am

"So it seems the IA Dems + Bernie are to blame the most for this fail, Buttigieg certainly the least ..."

Ever heard of tongue-in-cheek or sarcasm? I would be extremely surprised if Tender actually thought Sanders was behind this fiasco. It was clearly a jab at the Buttigieg accusing Sandernistas.

Jesus Christ, you're trying so hard to do everything but admit that you maybe, just maybe, were flat-out wrong & it's just not working in anyway whatsoever.

I wasn’t wrong. You honestly think Tender believes Sanders to be behind this fiasco?

He literally said as much without so much as even a hint of sarcasm or tounge-in-cheekiness, so yes.

He said it in the context of page after page after page of BernieBros advancing nutjob conspiracy theories involving Buttigieg and vote rigging. It was clearly a jab at those people and not a serious accusation of Bernie. I suggest you ask Tender yourself if you don’t believe me.

And I suggest you learn the definition of the word "clearly."

[SN2903]

Biden could be finished if the Sanders internals are true.

[President Johnson]

An embarrassing mess this caucus is and certainly a laughingstock on the world stage. However, I don't see this diminishing Democratic chances for November. Nobody will care about this in a few weeks, much less will anybody change their vote in favor of Trump.

But I'm so disappointed Uncle Joe is apparently doing that poor. I even don't excuse this as him being "a bad fit" for the state's primary. Even if Iowa Democratic voters don't reflect his core base, he has been campaigning really hard and it didn't pay off. It's disappointing for sure because he's a fine person and would make a great president, but if he's connecting that poorly despite having served as vice president of a very popular president, whom he's friends with, then I have to admit that winning this nomination isn't happening. Let's see how February plays out. If Bernie is the nominee, I will support him because Trump needs to go and won't screw up that big. If Uncle Joe doesn't make it long into the primary, however, I'm going all in for Mike Bloomberg at first and Mayor Pete at second.

[OSR stands with Israel]

An embarrassing mess this caucus is and certainly a laughingstock on the world stage. However, I don't see this diminishing Democratic chances for November. Nobody will care about this in a few weeks, much less will anybody change their vote in favor of Trump.

But I'm so disappointed Uncle Joe is apparently doing that poor. I even don't excuse this as him being "a bad fit" for the state's primary. Even if Iowa Democratic voters don't reflect his core base, he has been campaigning really hard and it didn't pay off. It's disappointing for sure because he's a fine person and would make a great president, but if he's connecting that poorly despite having served as vice president of a very popular president, whom he's friends with, then I have to admit that winning this nomination isn't happening. Let's see how February plays out. If Bernie is the nominee, I will support him because Trump needs to go and won't screw up that big. If Uncle Joe doesn't make it long into the primary, however, I'm going all in for Mike Bloomberg at first and Mayor Pete at second.

Im gonna wait till SC to see if Biden is finished or not. I went back and looked back at threads from last time , and we all thought Trump was finished after Iowa as he nearly finished 3rd to Rubio. We all thought the nomination was gonna be Rubio vs Cruz then

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The college students turned out big, Hilary did better among college students than Biden did, obviously

[Ljube]

An embarrassing mess this caucus is and certainly a laughingstock on the world stage. However, I don't see this diminishing Democratic chances for November. Nobody will care about this in a few weeks, much less will anybody change their vote in favor of Trump.

But I'm so disappointed Uncle Joe is apparently doing that poor. I even don't excuse this as him being "a bad fit" for the state's primary. Even if Iowa Democratic voters don't reflect his core base, he has been campaigning really hard and it didn't pay off. It's disappointing for sure because he's a fine person and would make a great president, but if he's connecting that poorly despite having served as vice president of a very popular president, whom he's friends with, then I have to admit that winning this nomination isn't happening. Let's see how February plays out. If Bernie is the nominee, I will support him because Trump needs to go and won't screw up that big. If Uncle Joe doesn't make it long into the primary, however, I'm going all in for Mike Bloomberg at first and Mayor Pete at second.

Uncle Joe is a weak candidate.

[SN2903]

An embarrassing mess this caucus is and certainly a laughingstock on the world stage. However, I don't see this diminishing Democratic chances for November. Nobody will care about this in a few weeks, much less will anybody change their vote in favor of Trump.

But I'm so disappointed Uncle Joe is apparently doing that poor. I even don't excuse this as him being "a bad fit" for the state's primary. Even if Iowa Democratic voters don't reflect his core base, he has been campaigning really hard and it didn't pay off. It's disappointing for sure because he's a fine person and would make a great president, but if he's connecting that poorly despite having served as vice president of a very popular president, whom he's friends with, then I have to admit that winning this nomination isn't happening. Let's see how February plays out. If Bernie is the nominee, I will support him because Trump needs to go and won't screw up that big. If Uncle Joe doesn't make it long into the primary, however, I'm going all in for Mike Bloomberg at first and Mayor Pete at second.

Maybe they don't "change" their votes but it could turn a lot of people including democrats off from the process because it looks like peoples votes don't matter. I think democrats still struggle to stay unified this year just like 2016. There is no way to spin this but a plus for Trump. He just hit 49% in the Gallup poll. Things are clearly going his way right now and he seems to be breaking out of that 42 to 46% approval rut. I know sometimes my posts seem one sided but I do try my best to be objective. I honestly believe the democrats are headed in the wrong direction right now in terms of their messaging, their outreach to voters and their unwillingness to shift course after 2016. Everyone here has bias.

[Tender Branson]

Pete Buttigieg claims Iowa victory again

At his second official campaign stop of the day, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg again claimed victory in Iowa.

“We are still waiting for some math but we have arrived with momentum .... and we’ve arrived victorious,” Buttigieg told the crowd in New Hampshire.

This is the second time Buttigieg has declared victory. Buttigieg claimed victory while speaking to supporters on Monday night. "By all indications, we are going on to New Hampshire victorious," he said

In an interview with CNN today, Buttigieg cited his campaign's internal data from the caucuses.

Remember: The outcome of the Iowa Democratic caucuses remains unknown. Iowa Democratic Party Chair Troy Price told Democratic campaigns on a call that the "majority of results" will be released by 5 p.m. ET today, a source said.

...

Sanders says he's "disappointed" with how last night went

Sen. Bernie Sanders told reporters that he was “disappointed” with how last night went and said it is not good for democracy, especially for people who came out to caucus for the first time.

"Obviously, I am disappointed. I suspect I could speak for all the candidates all of their supporters and the people of Iowa, that the Iowa Democratic Party has not been able to come up with timely election results. I can't understand why that happened but it has happened," he said.

Sanders said it was wrong of Joe Biden's campaign to cast doubts on the results and added that it was wrong for Pete Buttigieg to declare victory last night. Sanders said he thinks turnout will be in line with 2016, and he wished it was higher. Asked how he thinks Iowa Democratic Party Chair Troy Price has handled the situation, Sanders said he has not been talking to Price, and that his senior adviser has.

Asked if he got any sleep last night, Sanders said “not enough.”

https://us.cnn.com/politics/live-news/iowa-caucuses-live-results-coverage-2020/index.html

Come on IA Dems ... let’s get this over with and declare Pete the rightful winner of this caucus.

[MABA 2020]

Can we put to bed the idea of Biden being the most electable now his probably come in fourth?

[Gass3268]

Nate Cohen makes a good point that rural areas are being really underreported right now in the publicly available data. I would expect Buttigieg to gain once we get everything.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1224767838973460480?s=20

[YE]

Come on IA Dems ... let’s get this over with and declare Pete the rightful winner of this caucus.

Based on what exactly? Because you want Pete to win?

[rob in cal]

The predictit numbers still are at around Bernie 69% to win Iowa, so not a lot of trust in his internals among the political bettors.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

I think one of the lesser mentioned, but important - and worrying - stories out of last night is the much lower than expected turnout. People predicted 2008 numbers or higher, we didn't even hit 2016. And with all these candidates?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The fact Buttigieg is confidently declaring victory while the Sanders campaign isn't doing much to dispute it leads me to think the victor was Pete.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Pete Buttigieg claims Iowa victory again

At his second official campaign stop of the day, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg again claimed victory in Iowa.

“We are still waiting for some math but we have arrived with momentum .... and we’ve arrived victorious,” Buttigieg told the crowd in New Hampshire.

This is the second time Buttigieg has declared victory. Buttigieg claimed victory while speaking to supporters on Monday night. "By all indications, we are going on to New Hampshire victorious," he said

In an interview with CNN today, Buttigieg cited his campaign's internal data from the caucuses.

Remember: The outcome of the Iowa Democratic caucuses remains unknown. Iowa Democratic Party Chair Troy Price told Democratic campaigns on a call that the "majority of results" will be released by 5 p.m. ET today, a source said.

...

Sanders says he's "disappointed" with how last night went

Sen. Bernie Sanders told reporters that he was “disappointed” with how last night went and said it is not good for democracy, especially for people who came out to caucus for the first time.

"Obviously, I am disappointed. I suspect I could speak for all the candidates all of their supporters and the people of Iowa, that the Iowa Democratic Party has not been able to come up with timely election results. I can't understand why that happened but it has happened," he said.

Sanders said it was wrong of Joe Biden's campaign to cast doubts on the results and added that it was wrong for Pete Buttigieg to declare victory last night. Sanders said he thinks turnout will be in line with 2016, and he wished it was higher. Asked how he thinks Iowa Democratic Party Chair Troy Price has handled the situation, Sanders said he has not been talking to Price, and that his senior adviser has.

Asked if he got any sleep last night, Sanders said “not enough.”

https://us.cnn.com/politics/live-news/iowa-caucuses-live-results-coverage-2020/index.html

Come on IA Dems ... let’s get this over with and declare Pete the rightful winner of this caucus.

Omg, you're so annoying. Pete isn't the winner. We still don't have the results.

[BlueSwan]

Can we put to bed the idea of Biden being the most electable now his probably come in fourth?

Not really. Caucuses are a really bad fit for candidates with lukewarm supporters. In a binary choice between the hairsniffer and the pussygrabber, I still think the hairsniffer is slightly favoured. I can’t say the same for the socialist.