Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/joshuakucera/status/1224372781820891137?s=20

[junior chįmp]

Trump wins 110% of the delegates and then Trump celebrates by golfing 38 under par 34 golf game

[Lisa's voting Biden]

So does NYT, Politico have their result pages up yet? From what I can tell the only results page is the one that pops up on Google search.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/joshuakucera/status/1224372781820891137?s=20

Ranch and pizza is a "traditional" meal? Yikes

[GeneralMacArthur]

Ranch and pizza is a "traditional" meal? Yikes

It's probably a play on Pizza Ranch which is a popular chain in Iowa

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

I think Bill Weld will run around 4% on a good night, and the President will get 93/94%. Trump will obviously get 100% of the delegates.

[Mr. Illini]

Ranch and pizza is a "traditional" meal? Yikes

It's probably a play on Pizza Ranch which is a popular chain in Iowa

Here in Illinois I know several people who put ranch on their pizza and occasionally I do so myself.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/joshuakucera/status/1224372781820891137?s=20

Awww, no overreacting to a small data point?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/joshuakucera/status/1224372781820891137?s=20

Awww, no overreacting to a small data point?

Nope, gonna have to wait a half hour for the first in-state satellite caucus to take place in Ottumwa at UFCW Local 230.

[Tender Branson]

Pete will win today.

The people will come out in droves from all corners.

When is the entrance poll coming ?

3am ?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/joshuakucera/status/1224372781820891137?s=20

Pizza with wine >>> lean Buttigieg

[Gass3268]

Important numbers to remember once we get tonight's enterance poll.

https://twitter.com/JZTessler/status/1224381944278016001?s=20

[Tender Branson]

There 3 Iowans caucusing in the Caucasus today.

3.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Politico's results thread is up
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/

[Dr. Arch]

Politico's results thread is up
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/

This website looks good. It's lightweight and informative, and ofc, MAPS.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

How absolutely glorious it would be for Biden to come in fourth.

They say there are "three tickets" out of Iowa. Besides McCain '08, no presidential candidate has won their nomination without AT LEAST getting in the top 3 in Iowa. If Biden gets fourth, I doubt that would mean good things for his political career.

I generally sort of believe the "three tickets out of Iowa" generalization.  But I wonder if one of those tickets tonight ends up essentially going to Bloomberg.  (Kind of like McCain in '08; he got one of the three tickets by skipping Iowa, while the other two went to Huckabee and Romney for finishing 1/2.)

[OBD]

Wait, so are the results going to come in like a typical election night, or will they all drop at once? Also, I'm going to be out for a lot of the evening, so when will the results come?

[SInNYC]

Apparently there is a cold front moving in on Iowa. It is forecast to be slightly below freezing, but it is fairly windy with a pretty significant wind chill.

Which candidate does a cold-weather caucus put at risk?

With a cold front moving in through Sunday night and into Monday, the day of the caucus, the same crowds drawn to the rallies may not be as eager to weather the cold to support their candidate.

...

In the past, weather played a role in shaking up voter turnout in the 2016 Iowa Caucus when a major snowstorm swept across the region, complicating travel conditions. At this caucus, Ted Cruz took the win over Donald Trump by three percentage points, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton took the win over Bernie Sanders, also by three percentage points.

Goldford told AccuWeather based off of 2016 stats, weather may factor into the age groups of voter turnout.

"Older folks might be a little more respectful of weather and especially bad weather conditions," Goldford said. "Kids think they're invulnerable. They'll go out at any time for any reason to any destination."

Goldford theorizes that since Biden's supporters skew older with little support from younger voters, bad or even dangerous weather conditions could have an impact on people who would otherwise turn out for him.

According to weather.com, it will be in the 30s tonight pretty much everywhere in IA. This is a warm winter day for IA,  though the NYC-based reporters will claim it is biting cold (NYC doesnt really get much cold weather, though locals think anything below 35 is frigid). The national media also doesnt recognize that snow on the ground in the upper midwest doesn't mean it snowed recently, since temperatures tend to stay below freezing through winter (though less so in recent years with global warming).

In short, nobody is staying home because of weather tonight.
Caveat: there might be some freezing drizzle in the southwest tonight, though it looks very minor right now.

[ProudModerate2]

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

How absolutely glorious it would be for Biden to come in fourth.

They say there are "three tickets" out of Iowa. Besides McCain '08, no presidential candidate has won their nomination without AT LEAST getting in the top 3 in Iowa. If Biden gets fourth, I doubt that would mean good things for his political career.

I generally sort of believe the "three tickets out of Iowa" generalization.  But I wonder if one of those tickets tonight ends up essentially going to Bloomberg.  (Kind of like McCain in '08; he got one of the three tickets by skipping Iowa, while the other two went to Huckabee and Romney for finishing 1/2.)

I can see that. However, I think that it's important to consider that Biden, Sanders, and Warren are still in play and will probably win the three tickets going into New Hampshire.

[Gass3268]

Satellite caucus #2 has started in Ottumwa, Iowa.

[Mr. Illini]

If you’re an Iowan living abroad and participate in a satellite caucus, is it on you to abstain from the Democrats Abroad primary? Or how does that work?

[SnowLabrador]

I'm very nervous for tonight, but also excited. This is going to affect the rest of the primary season.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1224389145864392707

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1224396054021443584

[Mr. Morden]

I will be otherwise occupied at 8pm Eastern when the caucuses start, and not on the forum.  But just as a reminder, for those who are new to this: Once the clock strikes 8pm Eastern and we have the official start of the caucuses, the networks will post their full entrance polls online, and while they don’t actually have the topline #s listed, you can easily figure out what the topline #s are using algebra.  (Easiest way is to average men and women, though I guess it would be a bit tilted towards the female # for Dem. caucuses because of the gender gap.)

Also, I’m still very curious to see if CNN and other TV networks are actually going to give us three sets of maps for the three sets of numbers (first alignment, final alignment, and SDEs), and otherwise how they’re going to handle these multiple #s.  Still not sure we know all that much about that.