International COVID-19 Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

Fewer than 500 total virus related deaths in the UK today, the lowest *weekday* figure since the end of March. On the face of it encouraging, the question now is if the government's recent confused and/or reckless actions bring along some sort of "second wave" in a few weeks.

[Tender Branson]

1 death here in the past 24 hours.

Recoveries once again outperformed new infections by 100, which means active cases dropped to just over 1.000

It could drop below 1.000 in the next days.

Only 50 people are left in intensive care units, from a peak of almost 300.

Hospitalizations in general are down from a peak of 1.300 to 300.

Ischgl, the infamous ski resort where tourists spread the Virus all over Europe, is now officially Corona-free (with the last person declared recovered today).

[PSOL]

Global trade to fall by record 27% due to Covid-19, says UN

Global trade is forecast to fall by a record 27% in the second quarter of the year after a slump in the export of cars, machine parts and oil.

The coronavirus pandemic has hit the supply and demand for products across the world leading to a severe decline in world trade, said Unctad, the United Nations organisation that tracks trade flows.

Almost every category of goods is expected to suffer a fall in trade over the coming months, adding to a 3% decline in the first quarter of the year.

[Silent Hunter]

Fewer than 500 total virus related deaths in the UK today, the lowest *weekday* figure since the end of March. On the face of it encouraging, the question now is if the government's recent confused and/or reckless actions bring along some sort of "second wave" in a few weeks.

I somehow doubt that it will; much of the pandemic is in care homes now. Also, with London likely having the highest overall infection rate in the UK, there's possibly a small degree of 'herd immunity' already in play.

[Silent Hunter]

Switzerland's borders with Austria, France and Germany will in theory be opening again on the 15th of June. Looks like a week in July sitting on a rainy beach in Brittany is back on!

Germany plans to reopen its borders with France, Switzerland and Austria then too; with full opening of the Luxembourg border this coming September.

[jaymichaud]

https://globalnews.ca/news/6938258/justin-trudeau-coronavirus-china-questions/

Well that shows you’re doing SOMETHING

[Tender Branson]

As I’ve said, there are only around 1.100 active positive cases in Austria left (14.000 have recovered).

Here the stunning part:

Half of the 1.100 active cases are now in Vienna (~550).

Styria second with ca. 190 and Lower Austria third with 150 cases.

There was a major outbreak at a postal office in Lower Austria the last days with 30 of 300 employees testing positive (the majority of them residents of Vienna).

[T'Chenka]

https://globalnews.ca/news/6938258/justin-trudeau-coronavirus-china-questions/

Well that shows you’re doing SOMETHING

FF move by Trudeau. Show that you are displeased with China and won't kiss their butt, but also don't go on a huge unhinged twitter rants about it at 3AM.

[Tender Branson]

Overmortality has ended in Austria with calendar week 18 (April 27-May 3):



There were 1.468 deaths in Austrian towns during that week, while the 2016-19 average for the same week was 1467.5 deaths.

That means mortality is back to normal.

Between the weeks of March 16 and April 26, there was overmortality of some 13%.

[Tender Branson]

Today's update once again shows a favourable development:

~60 new cases, but 120 recoveries.

Active cases just above 1.000 and could drop below 1.000 tomorrow.

The 60 new infections are virtually in 3 states only: Vienna, Lower Austria, Styria.

The other 6 states have only a handful active cases or people in hospitals remaining.

Burgenland, Carinthia, Salzburg and Vorarlberg had no new case in more than a week.

[Silent Hunter]

Germany's R figure has dropped to 0.81 (0.66-0.97 95% interval) with 13 states reporting less than 100 new infections with 12 of those below 50; only Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia are above that figure. 5 states are reporting single digit increases.

[palandio]

According to the Spanish ministry of health based on a study of 36,000 households with 90,000 persons, the real number of people in Spain that has at some point been infected by Covid-19, is estimated to be ca. 2.3 million, i.e. ca. 5% of the population and ca. ten times the number of positively tested persons.

[Helsinkian]

Sweden takes the lead in daily deaths per capita. Nevertheless, Tegnell's ego will probably never allow him to admit to mistakes.

https://twitter.com/mikaellindstro2/status/1260966982935097348

[President Johnson]

Number of (official) active cases in Germany further goes down:

Infections confirmed: 174,284
Deaths: 7,868
Recovered: 150,300
Active cases: 16,116

The federal government this week also increased benefits for employees with reduced working time and passed a tax-free one-time bonus payment of 1000€ for healthcare workers.

[Tender Branson]

FYI:

All restaurants and churches/mosques/synagogues etc. in Austria will be open again tomorrow.

All schools on Monday (graduating classes already went to school since early May + kindergarten kids).

Summer tourism will likely be given the OK next month.

[Tender Branson]

Today's update from my state, Salzburg, looks extremely favourable:

* No new infections in about 2 weeks.
* Just 19 active cases left in the state (-8 since yesterday) and 15 of the 19 are in hospital.
* The number of deaths in the state (37) has not risen since 3 days.

Of the 19 active cases remaining:

8 are in the Flachgau district
8 are in the Pongau district
2 are in the Pinzgau district (where I live)
1 is in the Tennengau district

The capital Salzburg and the Lungau district have no known cases left.

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/themen/gesundheit/corona-virus

[kaoras]

Chile health system is nearing collapse.

New infections are out of control in the capital and the government finally declared quarantine for all the Greater Santiago area, after 27k cases. It previously had tried with "dynamic" and short quarantines just for certain areas, which predictably failed given that the borders between the districts of Santiago are very arbitrary.

Laboratories are running out of the reactive needed for the tests, and Santiago intensive care units are at almost 90% capacity. Today some patients had to be moved to Concepción, a city 500 km south of Santiago. The situation is very dire.

[Velasco]

According to the Spanish ministry of health based on a study of 36,000 households with 90,000 persons, the real number of people in Spain that has at some point been infected by Covid-19, is estimated to be ca. 2.3 million, i.e. ca. 5% of the population and ca. ten times the number of positively tested persons.

This is a prevalence three or four times lower than expected and there is a great difference between regions. While Madrid, the Castillas or Catalonia might have a prevalence around 15%, places like Asturias, Murcia or the Canary Islands (my region) hardly reach 2%. This is bad news if you think about "herd immunity" and reveals a vast majority of the population is vulnerable, which means deescalation is surrounded by many threats. Summer is around the corner and we are anxious to go outside, either to the beach or to have a beer with our friends...

 At least two members of my family (the ones who have been tested so far) were infected sometime and have developed immunity

[T'Chenka]

Chile health system is nearing collapse.

New infections are out of control in the capital and the government finally declared quarantine for all the Greater Santiago area, after 27k cases. It previously had tried with "dynamic" and short quarantines just for certain areas, which predictably failed given that the borders between the districts of Santiago are very arbitrary.

Laboratories are running out of the reactive needed for the tests, and Santiago intensive care units are at almost 90% capacity. Today some patients had to be moved to Concepción, a city 500 km south of Santiago. The situation is very dire.

God bless and good luck. This is terrible.

[urutzizu]

With Germany today, now all Official Q1 (Jan-Mar) GDP numbers released:
UK: -2.0%
Germany: -2.2%
Italy: -4.7%
Spain: -5.2%
France: -5.8%

UK damage will probably be a bit higher because UK was hit later by Virus. Still trend clear, existing social inequalities (north-south) in Europe will get even worse. Not good for EU, if it does not agree to further integration. Tecne Poll in Italy shows 49% want to leave EU, basically reversing Brexit pro-EU consolidation on the Continent.

[Mike88]

With Germany today, now all Official Q1 (Jan-Mar) GDP numbers released:
UK: -2.0%
Germany: -2.2%
Italy: -4.7%
Spain: -5.2%
France: -5.8%

UK damage will probably be a bit higher because UK was hit later by Virus. Still trend clear, existing social inequalities (north-south) in Europe will get even worse. Not good for EU, if it does not agree to further integration. Tecne Poll in Italy shows 49% want to leave EU, basically reversing Brexit pro-EU consolidation on the Continent.

Portuguese economy also falls: -2.4% annually, and -3.9% compared with 2019 Q4.

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1261218054727401472

[Tender Branson]

Quarter 1 was a joke compared to what Q2 numbers will look like.

Q2 numbers will show economic declines of 15-25% in each country ...

[CumbrianLefty]

Chile health system is nearing collapse.

New infections are out of control in the capital and the government finally declared quarantine for all the Greater Santiago area, after 27k cases. It previously had tried with "dynamic" and short quarantines just for certain areas, which predictably failed given that the borders between the districts of Santiago are very arbitrary.

Laboratories are running out of the reactive needed for the tests, and Santiago intensive care units are at almost 90% capacity. Today some patients had to be moved to Concepción, a city 500 km south of Santiago. The situation is very dire.

Another terrible right-populist leader reaping the whirlwind.

[Tender Branson]

The Red Cross is shutting down their drive-thru test station at the Red Bull Arena in Salzburg because of „extremely low demand“ ...

There are only around 15 active cases left here in the state and no new infections for 2 weeks.

[palandio]

According to the Spanish ministry of health based on a study of 36,000 households with 90,000 persons, the real number of people in Spain that has at some point been infected by Covid-19, is estimated to be ca. 2.3 million, i.e. ca. 5% of the population and ca. ten times the number of positively tested persons.

This is a prevalence three or four times lower than expected and there is a great difference between regions. While Madrid, the Castillas or Catalonia might have a prevalence around 15%, places like Asturias, Murcia or the Canary Islands (my region) hardly reach 2%. This is bad news if you think about "herd immunity" and reveals a vast majority of the population is vulnerable, which means deescalation is surrounded by many threats. Summer is around the corner and we are anxious to go outside, either to the beach or to have a beer with our friends...

 At least two members of my family (the ones who have been tested so far) were infected sometime and have developed immunity

Obviously the prevalence is stronger among individuals who are more susceptible to infection due to biological reasons and/or a high number of (possibly inevitable) contacts. Hence in the sense of "herd immunity" 15% is clearly better than nothing, because it's not a random 15%, but a 15% that can be expected to be on average more susceptible and more exposed than the remaining 85%.

That being said in most areas not only in Spain the numbers are far lower (<5%), which seems logical because the strategy was that as few as possible would get infected. On the other hand sadly some of the most vulnerable sectors (nursing homes, hospitals) were difficult to protect, so that infection rates there are disproportionately high.