2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1468804549439799301


Why can PA legislators just not draw a simple map?

Search up the 2011 PA senate Democratic proposal. Its so ugly it actually makes the GOP map look good.

[GALeftist]

That 17th actually made me burst out laughing. Incredible stuff. Obviously doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of passing, though, I'm pretty sure Republicans need 23 Democrats in the House to override a veto and there are only 24 total in Philly. Even if they cleared that bar, it would be struck down by the Supreme Court in a heartbeat. Of course, it will not clear that bar. It will probably receive zero Democratic votes in the House and, at best, one in the Senate from Mr. Sharif Street.

[lfromnj]

That 17th actually made me burst out laughing. Incredible stuff. Obviously doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of passing, though, I'm pretty sure Republicans need 23 Democrats in the House and there are only 24 total in Philly. Even if they cleared that bar, it would be struck down by the Supreme Court in a heartbeat. Of course, it will not clear that bar. It will probably receive zero Democratic votes in the House and, at best, one in the Senate from Mr. Sharif Street.

Its Peak PA legislators being dumb for no purpose. Look at my fair map which achieves the exact same partisan outcome.

Anyway the map is pretty bad. although  surprisingly close to an actually fair map. Only differences is Scott Perry gets a 100% Safe district and Houlahan gets shored up.

edit: Never mind I found out why, its because Kelly lives in Butler in Butler County.

[lfromnj]

http://www.politicspa.com/dems-release-their-own-congressional-map/30151/

Found the source for the PA 2011 Democratic proposal


This is a work of art.

I think 10 counties were NOT SPLIT.

[If my soul was made of stone]

http://www.politicspa.com/dems-release-their-own-congressional-map/30151/

Found the source for the PA 2011 Democratic proposal


Jesus christ.

I think 10 counties were NOT SPLIT.

The district shapes are self-evidently hilarious, but the underlying assumptions regarding partisanship are equally risible in hindsight. Grouping Harrisburg and Reading in with the entirety of Schuylkill, combining even the parts of Chester that were safely Dem then with deep Amish country, using Delaware and parts of Philadelphia to "shore up" Montgomery, an incarnation of the 12th that makes Old Man Murtha's '00s seat look like an exemplar of clean lines and COI preservation–holy Diana, imagine what a clusterf-ck the rest of the decade would've been under this map!

[lfromnj]

http://www.politicspa.com/dems-release-their-own-congressional-map/30151/

Found the source for the PA 2011 Democratic proposal


Jesus christ.

I think 10 counties were NOT SPLIT.

The district shapes are self-evidently hilarious, but the underlying assumptions regarding partisanship are equally risible in hindsight. Grouping Harrisburg and Reading in with the entirety of Schuylkill, combining even the parts of Chester that were safely Dem then with deep Amish country, using Delaware and parts of Philadelphia to "shore up" Montgomery, an incarnation of the 12th that makes Old Man Murtha's '00s seat look like an exemplar of clean lines and COI preservation–holy Diana, imagine what a clusterf-ck the rest of the decade would've been under this map!

Schuykill gets to stay whole because Tim Holden always landslided over there FYI.

[If my soul was made of stone]

http://www.politicspa.com/dems-release-their-own-congressional-map/30151/

Found the source for the PA 2011 Democratic proposal


Jesus christ.

I think 10 counties were NOT SPLIT.

The district shapes are self-evidently hilarious, but the underlying assumptions regarding partisanship are equally risible in hindsight. Grouping Harrisburg and Reading in with the entirety of Schuylkill, combining even the parts of Chester that were safely Dem then with deep Amish country, using Delaware and parts of Philadelphia to "shore up" Montgomery, an incarnation of the 12th that makes Old Man Murtha's '00s seat look like an exemplar of clean lines and COI preservation–holy Diana, imagine what a clusterf-ck the rest of the decade would've been under this map!

Schuykill gets to stay whole because Tim Holden always landslided over there FYI.

I know that it was kept whole in the '10s version of what became Cartwright's seat for this reason, but there it was packed with much more dense Dem turf. Combined here with all of the GOP turf in Dauphin and Berks, as well as parts of Carbon that were also about to collapse, it makes one wince in hindsight.

I have no idea what the 4th is trying to accomplish. Was it supposed to be a swing seat between combining the bits of Mercer, Lawrence, Beaver, and Washington that were still fairly Dem at the time with all of that other noise?

[sting in the rafters]

TBH this map isn't bad outside of that western district.

-1.splitting the Harrisburg metro four ways
-2.splitting Philadelphia four ways
-3.splitting Montgomery four ways
-4.pairing Harrisburg proper with counties in the f-cking Northern Tier
-5.pairing Lehigh and Northampton with anything but the Stroudsburgs and their environs, let alone Carbon
-ridiculous amounts of arbitrary county splits, some of which make the portions of counties in certain seats non-contiguous

This map is a cerebral hemorrhage and a half any way you slice it.

1. What is the Harrisburg metro? Anyway yeah its bad
2. 2 of these are quite microchops and Philly gets 2 proper districts nested
3. Smaller chops  and I don't like it but we are talking about 1 township for one of these(Northern Bucks) Rotations should be relatively possible for this map. One of the chops seems to be for putting Cheltenham with PA03 likely to keep the black population up while increasing the black population of PA02.
5. No putting those 2 with Carbon is perfect. That's literally what the Lehigh valley is.

I'd define the Harrisburg metro for COI purposes as being all but the rural northern extremes of Dauphin + Mechanicsburg and everything east of it in Cumberland.

The line of demarcation here is Blue Mountain, the western and southernmost ridge of the Appalachians. The municipalities south of there have more in common with the suburban/exurban sprawl spanning west into the more pastoral meadows of Cumberland. Everything past that ridge is obviously much more agrarian and has the cultural history of natural resources-based economies.

In this regard I'd argue York/Harrisburg/Carlisle all form a shared community of mid-sized former industrial centers in the Lower Susquehanna Valley, especially considering they share athletic conferences/a sizable service economy. Granted, some of that classification is a product of it now being possible to draw a highly-competitive district along the southern Susquehanna but that's more of a function of the population growth/knowledge economy in the region than any specific gerrymandering impetus.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1469024043760291853

https://mobile.twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1469012034104741889

Wasserman framing is a bit too aggressive. National dems may not support it but it does give Houlahan a better district than I think the court will do.
In exchange Rs get a few extra points into the Pittsburgh district and get to nuke Harrisburg

[Antonio the Sixth]

Holy sh*t. PA Democrats are gonna be spineless morons once again aren't they

[Sol]

If PA Dems want to replace Boyle with Street, it's pretty easy to make both Philly districts Black influence without all the other ugliness (and honestly they should--pretty messed up currently to be honest).

[lfromnj]

If PA Dems want to replace Boyle with Street, it's pretty easy to make both Philly districts Black influence without all the other ugliness (and honestly they should--pretty messed up currently to be honest).

Well that would mean outer Montco goes with Berks making a swing seat. It seems the main goal is more to protect Houlahan while giving up Lambs seat(which would sorta happen anyway in a fair map but with certain preferences from Mike Kelly.) However in exchange for those preferences they place Indiana college instead to keep it at the same partisan level.  After that Perry just gets to stay secure.

Also Fitz gets a marginally better district I guess but the shift is quite small.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If PA Dems want to replace Boyle with Street, it's pretty easy to make both Philly districts Black influence without all the other ugliness (and honestly they should--pretty messed up currently to be honest).

Well that would mean outer Montco goes with Berks making a swing seat. It seems the main goal is more to protect Houlahan while giving up Lambs seat(which would sorta happen anyway in a fair map but with certain preferences from Mike Kelly.) However in exchange for those preferences they place Indiana college instead to keep it at the same partisan level.  After that Perry just gets to stay secure.

Also Fitz gets a marginally better district I guess but the shift is quite small.

Uh this map shifts literally every remotely competitive district towards the GOP. To some degree this was kinda expected as Philly burns would have to be pushed further out, but still stuff like that Harrisburg chop is inexcusable. Just generally the map is really ugly and weird even where there isn’t partisan intent

[Mr.Phips]

If PA Dems want to replace Boyle with Street, it's pretty easy to make both Philly districts Black influence without all the other ugliness (and honestly they should--pretty messed up currently to be honest).

Well that would mean outer Montco goes with Berks making a swing seat. It seems the main goal is more to protect Houlahan while giving up Lambs seat(which would sorta happen anyway in a fair map but with certain preferences from Mike Kelly.) However in exchange for those preferences they place Indiana college instead to keep it at the same partisan level.  After that Perry just gets to stay secure.

Also Fitz gets a marginally better district I guess but the shift is quite small.

What would the 2020 Presidential numbers be for the Houlihan seat?

[lfromnj]

If PA Dems want to replace Boyle with Street, it's pretty easy to make both Philly districts Black influence without all the other ugliness (and honestly they should--pretty messed up currently to be honest).

Well that would mean outer Montco goes with Berks making a swing seat. It seems the main goal is more to protect Houlahan while giving up Lambs seat(which would sorta happen anyway in a fair map but with certain preferences from Mike Kelly.) However in exchange for those preferences they place Indiana college instead to keep it at the same partisan level.  After that Perry just gets to stay secure.

Also Fitz gets a marginally better district I guess but the shift is quite small.

What would the 2020 Presidential numbers be for the Houlihan seat?

Probably only a few points right of the current seat.(Biden +17). Should still be safe for her unless it absolutely collapses. IMO the court map will do a lot for that Western PA seat and keep the Harrisburg York seat but I don't think the special master will go as far to do that tri chop of Berks to secure Houlahan. Along with that consider there is like 2 D state reps from that Harrisburg district and no state senators.

[Mr.Phips]

If PA Dems want to replace Boyle with Street, it's pretty easy to make both Philly districts Black influence without all the other ugliness (and honestly they should--pretty messed up currently to be honest).

Well that would mean outer Montco goes with Berks making a swing seat. It seems the main goal is more to protect Houlahan while giving up Lambs seat(which would sorta happen anyway in a fair map but with certain preferences from Mike Kelly.) However in exchange for those preferences they place Indiana college instead to keep it at the same partisan level.  After that Perry just gets to stay secure.

Also Fitz gets a marginally better district I guess but the shift is quite small.

What would the 2020 Presidential numbers be for the Houlihan seat?

Probably only a few points right of the current seat.(Biden +17). Should still be safe for her unless it absolutely collapses. IMO the court map will do a lot for that Western PA seat and keep the Harrisburg York seat but I don't think the special master will go as far to do that tri chop of Berks to save Houlahan. Along with that consider there is like 2 D state reps from that Harrisburg district and no state senators.

Possible Wolf could actually agree to this map.  If I were Dems, I’d propose to throw Cartwright under the bus to give Wild a safer district.  That would be a pretty fair 10R-7D map.

[lfromnj]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-draft-pa-congressional-map-could-boost-the-philly-democrat-helping-draw-it-e2-80-94-but-hurt-his-party/ar-AAREIPv?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Street criticized those in the party who want to split Pittsburgh to draw two safe Democratic seats. Street said that would lower the chances that a progressive like state Rep. Summer Lee — the first Black woman elected to the legislature from Western Pennsylvania who is now running for Congress — could win a congressional seat.

“Black women, we say, are the backbone of the Democratic Party,” Street said. But some Democrats, he said, “want me to make changes to a district in a way to disempower the most successful Black female politician in the history of Western Pennsylvania. They want me to disempower her.”

[lfromnj]

One thing I don't get is if you are willing to do a small 3rd chop of Alleghany after the 4 SWPA counties why not just do it where Reschentaler lives to place him in his own district?

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Sharif Street is such an opportunist. Funny that he's working on carving out a Congressional district to run in while also currently "exploring" a run for Senate where he's gained no traction and done practically no campaigning. If any Senate candidate deserves a seat carved out specifically for them, it's Malcolm Kenyatta.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-draft-pa-congressional-map-could-boost-the-philly-democrat-helping-draw-it-e2-80-94-but-hurt-his-party/ar-AAREIPv?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Street criticized those in the party who want to split Pittsburgh to draw two safe Democratic seats. Street said that would lower the chances that a progressive like state Rep. Summer Lee — the first Black woman elected to the legislature from Western Pennsylvania who is now running for Congress — could win a congressional seat.

“Black women, we say, are the backbone of the Democratic Party,” Street said. But some Democrats, he said, “want me to make changes to a district in a way to disempower the most successful Black female politician in the history of Western Pennsylvania. They want me to disempower her.”

Honestly this is one of the dumbest things I've heard. Firstly pairing downtown Pitts with redder suburbs around it would actually increase the chances of a progressive black Dem winning a primary because more suburban white voters would vote in the R primary. Secondly if you can't win a Biden + 20 seat that means you have a serious issue. Also I don't think most Dems are saying to create 2 Biden + 15 seats that split Pittsburg down the middle, but rather to do 1 safe D seat and 1 narrow Biden seat. Surely Biden + 30 PA-15 has votes to give.

This feels like Maryland 2.0 where individual politician wants get in the way of doing for the "greater good of the party". I suspect this won't fly well with national Dems.

[GALeftist]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-draft-pa-congressional-map-could-boost-the-philly-democrat-helping-draw-it-e2-80-94-but-hurt-his-party/ar-AAREIPv?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Street criticized those in the party who want to split Pittsburgh to draw two safe Democratic seats. Street said that would lower the chances that a progressive like state Rep. Summer Lee — the first Black woman elected to the legislature from Western Pennsylvania who is now running for Congress — could win a congressional seat.

“Black women, we say, are the backbone of the Democratic Party,” Street said. But some Democrats, he said, “want me to make changes to a district in a way to disempower the most successful Black female politician in the history of Western Pennsylvania. They want me to disempower her.”

Don't understand this point. No one thinks Pittsburgh is being split, and you don't even need to do that to draw a second Biden Seat. Summer Lee would also be more than capable of winning a safe or likely D Allegheny seat as long as it includes Braddock. Really, you should just give PA-17 Beaver and as much of Butler as it needs and then the debate should be on whether the 17th gets more of western Allegheny for a competitive R district or eastern Allegheny for a true tossup. People are mad at Street's 17th because A. it's hideous and B. its hideousness makes it more R than either of the saner alternatives.

[lfromnj]

If PA Dems want to replace Boyle with Street, it's pretty easy to make both Philly districts Black influence without all the other ugliness (and honestly they should--pretty messed up currently to be honest).

I think the Boyle with Street is probably more personal support which the GOP just goes along with because Street is the negotiator along with the fact it allows them to put East Philly with Bucks. East Philly is where Boyle lives FWIW. It's nothing major. The 2nd black seat would certainly mess up the entire delegation in SEPA.

[Zaybay]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-draft-pa-congressional-map-could-boost-the-philly-democrat-helping-draw-it-e2-80-94-but-hurt-his-party/ar-AAREIPv?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Street criticized those in the party who want to split Pittsburgh to draw two safe Democratic seats. Street said that would lower the chances that a progressive like state Rep. Summer Lee — the first Black woman elected to the legislature from Western Pennsylvania who is now running for Congress — could win a congressional seat.

“Black women, we say, are the backbone of the Democratic Party,” Street said. But some Democrats, he said, “want me to make changes to a district in a way to disempower the most successful Black female politician in the history of Western Pennsylvania. They want me to disempower her.”

Honestly this is one of the dumbest things I've heard. Firstly pairing downtown Pitts with redder suburbs around it would actually increase the chances of a progressive black Dem winning a primary because more suburban white voters would vote in the R primary. Secondly if you can't win a Biden + 20 seat that means you have a serious issue. Also I don't think most Dems are saying to create 2 Biden + 15 seats that split Pittsburg down the middle, but rather to do 1 safe D seat and 1 narrow Biden seat. Surely Biden + 30 PA-15 has votes to give.

This feels like Maryland 2.0 where individual politician wants get in the way of doing for the "greater good of the party". I suspect this won't fly well with national Dems.

Ah, so they're redistricting?

To put it simply, the idea that redistricting is about the interests of the whole party or national party is woefully inaccurate. Most of it comes down to the arbitrary interests of the members, and the whims of random folks in the party apparatus, from the interests of the donors wanting to be in a certain district, to the interest of the chair looking out for their favorites, to the interests of the racial caucuses looking out for more or safer seats, etc.

And if the other maps passed so far from both party say anything, its that the state parties don't give a hoot on what the national party wants.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Wolf better veto this map

[GALeftist]

And if the other maps passed so far from both party say anything, its that the state parties don't give a hoot on what the national party wants.

I wouldn't go that far. I mean, Nevada Democrats cracked Hispanics three ways to get three Lean D seats, to the detriment of one of their incumbents and the prospect of a Hispanic-influence seat. North Carolina, Oregon and Illinois all went pretty hard and New Mexico and Tennessee look like they will as well, which again can't really be explained by incumbent protection like Maryland, Ohio, Texas, or Florida. Partisan advantage is not the be all end all – we can see that in Maryland and Florida especially – but it's definitely playing a larger role than it did in 2010, and I'd be pretty surprised if the PA Democrats allow an own goal like this.