2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Devils30]

I don’t know why Dems aren’t trying to get Republicans to agree to an independent redistricting commission here given the Damocles sword of the state Supreme Court drawing a Dem gerrymander of the legislature otherwise.

Or are Dems just too stupid to think ahead (2031) here?

Dems should get the PA Supreme Ct to gerrymander at least one state leg. branch. That is the best way to put a quick end to Trump's post-2024 loss shenanigans before it begins.

[Mr.Phips]

I don’t know why Dems aren’t trying to get Republicans to agree to an independent redistricting commission here given the Damocles sword of the state Supreme Court drawing a Dem gerrymander of the legislature otherwise.

Or are Dems just too stupid to think ahead (2031) here?

Dems should get the PA Supreme Ct to gerrymander at least one state leg. branch. That is the best way to put a quick end to Trump's post-2024 loss shenanigans before it begins.

Even then the state legislature still probably wouldn’t flip in 2022.  Unless they baconstripped a bunch of suburban Philly and Pittsburgh districts into the city.

[lfromnj]

I don’t know why Dems aren’t trying to get Republicans to agree to an independent redistricting commission here given the Damocles sword of the state Supreme Court drawing a Dem gerrymander of the legislature otherwise.

Or are Dems just too stupid to think ahead (2031) here?

Dems should get the PA Supreme Ct to gerrymander at least one state leg. branch. That is the best way to put a quick end to Trump's post-2024 loss shenanigans before it begins.

Even then the state legislature still probably wouldn’t flip in 2022.  Unless they baconstripped a bunch of suburban Philly and Pittsburgh districts into the city.

Its also a bipartisan commision although the tiebreaker is appointed by the PA Supreme Court. He doesn't seem like a full hack though. Dems have ok geography in the state senate actually but   they would need to start winning that Erie seat which as of far they can not. And the Erie seat can't really be made much more blue.  There is a small college town in the outskirts of the county but it just would shift it a bit left.

[Mr.Phips]

I don’t know why Dems aren’t trying to get Republicans to agree to an independent redistricting commission here given the Damocles sword of the state Supreme Court drawing a Dem gerrymander of the legislature otherwise.

Or are Dems just too stupid to think ahead (2031) here?

Dems should get the PA Supreme Ct to gerrymander at least one state leg. branch. That is the best way to put a quick end to Trump's post-2024 loss shenanigans before it begins.

Even then the state legislature still probably wouldn’t flip in 2022.  Unless they baconstripped a bunch of suburban Philly and Pittsburgh districts into the city.

Its also a bipartisan commision although the tiebreaker is appointed by the PA Supreme Court. He doesn't seem like a full hack though. Dems have ok geography in the state senate actually but   they would need to start winning that Erie seat which as of far they can not. And the Erie seat can't really be made much more blue.  There is a small college town in the outskirts of the county but it just would shift it a bit left.

The Dem incumbent really should have never lost the Erie seat in the first place in 2016.  Even Hillary won that district.

[wbrocks67]

Here's my attempt to make a fair as possible PA map. It's 10 Trump - 7 Clinton composition. I'm pretty confidant that Biden won PA-1 in 2020. So if one day DRA adds the 2020 prez data, it would become a 9R - 8D map. No city/town is split except for Philly.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/03a2ccc7-f995-4b96-a54b-68aefbdbe42e

A 9R-8D map is not fair though.

I'm confused as to how Dems get screwed in this when all of their areas had population growth and nearly every R area had population loss? Rs should be losing a district, not Ds.

[Sol]

Here's my attempt to make a fair as possible PA map. It's 10 Trump - 7 Clinton composition. I'm pretty confidant that Biden won PA-1 in 2020. So if one day DRA adds the 2020 prez data, it would become a 9R - 8D map. No city/town is split except for Philly.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/03a2ccc7-f995-4b96-a54b-68aefbdbe42e

A 9R-8D map is not fair though.

I'm confused as to how Dems get screwed in this when all of their areas had population growth and nearly every R area had population loss? Rs should be losing a district, not Ds.

Republicans will essentially lose a district from the middle of the state, which forces all the districts on the edges to move in. And that's bad news for PA-7, PA-8, and PA-17, which all would likely have to take in deeply deeply Republican territory on even a fair map. A fair map likely makes the latter 2 likely Republican districts and weakens Dems a good bit in the former.

[lfromnj]

Here's my attempt to make a fair as possible PA map. It's 10 Trump - 7 Clinton composition. I'm pretty confidant that Biden won PA-1 in 2020. So if one day DRA adds the 2020 prez data, it would become a 9R - 8D map. No city/town is split except for Philly.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/03a2ccc7-f995-4b96-a54b-68aefbdbe42e

A 9R-8D map is not fair though.

I'm confused as to how Dems get screwed in this when all of their areas had population growth and nearly every R area had population loss? Rs should be losing a district, not Ds.

Republicans will essentially lose a district from the middle of the state, which forces all the districts on the edges to move in. And that's bad news for PA-7, PA-8, and PA-17, which all would likely have to take in deeply deeply Republican territory on even a fair map. A fair map likely makes the latter 2 likely Republican districts and weakens Dems a good bit in the former.

Pa07 only has to expand by 12k ish btw but a fair map would realistically have Carbon in it instead of Monroe. Least change wouldn't hurt pa07 for dems too much though .

[Brittain33]

The starting point also has a lot of strong R Republican seats and lean D Democratic seats, so change is going to put the latter at risk.

[Roll Roons]

Also presidential partisanship alone will not necessarily tell the whole story. A compact Bucks County seat will be Tilt/Lean D at the presidential level but Likely R for Congress as long as Fitz is the incumbent.

[😥]

I think this map would be a pretty fair, though it looks like a slight gerrymandering:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e5198105-295f-4599-9cc9-c21911ea9fea

9-8 Clinton in 2016 and Biden probably flipped PA-07 in 2020, so 10-7 Biden in 2020

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

PA State Senate map I made.
Rules:
1) county splits should be avoided as much as is reasonable, with the 10% deviation band being used to full effect if need be.
2) municipal splits are verboten unless the municipality has too many people for one district, in which case only one district can cross out of its borders.
3) effort would be taken to avoid packing minorities.
4) compactness is quite important.
5) urban municipalities are generally to be paired with nearby suburbs.

In Philly and Pittsburgh:
Districts should try to follow Broad Street and/or rivers
No ward splits in Philly
Baldwin had to go in a Pittsburgh district for compactness reasons
Some effort should be taken to draw a Latino influence seat in Philly and Black influence seat in Alleghany County

There are 23 Clinton districts, 26 Casey '18 districts, and 35 Wolf '18 districts. There are likely to be 28 Biden districts. In the 2012-2018 Composite, there are 27 districts voting Dem.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/a7458821-f52f-46ed-9c4c-fe3f6a58e883

[Stuart98]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Cracking Philly doesn't help in the congressional map unless you splits Bucks, the parts of Philly adjoining PA-01 are fairly Republican and the other districts adjoining Philly are already solidly D. PA-01 going into southern Montgomery is actually bluer than if it goes into Philadelphia. My fair map actually does crack Philly a bit to get all three districts in it majority minority, but this hurts Dems by removing the bluest parts of Montgomery from PA-04, turning it into a swing district. (My map compensates for this elsewhere by making PA-10 into a Trump/Biden district)

[Devils30]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Cracking Philly doesn't help in the congressional map unless you splits Bucks, the parts of Philly adjoining PA-01 are fairly Republican and the other districts adjoining Philly are already solidly D. PA-01 going into southern Montgomery is actually bluer than if it goes into Philadelphia. My fair map actually does crack Philly a bit to get all three districts in it majority minority, but this hurts Dems by removing the bluest parts of Montgomery from PA-04, turning it into a swing district. (My map compensates for this elsewhere by making PA-10 into a Trump/Biden district)

I'd rather have a Biden won Dem trending PA-10 than trying to save Cartwright.

[Oryxslayer]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Cracking Philly doesn't help in the congressional map unless you splits Bucks, the parts of Philly adjoining PA-01 are fairly Republican and the other districts adjoining Philly are already solidly D. PA-01 going into southern Montgomery is actually bluer than if it goes into Philadelphia. My fair map actually does crack Philly a bit to get all three districts in it majority minority, but this hurts Dems by removing the bluest parts of Montgomery from PA-04, turning it into a swing district. (My map compensates for this elsewhere by making PA-10 into a Trump/Biden district)

I'd rather have a Biden won Dem trending PA-10 than trying to save Cartwright.

See this post for how to do that. If you are willing to chuck Cartwright by putting all of Monroe in PA-07, then you can more or less keep the core of every SEPA seat. And if you are cutting one dem seat, why not create another in SCPA with the three cities?

Arguably, that's what I think people don't realize. The court is dem leaning, and knows the western seats need to take in more turf cause a seat got cut - raising the overall threshold. The biggest basket of unused Dem votes available to add to those seats, to preserve the topline partisan equitability (will be a desire) is to use Lancaster, either in PA-06 or PA-10.

[Devils30]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Cracking Philly doesn't help in the congressional map unless you splits Bucks, the parts of Philly adjoining PA-01 are fairly Republican and the other districts adjoining Philly are already solidly D. PA-01 going into southern Montgomery is actually bluer than if it goes into Philadelphia. My fair map actually does crack Philly a bit to get all three districts in it majority minority, but this hurts Dems by removing the bluest parts of Montgomery from PA-04, turning it into a swing district. (My map compensates for this elsewhere by making PA-10 into a Trump/Biden district)

I'd rather have a Biden won Dem trending PA-10 than trying to save Cartwright.

See this post for how to do that. If you are willing to chuck Cartwright by putting all of Monroe in PA-07, then you can more or less keep the core of every SEPA seat. And if you are cutting one dem seat, why not create another in SCPA with the three cities?

Arguably, that's what I think people don't realize. The court is dem leaning, and knows the western seats need to take in more turf cause a seat got cut - raising the overall threshold. The biggest basket of unused Dem votes available to add to those seats, to preserve the topline partisan equitability (will be a desire) is to use Lancaster, either in PA-06 or PA-10.

I wonder if putting Lackawanna in Wild's PA-7 is another solution while putting Allentown or Bethlehem in PA-1

[Devils30]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Cracking Philly doesn't help in the congressional map unless you splits Bucks, the parts of Philly adjoining PA-01 are fairly Republican and the other districts adjoining Philly are already solidly D. PA-01 going into southern Montgomery is actually bluer than if it goes into Philadelphia. My fair map actually does crack Philly a bit to get all three districts in it majority minority, but this hurts Dems by removing the bluest parts of Montgomery from PA-04, turning it into a swing district. (My map compensates for this elsewhere by making PA-10 into a Trump/Biden district)

I'd rather have a Biden won Dem trending PA-10 than trying to save Cartwright.

See this post for how to do that. If you are willing to chuck Cartwright by putting all of Monroe in PA-07, then you can more or less keep the core of every SEPA seat. And if you are cutting one dem seat, why not create another in SCPA with the three cities?

Arguably, that's what I think people don't realize. The court is dem leaning, and knows the western seats need to take in more turf cause a seat got cut - raising the overall threshold. The biggest basket of unused Dem votes available to add to those seats, to preserve the topline partisan equitability (will be a desire) is to use Lancaster, either in PA-06 or PA-10.

So under this proposal Biden districts would be: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,10,16 (old 18th), 17 

10-7 Biden seems like something worth trying with the court.

[Tintrlvr]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Cracking Philly doesn't help in the congressional map unless you splits Bucks, the parts of Philly adjoining PA-01 are fairly Republican and the other districts adjoining Philly are already solidly D. PA-01 going into southern Montgomery is actually bluer than if it goes into Philadelphia. My fair map actually does crack Philly a bit to get all three districts in it majority minority, but this hurts Dems by removing the bluest parts of Montgomery from PA-04, turning it into a swing district. (My map compensates for this elsewhere by making PA-10 into a Trump/Biden district)

Incidentally, Bucks + Cheltenham, Abington, Lower Moreland, Bryn Athyn, Rockledge and Jenkintown from Montgomery is exactly one district, and probably enough to be unwinnable for even Fitzpatrick (Clinton+7). The Democrats should push for this.

[Roll Roons]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Cracking Philly doesn't help in the congressional map unless you splits Bucks, the parts of Philly adjoining PA-01 are fairly Republican and the other districts adjoining Philly are already solidly D. PA-01 going into southern Montgomery is actually bluer than if it goes into Philadelphia. My fair map actually does crack Philly a bit to get all three districts in it majority minority, but this hurts Dems by removing the bluest parts of Montgomery from PA-04, turning it into a swing district. (My map compensates for this elsewhere by making PA-10 into a Trump/Biden district)

Incidentally, Bucks + Cheltenham, Abington, Lower Moreland, Bryn Athyn, Rockledge and Jenkintown from Montgomery is exactly one district, and probably enough to be unwinnable for even Fitzpatrick (Clinton+7). The Democrats should push for this.

Fitzpatrick outran Trump by 19 points. He genuinely has one of the strongest local brands of any member of Congress. He could survive a in district that went for Clinton/Biden by high single digits.

[Tintrlvr]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Cracking Philly doesn't help in the congressional map unless you splits Bucks, the parts of Philly adjoining PA-01 are fairly Republican and the other districts adjoining Philly are already solidly D. PA-01 going into southern Montgomery is actually bluer than if it goes into Philadelphia. My fair map actually does crack Philly a bit to get all three districts in it majority minority, but this hurts Dems by removing the bluest parts of Montgomery from PA-04, turning it into a swing district. (My map compensates for this elsewhere by making PA-10 into a Trump/Biden district)

Incidentally, Bucks + Cheltenham, Abington, Lower Moreland, Bryn Athyn, Rockledge and Jenkintown from Montgomery is exactly one district, and probably enough to be unwinnable for even Fitzpatrick (Clinton+7). The Democrats should push for this.

Fitzpatrick outran Trump by 19 points. He genuinely has one of the strongest local brands of any member of Congress. He could survive a in district that went for Clinton/Biden by high single digits.

This is hugely misleading; the Democrats ran a terrible candidate. Yes, Fitzpatrick routinely outruns national Republicans. But he absolutely could not win a Biden+12-ish district against a competent candidate (which is what a Clinton+7 district in that area would be), especially with a bunch of new and hostile (without looking it up, Cheltenham was something like Clinton+75) territory in the seat.

[compucomp]

I think some of the discussion here about what the PASC might do is a bit off base. We saw what they did in 2018; they removed the hilarious shapes (like PA-7 "Goofy Kicking Donald Duck") and created compact districts broadly around communities of interest, like PA-1 is Bucks County, PA-7 is the Lehigh Valley, PA-8 is NEPA, PA-4 is Montgomery County, etc. So it's pretty unlikely they would do things like Allentown with PA-1 or Scranton with PA-7 since that breaks up communities of interest, this kind of arrangement is more likely to result from a deal between Wolf and the legislature.

[Stuart98]

Fair map:


President 2016:
President 2020 numbers:
The 3rd is 51.8% BVAP; the 2nd is 49.1% WVAP, 21.2% HVAP, 20.2% BVAP; the 5th is 49.0% WVAP, 33.6% BVAP, 10.9% AVAP.

DRA link.

[Sol]

How is that excavation of Pittsburgh supposed to be fair?

[Stuart98]

How is that excavation of Pittsburgh supposed to be fair?

Pittsburgh is kept whole, and the district its in is 69% the current 18th, while the 17th is 73% the current 17th. Even if I had done more to put the towns most like Pittsburgh with it, the result would still have been more than 70% WVAP; a proper minority access district is not possible in western PA. Even with the decidedly D-favored Pittsburgh configuration, the plan as a whole still has a mild Republican lean according to tools like PlanScore.

[Oryxslayer]

For reference, here's what I expect in Pittsburgh. With Lamb gone, everything becomes much neater. The trick is you no longer need to stick Mt. Lebanon in PA-17. Sure it's a very Liberal suburb, but to it's south and west are areas with non-negligible numbers of Republicans. If you want to keep a swing seat in the region - which is gonna be the goal, the easiest way is to get the east towns with substantial AA populations. From there you can add bits and pieces totaling 78K from each of the surrounding three colors to green. This produces a seat that voted from Trump and Wolf, like the present seat, but by margins slightly more favorable for the Democrats.

Oh, and this PA-17 Pittsburgh seat has a div of 2 people, despite cutting no towns or precincts.

[Oryxslayer]

With both Doyle and Lamb out, its almost guaranteed that the Pittsburgh region will maintain it's current alignment with 1 D-leaning swing and one safe - or get better for Dems. No incumbents anymore to worry about, so only statewide partisan concerns need matter.