2020 Labour Leadership Election

[SPQR]

Momentum will ballot a Yes/No on endorsing RLB & Rayner.

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1216018797968216065

"More internal democracy", they said - and in the end it looks very much like the Five Star Movement's fake direct democracy...

[Rural Radical2]

Are there no women between Blair and Corbyn ideologically? I don't really like to bring up US politics in UK topics, but who is your Amy Klobuchar? That seems to be the way to go, with just a hint more leftism.

Lisa Nandy probably

[DL]

Are there no women between Blair and Corbyn ideologically? I don't really like to bring up US politics in UK topics, but who is your Amy Klobuchar? That seems to be the way to go, with just a hint more leftism.

Actually there is no one in the contest who could be described as “Blairite” the whole centre of gravity in the Labour is so much further to the left now that if Jess Phillips is now seen to be more moderate compared to Corbyn, she is still several quantum leaps to the left of Tony Blair

[mileslunn]

Are there no women between Blair and Corbyn ideologically? I don't really like to bring up US politics in UK topics, but who is your Amy Klobuchar? That seems to be the way to go, with just a hint more leftism.

Actually there is no one in the contest who could be described as “Blairite” the whole centre of gravity in the Labour is so much further to the left now that if Jess Phillips is now seen to be more moderate compared to Corbyn, she is still several quantum leaps to the left of Tony Blair

True and that has its pros and cons.  With younger voters being more left wing than older party risks split if as centrist as it was under Blair.  On other hand, it makes winning a majority much harder.  If you look at constituency breakdowns, Blair won in many areas, particularly in Midlands where Tories are now getting over 50% and in some cases even 60% so that suggests voters there are fairly centrists.  Other benefit of moving to centre is helps Liberal Democrats as I hate to say it, but if Liberal Democrats remain low, Tories will have a floor of close to 40% making them hard to beat, whereas if Liberal Democrats could win in Southwest like they did under Blair or perhaps gain in Home counties (as similar profile areas in Canada are going Liberal and Democrat in US) that could help.

Reality is Labour probably will need SNP to form government as in past their strength has always involved doing well in Scotland and SNP being centre-left has more or less cornered the progressive vote.  They used to be strongest in Northeastern part which is fairly conservative and now an SNP-Conservative battleground while middle belt where most live used to be a Labour stronghold but now SNP.

[Blair]

Kremlinology of this; this is pretty much what we expected. Momentum were set up solely for this purpose; to ensure that Jeremy losing didn't see the end of his project.

As always there is a difference between who Momentum activists endorse & who Momentum Members (of which there's 30K) vote for- I expect this is being done quickly so they can get organising for CLPs and ballot. (One underappreciated thing is that a winter leadership election after a general election will make it harder to get people to engage & it's on a shorter timescale than usual)

Apparently there were some votes for Burgon; who both Abbott & McDonnell have backed. If RLB is proof a below average politician can get pushed up by a faction, then Burgon is proof that some people will try and put the village dunce in power.

Is it? Looks pretty similar to 2015 and 2016 to me.

(indeed, complaints that it is all taking too long appear to be more common)

Wasn't 2015 May 10th until early/mid September?

[adma]

Are there no women between Blair and Corbyn ideologically? I don't really like to bring up US politics in UK topics, but who is your Amy Klobuchar? That seems to be the way to go, with just a hint more leftism.

Actually there is no one in the contest who could be described as “Blairite” the whole centre of gravity in the Labour is so much further to the left now that if Jess Phillips is now seen to be more moderate compared to Corbyn, she is still several quantum leaps to the left of Tony Blair

True and that has its pros and cons.  With younger voters being more left wing than older party risks split if as centrist as it was under Blair.  On other hand, it makes winning a majority much harder.  If you look at constituency breakdowns, Blair won in many areas, particularly in Midlands where Tories are now getting over 50% and in some cases even 60% so that suggests voters there are fairly centrists.  Other benefit of moving to centre is helps Liberal Democrats as I hate to say it, but if Liberal Democrats remain low, Tories will have a floor of close to 40% making them hard to beat, whereas if Liberal Democrats could win in Southwest like they did under Blair or perhaps gain in Home counties (as similar profile areas in Canada are going Liberal and Democrat in US) that could help.

Reality is Labour probably will need SNP to form government as in past their strength has always involved doing well in Scotland and SNP being centre-left has more or less cornered the progressive vote.  They used to be strongest in Northeastern part which is fairly conservative and now an SNP-Conservative battleground while middle belt where most live used to be a Labour stronghold but now SNP.

That is, if it's as simple as "leftism".  Remember how Bernie overperformed in the 2016 primaries in Obama/Trump country.

There's probably a UK version of that sort of "left-populism", even if nobody's put a finger on it yet (and as with Berniemania, they may not do so until it actually materializes)

[Blair]

Are there no women between Blair and Corbyn ideologically? I don't really like to bring up US politics in UK topics, but who is your Amy Klobuchar? That seems to be the way to go, with just a hint more leftism.

Actually there is no one in the contest who could be described as “Blairite” the whole centre of gravity in the Labour is so much further to the left now that if Jess Phillips is now seen to be more moderate compared to Corbyn, she is still several quantum leaps to the left of Tony Blair

True and that has its pros and cons.  With younger voters being more left wing than older party risks split if as centrist as it was under Blair.  On other hand, it makes winning a majority much harder.  If you look at constituency breakdowns, Blair won in many areas, particularly in Midlands where Tories are now getting over 50% and in some cases even 60% so that suggests voters there are fairly centrists.  Other benefit of moving to centre is helps Liberal Democrats as I hate to say it, but if Liberal Democrats remain low, Tories will have a floor of close to 40% making them hard to beat, whereas if Liberal Democrats could win in Southwest like they did under Blair or perhaps gain in Home counties (as similar profile areas in Canada are going Liberal and Democrat in US) that could help.

Reality is Labour probably will need SNP to form government as in past their strength has always involved doing well in Scotland and SNP being centre-left has more or less cornered the progressive vote.  They used to be strongest in Northeastern part which is fairly conservative and now an SNP-Conservative battleground while middle belt where most live used to be a Labour stronghold but now SNP.

That is, if it's as simple as "leftism".  Remember how Bernie overperformed in the 2016 primaries in Obama/Trump country.

There's probably a UK version of that sort of "left-populism", even if nobody's put a finger on it yet (and as with Berniemania, they may not do so until it actually materializes)

The comparisons with Bernie and the US aren't really that useful imo.

The places were Bernie did well were during a primary election for all places; and in places where Hillary Clinton had surged herself when running against Obama in 2008.

[Blair]

and to the question 'where is Labour's Amy Klobuchar' I'm sure there is a former solicitor in the Labour Party who treats their staff awfully and would get 6% in an internal election.

But really there's plenty of women in the PLP who've won relatively safe seats (the fair description of Minnesota) but understand the value of how to win in the less labour friendly parts of these seats- some of them lost their seats in 2019 but unlike the US we don't have a political culture that encourages 25 people to run for leader!

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/1216691846556065792?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[CumbrianLefty]

Nominations amongst Labour MPs close in about two hours. If at least Dawn Butler doesn't make the cut for DL, a large number of people will not be happy (myself included, even though I want Rayner)

[EastAnglianLefty]

Lewis has dropped out, unclear if Thornberry is going to make it. All the Deputy Leader candidates seem to have made it, sadly.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lewis has dropped out, unclear if Thornberry is going to make it. All the Deputy Leader candidates seem to have made it, sadly.

Wonder who you are referring to there

Of course all candidates who have made it thus far now have the second stage - a sufficient number of afflliate/CLP nominations - to negotiate before they actually get onto the ballot.

[Lord Halifax]

Thornberry has made the cut.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thornberry has made the cut.

Ughhhhhhhhhhhhh

[DaWN]

I still think Wrong-Failey will win easily but looking at some of the reaction from the Online Left^TM to her, it might be embarrassingly close. Only they, on the verge of finally and irreversibly solidifying their grip on the Labour Party, could let petty factionalism get in the way.

[Pericles]

I still think Wrong-Failey will win easily but looking at some of the reaction from the Online Left^TM to her, it might be embarrassingly close. Only they, on the verge of finally and irreversibly solidifying their grip on the Labour Party, could let petty factionalism get in the way.

Rebecca Wrong-Daily is her nickname though, and it is actually catchy (though personally I don’t know if it is fair).

[DL]

I think Starmer will win. The legions of young people who joined Labour under Corbyn also tend to be passionately pro-EU and i think he would have won their hearts by being such a great Labour shadow Brexit minister

[mileslunn]

I think Starmer will win. The legions of young people who joined Labour under Corbyn also tend to be passionately pro-EU and i think he would have won their hearts by being such a great Labour shadow Brexit minister

I think it could go either way.  He is not quite as left wing as Rebecca Long Bailey and more articulate.  But his disadvantage is he is from London which is swinging towards Labour and much of the focus is on winning back the Midlands and Northern areas they lost.  At the same time Brexit will be a non-issue by next election so whether those swing back or not will depend on how Johnson governs and Labour's platform.  I think the suburban and urban ones they had a good shot at winning back, but the more rural ones like Basseltaw or Bishop Auckland, I think those might be gone for good or at least only in a landslide will they flip back and I don't see that happening next time.  If they lose next time around, then maybe in 2029 or 2028 Tories will have been in power long enough for a big shift to happen.

[CumbrianLefty]

Thornberry has made the cut.

Ughhhhhhhhhhhhh

Don't worry, she's not going to win even if she gets through the second "stage".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thornberry has made the cut.

Ughhhhhhhhhhhhh

Don't worry, she's not going to win even if she gets through the second "stage".

Yeah, I'm not too afraid of that. I guess I'm a little afraid that her running will cut through Starmer's momentum somewhat, but at least it won't affect the final outcome since Labour uses alternative vote.

[MaxQue]

Thornberry has made the cut.

Ughhhhhhhhhhhhh

Don't worry, she's not going to win even if she gets through the second "stage".

Yeah, I'm not too afraid of that. I guess I'm a little afraid that her running will cut through Starmer's momentum somewhat, but at least it won't affect the final outcome since Labour uses alternative vote.

Irrelevent. The 2nd stage is them needing unions or CLPs endorsements. They don't get enough, they are out.

[EastAnglianLefty]

CLP nominations are also done by alternative vote, so again vote-splitting isn't really a worry. I'm not sure what process the various unions use, but Thornberry is highly unlikely to be a factor there in any case.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CLP nominations are also done by alternative vote, so again vote-splitting isn't really a worry. I'm not sure what process the various unions use, but Thornberry is highly unlikely to be a factor there in any case.

In most Unions the process is 'whoever the General Secretary wants', except for the GMB where the endorsement has doubtless already been decided after the traditional consultation amongst Brothers in various Masonic Lodges.

[CumbrianLefty]

NUM has announced it is supporting Nandy for leader.

There was a time, and well within living memory, when such a pronouncement would have sent almost literal tremors throughout the Labour movement. These days........not so much.

[brucejoel99]

NUM has announced it is supporting Nandy for leader.

There was a time, and well within living memory, when such a pronouncement would have sent almost literal tremors throughout the Labour movement. These days........not so much.

Honestly didn't expect that. She's bang on the ballot now, with it sounding like she's expected to also get the GMB endorsement.

The real question is what this implies re: RLB's situation with leftist power brokers?