2020 Labour Leadership Election

[Silent Hunter]

Unfortunately, the problem was very much the man.

[CumbrianLefty]

Jess Phillips promising "a big announcement" soon, apparently.

Let joy be unconfined.

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1212493702205034497?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[CumbrianLefty]

Ian Lavery not even mentioned?

Nandy must be disappointed with that score too.

(also a useful reminder that there is a strong likelihood nobody will get 50% on the first round this time - transfers could yet be highly significant)

[Lord Halifax]

Ian Lavery not even mentioned?

Nandy must be disappointed with that score too.

(also a useful reminder that there is a strong likelihood nobody will get 50% on the first round this time - transfers could yet be highly significant)

Yes, but they have also polled that and have Starmer winning comfortably.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1212493703878606849?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[urutzizu]

So this does not take account of the registered supporters+affiliateds, though, right? I assume RLB would be running considerably better among them, though probably not quite *as* good, as she would need to win.

[Intell]

YouGov / Labour members

Demographic split of Keir Starmer v Rebecca Long-Bailey in head to head

KS/RLB %

All: 61/39

Male: 62/38
Female 61/39

18-39 55/45
40-59 60/40
60+ 72/28

2016 Remain 64/36
2016 Leave  40/60

ABC1 65/35
C2DE 51/49

[Blair]

Ian Lavery not even mentioned?

Nandy must be disappointed with that score too.

(also a useful reminder that there is a strong likelihood nobody will get 50% on the first round this time - transfers could yet be highly significant)

FWIW I actually forget that Nandy was a viable candidate until the 12th December; the only thing I'd seen her do in 2019 was the endless Brexit tease of 'will I vote for this deal'.

I don't dislike her but she's had an extremely quiet time since she left the shadow cabinet and certainly isn't a big figure- of course being only 1% behind Thornberry shows just how well she has done.

I don't know if you share this but the most important thing about the transfers is that they're unpredictable, bizarre and not straight forward- I remember hearing that 20% of 2015 Liz Kendall voters had Corbyn as a 2nd preference, and equally I think lots of people in Labour assume that everyone votes fractionally in their order (they don't)

To give just one example my 1st preference in the the Deputy Leadership will most likely go to someone who I feel will balance out RLB in case she wins as Leader; as much as I love Angela I can't see her being a good deputy to RLB.

So this does not take account of the registered supporters+affiliateds, though, right? I assume RLB would be running considerably better among them, though probably not quite *as* good, as she would need to win.

We don't know if or what the affiliated supporter scheme looks like; there's a good chance the NEC will keep up a high fee (it was £3 in '15 but & £25 in 2016) along with a short time-frame (2 days to sign up)

Affiliate turnout tends to be quite low (it was lower than affiliates even in 2016) but if the big unions split we could see a more interesting result, but they tend to broadly follow the headline results (with some variation)

[CumbrianLefty]

There were also quite a few 1Corbyn 2Kendall ballot papers in 2015, for sure.

(though that and indeed the opposite maybe shouldn't surprise given that the latter's campaign also had something of an "anti-establishment" vibe)

And if the polls carry on as above you don't need to worry about voting for Rayner as deputy - her and Starmer might form quite an effective team.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those survey figures make sense; we know that Starmer is well-liked by Labour members, we know that a certain proportion will back a cheese sandwich if said sandwich is seen as the 'official' Left candidate, we know that Thornberry is respected but not liked, that Cooper is seen as yesterday's woman, and the rest is basically name recognition.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

FWIW I actually forget that Nandy was a viable candidate until the 12th December; the only thing I'd seen her do in 2019 was the endless Brexit tease of 'will I vote for this deal'.

I don't dislike her but she's had an extremely quiet time since she left the shadow cabinet and certainly isn't a big figure- of course being only 1% behind Thornberry shows just how well she has done.

That's the issue: outside Wigan she is not a well-known figure at all. She was not particularly high-profile when on the front bench, and has kept a very low profile as a backbencher. The nature of leadership contests, of course, is that candidates like that can suddenly surge if conditions are right. And even if not, that a contest gives them a shot at boosting their profile for the future.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually if DM had won I suspect we would have heard the dread words "spent too much" quite a bit - Blairites ceaselessly whined about Ed not saying so throughout the 2010-15 period and then decided within hours of the latter GE that said omission had been a major reason for the defeat. And of course this conventional wisdom drove the fateful decision to abstain on the benefit cuts that summer.....

No, but he would have been hit over other things as he was closer to the heart of government for longer. And he would, I'm fairly sure, have responded in the same awkward way.

Which brings us to another thing - despite the oft-made claim (repeated above) that Corbyn simply repudiated the New Labour years, come that moment he was the only leadership candidate willing to actually defend a key part of its programme which won over the voters you describe back in the day. Labour's decade since losing power is full of ironies, but that was surely one of the biggest.

In that first, critical, internal election yes, absolutely. And implicitly in 2017. Otherwise, no. There may be a lesson there.

[Lord Halifax]

According to the Daily Fail Cooper has given up on running for leader.

[CumbrianLefty]

Will anybody actually notice?

Seriously, it seems the only people still boosting her are in the media. Even most Labour right wingers have, it appears, moved on to other things.

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1213175789954510849

[Blair]

I've never been her biggest fan but Jess has something that very few Labour Politicians in the last decade have had- cut through.

[CumbrianLefty]

Really? Her recognition ratings amongst "ordinary" voters aren't that great.

That video is well put together, but its still mostly "me me me".

[Silent Hunter]

As someone who once appeared in a vox pop on GMTV and misidentified Peter Mandelson as a newsreader, most politicians aren't very well recognised outside the really big people.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nandy has also formally announced. Did so in her constituency's local paper, which is a nice touch.

[Blair]

Really? Her recognition ratings amongst "ordinary" voters aren't that great.

That video is well put together, but its still mostly "me me me".

Not in terms of that- I just think if she spends 2 hours on a stage with Starmer, Nandy and Long-Bailey she has the best chance of appearing human, and not just talking in the usual labour party management talk.

Of course part of this is a crafted routine; but I feel there's a chance she could do a lot better than a lot of people inside the party thing (or equally a lot worse)

[CumbrianLefty]

Really? Her recognition ratings amongst "ordinary" voters aren't that great.

That video is well put together, but its still mostly "me me me".

Not in terms of that- I just think if she spends 2 hours on a stage with Starmer, Nandy and Long-Bailey she has the best chance of appearing human, and not just talking in the usual labour party management talk.

Of course part of this is a crafted routine; but I feel there's a chance she could do a lot better than a lot of people inside the party thing (or equally a lot worse)

Trouble is, even accepting that she is still very capable of spectacularly messing the whole thing up.

[Blair]

Really? Her recognition ratings amongst "ordinary" voters aren't that great.

That video is well put together, but its still mostly "me me me".

Not in terms of that- I just think if she spends 2 hours on a stage with Starmer, Nandy and Long-Bailey she has the best chance of appearing human, and not just talking in the usual labour party management talk.

Of course part of this is a crafted routine; but I feel there's a chance she could do a lot better than a lot of people inside the party thing (or equally a lot worse)

Trouble is, even accepting that she is still very capable of spectacularly messing the whole thing up.

Oh of course; we are playing with fire by giving the keys to the 2015 intake.

FWIW whatever rump of the Progress faction is left in the PLP appears to be backing Jess- Peter Kyle, Neil Coyle and Wes Streeting have all came out in support of her (all part of the same intake) and all very much so on the right of the party.

Interesting in that she isn't a candidate of the right; although I think this is more a case of the right being so fractured, so demoralised and frankly not willing to get 2% of the vote again; much like with Corbyn's team backing Thornberry in 2017 Jess is simply the strongest person running who gives them a vague chance of influence.

I'll leave Al's impression of her for a good laugh...

One could try to place Phillips in to an ideological or factional bracket, but this would be an error. She is primarily a gadfly. Very hostile to the present leadership and with a famously bad relationship with just about everyone even vaguely associated with it. She does have a genuine popular following of sorts, though how many presently have a vote I'm not sure. Still, beware of the power of Mumsnet. If they put their collective Will to it I'm sure they could do entryism better than Trots or even the Canadian wing of the SAD. Phillips likes to imply that she comes from a working class background, but she doesn't. She is, however, most definitely a Brummie, and while the focus has been on Labour's poor performance in the North of England, results in the Midlands were even more disturbing.

[CumbrianLefty]

Really? Her recognition ratings amongst "ordinary" voters aren't that great.

That video is well put together, but its still mostly "me me me".

Not in terms of that- I just think if she spends 2 hours on a stage with Starmer, Nandy and Long-Bailey she has the best chance of appearing human, and not just talking in the usual labour party management talk.

Of course part of this is a crafted routine; but I feel there's a chance she could do a lot better than a lot of people inside the party thing (or equally a lot worse)

Trouble is, even accepting that she is still very capable of spectacularly messing the whole thing up.

Oh of course; we are playing with fire by giving the keys to the 2015 intake.

FWIW whatever rump of the Progress faction is left in the PLP appears to be backing Jess- Peter Kyle, Neil Coyle and Wes Streeting have all came out in support of her (all part of the same intake) and all very much so on the right of the party.

Interesting in that she isn't a candidate of the right; although I think this is more a case of the right being so fractured, so demoralised and frankly not willing to get 2% of the vote again; much like with Corbyn's team backing Thornberry in 2017 Jess is simply the strongest person running who gives them a vague chance of influence.

I'll leave Al's impression of her for a good laugh...

One could try to place Phillips in to an ideological or factional bracket, but this would be an error. She is primarily a gadfly. Very hostile to the present leadership and with a famously bad relationship with just about everyone even vaguely associated with it. She does have a genuine popular following of sorts, though how many presently have a vote I'm not sure. Still, beware of the power of Mumsnet. If they put their collective Will to it I'm sure they could do entryism better than Trots or even the Canadian wing of the SAD. Phillips likes to imply that she comes from a working class background, but she doesn't. She is, however, most definitely a Brummie, and while the focus has been on Labour's poor performance in the North of England, results in the Midlands were even more disturbing.

Sorry, what?

I see that Nandy has also launched her campaign btw - and she arguably "speaks human" at least as well as "Our Jess" does. Having said that, surely none of the likely candidates this time (no, not even Starmer) will be as appallingly robotic on the hustings as D Miliband so notoriously was in 2010.

(a key reason why he "unexpectedly" lost IMO)

[DaWN]

Phillips is someone who could be a great asset to the Not Insane wing of Labour but I wouldn't want her within a million miles of the leader's office.

This might however be a potential boon for Starmer - with a candidate more obviously of the right in the race he'll be able to better contrast his soft left credentials. Unlikely that it'll stop Long-Bailey of course, but politics is events dear boy...

[Blair]

In the expected post general election leadership contest in 2017 Corbyn's team & UNITE were talking about backing Thornberry for leader as the best chance of stopping either Yvette or Chukka.

This was after Clive Lewis had punched a wall near Seamus Milne & before RLB, Burgon or Lavery had any sort of profile in the party.