2020 Labour Leadership Election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This promises to be a right laugh.

[mileslunn]

What are rules to get nomination?  My understanding is you need a minimum number of MPs to nominate one.  In past usually a hard left like Diane Abbott or Jeremy Corbyn was nominated as a token gesture assuming they wouldn't win.  After disaster I don't think any moderate MPs will do this although how many are new MPs who came under Corbyn and thus support Corbynism?

[StateBoiler]

Can thread title be changed to "2020 Labour Party Civil War"?

[Babeuf]

I always found RLB and Rayner impressive. Don't know how they'll play after the massacre though.

[Oryxslayer]

Can thread title be changed to "2020 Labour Party Civil War"?

I'm not sure it's needed. If Labour actually approaches this smartly we will see something like the 2012 GOP autopsy report come out before Corbyn resigns in the nest few months. Admittedly, the GOP autopsy was slanted to promote the Jeb/Rubio vision of the party, and Trump ended up proving that the GOP didn't need to follow that vision. However, a statistical analysis of which parts of the Corbyn era worked and what didn't.  All sides of this issue need to be analyzed: why Labour was unable to keep or build upon her surge in the Southeast from 2017, why voters in the North thought Labour was the establishment that needed to be kicked out on a incumbent govts "time for change," what issues are party issues and what problems are leadership issues, and most importantly find what all potential voters want in a 21st century party.  It will reduce infighting if done right and the party will have a clear path to power, not ideological bickering.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really, really, really hope that what Labour members and supporters take away from this debacle isn't that the party needs to go back to neoliberal fiscal policies and embrace hard-Remainer identity politics. We'll see.

[Oryxslayer]

I really, really, really hope that what Labour members and supporters take away from this debacle isn't that the party needs to go back to neoliberal fiscal policies and embrace hard-Remainer identity politics. We'll see.

This is what could happen you you don't actually sponser a in depth report into the 2019 election and Corbyn era in general. If 2019 was an action, then some will conclude  you should go to the opposite position (the reaction) to have a shot. However, the truth is actually in between and likely off to the side. You can't keep going back to an old eras policies, be they the workers movements of the 70s or New Labour of the 90s. The best parties are able to find something new and then use it to build up something different than what came before. Obama's Democratic coalition fully unleashed the power of minorities, Harper recognized the power in the western alienation and their revolt style message, Berlusconi recognized the anger at traditional parties and used that to remold Italian democracy, and tbh, the Tories now have Brexit. Labour needs something like that.

[Lord Halifax]

So who are the likely candidates?

RLB, Angela Rayner, Emily Thornberry and Keir Starmer, Jess Phillips and perhaps Yvette Cooper trying her luck again.

#BackBurgon is a parody account, but Burgon hasn't ruled out running, neither have Lisa Nandy and David Lammy. I suppose Nandy would have some support in the PLP?

[Hnv1]

Why isn't Watson running?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why isn't Watson running?

Because he retired from politics this election?

[parochial boy]

I really, really, really hope that what Labour members and supporters take away from this debacle isn't that the party needs to go back to neoliberal fiscal policies and embrace hard-Remainer identity politics. We'll see.

It's unlikely considering the current membership.

Although, to be honest, pretty much everything I've seen so far seems to suggest that everyone across every wing of the party is just suffering from a massive case of confirmation bias. No-one seems to be exactly ready to engage in the sort of introspection that the party definitely needs.

[Tender Branson]

Why isn't Watson running?

Watson 4 PM.

[Silent Hunter]

Why isn't Watson running?

Because he retired from politics this election?

He also quit as Deputy Leader, so if Corbyn resigns before a new leader is in place, the Shadow Cabinet and NEC will pick the interim leader. They're both very much under Corbynite control now.

[CumbrianLefty]

I really, really, really hope that what Labour members and supporters take away from this debacle isn't that the party needs to go back to neoliberal fiscal policies and embrace hard-Remainer identity politics. We'll see.

There is genuinely not the faintest chance of Labour members/supporters deciding that.

The media, on the other hand......

[Blair]

I know Luke Pollard personally, and I think that he might be running for leadership. He's very popular here (cross-party support, even tories love him.) but I'm not sure I could support him due to his very pro-remain stance. However, I support his views on electoral reform. What are your thoughts on him? He's definitely an underdog if he ever gets in.

He's not running for leader.

[Queen Isuelt]

Lisa Nandy.

but whoever is the nominee the press will destroy on day 1.

[Blair]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/12/how-does-labour-leadership-election-work

FWIW since people are asking re getting on the ballot.

You need 10% of MPs/MEPs to nominate you (so that's 21) and then you need 5% of Constituency Labour Parties (there's roughly 600 odd of these) or 5% of affiliated groups (of which two must be trade unions)

It then goes to OMOV which ranked preference.

These were the rules introduced by Corbyn in 2017 and were designed specifically for this- to get a left candidate on the ballot.

The big difference is that we'll need at least 4 weeks for the nomination process to run... and it will be organised chaos.

My thoughts  

1.) There's enough MPs to get one member of the 'left project' on the ballot- but not two.

2.) There's a big divide among the 'left' in terms of Brexit; there's the lexiteer strain represented by Burgon & Lavery & Trickett and then the more progressive strain represented by Clive Lewis, Lloyd Russell-Moyle.

3.) The race will come down to whether both Rebecca Long Bailey and Angela Rayner run; they're flat mates, and very close friends- and the deputy race means that one will have a reason to not run for Leader.

4.) Rayner would have much more support in the PLP & would be guaranteed the support of UNISON (she is an ex-union official) and GMB (the two big anti-Corbyn trade unions)

5.) There will be a lot of backlash against Starmer & Thornberry over their perceived 'London elite remainness etc' but I'm not sure how well this would go in a race where the membership are overwhelming remainers in leave seats.

6.) This is going to be a weird race. The membership is overwhelming pro-Corbyn, but we've just suffered a huge defeat, and no-one running has ever ran in an internal election before

[CumbrianLefty]

Lisa Nandy.

but whoever is the nominee the press will destroy on day 1.

Yes.

Its often forgotten now, but a lot of the press was even quite Blair-hostile *before* the 1997 GE (his backing from the Sun was actually a bit of an exception - have a guess who wrote a lot of the Torygraph's knocking copy then?)

[Silent Hunter]

Yet Blair won...

[CumbrianLefty]

He did.

As would John Smith have, had he lived.

Tories were in such a dire state by 1997 that not even the most friendly press could save them.

[StateBoiler]

Saw this elsewhere, the only 2 Labour leaders in the past 60 years to win a general election were Harold Wilson and Tony Blair.

One is dead, and the other the current party hates.

Good luck.

[SPQR]

He did.

As would John Smith have, had he lived.

Tories were in such a dire state by 1997 that not even the most friendly press could save them.

The same could be said of the Tories in the last 3 years...

[Intell]

He did.

As would John Smith have, had he lived.

Tories were in such a dire state by 1997 that not even the most friendly press could save them.

The same could be said of the Tories in the last 3 years...

No, It couldn't, maybe without Brexit, but not with it.

[Zinneke]

I think Dan Jarvis is a good shout. He's a Northerner, ex-Army,  but the question remains as to why he didnt run in 2015.

Starner would be a way to bring the party together if he continues most of Corbyn's 2017 manifesto, just in a more sensible manner.

Abbott or McDonnell would be a repeat of the previous election.

In terms of what will actually happen...probably a member of the Soft Left Momentum can tolerate.

[Intell]

I think Dan Jarvis is a good shout. He's a Northerner, ex-Army,  but the question remains as to why he didnt run in 2015.

Starner would be a way to bring the party together if he continues most of Corbyn's 2017 manifesto, just in a more sensible manner.

Abbott or McDonnell would be a repeat of the previous election.

In terms of what will actually happen...probably a member of the Soft Left Momentum can tolerate.

"Momentum" the activist wing will only 'tolerate' a candidate on the hard left, the party membership however could be willing to vote for a soft left candidate.