Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[2016]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1231968396935344128

Enough said!

[Xing]

Biden very likely wins SC, but unless he wins by a surprisingly wide margin, what is his path forward? He'll get a few states on Super Tuesday, but unless he can start winning states outside of the South, he'll just keep falling behind Sanders in delegates after that.

[President Johnson]

Biden very likely wins SC, but unless he wins by a surprisingly wide margin, what is his path forward? He'll get a few states on Super Tuesday, but unless he can start winning states outside of the South, he'll just keep falling behind Sanders in delegates after that.

A narrow win is probably the worst outcome for Uncle Joe, especially if he wants Bernie stopped. If Joe loses, he's done and likely drops out, allowing Bloomberg or Mayor Pete to become the moderate standarf bearer. If he wins big time (double digits), he probably regains enough strength to do well on Super Tuesday and may actually force Bloomberg out. But if he hangs on after a close win in South Carolina, Joe and Mike split the moderate vote and allow Bernie small plurality wins in states like Texas and North Carolina. This would give Bernie enough momentum to roll over the remaining contests and either get a majority of delegates or a strong plurality. And in the latter case, the convention could turn into a mess, especially of Bernie is denied the nomination. In the end, only Trump would benefit.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Biden very likely wins SC, but unless he wins by a surprisingly wide margin, what is his path forward? He'll get a few states on Super Tuesday, but unless he can start winning states outside of the South, he'll just keep falling behind Sanders in delegates after that.

Models are imperfect, but according to 538:

Biden is forecasted to win an average of 27% of the vote in South Carolina. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 17% and 38% of the vote. He has a 1 in 2 (48%) chance of winning the most votes, slightly better than the second most likely winner, Sanders, who has a 2 in 5 (43%) chance.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/south-carolina/

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The fate of the Democratic pary is on Biden's shoulders.

[Rookie Yinzer]

He only has one staffer in North Carolina, a pivotal state not only in the primary but in the general with a Governor's race and Senate race on the line. He's broke and will not be able to keep up with Bernie down the stretch.

If he doesn't win SC he needs to drop out.

[redjohn]

Watching Joe's slow and painful collapse has been brutal. The pain will just last longer if he wins SC and is inspired to stay in the race for at least another month. Give it a break, Joe. It's time to call it quits.

[John Dule]

Watching Joe's slow and painful collapse has been brutal. The pain will just last longer if he wins SC and is inspired to stay in the race for at least another month. Give it a break, Joe. It's time to call it quits.

To be fair, this was completely unpredictable. Who could have seen this coming? Completely out of left field.

I don't understand why people are arguing that Biden can lose Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada and still be considered the "front-runner" if he pulls off South Carolina. On Atlas, we might understand how the delegates are allocated and how demographics still favor Biden, but that's just among those of us who follow politics religiously. If Biden loses all of the first three contests, the media will say that he's plummeting and people will believe them. To the average voter, Biden's best quality is his "electability." If he doesn't win a state before South Carolina, that might be enough to shatter that perception.

Uh...

[NOVA Green]

Biden has seen his support collapse dramatically among White-Dems (Especially White Female DEMs nationally), so naturally Biden has an "Anglo White Problem"...

Biden is still popular with divorced highly educated low income white Catholic males between 40-64 years of age.

He lost every voting Group in Nevada except for Voters 65+. How do you supposed to win a National Primary Election if you can't expand beyond older folks is beyond me!

He doesn't win. Biden's strategy is to reinforce and then build a citadel around the African American and extremely elderly White vote. Maybe others will willingly enter his fortress as the race progresses, but that is secondary. He wants to carve out his niche in one of the communities that Bernie struggles to capture (and who control ~30% of conversation delegates), and then hold onto that niche no matter what. With luck, the other Bernie-warry groups sort themselves out in a manner that allows Bidens citadel to stand strong in Milwaukee.

Step one of this process was to get all the Free press from Nevada showing that you still are still relevant and can carry votes in the AA community. Step two is to win SC, hopefully convincingly, and get significant momentum solely in the AA community. Step three than is to rack up wins in the southern Super Tuesday States (divided wins, but wins) and prove your relevance. This path should be viable enough to get all the AA states into the tent. Thanks to all the southern states being frontloaded into March, Biden can strike while the iron is hot. Only Louisiana, DC, Maryland, and Delaware are after March when the question of whether we are going to the convention or not should be resolved.

I did posit something similar prior to the NV Primaries, which stated to the effect that if Biden were to place 2nd, it would most likely looks like a Bernie-Biden DEM PRIM race.

SC is key, but I still think that Biden could be a comeback kid if he does well on Sup Tues in the South, with a decent chunk of Black Voters, combined with White voters apparently that have abandoned Biden for Amy & Pete (or even the NY Billionaire dude) shifting back....

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/CANCEL_SAM/status/1232164550620909568

I like this. I'm going to start referring to Bloomberg as "The Other Biden" from now on.

[afleitch]

"Yesterday, upon the stair,
I met a man who wasn't there!
He wasn't there again today,
Oh how I wish he'd go away!"

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Biden makes outrageous claim that he was arrested trying to meet Nelson Mandela when he was still a US senator

“This day, 30 years ago, Nelson Mandela walked out of prison and entered into discussions about apartheid. I had the great honor of meeting him. I had the great honor of being arrested with our U.N. ambassador on the streets of Soweto trying to get to see him on Robbens Island.”

— Former vice president Joe Biden, in remarks in Columbia, S.C., on Feb. 11

“After he [Mandela] got free and became president, he came to Washington and came to my office. He threw his arms around me and said, ‘I want to say thank you.’ I said, ‘What are you thanking me for, Mr. President?’ He said: ‘You tried to see me. You got arrested trying to see me.’”

— Biden, in remarks in Las Vegas on Feb. 16

[...]

Biden, as a senator, was active in the anti-apartheid movement, helping pass sanctions on companies doing business in South Africa over President Ronald Reagan’s veto. But there is no evidence that Biden was ever arrested trying to see the imprisoned future president of a democratic South Africa.

As the Times noted, Biden’s memoir makes no mention of any such arrest. As far as we can tell, Biden never mentioned this arrest before; neither can we locate any news accounts of him being arrested.

Biden’s first statement above is rather jumbled. Soweto, a township near Johannesburg, is nearly 900 miles from Robben — not Robbens — Island, which is off the coast of Cape Town. He appears to be referring to a trip in 1977, but the U.N. ambassador from 1977 to 1979, Andrew Young, told The Fact Checker that he was never arrested in South Africa.

[Amtrak Joe]

Went to Joe Biden's even on campus last night. Had a great time, and since Bloomberg is not on the ballot on SC, I'm looking more into voting for him this Saturday.

[John Dule]

Damning article on Biden today in Slate. I can't disagree with their analysis though. The establishment hitched its cart to the wrong horse this time around.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Damning article on Biden today in Slate. I can't disagree with their analysis though. The establishment hitched its cart to the wrong horse this time around.

This is what pisses me off about him. He kept a lot of good people from surging or running altogether and now he’s not even going to close the deal. It’s infuriating.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Damning article on Biden today in Slate. I can't disagree with their analysis though. The establishment hitched its cart to the wrong horse this time around.

If any of the alternatives were actually good, they would have been able to challenge Biden.  It's not like challenging him was impossible.  Warren and Harris both got plenty of establishment support and had their moments, and he beat both of them.

The root of virtually every problem this cycle goes back to there being way too many candidates.  If there had been a reasonable 6-7 candidates at the beginning, we would have had far more substantive debates instead of it being "Medicare For All!  For it or against it?!" night after night, and every 1%er trying to get their moment in the sun by coming for Biden (and almost uniformly missing).  Imagine if Klobuchar got 15 minutes of speaking time every night from July through November and was able to present herself as a credible alternative to Biden instead of "hi America, I'm Amy Klobuchar" every night.

There's going to be a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking after this primary about how we should have seen all along that Biden was a poor candidate.  This article is just the start.  But across ten debates where he's been the #1 target for 8 of them, the only candidates to lay a glove on Biden have been Kamala Harris and Tom Steyer.  And Steyer's was an extremely cheap shot about a false allegation of racism.  So that just leaves the Harris attack on busing from the original debate, which ended up backfiring anyway, and he beat her in the next debate.

Ultimately I think the establishment was just too afraid of swinging the big stick this time around.  Someone like Tim Ryan should never have been allowed to get on the debate stage.  Let him use the CNN Town Halls and other such public appearances to make his case.  But if they'd put up a 5% threshold (Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg and Beto for debate 1) they would have been accused of rigging it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Damning article on Biden today in Slate. I can't disagree with their analysis though. The establishment hitched its cart to the wrong horse this time around.

This is what pisses me off about him. He kept a lot of good people from surging or running altogether and now he’s not even going to close the deal. It’s infuriating.

I still blame Democratic Primary voters more. Their prioritization of familiarity and name recognition over anything else compelled Biden to run when he polled at the top of preliminary polls. I can't blame him or Sanders for running if they see results like that.

Otherwise I agree with you though, I was always dreading a Biden versus Sanders primary. We had some new, fresh-faced talent running this time that never really got a fair chance.

[Calthrina950]

Damning article on Biden today in Slate. I can't disagree with their analysis though. The establishment hitched its cart to the wrong horse this time around.

This is what pisses me off about him. He kept a lot of good people from surging or running altogether and now he’s not even going to close the deal. It’s infuriating.

I still blame Democratic Primary voters more. Their prioritization of familiarity and name recognition over anything else compelled Biden to run when he polled at the top of preliminary polls. I can't blame him or Sanders for running if they see results like that.

Otherwise I agree with you though, I was always dreading a Biden versus Sanders primary. We had some new, fresh-faced talent running this time that never really got a fair chance.

Another point is that Trump would have faced a nominee 14-23 years younger than him if he were being opposed by anyone of Klobuchar, Harris, Gillibrand, or Booker. That would have provided a sort of generational contrast, and a younger nominee, particularly someone like Booker, would have been able to better make the case to key elements of the Democratic coalition-particularly younger, minority, and female voters-and to infrequent voters. But instead, Trump will be facing a nominee older than himself-whether it be Sanders, Biden, or Bloomberg. Sanders will still be able to energize turnout and rally the base, obviously, but Biden and Bloomberg clearly do not have that ability. And by facing an older nominee, Trump's ability to outcampaign them is enhanced.

[John Dule]

Damning article on Biden today in Slate. I can't disagree with their analysis though. The establishment hitched its cart to the wrong horse this time around.

This is what pisses me off about him. He kept a lot of good people from surging or running altogether and now he’s not even going to close the deal. It’s infuriating.

I still blame Democratic Primary voters more. Their prioritization of familiarity and name recognition over anything else compelled Biden to run when he polled at the top of preliminary polls. I can't blame him or Sanders for running if they see results like that.

Otherwise I agree with you though, I was always dreading a Biden versus Sanders primary. We had some new, fresh-faced talent running this time that never really got a fair chance.

Another point is that Trump would have faced a nominee 14-23 years younger than him if he were being opposed by anyone of Klobuchar, Harris, Gillibrand, or Booker. That would have provided a sort of generational contrast, and a younger nominee, particularly someone like Booker, would have been able to better make the case to key elements of the Democratic coalition-particularly younger, minority, and female voters-and to infrequent voters. But instead, Trump will be facing a nominee older than himself-whether it be Sanders, Biden, or Bloomberg. Sanders will still be able to energize turnout and rally the base, obviously, but Biden and Bloomberg clearly do not have that ability. And by facing an older nominee, Trump's ability to outcampaign them is enhanced.

Putting Biden in a debate with Trump would be a disaster for the Democrats. Say what you will about Trump, but he's extremely energetic when you get him in front of a camera. That's why, despite being six years his senior, Trump was able to call Jeb Bush "low-energy" in 2016. He is an experienced showman and he knows how to handle a crowd. I cannot imagine Biden and his stumbling, slurred speech pattern keeping up with Trump in any capacity. He would look like a complete geezer next to him.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I think there are some issues Biden would have debating Trump but energy isn't one of them.  It's pretty clear that Biden's strategy in these debates has been to look as high-energy as possible by yelling his answer to every question.

I'd suggest people go back and watch the 2012 debate with Ryan that's remembered as the peak of Biden's career.  We all remember the highlights, but a lot of it is basically the same stuff he's doing now.  Angry/stern tone, mixing up orders of magnitude, use of "in fact" and "the fact of the matter is" as a crutch, making numbered lists that don't really make sense and repeat the same number, stumbling over his words, stuttering e.g. "the most deva- uh, the most deva- um-uhuhuhahahahuh d-d-d-devastating".  It's to a lesser extent but it's the same old Biden.

[OneJ]

Damning article on Biden today in Slate. I can't disagree with their analysis though. The establishment hitched its cart to the wrong horse this time around.

This is what pisses me off about him. He kept a lot of good people from surging or running altogether and now he’s not even going to close the deal. It’s infuriating.

I still blame Democratic Primary voters more. Their prioritization of familiarity and name recognition over anything else compelled Biden to run when he polled at the top of preliminary polls. I can't blame him or Sanders for running if they see results like that.

Otherwise I agree with you though, I was always dreading a Biden versus Sanders primary. We had some new, fresh-faced talent running this time that never really got a fair chance.

The establishment should take some blame at the very least. Sure, the party seemed "leader-less" at one point in time but there were many other options the Democrats could've pushed to run. Instead, they insisted Biden would be the best choice. There were plenty of good reasons to skip over Biden. They were probably focusing too much on the general election while thinking Biden had this primary in the bag (I mean Biden certainly seemed to think so).

Now, Biden is fighting for his life to get a [decent] win in South Carolina, a state that was far more favorable to him than now, while having yet to drop a single ad for Super Tuesday after two horrible performances in IA and NH (he was polling well in both of those states, but he still uses demographics as an excuse) and a distant 2nd place in NV, a state he was widely expected win at one point. Even a win in SC still might not help him much for ST.

[Comrade Funk]

Chris Matthews about to declare Biden the Comeback Kid (lol) for winning a state he should've won be 30. Meanwhile, he's yet to spend anything on Super Tuesday states and is only banking on Obama nostalgia. This is the laziest campaign I've ever seen from a major candidate. Worse than Giuliani. His terrible organization and enthusiasm would doom us.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Harry Enten is one of the best out there and here are his thoughts on SC/Biden

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1232324258388418560
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1232685082521022466
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1232698708392861696



This + Fake News Click-bate Media Free Press' love to Comeback-stories bode (relatively) well for Joe.

[ElectionsGuy]

The undecided voters in the past have been disproportionately black and the final result has favored the person with the most black support. Since Obama ('08) and Clinton ('16) had overwhelming black support in their elections, the results heavily favored them compared to the polling. But Joe Biden doesn't have that kind of overwhelming advantage, the black vote in SC this time is split between Biden, Sanders, and Steyer with Biden leading a plurality. and so it could be reasonable to expect the final result to be a few points more favorable to Biden, it very likely will not something like we saw in 2016.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I sense an Obama endorsement coming, to stop Bernie.

We need Obama to also call Mini Mike and Steyer and get them to drop out and endorse Uncle Joe too. It is their only hope. It could be too late after Super Tuesday, as around 40% of delegates will have been allocated.