Ranking the Early States

[ElectionsGuy]

Biden

1. SC
2. NV
3. IA
4. NH

Needs a decent win in South Carolina, and a strong 2nd/3rd in Nevada

Buttigieg

1. IA
2. NH
3. NV
4. SC

Needs a large win out of both Iowa and New Hampshire, with a strong 2nd/3rd in Nevada.

Sanders

1. NH
2. NV
3. IA
4. SC

Needs a decent win in New Hampshire, a win in Nevada, and a strong 2nd/3rd in Iowa.

Warren

1. IA
2. NH
3. NV
4. SC

Needs a win out of both Iowa and New Hampshire, with a strong 2nd/3rd in Nevada.

The list is each state in order of how well the candidate should do (so Biden should do the best in SC, for every other candidate it should be their worst state), the statement below is the minimum they need to do to be on a winning track for the nomination. Preferably they should be doing better. Agree/disagree? What's your take?

[RGM2609]

Biden:

1. SC
2. NV
3. IA
4. NH

Needs a win in both South Carolina and Nevada to be the clear frontrunner, probably a second place in Iowa as well.

Buttigieg:

1. IA
2. NH
3. NV
4. SC

Needs to win both Iowa and New Hampshire, and have a decent result in SC that will lower Biden's margin there to be the frontrunner.

Sanders:

1. NV
2. NH
3. SC
4. IA

He needs a win in both Nevada and New Hampshire, and a decent showing in SC to prevent Biden from taking too much momentum in order to be the frontrunner.

Warren

1. NH
2. NV
3. IA
4. SC

She needs to win NH and NV and maybe even IA if Buttigieg collapses, or at least make it close, in order to be the frontrunner.

[W]

Biden

1. SC
2. NV
3. NH
4. IA

Needs a blowout win in South Carolina, a close 2nd or 1st in Nevada, and at least a respectable showing in Iowa and New Hampshire

Buttigieg

1. IA
2. NH
3. NV
4. SC

NEEDS a win in Iowa and New Hampshire, at least second in Nevada.

Sanders

1. NH
2. IA
3. NV
4. SC

Needs to perform well in Iowa, 1st or 2nd, needs a win in New Hampshire, 1st or 2nd in Nevada, 2nd in South Carolina

Warren

1. IA
2. NH
3. NV
4. SC

Needs 1st or 2nd in Iowa, a win in New Hampshire, 1st or 2nd in Nevada.

[John Dule]

I don't understand why people are arguing that Biden can lose Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada and still be considered the "front-runner" if he pulls off South Carolina. On Atlas, we might understand how the delegates are allocated and how demographics still favor Biden, but that's just among those of us who follow politics religiously. If Biden loses all of the first three contests, the media will say that he's plummeting and people will believe them. To the average voter, Biden's best quality is his "electability." If he doesn't win a state before South Carolina, that might be enough to shatter that perception.

[lfromnj]

I don't understand why people are arguing that Biden can lose Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada and still be considered the "front-runner" if he pulls off South Carolina. On Atlas, we might understand how the delegates are allocated and how demographics still favor Biden, but that's just among those of us who follow politics religiously. If Biden loses all of the first three contests, the media will say that he's plummeting and people will believe them. To the average voter, Biden's best quality is his "electability." If he doesn't win a state before South Carolina, that might be enough to shatter that perception.

Yup once Obama won Iowa he started to win black voters, earlier he didn't. He should still win SC but not by enough to actually make up for the losses.

[redjohn]

Agreed with others on Biden and SC. SC isn't enough. When Bernie was winning caucus after caucus in 2016 in tiny states out west, there was a perception that the race was close and HRC was barely clinging on.

When Biden loses IA, NH, and NV, it's going to be clear that he's not the frontrunner in any sense. If he won NH, NV, and SC I think he'd pretty much have it in the bag. But he won't win NH and likely won't win NV.

Sanders
Bernie has to win NH and do well in IA and NV (not sure how coming in second there would affect his chances). He also would pretty much have to come in second in SC, which is doable. Holding Biden off from a landslide there would be a great sign.

Buttigieg
He MUST win IA and NH, and come in at least second in NV.

Warren
She has to win NH and NV, and win or come in second in IA. However, my guess is that if she doesn't win IA then she'll lose NH to Sanders. Iowa is pretty much her big shot at the nomination because it would give her a lot of momentum going into NH.