Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Nobody cares about Biden's surrogates. Everyone knows he is an establishment figure; he's THE establishment figure, so I don't think surrogates really reinforce that message in a helpful way. He had great endorsements in IA and still did horribly. Same with NH.

It's Biden who needs to campaign better. He needs to figure out how to campaign better in the next week or it's 100% over.

So, you're basically saying it's over.

[redjohn]

Nobody cares about Biden's surrogates. Everyone knows he is an establishment figure; he's THE establishment figure, so I don't think surrogates really reinforce that message in a helpful way. He had great endorsements in IA and still did horribly. Same with NH.

It's Biden who needs to campaign better. He needs to figure out how to campaign better in the next week or it's 100% over.

So, you're basically saying it's over.

In my opinion, it is, but if he wins NV I think he still has a shot. It would give him some energy going into SC and would help him win there. But since he was leading by like a point in the last poll we got in NV over a month ago, I doubt he's leading now.

[Gracile]

I'd still say Biden is the favorite in SC regardless of what happens in NV, and a victory there would probably let him stay in on Super Tuesday.

[CookieDamage]

Bye Done loses Nevada and either his win in South Carolina is embarrassingly close or he loses outright.

[2016]

I'd still say Biden is the favorite in SC regardless of what happens in NV, and a victory there would probably let him stay in on Super Tuesday.

Margins do matter here. Even if Biden wins in SC my gut feel is that he won't get that massive bump Hillary got out of SC in 2016. Bernie only got 26 % in SC in 2016. You can probably bet your house that he will do much better than that and better with AA in general this time around.

[Xing]

Biden needs a win in NV. With how poorly he performed in IA and NH and his national collapse in polling, a second-place finish to Bernie isn't enough. He needs something to put energy back in his campaign, and a second-place finish won't do that.

A second place finish probably wouldn't save him, but it could at least be spun as a turn-around, and his campaign would live to fight another day. If he gets 3rd or worse in NV, though, I don't see how he goes forward.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'd still say Biden is the favorite in SC regardless of what happens in NV, and a victory there would probably let him stay in on Super Tuesday.

Margins do matter here. Even if Biden wins in SC my gut feel is that he won't get that massive bump Hillary got out of SC in 2016. Bernie only got 26 % in SC in 2016. You can probably bet your house that he will do much better than that and better with AA in general this time around.

Hillary won SC 3 to 1. Biden would be happy just to get a quarter of the margin she got.

Funny enough, if Biden is the "Hillary/establishment" of this primary, South Carolina could become for him what New Hampshire was for Bernie this year.

[win win]

After winning south carolina and sweeping the south on super Tues, is Biden the new front runner?

[TML]

Whoa, you’re getting way ahead of us here.

Let’s first see how these states play out. Even if he somehow wins all of these contests, the margins of victory will also matter in determining whether he can regain his front runner status.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I'd love it if he could, McCain-style, but I don't see that capability in his campaign operation.  They aren't built for this.

[W]

Ah yes, the 4-5-?-1 strategy.

[Middle-aged Europe]

No.

[Podgy the Bear]

I'm afraid not.  He doesn't have the money anymore.  The black vote is rapidly moving to Bloomberg.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Yes, and if the Pacers win their next 25 straight, they'll be favorites for an NBA title.

[tagimaucia]

I kinda doubt he'll ever fully recover front-runner status, but I do think a mini-Biden comeback spurred by him winning SC is more likely at this point than Buttigieg doing anything meaningful from here on out.

[PSOL]

Maybe

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/schwartzbCNBC/status/1228008385909600257

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/schwartzbCNBC/status/1228008385909600257

They're going to ask him why one should invest in Joe, when an investment in say Amy or Pete right now looks more profitable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The way the budget deficit is, the Dems are gonna find it very difficult to expand Obamacare beyond what it is today.

We should focus on more realistic goals, DC statehood,  Campaign finance reform, gun control. Which will pass narrowly in a Dem trifecta

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/john_flynn17/status/1228440769893003264

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1228771180670152705

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1228771180670152705

I'm thinking he's getting 3rd place at the most, but it's not impossible for him to get 4th or 5th again.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If he gets 4th or 5th in NV he is done.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

With 36% in and Biden trailing in fifth place with 9%, I can say with certainty his campaign is effectively over. Amazing that he was leading in the national polls until two weeks ago.

Another lesson that primary nationwide polls can be pretty meaningless.

[2016]

This Article by Politico might be worth reading:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/15/joe-biden-south-carolina-firewall-114862
Uncle Joe's SC Firewall is under siege.