Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[RGM2609]

46% of the precincts have reported and SaS is now back in!

[DavidB.]

And SNS is only going up in the projection, now at 5.4%. Smer too - 22.2% now. Looks like they're doing pretty well in some parts of Bratislava. Alliance are at 4.4% in the projection now and definitely look like they're out.

[Estrella]

Estrella should absolutely correct me if I'm talking nonsense, but when clicking on the map I get the impression Olano is doing relatively well in some of the deprived areas where L'SNS used to do well, while Republika doesn't do that well at all in such areas; a little counterintuitively they do better in the north central part.

A new projection with 37% of the vote in has Alliance now also below the threshold, at 4.7% - but potential Smer partner SNS still in.

To an extent yes (they're overperforming by a few points in places like Krupina and Poltár), but more broadly even as OĽANO is falling to 4-6% in most of the country, they're doing shockingly well in the East: 16% in Rožňava and Košice-okolie, 17% in Vranov nad Topľou and Kežmarok. Again, I have no idea what happened. There also isn't much rhyme and reason to Republika's map, but the differences there are small anyway: they're getting like 8% in their best district.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Fingers crossed Bratislava Patriots can hold the line.

[Logical]

Alliance and Republika appears to be almost certainly out.

[DavidB.]

The projection now also includes a seat tally: Smer 40, PS 32, Hlas 27, Olano 18, KDH 12, SaS 11, SNS 10.

Smer+Hlas+SNS = 77
Smer+Hlas+KDH+SNS = 89

PS+Hlas+KDH+SaS = 82
PS+Hlas+Olano = 77 (although probably impossible given Olano's past... challenges)

It's really all about Hlas' choice, and to a certain extent also KDH's. How compatible is KDH with Smer and how compatible with PS?

And to what extent does 'becoming the biggest party' matter?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

PS+Hlas+Olano = 77 (although probably impossible given Olano's past... challenges)

It would be peak Slovakia 🇸🇰

[rob in cal]

Did we just get a big urban vote dump to get to over 60 percent?

[Estrella]

Did we just get a big urban vote dump to get to over 60 percent?

Yep, but more small town than big city.

National (61% counted): Smer 24, Hlas 16, PS 14, OĽANO 10, KDH 7, SNS 6, Szövetség 5, SaS 5, Republika 5, Demokrati 3, Sme rodina 2, ĽSNS 1

Bratislava Region (26% counted): PS 28, Smer 20, Hlas 11, SaS 11, OĽANO 6, KDH 5, SNS 5, Demokrati 4, Republika 4

[rob in cal]

If SnS is doing ok in Bratislava (around 5 percent) then they are likely in? Wonder if that’s decisive in coalition possibilities?

[Estrella]

If SnS is doing ok in Bratislava (around 5 percent) then they are likely in? Wonder if that’s decisive in coalition possibilities?

I guess they're in, but they're still like 0.7% above the threshold and the big cities aren't reporting much yet, so it's not impossible they may fall below. It's gonna be narrow either way.

[Storr]

Did we just get a big urban vote dump to get to over 60 percent?

Yep, but more small town than big city.

National (61% counted): Smer 24, Hlas 16, PS 14, OĽANO 10, KDH 7, SNS 6, Szövetség 5, SaS 5, Republika 5, Demokrati 3, Sme rodina 2, ĽSNS 1

Bratislava Region (26% counted): PS 28, Smer 20, Hlas 11, SaS 11, OĽANO 6, KDH 5, SNS 5, Demokrati 4, Republika 4

Now it's:

National - 75.1% counted

Bratislava Region - 36.2% counted

[RGM2609]

The nazis are out, good riddance. I suppose one of the surprises of tonight is the fact that the Hungarian parties have shown a bit of life. I mean even if they don't make it, they will still have come rather close. Oh and OLANO seems to have found itself a new stronghold, what is up in Kezmarok?

[Estrella]

80% counted. Smer 23.7, Hlas 15.5, PS 15.3, OĽANO 9.5, KDH 7.2, SNS 5.8, SaS 5.5, Republika 5.0, Szövetség 4.9, Demokrati 2.8, Sme rodina 2.3, ĽSNS 0.9, Commies 0.4, Pirates 0.3, Modrí 0.3, MF etc 0.2, everyone else <0.1

So it's gonna be PS second, SNS in, Republika out.

[Storr]

80% counted. Smer 23.7, Hlas 15.5, PS 15.3, OĽANO 9.5, KDH 7.2, SNS 5.8, SaS 5.5, Republika 5.0, Szövetség 4.9, Demokrati 2.8, Sme rodina 2.3, ĽSNS 0.9, Commies 0.4, Pirates 0.3, Modrí 0.3, MF etc 0.2, everyone else <0.1

So it's gonna be PS second, SNS in, Republika out.

Do you think it's possible this plays out like 2010 where a coalition government is formed, despite Smer winning the plurality?

[Estrella]

80% counted. Smer 23.7, Hlas 15.5, PS 15.3, OĽANO 9.5, KDH 7.2, SNS 5.8, SaS 5.5, Republika 5.0, Szövetség 4.9, Demokrati 2.8, Sme rodina 2.3, ĽSNS 0.9, Commies 0.4, Pirates 0.3, Modrí 0.3, MF etc 0.2, everyone else <0.1

So it's gonna be PS second, SNS in, Republika out.

Do you think it's possible this plays out like 2010 where a coalition government is formed, despite Smer winning the plurality?

Probably not, but it's up still in the air.

The nazis are out, good riddance. I suppose one of the surprises of tonight is the fact that the Hungarian parties have shown a bit of life. I mean even if they don't make it, they will still have come rather close. Oh and OLANO seems to have found itself a new stronghold, what is up in Kezmarok?

It looks like Alliance cannibalized basically all voters of Hungarian Forum and the Most part of Modrí-Most, plus Sme rodina (who apparently had quite a lot of Hungarian voters as a socon populist party without the history of Smer/SNS). As for Kežmarok... idk but it's hilarious.

[RGM2609]

That reminded me of Dzurinda...lol, just stay home and write books damn it.

[Estrella]

The count is up to 90% now, but only 48% in Bratislava where PS is winning 34% and SaS 14%.  Together with expats there's still some 300,000 votes left to count. There shouldn't be any big changes, but PS will probably rise to somewhere close to 17% and SaS perhaps over 6%.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

PS at 16.4% with 95.7% in. If things continue at this rate they'll be at somewhere between 16.8% and 17.0% in the end, which is probably about 31-32 seats.

[Storr]

For what his words are worth (not much), Pellegrini said this at the Hlas election night press conference:

"...Peter Pellegrini did not directly comment on any potential combination of parties that could form a government coalition with his Hlas party. However, he assumes that Fico, as the winner, will call him first.

However, Pellegrini is still convinced that two ex-prime ministers in the government is not an optimal situation, but nothing prevents the creation of such a coalition. They will consider a possible offer.

Pellegrini emphasized that any decision will not be his decision only, but the decision of the party presidency. He thanked the voters for their trust and, apart from Smer, he also congratulated every party that got into parliament."

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

For what his words are worth (not much), Pellegrini said this at the Hlas election night press conference:

"...Peter Pellegrini did not directly comment on any potential combination of parties that could form a government coalition with his Hlas party. However, he assumes that Fico, as the winner, will call him first.

However, Pellegrini is still convinced that two ex-prime ministers in the government is not an optimal situation, but nothing prevents the creation of such a coalition. They will consider a possible offer.

Pellegrini emphasized that any decision will not be his decision only, but the decision of the party presidency. He thanked the voters for their trust and, apart from Smer, he also congratulated every party that got into parliament."

...refusing to congratulate Smer is interesting, and that statement really does read like he'd prefer PS. But as Estrella has discussed before, trusting anything a slovak politician says regarding who they'll form government with is for fools

[Red Velvet]

Yay! The Social-Democratic SMER has won over the liberal PS.

[S019]

Yay! The Social-Democratic SMER has won over the liberal PS.

I don’t know why covering up and lying about the murder of journalists excites you so much. Also SMER is barely “social democratic” in anything but name and their likeliest coalition partner is the far right, right-wing nationalist SNS, hardly “social democratic.” In fact, SNS has readily been one of SMER’s coalition partners, showing they are not social democratic in anything other than name. SMER also has long a history of xenophobic, Islamophobic, and homophobic rhetoric. I honestly don’t know why you don’t support Bolsonaro, it seems you’d be right at home in his party!

[Red Velvet]

Yay! The Social-Democratic SMER has won over the liberal PS.

I don’t know why covering up and lying about the murder of journalists excites you so much. Also SMER is barely “social democratic” in anything but name and their likeliest coalition partner is the far right, right-wing nationalist SNS, hardly “social democratic.” In fact, SNS has readily been one of SMER’s coalition partners, showing they are not social democratic in anything other than name. SMER also has long a history of xenophobic, Islamophobic, and homophobic rhetoric. I honestly don’t know why you don’t support Bolsonaro, it seems you’d be right at home in his party!

It’s always so funny to see how you liberals deal with losing to actual leftists. Now even Social-Democratic parties are “far-right” if they don’t 100% align with liberal agenda.

I don’t think you understand politics, or maybe you’re deliberately ill-intended. Leftism and liberalism aren’t synonymous. A majority of people in this forum are liberals who for some weird reason feel uncomfortable with this word even if it characterizes what they believe in.

I am NOT a liberal, I strongly identify with hard nationalism AND left-wing politics. Reason why a left-wing nationalist party like SMER social-democrats is exactly what I would vote for if I were in Slovakia.

I feel like you people have the impression US rules and logic work for the world that you can talk about clearly liberal values as if they were “leftism” and fool a lot of people because leftist label maybe sounds cooler and edgier to you, idk.

You would call actual communists from cold war era “right-wingers” for not being liberal enough for your fake ~leftism~ parameter lmao

[Logical]

Expat vote result is pretty funny
PS 62
Sas 11
Smer 6
O'LANO 4
SNS 4
KDH 3
Republika 3
Demokrati 2
Hlas 2