Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[RGM2609]

Considering the...issues you have presented about Fico, is the slow Smer rise just another aberration by the politico.eu average or are there other factors at play here?

[RGM2609]

Considering the...issues you have presented about Fico, is the slow Smer rise just another aberration by the politico.eu average or are there other factors at play here?

The government and Matovič himself have some pretty major... issues as well, and there's a segment of population that this sort of thing appeals to, especially now that SNS is almost dead and Harabin's party stalled at the starting line. 35ish% for Fico+Pellegrini (as the polls look now) would still be a meh result considering how disastrously incompetent the government looks*, and it's a testament to just how polarizing these people are, especially the former. There's also the fact that Smer gains seem to come from Hlas loses, which might just be due to Fico being in the news almost every day thanks to things like this, while Pelle is quiet.

* it's not actually that bad, they've managed the pandemic decently and, of course, fought against corruption, but when the only thing that's in the news are Matovič's rants and neverending coalition crises...

Thank you! Also, speaking about coalition crises, is it getting any better now that the madman is no longer in charge (at least officially) and is Heger building any independent profile or is he just a tool?

[RGM2609]

Considering the...issues you have presented about Fico, is the slow Smer rise just another aberration by the politico.eu average or are there other factors at play here?

The government and Matovič himself have some pretty major... issues as well, and there's a segment of population that this sort of thing appeals to, especially now that SNS is almost dead and Harabin's party stalled at the starting line. 35ish% for Fico+Pellegrini (as the polls look now) would still be a meh result considering how disastrously incompetent the government looks*, and it's a testament to just how polarizing these people are, especially the former. There's also the fact that Smer gains seem to come from Hlas loses, which might just be due to Fico being in the news almost every day thanks to things like this, while Pelle is quiet.

* it's not actually that bad, they've managed the pandemic decently and, of course, fought against corruption, but when the only thing that's in the news are Matovič's rants and neverending coalition crises...

Thank you! Also, speaking about coalition crises, is it getting any better now that the madman is no longer in charge (at least officially) and is Heger building any independent profile or is he just a tool?

It's not getting any better, Matovič keeps lashing out and doing stupid sh-t just like when he was PM and while Heger seems fairly intelligent and competent, he's just a tool. The strange thing is that maybe, just maybe, I can see this coalition lasting for most of the term. They've survived a year and a half through a series of very bad crises, perhaps they will survive a year or two more.

Jesus, what a wasted opportunity... Seeing that Kolikova has left ZL, will ZL demand their Ministry back or do they have no choice with their 4 MPs?

[RGM2609]

Considering the...issues you have presented about Fico, is the slow Smer rise just another aberration by the politico.eu average or are there other factors at play here?

The government and Matovič himself have some pretty major... issues as well, and there's a segment of population that this sort of thing appeals to, especially now that SNS is almost dead and Harabin's party stalled at the starting line. 35ish% for Fico+Pellegrini (as the polls look now) would still be a meh result considering how disastrously incompetent the government looks*, and it's a testament to just how polarizing these people are, especially the former. There's also the fact that Smer gains seem to come from Hlas loses, which might just be due to Fico being in the news almost every day thanks to things like this, while Pelle is quiet.

* it's not actually that bad, they've managed the pandemic decently and, of course, fought against corruption, but when the only thing that's in the news are Matovič's rants and neverending coalition crises...

Thank you! Also, speaking about coalition crises, is it getting any better now that the madman is no longer in charge (at least officially) and is Heger building any independent profile or is he just a tool?

It's not getting any better, Matovič keeps lashing out and doing stupid sh-t just like when he was PM and while Heger seems fairly intelligent and competent, he's just a tool. The strange thing is that maybe, just maybe, I can see this coalition lasting for most of the term. They've survived a year and a half through a series of very bad crises, perhaps they will survive a year or two more.

Jesus, what a wasted opportunity... Seeing that Kolikova has left ZL, will ZL demand their Ministry back or do they have no choice with their 4 MPs?

A wasted opportunity for sure, but even if the only thing the government achieves is to get rid of the mafia infestation, it will have been worth it. As for ZĽ getting a second minister, Matovič seemed to care more about that than the party itself out of spite at SaS, but he has now found a new Shiny Object and ZĽ... well, they're (checks Wikipedia) at 1.7% in the polls lol.

Rip ZL, probably the best of the parliamentary parties. And also, getting rid of mafia does not achieve much if they're so unpopular they are succeeded by a...mafia government. Thank you for your answers, eastern European politics are fascinating!

[RGM2609]

Is there any party other than Smer likely to oppose this arrest?

[RGM2609]

So the government is likely to fall? And if so what next?

[RGM2609]

My question would be, what would you say the odds are of a government not including Smer following the election? Conversely, if Slovakia does end up with a Smer-led government, would Fico as Prime Minister be acceptable to the other parties?

[RGM2609]

Thanks a lot! Since you mentioned Sme Rodina, how did they manage to shield themselves from the electoral consequences of being in that mess of a government? And I understand that they don't really exist on the pro/anti Smer division line and didn't get their votes based on that, but shouldn't their likely switching of sides following the election be at least somewhat controversial?

[RGM2609]

Will Heger now try to do anything to salvage his failed party? Is there anything he could do, really? Could he try to attach himself to another party? It seems to me like too many important individuals joined for it to just go down quietly

[RGM2609]

Genuine question: is Matovic realizing he doesn't like politics anymore and trying to get himself kicked out of Parliament?

[RGM2609]

Thanks for your reply! On the coalition thing, if Hlas were to come in second after Smer, wouldn't they rather try to form some sort of Frankenstein alliance so Pellegrini becomes PM rather than be stuck as Fico's "partners"?

[RGM2609]

Great post! Obviously a tricky question, but if you had to choose one, which party would you bet on being the victim of the classic Eastern European "20% polling miss"? (in either direction)

Also can foreign nationals apply for OLaNO's lottery? Could use a new t shirt!

[RGM2609]

I am curious why the SNS is so much more acceptable than Republika? Isn't it fanatically pro-Russian, conspiracist and also filled with ex-Nazis?

[RGM2609]

My results:
Modri-Most - 81%
PS - 75%
Pirati - 70%
SaS - 69%
Dems - 60%
Alliance - 55%
OLaNO - 54%
KDH - 52%
SDKU-DS - 51%
SR - 48%
Hlas - 46%
SNS - 44%
Smer - 40%
Republika - 37%
SHO - 33%
SOS - 29%

So I guess I'd be in the 1% Dzurinda diehards, lol.

[RGM2609]

If the Hungarian Alliance is to somehow make it in, for whom are they a more likely partner?

[RGM2609]

Good luck today, hopefully, the right side prevails in what is probably the starkest ideological and cultural battle I've seen in a long time. And thanks for keeping us updated throughout the entire madness!

[RGM2609]

Should I even ask how you and people around you voted lmao? But if you've noticed any trends IRL I think that would be interesting!

[RGM2609]

Given that all 7 parties are awarded seats, it would seem like Matovic passed the 7% coalition threshold ugh

[RGM2609]

I know that OLANO is not quite the corruption-fighting party it claims to be, but even so, I have trouble seeing them joining Fico in government. Not to mention it would be political suicide for both.

[RGM2609]

As far as I can tell, aren't just a tad over 100,000 votes in? Given that there were 3 million votes in 2020...

[RGM2609]

Do we have any crosstabs so far?

[RGM2609]

It would seem that the Putinist side wasn't large enough to sustain 3 parties, and Smer ended up cannibalizing their prospective partners. But ofc, only 300,000 votes in out of the expected over 3 million.

[RGM2609]

I think a lot of Republika voters also opted for the SNS (polling at 2-3% until a month ago or something), though I don't exactly know why.

[RGM2609]

What's up with that OLANO district lol? What kind of people live there?

[RGM2609]

What's up with that OLANO district lol? What kind of people live there?

It's Revúca, a deeply rural postindustrial hellscape where they're currently 26 votes ahead of Smer

Interstingly, they only barely won it in their 2020 romp. Shifting coalitions maybe?