Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v2

[GeneralMacArthur]

This Ukraine matter and the Email scandal are so different in so many ways.

1. Hillary actually DID use a private server
2. There was an FBI investigation into the matter
3. She refused to apologize for it even when public sentiment was that she f***ed up.
4. Hillary had much more corruption-related baggage than Biden
5. Biden is not the main subject of this matter, his SON, TRUMP, and GULIANI are
6. Biden is already pushing back better than Hillary by addressing it only in terms of what Trump did
7. This matter started with a whistleblower complaint against TRUMP, not Biden
8. Hillary was a woman, many are predisposed into being suspicious and critical of women in power

I can go on and on but I think I made my point. This is nothing like the Email scandal, which, although overblown, was actually a matter of legitimate concern. There is no evidence here that ANYTHING even occurred. 

It also doesn't help that the actual scandal itself is Jimmy-Dore-tier bad.

"Biden forced Ukraine to fire a prosecutor who was investigating his son"

When you dig a little more, "oh the prosecutor wasn't investigating Hunter Biden, he was investigating Zlochevsky, the guy who owned the company Hunter Biden worked for."  OK.

1) The investigation against Zlochevsky was for tax evasion and corruption.
2) The investigation was not ongoing, it had been opened and shut before the prosecutor ever got into office.
3) The prosecutor was notorious for NOT prosecuting cases, which was GOOD for Zlochevsky.
4) Biden, the Obama administration, and multiple other countries have all said they wanted the prosecutor fired for being extremely corrupt.
5) It wasn't Biden forcing Ukraine to fire him, it was the entire international community.  Biden was just the guy to actually get it done.

So the prosecutor was not in any way shape or form investigating Biden's son, and even if he was, we know for a fact that isn't why Biden wanted him fired.

It's this sort of six-degrees-of-separation BS that appeals to tinfoil hat types but not real voters.

[Mr. Smith]

This Ukraine matter and the Email scandal are so different in so many ways.

1. Hillary actually DID use a private server
2. There was an FBI investigation into the matter
3. She refused to apologize for it even when public sentiment was that she f***ed up.
4. Hillary had much more corruption-related baggage than Biden
5. Biden is not the main subject of this matter, his SON, TRUMP, and GULIANI are
6. Biden is already pushing back better than Hillary by addressing it only in terms of what Trump did
7. This matter started with a whistleblower complaint against TRUMP, not Biden
8. Hillary was a woman, many are predisposed into being suspicious and critical of women in power

I can go on and on but I think I made my point. This is nothing like the Email scandal, which, although overblown, was actually a matter of legitimate concern. There is no evidence here that ANYTHING even occurred.  

Counters

1. So did Colin Powell and plenty of other Bush admin. people, no one bothered them.
2. The FBI Investigation happened because the GOP wouldn't shut up about it. If you don't think there's a possibility some agency (CIA/FBI) probes the Ukraine for similar reasons, you're being naive.
3. She did apologize, plenty of times, no one believed her at that point, and it's not like Trump or Biden have apologized for anything...apologies are weaknesses at this point!
4. Not really, not to say she she was some kind of angel, but she was hardly more than the average insider.
5. Obama was the original subject of Benghazi until it became more profitable to foist onto Hillary. Time will tell if the same thing happens with Biden.
6. Has he though? I'm not seeing it.
7. See No. 6
8. Somewhat valid point, but hardly the end all.

[Illini Moderate]

This Ukraine matter and the Email scandal are so different in so many ways.

1. Hillary actually DID use a private server
2. There was an FBI investigation into the matter
3. She refused to apologize for it even when public sentiment was that she f***ed up.
4. Hillary had much more corruption-related baggage than Biden
5. Biden is not the main subject of this matter, his SON, TRUMP, and GULIANI are
6. Biden is already pushing back better than Hillary by addressing it only in terms of what Trump did
7. This matter started with a whistleblower complaint against TRUMP, not Biden
8. Hillary was a woman, many are predisposed into being suspicious and critical of women in power

I can go on and on but I think I made my point. This is nothing like the Email scandal, which, although overblown, was actually a matter of legitimate concern. There is no evidence here that ANYTHING even occurred.  

Counters

1. So did Colin Powell and plenty of other Bush admin. people, no one bothered them.
2. The FBI Investigation happened because the GOP wouldn't shut up about it. If you don't think there's a possibility some agency (CIA/FBI) probes the Ukraine for similar reasons, you're being naive.
3. She did apologize, plenty of times, no one believed her at that point, and it's not like Trump or Biden have apologized for anything...apologies are weaknesses at this point!
4. Not really, not to say she she was some kind of angel, but she was hardly more than the average insider.
5. Obama was the original subject of Benghazi until it became more profitable to foist onto Hillary. Time will tell if the same thing happens with Biden.
6. Has he though? I'm not seeing it.
7. See No. 6
8. Somewhat valid point, but hardly the end all.

I get your reasoning and my post wasn't to point out Hillary's flaws, but rather to point out things that shape the public perception. Her initial refusal to apologize, and her perceived excessive baggage definitely put her in a worse position than Biden.

Also there is a difference in Obama being the initial subject of Benghazi as he was not Hillary's political opponent who was levying the charges. No matter how hard Trump wants to hit Biden on this it will always be tied to his wrongdoings, even if it somehow turns out Biden did something corrupt.

I'm not arguing this on the merits, merely pointing out how different they are in terms of how they can be presented in attacks and on the news

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://www.justsecurity.org/66290/the-swiftboating-of-joe-biden/

Even some of the best analysis that explains the falsity of the Trump-Giuliani allegations has fallen into a trap. The Trump-Giuliani allegations are called “exaggerated,” while others write that “no evidence has surfaced to support Mr. Trump’s claim.”

What’s missing from those types of assessments is evidence that actually points in the opposite direction. That became clearer to us as researchers when we prepared a chronology of events published on Just Security earlier today. The timeline covers developments from November 2013 to the present, including Biden’s work in Ukraine and Trump and Giuliani’s actions in what has become known as “Ukrainegate.”

The publicly available evidence suggests that the Vice President, working in tandem with other U.S. officials such as Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt, pursued anti-corruption efforts in Ukraine that would increase the legal risks to the Ukrainian gas company, Burisma Holdings, where Biden’s son, Hunter, served on the board. The U.S. government’s efforts, led by Biden, explicitly and specifically targeted the office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine not only for its failure to pursue investigations – but also for blocking an investigation into allegations concerning the owner of Burisma.

The points are:

1. The Burisma investigation did not simply lie dormant under General Prosecutor Shokin. His office appears to have engaged in a cover-up to protect Burisma’s owner, Mykola Zlochevskiy, from a British investigation.

2. In line with the EU, the IMF, and other Western donors, the U.S. government, led by Biden, publicly and privately called for Shokin to step down for his failure to address corruption.

3. Biden and Pyatt gave back-to-back speeches in 2015, in which the ambassador specifically castigated officials in the Office of Prosecutor General Shokin for the Burisma cover-up and called for those officials to be investigated and removed from office for those actions.

4. The Special Prosecutor who replaced Shokin, Yuriy Lutsenko, initially took a hard line against Burisma

Discuss.

[Suburbia]

Did VP Biden try to stop an investigation of his son's business dealings?

Does Sherrod Brown get into the race?

He's blue collar, white male, could appeal to the same Biden white ethnic demographic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, hopefully.

[Meatball Ron]

No - but if he were 'finished,' it would have everything to do with Warren becoming the front-runner and nothing to do with the BS Ukraine situation (Trump is the pol implicated in that, not Biden).

0% chance Sherrod Brown enters the race. Besides, my guess would be if he endorses, it's Warren - he's a lot more aligned with her ideologically even if he seems more like Biden due to surface-level traits.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Did VP Biden try to stop an investigation of his son's business dealings?

Does Sherrod Brown get into the race?

He's blue collar, white male, could appeal to the same Biden white ethnic demographic.

1) No.  There was no investigation into his son's business dealings.  There was an investigation into a guy who worked at the same company as his son, the investigation was for corruption and Biden fired the prosecutor for not pursuing the case.

2) No.  Sherrod Brown has similar positions and appeal to Warren.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In order for GOP to get on board with impeachment, the GOP feels that there wasnt a fair investigation into Biden and his son Ukraine dealings. No FBI investigation.

But, Biden's slide in the polls in IA and NH, which are presidential battlegrounds is devestating to his campaign, Biden is corrupted. Warren has female appeal and she shouldnt be underestimated, she beat Scott Brown in 2012

[538Electoral]

No.

[Sestak]

Did VP Biden try to stop an investigation of his son's business dealings?

Does Sherrod Brown get into the race?

He's blue collar, white male, could appeal to the same Biden white ethnic demographic.

1) No.  There was no investigation into his son's business dealings.  There was an investigation into a guy who worked at the same company as his son, the investigation was for corruption and Biden fired the prosecutor for not pursuing the case.

2) No.  Sherrod Brown has similar positions and appeal to Warren.

Positions, perhaps.

Appeal, no.

When will you people realize that these two things are not very strongly connected for the vast majority of voters?

[Orser67]

OP's question really makes me curious how Trump's attempts to get Ukraine to investigate Biden is being covered in the right-wing media.

[AN63093]

I don't know if Biden is "finished" or not, but even if he was, it's too late for someone else to get in the race by this point.  If Biden isn't it, it'll be Warren.  It could've been Harris, and probably would've been, but she couldn't keep her momentum and her window has more or less closed by this point.

As late as Clinton you still had people jumping in the race in the fall (Oct '91, in his case), but those days are long gone and the timeline is significantly accelerated these days.

So this is it.  We have our field, for better or worse.

[President Johnson]

Uncle Joe still has the most reasonable path to the nomination. He could afford losing Iowa and New Hampshire, where they are must-wins for Warren and Sanders. If Biden wins Iowa, and he has at least a 40% chance, there is not much that could stop him.

If anyone needed to replace Biden for some reason, it needs to be Andrew Cuomo.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cuomo already tried to run, he was discouraged from running by Hillary

[President Johnson]

Cuomo already tried to run, he was discouraged from running by Hillary

What? Cuomo never planned to run, he ruled it out over a year ago.

[libertpaulian]

If Biden were to get out, Mayor Pete would be the perfect candidate to fill in the "Appeals to moderates and center-left voters" crowd.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Black support and Latino support would go to Beto,, due tp Buttigieg SSM issue. I like Beto and he is beginning to rise again, and like him as a Veep candidate

[SN2903]

Yes he is finished

[President Johnson]

Yes he is finished

January 20, 2025 or January 20, 2029

[GeneralMacArthur]

OP's question really makes me curious how Trump's attempts to get Ukraine to investigate Biden is being covered in the right-wing media.

There was no such attempt, but there should have been because Biden is guilty of high treason.

[morgankingsley]

Does Sherrod Brown get into the race?

No

[Orser67]

OP's question really makes me curious how Trump's attempts to get Ukraine to investigate Biden is being covered in the right-wing media.

There was no such attempt, but there should have been because Biden is guilty of high treason.

Yeah, that sounds about right

[Pericles]

This Ukraine 'scandal' is utter BS and merely an attempt by Trump to manufacture a scandal, given he has been exposed I think people will sympathize with Biden. I expect Biden's poll numbers to go up in the next few weeks, though the fundamentals of the race haven't been changed and I still think Biden is more likely than not to lose the nomination.

[President Johnson]

Uncle Joe was on Jimmy Kimmel today:

I might be biased, but I don't know how you can't like him, even if you don't agree with everything.