2nd DEM Debate Thread: July 30 & 31, Detroit (MI), CNN

[henster]

The moment Tulsi comes after anyone the Assad bomb is just gonna be dropped on her. I just can't see her withstanding sustained attacks on her record. Tulsi is best when she stays above the fray and sticks to her anti-war message.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'm hoping Kamala can stay away from Tulsi who has come at her on twitter a few times recently. Tulsi will be in desperation mode, looking for a moment to get some heat to get to 130k and 2% in polling. Kamala isn't an easy mark like Beto, but still shouldn't get into it with her if it can be avoided.

Someone hating Tulsi much?

I mean he's just stating facts, Tulsi will struggle to get 2% in polling four times and she needs a moment

[gf20202]

I'm hoping Kamala can stay away from Tulsi who has come at her on twitter a few times recently. Tulsi will be in desperation mode, looking for a moment to get some heat to get to 130k and 2% in polling. Kamala isn't an easy mark like Beto, but still shouldn't get into it with her if it can be avoided.

Someone hating Tulsi much?

Guh? I prefer Kamala and am threatened by Tulsi's ability to impact her. If anything, that's respecting Tulsi's skill as a debater and orator. How am I hating on her to state the situation she is in in terms of pressure to make moment to qualify for the third debate? If Tulsi isn't desperate, her entire political operation is dumb.

In other I obviously hate Tulsi news,  recent fundraising pace looks to be good enough to actually hit 130k by August 28th. According to Tulsi's numbers, she got around 700 unique donors a day over the last five days, and is at 101,041. She should barely make it over the 130k at that rate, probably the 11th and final candidate to do so in time for the third debates. Far bigger climb is to hit 2% in four qualifying polls in time window, hence the desperate need to create a moment.

[Tender Branson]

Here's my draw prediction for tomorrow:

July 30: Booker, O'Rourke, Gillibrand, Sanders, Buttigieg, Castro, Biden, Gabbard, Inslee, Bullock

July 31: Delaney, Ryan, Harris, De Blasio, Bennet, Warren, Hickenlooper, Yang, Williamson, Klobuchar

[henster]

So what happens when more than 10 qualify for the third debate? Do they split it up again with a smaller number on each night like five?

[PaperKooper]

So what happens when more than 10 qualify for the third debate? Do they split it up again with a smaller number on each night like five?

Yes, they'll break it up into two days again if more than 10 candidates qualify. 

[gf20202]

So what happens when more than 10 qualify for the third debate? Do they split it up again with a smaller number on each night like five?

There would be a debate of six and a debate of five. It's very unlikely though that Castro, Yang and Gabbard all hit 2% in four qualifying polls in the next 45 days.

[henster]

I think Biden, Harris, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg are locks. I have Beto, Booker & Klobuchar on the  bubble in that order. 7 or 8 would be really good # and we can finally have a substantive debate but Yang & Gabbard have a potential to mess things up by qualifying.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

How low would Biden's numbers have dwindled if he fell asleep at his first debate?

Haha imagine if it happens in the second debate!

Anyway I expect Harris and Buttigieg to rise even higher. They were the most accomplished debaters out of the first set. Maybe I'm massively underestimating Warren but she had mediocre performances in 2012 and 2018. Her debate performance a few weeks ago was decent, but nothing particularly standout, and she arguably failed due to not giving the extremely excellent performance that she could've gotten from being the only one in the Top 5 on that day. She basically got a B when she should have gone for an A+.

Slow Joe is going to slowly but surely trickle down. I think Bernie will bump up a bit when Warren and Bye-Done decline.

[gf20202]

Amy Klobuchar revealed today that she is at 100,000 unique donors. The campaign had previously said she had 100,000 donors in April but that figure was obviously not of the unique variety. She's at the same place/pace about as Tulsi, where she likely will get to 130k by August 28th but it's not guaranteed.

[Askew]

I think Biden, Harris, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg are locks. I have Beto, Booker & Klobuchar on the  bubble in that order. 7 or 8 would be really good # and we can finally have a substantive debate but Yang & Gabbard have a potential to mess things up by qualifying.

Castro already met the donor threshold. He's more likely than Castro

[Lognog]

how many of the candidates reached the polling and donor quotas so far, and who is close

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

how many of the candidates reached the polling and donor quotas so far, and who is close

21 have reached either of those. The 21st is Mike Gravel. His campaign is fighting tooth and nail to try and get him in (since the DNC says the max is 20)

[gf20202]

how many of the candidates reached the polling and donor quotas so far, and who is close

For the debates on July 30th and 31st, 21 candidates have reached either or both. 19 from the first debate with Eric Swalwell having dropped out + Steve Bullock + Mike Gravel. Bullock is getting the last slot over Gravel because he has more qualifying polls.

For the September 12th debate, just five have hit both required metrics -- Biden, Harris, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg. Beto needs 1 more qualifying poll of 2%. Booker needs 1 more qualifying poll of 2% and 15,000 more unique donors, which he will get. Klobuchar needs 1 more qualifying poll of 2% and 30,000 more unique donors. Castro and Yang have met the unique donor qualification but need 3 more polls of 2%. That's 7 essential locks, one very likely and 2 coin flips. Tulsi is the the only darkhorse with a chance otherwise, given that's she on pace for 130,000 unique donors but needs four qualifying polls of 2% in the next 45 days when she's only got one such poll in the entire year.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Really a shame about Steve Bullock's third debate prospects. He deserves to be a heavyweight even if he isn't my preferred candidate. Where does he stand in donor numbers?

Also would think the debate deserves some Marianne and Inslee but I'm resigned to accepting that they won't be there.

The eliminations should just be the useless congressmen, the Colorado people and maaaybe the New York people (though probably Yang before them). 12 reasonable contenders plus O'Rourke and Yang would be more fair.

[gf20202]

Really a shame about Steve Bullock's third debate prospects. He deserves to be a heavyweight even if he isn't my preferred candidate. Where does he stand in donor numbers?

He isn't even at 65,000 donors yet, so there's no real chance.

Beto got his fourth qualifying poll so he is in the September debate. Booker is in too as long as he gets the last 15,000 unique donors, which he should. So seven are in for sure in September.

[NyIndy]

My hope is that Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Yang and Castro all qualify so the debate is 11 people so we can get 5 or 6 people a night.

[Blue3]

Really a shame about Steve Bullock's third debate prospects. He deserves to be a heavyweight even if he isn't my preferred candidate. Where does he stand in donor numbers?

Also would think the debate deserves some Marianne and Inslee but I'm resigned to accepting that they won't be there.

The eliminations should just be the useless congressmen, the Colorado people and maaaybe the New York people (though probably Yang before them). 12 reasonable contenders plus O'Rourke and Yang would be more fair.

If he was serious about running, he should have done his research and played to win. If he actually wanted to win, well this show he didn't do his research and has a bad strategy, so then I'm glad he's not the nominee.

[beesley]

What time is the debate draw?

[gf20202]

What time is the debate draw?

Thursday 8 PM EST/5 PM PST on CNN.

[gf20202]

They finally announced how they splitting the candidates. They are doing three random draws from three tiers.

As per CNN/https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/17/politics/democratic-debate-lineup-draw-live/index.html

The First Draw will include 10 candidates: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan and author Marianne Williamson.

The Second Draw will include six candidates: New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke and businessman Andrew Yang.

The Final Draw will include four candidates: Former Vice President Joe Biden, California Sen. Kamala Harris, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

As a Harris supporter who way overthinks things, I think her best possible pull would be:

Night Two
From lower-tier: Bennet, de Blasio, Delaney, Gillibrand and Williamson
From second-tier: Beto, Buttigieg, Yang
From third-tier: Biden

This gets the most eyeballs on her with the least amount of threat from someone coming at her directly.

[Gass3268]

This system is much better than NBC's.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1151619323255054336

[PaperKooper]

Big setback for the Gravelanche is finally official. 

[Mr. Morden]

Which combination of splits for the top tier do people most want, and which one do they least want?

Possibilities:
1) Biden and Harris are on one night, while Sanders and Warren are on the other.
2) Biden and Sanders are on one night, while Harris and Warren are on the other.
3) Biden and Warren are on one night, while Harris and Sanders are on the other.

(I ignore the question of which group goes on Night 1 vs. Night 2.)