Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Famous Mortimer]

^ this is why I always believed that Israel's center-left and left need to double down on the Zionist ethos while also becoming more leftist on economics.

I think it is a good combo to win back votes as it matches the right-wing nationalist-populism with a form of left-wing nationalist-populism.

I'm an economically left-wing nationalist myself so I would love it if Israel adopted that ideology but I don't think they will. Labor actually tried to this twice under Peretz and Yacimovich and both times the results were underwhelming.

[Hnv1]

^ this is why I always believed that Israel's center-left and left need to double down on the Zionist ethos while also becoming more leftist on economics.

I think it is a good combo to win back votes as it matches the right-wing nationalist-populism with a form of left-wing nationalist-populism.

Why buy the fake when you can get the real deal? Who ever wants nationalistic ethos and is not religious has Likud and B&W they wouldn’t need a pale version. Plus left wing economic populism is not such a hot product in Israeli society. Most Likud voters have very little sympathy for unions or taxation.

Wasnt shas in the 90's basically the choice for Left-wing populism and a nationalistic security policy and one of the reasons why they did so even well among the poor (non-haredi) mizrahim?
I could imagine many mizrahim voting for this kind of party, one that rejects the (perceived) ashkenazi liberalism of B&W and Labor both on economic and security issues.
There must be massive untapped potential for the left among poor mizrahim who currently vote for the likud, a party that goes completely against their economic interest.

What you call left wing populism isn’t really applicable in Israel. Shas rode more on the culture war, there was little concrete economic messages there

[Walmart_shopper]

^ this is why I always believed that Israel's center-left and left need to double down on the Zionist ethos while also becoming more leftist on economics.

I think it is a good combo to win back votes as it matches the right-wing nationalist-populism with a form of left-wing nationalist-populism.

Why buy the fake when you can get the real deal? Who ever wants nationalistic ethos and is not religious has Likud and B&W they wouldn’t need a pale version. Plus left wing economic populism is not such a hot product in Israeli society. Most Likud voters have very little sympathy for unions or taxation.

And how do you even make economic and social justice a massive election issue without also taking a meaningful steps to end the injustice (to both Israelis and Palestinians) of the occupation? To separate those requires Orwellian cognitive dissonance and we already have more than enough of that in our politics. Americans have a quaint notion of today's Zionism as this kind of underdog heroism of persecuted Jews making a way for themselves in a regional oasis of democracy and tolerance. No, actually, Zionism today is the border police evacuating Arab apartment buildings in East Jerusalem so that rich and utterly unpersecuted American settlers can move in and live in new government-subsidized Jewish housing. If Meretz of all people can't find the sense to stand against that then the Jewish left isn't just a phantom but is actually a dangerous and willing tool for the right.

[Famous Mortimer]

^ this is why I always believed that Israel's center-left and left need to double down on the Zionist ethos while also becoming more leftist on economics.

I think it is a good combo to win back votes as it matches the right-wing nationalist-populism with a form of left-wing nationalist-populism.

Why buy the fake when you can get the real deal? Who ever wants nationalistic ethos and is not religious has Likud and B&W they wouldn’t need a pale version. Plus left wing economic populism is not such a hot product in Israeli society. Most Likud voters have very little sympathy for unions or taxation.

Wasnt shas in the 90's basically the choice for Left-wing populism and a nationalistic security policy and one of the reasons why they did so even well among the poor (non-haredi) mizrahim?
I could imagine many mizrahim voting for this kind of party, one that rejects the (perceived) ashkenazi liberalism of B&W and Labor both on economic and security issues.
There must be massive untapped potential for the left among poor mizrahim who currently vote for the likud, a party that goes completely against their economic interest.

Shas only became hawkish in the last 20 years. In the 90s, Shas was mostly agnostic on the peace issue, that's why they were able to sit in both Labor and Likud and national unity governments. Today the idea of Shas propping up a Labor government, while not completely ridiculous, is very unlikely. Like fug, forget not being hawkish, Shas wasn't even officially Zionist until like 10 years ago.

[Famous Mortimer]

^ this is why I always believed that Israel's center-left and left need to double down on the Zionist ethos while also becoming more leftist on economics.

I think it is a good combo to win back votes as it matches the right-wing nationalist-populism with a form of left-wing nationalist-populism.

Why buy the fake when you can get the real deal? Who ever wants nationalistic ethos and is not religious has Likud and B&W they wouldn’t need a pale version. Plus left wing economic populism is not such a hot product in Israeli society. Most Likud voters have very little sympathy for unions or taxation.

And how do you even make economic and social justice a massive election issue without also taking a meaningful steps to end the injustice (to both Israelis and Palestinians) of the occupation? To separate those requires Orwellian cognitive dissonance and we already have more than enough of that in our politics. Americans have a quaint notion of today's Zionism as this kind of underdog heroism of persecuted Jews making a way for themselves in a regional oasis of democracy and tolerance. No, actually, Zionism today is the border police evacuating Arab apartment buildings in East Jerusalem so that rich and utterly unpersecuted American settlers can move in and live in new government-subsidized Jewish housing. If Meretz of all people can't find the sense to stand against that then the Jewish left isn't just a phantom but is actually a dangerous and willing tool for the right.

It's pretty easy to support the occupation but also give more welfare to Israeli citizens. You may not think it's morally right but it's perfectly easy to envision.

[America Needs R'hllor]

In an interview, Stav Shaffir said that under her, the party will become truly democratic and that she'll shift the debate to real issues- breaking the religion-state status quo and stopping the "useless debate" about conscripting Haredim to the army, instead talking about bringing them into the job market. She added that no one actually has interest in conscripting them and that we'll need to reach a new agreement of "live and let live".

She continues to show that she's the only candidate running on a real change platform- Peretz is literally running on bringing the party back to the 2000s and freezing it, appealing to voters' survival instinct, while Shmuli is saying there needs to be "a new generation" but is just running on the status quo. She's the only one willing to stand against the corrupt and powerful both without and within (introducing a bill that'd make labour unions more transperant and democratic, she was the only one in the party to support it). She's also the only one running on a message of shifting the debate and reforming the party. The others want the status quo- and that only means death. Gabbay was an outsider, but he didn't really change anything about the party, he was just more blatant about trying to appeal to the right. I truly believe she's the only hope for the party, and even she may fail, but it's better than not changing anything.

.... So of course, she's third in basically all the polls, and will almost certainly lose. She says the race is tight and is making an effort to recruit as many new voters to the party as possible in these last hours before the deadline, but I'm sure she realizes this too. If Shmuli\Peretz win, I think she'll need to convince me to vote Labour again, because the Israeli left needs change and they just won't provide it.

[DavidB.]

In an interview, Stav Shaffir said that under her, the party will become truly democratic and that she'll shift the debate to real issues- breaking the religion-state status quo and stopping the "useless debate" about conscripting Haredim to the army, instead talking about bringing them into the job market. She added that no one actually has interest in conscripting them and that we'll need to reach a new agreement of "live and let live".

This is actually really important and good.

[Walmart_shopper]

In an interview, Stav Shaffir said that under her, the party will become truly democratic and that she'll shift the debate to real issues- breaking the religion-state status quo and stopping the "useless debate" about conscripting Haredim to the army, instead talking about bringing them into the job market. She added that no one actually has interest in conscripting them and that we'll need to reach a new agreement of "live and let live".

This is actually really important and good.

Yes. The IDF has long said publicly that it has an overabundance of manpower. But still the draft debate does serve as a useful focal point for the broader discussion of how much we should demand Haredi integration. The draft debate has never really been about the draft, strictly speaking. It is about whether Israel should continue to support a growing sector that demands many things from society and professes that what they mainly give back in return is the "merit" of endless study of obscure Galatian rabbis and their ideas about how many times to dunk cups in mikvah water to make them kosher. Most Israelis don't think that we're getting a very good deal out of that.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Former PM Barak officially announced his new party. Also joining: prominent anti-Bibi businessman Kobi Richter, feminist activist and Orly Levy's number 3 Yifat Biton and former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Yair Golan.

Update: Biton just promised that the party will have full gender equality.

[danny]

Clearly what Israeli politics was missing was a centre-left anti Bibi party led by a former general...

[Walmart_shopper]

Clearly what Israeli politics was missing was a centre-left anti Bibi party led by a former general...

You cannot credibly claim that Blue and White is truly a center-left party. They can't even bring themselves to support a two-state solution and the author of the nation-state law is on their list. There is nothing "left" about that party. And Labor is lost somewhere in Avi Gabbay's annhilationist crazyland, so, yeah, actually, there is room for a truly center-left party with decent military backgrounds on the list.

[Walmart_shopper]

Former PM Barak officially announced his new party. Also joining: prominent anti-Bibi businessman Kobi Richter, feminist activist and Orly Levy's number 3 Yifat Biton and former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Yair Golan.

Update: Biton just promised that the party will have full gender equality.

It's probably already better than Labor and it doesn't even yet have a name.

[jaichind]

How many parties that is going to unite all anti-Netanyahu do you actually need ?  An would this not make Labor go below the threshold ?

[Walmart_shopper]

How many parties that is going to unite all anti-Netanyahu do you actually need ?

I think the calculation is that now that Liberman is pretty much set against Bibi as PM it opens up an amazing number of doors for these parties. The right-religious coalition is effectively dead since they won't get 61 seats without Liberman. That means that even if the Likud wins the next government will necessarily require a leftist or centrist party, or maybe morr than one of them. That gives even parties like Labor with only 4 or 5 seats a lot of leverage. You could easily see a non-Bibi Likud-led coalition with Liberman, Bennet, and Labor or Barak as junior partners.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Former PM Barak officially announced his new party. Also joining: prominent anti-Bibi businessman Kobi Richter, feminist activist and Orly Levy's number 3 Yifat Biton and former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Yair Golan.

Update: Biton just promised that the party will have full gender equality.

It's probably already better than Labor and it doesn't even yet have a name.

The narrative seems to be that this party will unite with Labour and Meretz. IF Barak can help raise the Israeli left back up, maybe he'll compensate for his bad history.

[Walmart_shopper]

Former PM Barak officially announced his new party. Also joining: prominent anti-Bibi businessman Kobi Richter, feminist activist and Orly Levy's number 3 Yifat Biton and former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Yair Golan.

Update: Biton just promised that the party will have full gender equality.

It's probably already better than Labor and it doesn't even yet have a name.

The narrative seems to be that this party will unite with Labour and Meretz. IF Barak can help raise the Israeli left back up, maybe he'll compensate for his bad history.

Channel 13 just releases this poll:

Likud: 32
KL: 32
Joint List 12
Yisrael Beytenu 7
Shas 6
UTJ 6
Barak 6
Meretz 6
Labor 5
Union of Right-Wing Parties 4
New Right 4

Liberman+Center-left 68
Right-religious 52

The Joint List and Barak are obviously giving the left a real advantage. But that assumes good Arab turnout and a dazzling debut for Barak's party. Interesting numbers, in any case. I assumed that Bibi's talk of cancelling the elections was typical Netanyahu clownery, but if they're getting anything close to these numbers in Likud polling then maybe it wasn't just typical Bibi melodrama after all.

[Oryxslayer]

Problem being that Lieberman wants B&W+Likud, and would never back a left government. If those numbers emerge, then yeah, Bibi has to go since there is no majority for him as PM, even though there may be a working Likud govt. However, I suspect these numbers are just like the B&W peak after Gantz joined with YA - a lot of hype but eventually things will come back to earth.

[jaichind]

So Otzma Yehudit has left the United Right? Will they run their own list and most likely pull both of them below the threshold ?

[Walmart_shopper]

Problem being that Lieberman wants B&W+Likud, and would never back a left government. If those numbers emerge, then yeah, Bibi has to go since there is no majority for him as PM, even though there may be a working Likud govt. However, I suspect these numbers are just like the B&W peak after Gantz joined with YA - a lot of hype but eventually things will come back to earth.

Of course in this particular poll the center-left has a majority without Liberman. But I agree with you that that seems a less likely result.

[Hnv1]

Former PM Barak officially announced his new party. Also joining: prominent anti-Bibi businessman Kobi Richter, feminist activist and Orly Levy's number 3 Yifat Biton and former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Yair Golan.

Update: Biton just promised that the party will have full gender equality.

It's probably already better than Labor and it doesn't even yet have a name.

The narrative seems to be that this party will unite with Labour and Meretz. IF Barak can help raise the Israeli left back up, maybe he'll compensate for his bad history.

Channel 13 just releases this poll:

Likud: 32
KL: 32
Joint List 12
Yisrael Beytenu 7
Shas 6
UTJ 6
Barak 6
Meretz 6
Labor 5
Union of Right-Wing Parties 4
New Right 4

Liberman+Center-left 68
Right-religious 52

The Joint List and Barak are obviously giving the left a real advantage. But that assumes good Arab turnout and a dazzling debut for Barak's party. Interesting numbers, in any case. I assumed that Bibi's talk of cancelling the elections was typical Netanyahu clownery, but if they're getting anything close to these numbers in Likud polling then maybe it wasn't just typical Bibi melodrama after all.

Junk poll. UTJ can’t lose 2 seats and the left is getting more seats ex nihilo

[Famous Mortimer]

Former PM Barak officially announced his new party. Also joining: prominent anti-Bibi businessman Kobi Richter, feminist activist and Orly Levy's number 3 Yifat Biton and former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Yair Golan.

Update: Biton just promised that the party will have full gender equality.

Moshe Kahlon's number 3 Yifat Biton*

[DavidB.]

So Otzma Yehudit has left the United Right? Will they run their own list and most likely pull both of them below the threshold ?

It's suspected that this is a tactic to receive better slots on the list - but who knows these days...

[Walmart_shopper]

Former PM Barak officially announced his new party. Also joining: prominent anti-Bibi businessman Kobi Richter, feminist activist and Orly Levy's number 3 Yifat Biton and former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Yair Golan.

Update: Biton just promised that the party will have full gender equality.

It's probably already better than Labor and it doesn't even yet have a name.

The narrative seems to be that this party will unite with Labour and Meretz. IF Barak can help raise the Israeli left back up, maybe he'll compensate for his bad history.

Channel 13 just releases this poll:

Likud: 32
KL: 32
Joint List 12
Yisrael Beytenu 7
Shas 6
UTJ 6
Barak 6
Meretz 6
Labor 5
Union of Right-Wing Parties 4
New Right 4

Liberman+Center-left 68
Right-religious 52

The Joint List and Barak are obviously giving the left a real advantage. But that assumes good Arab turnout and a dazzling debut for Barak's party. Interesting numbers, in any case. I assumed that Bibi's talk of cancelling the elections was typical Netanyahu clownery, but if they're getting anything close to these numbers in Likud polling then maybe it wasn't just typical Bibi melodrama after all.

Junk poll. UTJ can’t lose 2 seats and the left is getting more seats ex nihilo

It is just one poll. But Litzman is about to be indicted and Haredi parties drown in high turnout models. UTJ losing two seats is utterly realistic. The center-left winning a majority is less realistic, but that doesn't mean thst the poll is bad. Polls are snapshots and not predictions, as we all know by now. The Joint List being a joint list automatically grabs 2-3 seats from the right, assuming that Arab turnout won't be historically bad. Most polling shows that the the four mandates for Kulanu have been basically swallowed and haven't boosted the Likud at all. So there is 2-4 more seats. The splintering of the right wing parties probably doesn't help, either. The right-religious bloc got 65 seats in April. In this poll they have 59. Factor in all of the above and the results are obviously not "ex nihilo."

[America Needs R'hllor]

Former PM Barak officially announced his new party. Also joining: prominent anti-Bibi businessman Kobi Richter, feminist activist and Orly Levy's number 3 Yifat Biton and former Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Yair Golan.

Update: Biton just promised that the party will have full gender equality.

Moshe Kahlon's number 3 Yifat Biton*

No, Orly Levy's

Moshe Kahlon's number 3 is Yifat Shaha-Biton, currently Housing and Construction Minister. Yifat Biton is a law professor and feminist activist who was Orly Levy's number 3.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Nitsan Horovitz defeated Zandberg in the Meretz leadership election with 56% of the vote: 459 convention delegates against her 383.