Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Famous Mortimer]

Labor will pass the threshold and they will bounce back to become the largest left-of-center party in the next election after this one. Calling it now.

[Estrella]

I know its can't really be answered exhaustively in a short post, but *why* has Israel Labour become such a dead loss?

(Disclaimer: not an expert. Likely mistaken about some stuff.)

It's because Labour are a relic of a completely different society.

The largest group among the founders of Israel were secular Ashkenazi socialists, which is why Labour and their predecessors have been Israel's "natural governing party" since independence until their first defeat in 1977. Back then, most of the population were recent immigrants from Europe, where leftist Zionism has been strong since early 20th century. Kibbutzim - designed to be almost a kind of socialist utopias - had a large role in the economy and high prestige because of their role in populating and "conquering" the land. Furthermore, many non-Ashkenazi-leftist voters voted for the religious but otherwise moderate National Religious Party that happily governed with Labour.

Things weren't to stay that way, though. Two things completely upended this social order: changing demographics and a change of attitudes about the conflict.

From the 60s on Sephardim (religious Iberians/North Africans) and ex-Soviets (secular but hawkish) comprised a larger and larger share of newcomers. Especially with the former, Labour were reluctant to integrate them into their structure, resisted their representation in institutions and actively discriminated against them. Over time, this drove them to vote for the right * - not as counterintuitive as it may seem, as the Israeli political spectrum isn't "generic Western left" vs. "generic Western right", but rather doves vs. hawks.

Today, secular Ashkenazis have the lowest birthrate of all groups, and younger voters are overwhelmingly right-wing, so it's not like things are going to get any better.  Labour had a serious image problem with the young for a long time, though - a poll from the 1981 election showed the voters thought of Likud as a younger (and more progressive) party.

Israel's crushing victory in the Six Day War unleashed a sort of "messianic complex" among the previously moderate National Religious-ers that slowly spread over to the rest of the society. The brief goodwill that the peace process had in the 90s vanished with the Second Intifada, the bad handling of which buried Ehud Barak's prime ministership and Labour with it, as voters - especially the working class - flocked to the right in droves. That was the breaking point - the last time Labour headed a government, as it turned out.

All of this made Labour's potential voter pool much smaller, but still a non-insignificant percentage of society. The reason why many of Labour potential voters don't vote for them is comparable to the reasons why Western European socdems suck electorally. "Respectable" urban middle class left for Gantz/Grünen/LREM, "activists" and "radicals" for Meretz/Linke/Mélénchon.
 
_{* Of course, it was more complicated than this; for example, back in the 80s, Shas had connections to the revolutionary Marxist Black Panthers.}

[America Needs R'hllor]

Ok, so this is it: Meretz and Barak are uniting, as well as Stav Shaffir. Shaffir will be placed 2nd, Yair Golan (Democratic Israel) 3rd and Yifat Biton (Democratic Israel) 7th. Barak, and this is interesting, gave up on a realistic place and will be 10th, probably in exchange for a first choice of a Ministry if the party joins the next government. Him being pushed back is likely because of the Epstein issue that made Meretz reluctant. Top 10:

1. Horovits (Meretz)
2. Shaffir (Labour)
3. Yair Golan (Democratic Israel)
4. Tamar Zandberg (Meretz)
5. Ilan Gilon (Meretz)
6. Isawi Farij (Meretz)
7. Yifat Biton (Democratic Israel), possibly someone else from the party
8. Yael Cohen Paran (Green Movement, comes with Shaffir)
9. Democratic Israel representative (I'd wager Yaya Fink)
10. Ehud Barak (Democratic Israel)
11. A Shaffir reserved spot

It'll be named, as Hnv1 called already, "the Democratic Camp". Shocking.

[Hnv1]

Ok, so this is it: Meretz and Barak are uniting, as well as Stav Shaffir. Shaffir will be placed 2nd, Yair Golan (Democratic Israel) 3rd and Yifat Biton (Democratic Israel) 7th. Barak, and this is interesting, gave up on a realistic place and will be 10th, probably in exchange for a first choice of a Ministry if the party joins the next government. Him being pushed back is likely because of the Epstein issue that made Meretz reluctant. Top 10:

1. Horovits (Meretz)
2. Shaffir (Labour)
3. Yair Golan (Democratic Israel)
4. Tamar Zandberg (Meretz)
5. Ilan Gilon (Meretz)
6. Isawi Farij (Meretz)
7. Yifat Biton (Democratic Israel), possibly someone else from the party
8. Yael Cohen Paran (Green Movement, comes with Shaffir)
9. Democratic Israel representative (I'd wager Yaya Fink)
10. Ehud Barak (Democratic Israel)
11. A Shaffir reserved spot

It'll be named, as Hnv1 called already, "the Democratic Camp". Shocking.

no. 9 will be Noa Rotman, the granddaughter.

a/ legally unsure how Shaffir is going to move here. She needs another Labour MK to officially split without a sanction
b/ the list shows the depth of personal hatred, Horowitz made sure Zandberg, Gilon, and Freg are we settled and pushed backwards Raz and especially Rozin.
C/ Buskila and Fink who joined Barak are also pushed way down, the level of hate for them within Meretz and Labour dictated this move

For me this doesn't change anything. I will not vote for a list with Gilon and Bitton in realistic spots

[Hnv1]

Shaffir got 2 spots to give away, giving her some leverage to threaten Peretz with tearing him up more unless he joins. Peretz seems dead set on running with Gesher.
Edit: Shmuli already hinting he will join as well he Peretz remains defiant. that will be big because they could take a third of Labour's funding as well

Anyhow, Look at Labour's list in April
1 Gabbay
2. Russo
3. Shmuli
4. Shaffir
5. Shelly
6. Peretz
7. Michaeli
8. Bar Lev
9 Suede
10 Yalin
11. Hermoni
12. Fink

Suede, Cohen Farran, and Moati are all rumored to consider leaving. If the decision to preserve the list remains it will look like this (considering the departures)
1. Peretz (6)
2. Shmuli (3)
3. Michaeli (7)
4. Bar Lev (
5. Biran (13)
6. Bar-gil (14)
7. Cabel (15)
8. Salah (17)
9. Fadida (19)
10. Zimmerman (20)
11. Hermoni

a patchwork of a party

[America Needs R'hllor]

Lol Labour. This is pretty hilarious.

a/ legally unsure how Shaffir is going to move here. She needs another Labour MK to officially split without a sanction
b/ the list shows the depth of personal hatred, Horowitz made sure Zandberg, Gilon, and Freg are we settled and pushed backwards Raz and especially Rozin.
C/ Buskila and Fink who joined Barak are also pushed way down, the level of hate for them within Meretz and Labour dictated this move

For me this doesn't change anything. I will not vote for a list with Gilon and Bitton in realistic spots

I don't think Horowitz intentionally pushed Rozin backwards. Raz yes, but Rozin was his ally.

Also, can't say I agree with your choice I despise Barak (and that's why I'm not yet sure if I'll vote for them) but pragmatism is necessary to get any goals accomplished.

[Hnv1]

Lol Labour. This is pretty hilarious.

a/ legally unsure how Shaffir is going to move here. She needs another Labour MK to officially split without a sanction
b/ the list shows the depth of personal hatred, Horowitz made sure Zandberg, Gilon, and Freg are we settled and pushed backwards Raz and especially Rozin.
C/ Buskila and Fink who joined Barak are also pushed way down, the level of hate for them within Meretz and Labour dictated this move

For me this doesn't change anything. I will not vote for a list with Gilon and Bitton in realistic spots

I don't think Horowitz intentionally pushed Rozin backwards. Raz yes, but Rozin was his ally.

Also, can't say I agree with your choice I despise Barak (and that's why I'm not yet sure if I'll vote for them) but pragmatism is necessary to get any goals accomplished.

Alleged ally, he has no deep sympathy for her, and a lot would like to see her finally step aside.

It's not a matter of pragmatism, my opposition to Gilon and Bitton's insane Marxism is as deep as my opposition to the Israeli right. I would not vote for this list if it had Ardan and Levin in it and Gilon and Bitton are in a similar status for me.

[Walmart_shopper]

Meretz+Barak+Shaffir is gaining momentum, Horowitz to lead the joint list. This move might finally see Labour fall under the threshold. Peretz in a desperate move is trying to get some Druze and Arab 'voters' contractors' in the Labour top 10.

Shaffir is in many ways the face of the Labor future. If she leaves then it is pretty easy to read that as a prologue to the end of Labor. Frankly, it makes me sad, but after the last five years (at least) of watching lose itself I can't understand the point of a Labor party anymore. Meretz serves the political goals of the left much more clearly, Lapid will continue to wave the centrist banner of democracy and religious liberty in a way that appeals to bougie suburban moderates, and the Arab parties are increasingly a sophisticated political voice that quite effectively speaks quite articulately against the drift towards apartheid. Labor is just kind of there, and if that's all it is then I rather it just not be there at all.

I know its can't really be answered exhaustively in a short post, but *why* has Israel Labour become such a dead loss?

Because the Zionist left has been largely undone by the growing polarization in Israeli politics. The gnawing tension between democracy and Zionism, between the Jewish and democratic components of the state, are now seen as being fundamentally at odds. The religious right has chosen the Jewish part and the left and Arab parties has chosen the democratic part. Demographically there is a roughly 60-40 split in favor of the right, which neither shrinks nor grows.

Labor's whole modus operandi is as the establishment party of Israel, insisting on a European-oriented, Zionistic democracy. That vision largely has failed because Arabs are a growing demographic and don't want Zionism, religious Jews are a growing demographic and don't want democracy, and Mizrahi Jews are culturally Arab and don't want prissy pan-Europeanism. So the 40 percent of Israelis who are to the left are increasingly disenchanted with the entire framework of the Labor movement. The Ashkenazi Zionist left has split between a non-Zionist left and a center-right Likud that is less enthusiastic about socialism and democracy.

In many ways the growing and increasingly middle class Arab population is now the heart of the Israeli left, not latte sipping Ashkenazim in bougie north Tel Aviv. And Arabs ans young Jewish leftists have never had a real conmection to Labor.

Frankly, the same thing, although in a different cultural context, is happening to the center-left in Europe.

[Walmart_shopper]

Imagine being Orly Levy, believing that you had finally found a way into the Knesset and finding out that your way into the Knesset is actually what will ensure that you remain out. Joining Labor was not only Labor's ruin, but her own, too.

[Walmart_shopper]

I know its can't really be answered exhaustively in a short post, but *why* has Israel Labour become such a dead loss?

(Disclaimer: not an expert. Likely mistaken about some stuff.)

It's because Labour are a relic of a completely different society.

The largest group among the founders of Israel were secular Ashkenazi socialists, which is why Labour and their predecessors have been Israel's "natural governing party" since independence until their first defeat in 1977. Back then, most of the population were recent immigrants from Europe, where leftist Zionism has been strong since early 20th century. Kibbutzim - designed to be almost a kind of socialist utopias - had a large role in the economy and high prestige because of their role in populating and "conquering" the land. Furthermore, many non-Ashkenazi-leftist voters voted for the religious but otherwise moderate National Religious Party that happily governed with Labour.

Things weren't to stay that way, though. Two things completely upended this social order: changing demographics and a change of attitudes about the conflict.

From the 60s on Sephardim (religious Iberians/North Africans) and ex-Soviets (secular but hawkish) comprised a larger and larger share of newcomers. Especially with the former, Labour were reluctant to integrate them into their structure, resisted their representation in institutions and actively discriminated against them. Over time, this drove them to vote for the right * - not as counterintuitive as it may seem, as the Israeli political spectrum isn't "generic Western left" vs. "generic Western right", but rather doves vs. hawks.

Today, secular Ashkenazis have the lowest birthrate of all groups, and younger voters are overwhelmingly right-wing, so it's not like things are going to get any better.  Labour had a serious image problem with the young for a long time, though - a poll from the 1981 election showed the voters thought of Likud as a younger (and more progressive) party.

Israel's crushing victory in the Six Day War unleashed a sort of "messianic complex" among the previously moderate National Religious-ers that slowly spread over to the rest of the society. The brief goodwill that the peace process had in the 90s vanished with the Second Intifada, the bad handling of which buried Ehud Barak's prime ministership and Labour with it, as voters - especially the working class - flocked to the right in droves. That was the breaking point - the last time Labour headed a government, as it turned out.

All of this made Labour's potential voter pool much smaller, but still a non-insignificant percentage of society. The reason why many of Labour potential voters don't vote for them is comparable to the reasons why Western European socdems suck electorally. "Respectable" urban middle class left for Gantz/Grünen/LREM, "activists" and "radicals" for Meretz/Linke/Mélénchon.
 
_{* Of course, it was more complicated than this; for example, back in the 80s, Shas had connections to the revolutionary Marxist Black Panthers.}

That's pretty much it, right there.

[CumbrianLefty]

Both your answers were very informative, thanks

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another factor is just the general transformation of Israeli politics away from the fiercely ideological clashes that used to be so characteristic of it and towards personality politics, something that has to be seen as largely generational. Political traditions and tendencies in the electorate still exist, but political parties are now mostly explicit vehicles for individual political actors rather than mobilised ideological cadres, and the electorate tends to respond accordingly.

[jaichind]

Does not the formation of Democratic Camp make it more likely that Labor will fall below the threshold?

[Famous Mortimer]

Ok, so this is it: Meretz and Barak are uniting, as well as Stav Shaffir. Shaffir will be placed 2nd, Yair Golan (Democratic Israel) 3rd and Yifat Biton (Democratic Israel) 7th. Barak, and this is interesting, gave up on a realistic place and will be 10th, probably in exchange for a first choice of a Ministry if the party joins the next government. Him being pushed back is likely because of the Epstein issue that made Meretz reluctant. Top 10:

1. Horovits (Meretz)
2. Shaffir (Labour)
3. Yair Golan (Democratic Israel)
4. Tamar Zandberg (Meretz)
5. Ilan Gilon (Meretz)
6. Isawi Farij (Meretz)
7. Yifat Biton (Democratic Israel), possibly someone else from the party
8. Yael Cohen Paran (Green Movement, comes with Shaffir)
9. Democratic Israel representative (I'd wager Yaya Fink)
10. Ehud Barak (Democratic Israel)
11. A Shaffir reserved spot

It'll be named, as Hnv1 called already, "the Democratic Camp". Shocking.

no. 9 will be Noa Rotman, the granddaughter.

a/ legally unsure how Shaffir is going to move here. She needs another Labour MK to officially split without a sanction

Can she argue that the Democratic Camp is a new party so it's not as if she's switching directly from Labor to Meretz?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Ok, so this is it: Meretz and Barak are uniting, as well as Stav Shaffir. Shaffir will be placed 2nd, Yair Golan (Democratic Israel) 3rd and Yifat Biton (Democratic Israel) 7th. Barak, and this is interesting, gave up on a realistic place and will be 10th, probably in exchange for a first choice of a Ministry if the party joins the next government. Him being pushed back is likely because of the Epstein issue that made Meretz reluctant. Top 10:

1. Horovits (Meretz)
2. Shaffir (Labour)
3. Yair Golan (Democratic Israel)
4. Tamar Zandberg (Meretz)
5. Ilan Gilon (Meretz)
6. Isawi Farij (Meretz)
7. Yifat Biton (Democratic Israel), possibly someone else from the party
8. Yael Cohen Paran (Green Movement, comes with Shaffir)
9. Democratic Israel representative (I'd wager Yaya Fink)
10. Ehud Barak (Democratic Israel)
11. A Shaffir reserved spot

It'll be named, as Hnv1 called already, "the Democratic Camp". Shocking.

no. 9 will be Noa Rotman, the granddaughter.

a/ legally unsure how Shaffir is going to move here. She needs another Labour MK to officially split without a sanction

Can she argue that the Democratic Camp is a new party so it's not as if she's switching directly from Labor to Meretz?

She didn't actually leave Labour in the Knesset to become an independent like Orly Levy did. So I believe she's legally fine.

[Walmart_shopper]

Does not the formation of Democratic Camp make it more likely that Labor will fall below the threshold?

Yes, and Shaffir and Shmulie jumping ship would make it probable that Labor simply ceases to exist. It looks like Labor either has to form a joint list with Blue and White or the left to survive.

[DavidB.]

YB excludes possibility of entering a government with Joint List, Democratic Union, Shas, UTJ and URP. As Likud and BW risk going below 60 seats, Lieberman truly seems the smartest player of the game this time. He would be kingmaker.

[jaichind]

Some recent polls seems to indicate that Democratic Union is eating into the B&W vote

[jaichind]

YB excludes possibility of entering a government with Joint List, Democratic Union, Shas, UTJ and URP. As Likud and BW risk going below 60 seats, Lieberman truly seems the smartest player of the game this time. He would be kingmaker.

But does he rule out Netanyahu as PM as long as the religous parties are out?

[DavidB.]

Some recent polls seems to indicate that Democratic Union is eating into the B&W vote

Which is completely natural now that BW's momentum has completely faded away. A ton of people were to the left of BW but voted for them anyway in the April election. Now that it seems clear BW alone will not be able to oust Netanyahu (and may actually form a coalition with him...), it is logical for these people to move back leftward, especially as the Meretz-Shaffir combination carries a new sense of energy with it and may enthuse more people.

But does he rule out Netanyahu as PM as long as the religous parties are out?

No, his problem isn't with Netanyahu. But if only one out of Gantz/Netanyahu supports a "unity government", Lieberman will vote for that one to form a government.

[Walmart_shopper]

Some recent polls seems to indicate that Democratic Union is eating into the B&W vote

But the bloc math is the same. It is still roughly 50/50 between right and left with Liberman being decisive. I don't think he would necessary oppose a Netanyahu-led unity government, so long as the religious parties were sidelined, but a Gantz-led  unity government seems the more logical outcome if only because a lot of people left and right are ready to dump Bibi and his legal baggage.

[Walmart_shopper]

YB excludes possibility of entering a government with Joint List, Democratic Union, Shas, UTJ and URP. As Likud and BW risk going below 60 seats, Lieberman truly seems the smartest player of the game this time. He would be kingmaker.

Sure, but that's not really news. Liberman probably resents Meretz even more than the Arab parties, who he constantly refers to as a "fifth column." He has made as clear as humanly possible that he wants a Likud/BW unity government, without or preferably with him in it. Given the math I don't think anyone doubts that he'll get something very close to his wish. It is only unclear who exactly will lead it (eitger Gantz or maybe a non-Bibi Likudnik). And depending on whether the right or left does better that unity government would include either Liberman or the Democratic Union.

[jaichind]

Some recent polls seems to indicate that Democratic Union is eating into the B&W vote

But the bloc math is the same. It is still roughly 50/50 between right and left with Liberman being decisive. I don't think he would necessary oppose a Netanyahu-led unity government, so long as the religious parties were sidelined, but a Gantz-led  unity government seems the more logical outcome if only because a lot of people left and right are ready to dump Bibi and his legal baggage.

Yes yet I think the dynamics government formation would be different if B&W were to come ahead of Likud versus the other way around.  If  Democratic Union continues to eat into B&W that should increase the chances of a Likud and even Netanyahu government.

[Famous Mortimer]

New Right, Jewish Home, the Jewish Home's ally the National Union/Tkuma, and Otzma Yehudit have agreed to a join list headed by New Right's new leader Ayelet Shaked.

The list so far will be:

1. Ayelet Shaked (New Right)
2. Rafi Peretz (Jewish Home)
3. Betzalel Smotrich (National Union/Tkuma)
4. Naftali Bennett (New Right)

Full list to be announced later.

This is one of the larger right-wing configurations imaginable. It was previously thought that perhaps only Jewish Home (along with National Union) would ally with Otzma or that only Otzma would ally with New Right.

Instead all three parties will run together.

Only significant party to be left out is Moshe Feiglin's Zehut, which has said it will run alone.

The right-wing alliances has offered Zehut a space on their list though.

[Famous Mortimer]

Just a tally of the alliances so far:

Likud-Kulanu
Israel Resilience Party-Yesh Atid-Telem
Labor-Gesher
Meretz-Democratic Israel-Green Movement
New Right-Jewish Home-National Union/Tkuma-Otzma Yehudit
Hadash-United Arab List-Balad-Ta'al