Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Hnv1]

Former MK Nitzan Horowitz will run for Meretz leadership. He'll be the front for the Gilon\socialist camp and we'll see a merger with Labour within a month. I expect him to win with ease, so that's another party off the table

Interestingly though, his campaign seemed focused soley on religion and state issues. No mention of anything economic or the word socialism. I had to be told by a Meretz friend that he's a Gilon person. Also, what's the difference between him and Zandberg when it comes to a merger with Labour? She seems to support it, at least.

As for Labour- Tal Russo announced that he's leaving political life and won't run for leadership. Good riddance, he contributed nothing. Currently, Stav Shaffir is the only announced candidate, while Peretz is likely to announce officially too. I'm not sure about other contenders like Shmuli. Yair Golan, another former General who's famous for making comments comparing the extremism in Israel to the leadup in Nazi Germany is also considering. But if it's Shaffir vs Peretz, she'll almost definitely win.

Yes, Horowitz 'red' affiliation is a subtle detail that is only known within the party circles. I had to read through the comments to his post to see how and who orchestrated it. 

There's no difference, but I assume negotiations with Meretz under Horowitz would be much easier as he's much more eager to join labour (i.e. Gilon's people are) and they wouldn't mind bonking Rozin and Freg lower down the joint list.

[Walmart_shopper]

Former MK Nitzan Horowitz will run for Meretz leadership. He'll be the front for the Gilon\socialist camp and we'll see a merger with Labour within a month. I expect him to win with ease, so that's another party off the table

Interestingly though, his campaign seemed focused soley on religion and state issues. No mention of anything economic or the word socialism. I had to be told by a Meretz friend that he's a Gilon person. Also, what's the difference between him and Zandberg when it comes to a merger with Labour? She seems to support it, at least.

As for Labour- Tal Russo announced that he's leaving political life and won't run for leadership. Good riddance, he contributed nothing. Currently, Stav Shaffir is the only announced candidate, while Peretz is likely to announce officially too. I'm not sure about other contenders like Shmuli. Yair Golan, another former General who's famous for making comments comparing the extremism in Israel to the leadup in Nazi Germany is also considering. But if it's Shaffir vs Peretz, she'll almost definitely win.

Yes, Horowitz 'red' affiliation is a subtle detail that is only known within the party circles. I had to read through the comments to his post to see how and who orchestrated it. 

There's no difference, but I assume negotiations with Meretz under Horowitz would be much easier as he's much more eager to join labour (i.e. Gilon's people are) and they wouldn't mind bonking Rozin and Freg lower down the joint list.

Why did Zandberg, who won easily a year ago, get so unpopular so fast? Meretz hardly cratered electorally (unlike Labor), and she didn't do anything to really alienate Meretz members. I don't get what Meretz people think Horowitz can do that she did not.

[America Needs R'hllor]

MK Amir Peretz is showing once gain that he's representing the stink of old Labour corruption: after failing to take the voting for leader out of the voters' hands and to delegates alone, he's now trying to advance his proposal in the party convention of switching from electronic voting to paper ballots. That would effectively bar students (like me) and other young people who don't live in the place where they're registered to vote from voting in the place they live, decreasing their turnout and making the old people Peretz is strong with more powerful. It's an outrage and if Peretz wins the leadership I'll strongly consider voting Meretz or Blue&White.

[Hnv1]

Former MK Nitzan Horowitz will run for Meretz leadership. He'll be the front for the Gilon\socialist camp and we'll see a merger with Labour within a month. I expect him to win with ease, so that's another party off the table

Interestingly though, his campaign seemed focused soley on religion and state issues. No mention of anything economic or the word socialism. I had to be told by a Meretz friend that he's a Gilon person. Also, what's the difference between him and Zandberg when it comes to a merger with Labour? She seems to support it, at least.

As for Labour- Tal Russo announced that he's leaving political life and won't run for leadership. Good riddance, he contributed nothing. Currently, Stav Shaffir is the only announced candidate, while Peretz is likely to announce officially too. I'm not sure about other contenders like Shmuli. Yair Golan, another former General who's famous for making comments comparing the extremism in Israel to the leadup in Nazi Germany is also considering. But if it's Shaffir vs Peretz, she'll almost definitely win.

Yes, Horowitz 'red' affiliation is a subtle detail that is only known within the party circles. I had to read through the comments to his post to see how and who orchestrated it. 

There's no difference, but I assume negotiations with Meretz under Horowitz would be much easier as he's much more eager to join labour (i.e. Gilon's people are) and they wouldn't mind bonking Rozin and Freg lower down the joint list.

Why did Zandberg, who won easily a year ago, get so unpopular so fast? Meretz hardly cratered electorally (unlike Labor), and she didn't do anything to really alienate Meretz members. I don't get what Meretz people think Horowitz can do that she did not.

First scandal was hiring right wing campaigners. She personally is hardly of leadership material and just failed to inspire anyone. The party barely pulled over the threshold. The base does not find her inspiring. Internal party schisms only grew during her era.

I don't think anyone think Horowitz can "do" something. There are very few members who think the party needs to contest another election alone. I suppose Horowitz was put up front as an easier head to negotiate a merger and the bad blood between the reds and Zandberg's people.

[Famous Mortimer]

What's the deal with Tal Russo? Why was he always expected to resign? Why did he run for Knesset in the first place?

[danny]

What's the deal with Tal Russo? Why was he always expected to resign? Why did he run for Knesset in the first place?

He was brought in by Gabbai, but with Gabbai leaving I don't expect the new leader to want to keep Russo around, so he may as well leave before getting kicked out.

[Walmart_shopper]

What's the deal with Tal Russo? Why was he always expected to resign? Why did he run for Knesset in the first place?

It was likely part of Gabbay's lame modernization program for Labor, which would give a more mainstream look to the party by making it more muscular on security policy, more Mizrahi, etc. So more like the Israeli center, in other words.

It's a weird concept, though, because Yesh Atid and, until the Bibi era, Likud, both basically have existed for exactly that purpose. It's also odd because the Israeli political system is uniquely susceptible to dramatic changes mainly from the fringes and not the center. The right has been so successful in just four years not because the Likud is the biggest party but because the small Haredi and settler parties have had a knife to the throat of the Likud government. Liberman showed that the most powerful party is not always the largest party.

So selling its soul to the right doesn't only not work electorally, but more importantly it doesn't change Israeli politics, either. It was a way to make Avi Gabbay more influential, but not the left. It's an existential crisis when Labor ceases to serve the purpose of its own values. A politically dynamic and intellectually vibrant Labor with ten mandates will do more for politics and people in this country than a sclerotic and morally vacuous Labor with 25 or 30 seats.  Blue and White and even a post-Bibi Likud will be the boring, mainstream party and Labor can either fail at mimicking those or it can influence and transform those by captivating a small but politically influential minority and using that influence to make policy. Whoever gets that gets my support for leader.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Several Israeli politics updates:

* In Meretz, former MK Mosi Raz and MK Isawi Farij have announced a joint run for leadership. They'd have to ammend the party's rules for this to be allowed. In any case, from what I've seen (Hnv can correct me), they're staunchly in the green camp, so right now it looks like Zandberg vs Horovits vs Raz\Farij. The list will be redone too- I guess if Zandberg loses the leadership, she'd run for the list because she's still too young to retire.
* MK Avi Gabbay officially announced that he'll retire from politics and not run on Labour's party list. That means the current list is 1. Leader 2. Shmuli 3. Shaffir 4. Yachmovich 5. Peretz 6. Michaeli. If Shmuli\Shaffir\Peretz are elected leader (currently they're the only ones running- Yachimovich won't run) they'll be placed first and most everyong else moves up one spot.
* On the right, Zehut leader Feiglin affirmed his party won't run together with the URWP because their patronizing attituge towards secular Jews would scare off his voters. A broken clock and all. He did say a merger with a Shaked\Bennet lead New Right is in the cards, so New Right-Zehut and URWP as the two parties running from Likud's right (other than Yisrael Beiteinu). It's still unknown what Shaked will do, but with Smotrich saying she shouldn't lead a united right list and with the Netanyahus barring her from Likud, looks like New Right-Zehut is her best option. She did confirm she'll run somewhere.

[Hnv1]

Several Israeli politics updates:

* In Meretz, former MK Mosi Raz and MK Isawi Farij have announced a joint run for leadership. They'd have to ammend the party's rules for this to be allowed. In any case, from what I've seen (Hnv can correct me), they're staunchly in the green camp, so right now it looks like Zandberg vs Horovits vs Raz\Farij. The list will be redone too- I guess if Zandberg loses the leadership, she'd run for the list because she's still too young to retire.
* MK Avi Gabbay officially announced that he'll retire from politics and not run on Labour's party list. That means the current list is 1. Leader 2. Shmuli 3. Shaffir 4. Yachmovich 5. Peretz 6. Michaeli. If Shmuli\Shaffir\Peretz are elected leader (currently they're the only ones running- Yachimovich won't run) they'll be placed first and most everyong else moves up one spot.
* On the right, Zehut leader Feiglin affirmed his party won't run together with the URWP because their patronizing attituge towards secular Jews would scare off his voters. A broken clock and all. He did say a merger with a Shaked\Bennet lead New Right is in the cards, so New Right-Zehut and URWP as the two parties running from Likud's right (other than Yisrael Beiteinu). It's still unknown what Shaked will do, but with Smotrich saying she shouldn't lead a united right list and with the Netanyahus barring her from Likud, looks like New Right-Zehut is her best option. She did confirm she'll run somewhere.

- The convention is gathering on Sunday but they need 60% to amend the party constitution which isn't going to happen (though I'm not sure they have to legally but there's no time for court battles). leadership primaries by the 1K strong convention (probably) will happen on June 27th (I'll be in Moscow) and primaries for the list in mid July.
Zandberg is heading for a colossal defeat it seems, I'll wait and see if she'll try running for the list as well.

- Labour is in shambles, they are going to get all the membership to vote on whether to have a primaries by the membership or by the convention. I think Shmoli is going to win (Shaffir and Peretz are too hated by too many groups).

[America Needs R'hllor]

Several Israeli politics updates:

* In Meretz, former MK Mosi Raz and MK Isawi Farij have announced a joint run for leadership. They'd have to ammend the party's rules for this to be allowed. In any case, from what I've seen (Hnv can correct me), they're staunchly in the green camp, so right now it looks like Zandberg vs Horovits vs Raz\Farij. The list will be redone too- I guess if Zandberg loses the leadership, she'd run for the list because she's still too young to retire.
* MK Avi Gabbay officially announced that he'll retire from politics and not run on Labour's party list. That means the current list is 1. Leader 2. Shmuli 3. Shaffir 4. Yachmovich 5. Peretz 6. Michaeli. If Shmuli\Shaffir\Peretz are elected leader (currently they're the only ones running- Yachimovich won't run) they'll be placed first and most everyong else moves up one spot.
* On the right, Zehut leader Feiglin affirmed his party won't run together with the URWP because their patronizing attituge towards secular Jews would scare off his voters. A broken clock and all. He did say a merger with a Shaked\Bennet lead New Right is in the cards, so New Right-Zehut and URWP as the two parties running from Likud's right (other than Yisrael Beiteinu). It's still unknown what Shaked will do, but with Smotrich saying she shouldn't lead a united right list and with the Netanyahus barring her from Likud, looks like New Right-Zehut is her best option. She did confirm she'll run somewhere.

- The convention is gathering on Sunday but they need 60% to amend the party constitution which isn't going to happen (though I'm not sure they have to legally but there's no time for court battles). leadership primaries by the 1K strong convention (probably) will happen on June 27th (I'll be in Moscow) and primaries for the list in mid July.
Zandberg is heading for a colossal defeat it seems, I'll wait and see if she'll try running for the list as well.

- Labour is in shambles, they are going to get all the membership to vote on whether to have a primaries by the membership or by the convention. I think Shmoli is going to win (Shaffir and Peretz are too hated by too many groups).

What do you mean? I believe the convention will choose between a normal primary and a convention election?

Anyway, Shmuli is definitely favoured, but I feel like it depends on who advances to the runoff against Peretz. It seems to me that he has a solid base while Shaffir and Shmuli fight for the same type of voters. In my view she's much more charismatic than Shmuli but who knows, really.

[Zinneke]

Which groups on the left would hate Shaffir?

[Hnv1]

Which groups on the left would hate Shaffir?

The socialists don't like her all that much actually. I've seen several attacks on her and her work on Transparency as neo-liberal.

What do you mean? I believe the convention will choose between a normal primary and a convention election?

I believe the district court yesterday decided this authority lies with the membership not the convention

[DC Al Fine]

Which groups on the left would hate Shaffir?

The socialists don't like her all that much actually. I've seen several attacks on her and her work on Transparency as neo-liberal.

What do you mean? I believe the convention will choose between a normal primary and a convention election?

I believe the district court yesterday decided this authority lies with the membership not the convention

Haha that sounds cartoonishly corrupt. "Transparent goverent is a neoliberal scheme to hurt the poor!!!"

[Hnv1]

Which groups on the left would hate Shaffir?

The socialists don't like her all that much actually. I've seen several attacks on her and her work on Transparency as neo-liberal.

What do you mean? I believe the convention will choose between a normal primary and a convention election?

I believe the district court yesterday decided this authority lies with the membership not the convention

Haha that sounds cartoonishly corrupt. "Transparent goverent is a neoliberal scheme to hurt the poor!!!"

More like the struggle for transparent governance is important but is an elitist struggle that is hiding the more important struggle for social justice.

Socialists were never good with facts you know

[Famous Mortimer]

What is a joint leadership campaign? Why does it require changing rules?

[Hnv1]

What is a joint leadership campaign? Why does it require changing rules?

When two people occupy the role of a chairman, like with the Grünen. As the party constitution allegedly allows for only one person to be chair it has to be changed

[brucejoel99]

United Right apparently wants Shaked to join as number two on the list.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Any particular reason why Meretz has turned against Zandberg?

[Walmart_shopper]

Liberman announced that he is planning to force a secular national unity government between Likud and Blue and White. Given the virtually airtight opposition in Blue and White to sitting in any government led by Netanyahu (and why would they when he'll be in jail in a year?), one has to assume that the real gambit is unseating Bibi while establishing a secular-centrist government in which Liberman would be a prominent feature.

Oddly, this is what I foresaw happening six months ago. I just didn't expect it to take 10 months and two elections to get there. Once again Yvette hits the electorate right in its sweet spot, something Netanyahu used to be brilliant at doing.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Liberman announced that he is planning to force a secular national unity government between Likud and Blue and White. Given the virtually airtight opposition in Blue and White to sitting in any government led by Netanyahu (and why would they when he'll be in jail in a year?), one has to assume that the real gambit is unseating Bibi while establishing a secular-centrist government in which Liberman would be a prominent feature.

Oddly, this is what I foresaw happening six months ago. I just didn't expect it to take 10 months and two elections to get there. Once again Yvette hits the electorate right in its sweet spot, something Netanyahu used to be brilliant at doing.

He's probably seeing Netanyahu gaining his base of Russian hawks whose purpose in life is to hate Arabs, so he's now going for the secular heroes with the short memory who'd support anyone that makes anti-Haredi noises. That is, KL and (to a lesser extent) Labour voters. Electorally, it'll probably help the right-wing bloc, but if he does make do on this promise it'd be a poisoned pill for them.

[Famous Mortimer]

I thought United Right broke up?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Labour updates:
* Former Mossad head Dani Yatom sent a SMS to voters that he's planning on running. I doubt he has a silver of a chance.
* Amir Peretz continues flip flopping on the issue of a primary, and is now pivoting to support an open primary for leader AND list, allegedly as part of an alliance with former MK Eitan Cabel.
* Ehud Barak is looking like this election's wildcard. According to Channel 2, he's trying to form a new party with figures like former IDF Chief Gadi Isenkot, Tzipi Livni, former liberal Likud Minister Dan Meridor and retired general Yair Golan. He's hoping to use this party to unite the entire center-left. He's also negotiating with Amir Peretz and Itzik Shmuli to cooperate with Labour. Could this mean Shaffir is down in the internal polls and these two are the frontrunners? Maybe, I hope not.

In Meretz: MK Ilan Gilon officially endorsed former MK Nitsan Horovits, making it clear that he's part of that camp.

[bigic]

* Ehud Barak is looking like this election's wildcard. According to Channel 2, he's trying to form a new party with figures like former IDF Chief Gadi Isenkot, Tzipi Livni, former liberal Likud Minister Dan Meridor and retired general Yair Golan. He's hoping to use this party to unite the entire center-left.

Reminds me of this XKCD comic



https://xkcd.com/927/

[Oryxslayer]

* Ehud Barak is looking like this election's wildcard. According to Channel 2, he's trying to form a new party with figures like former IDF Chief Gadi Isenkot, Tzipi Livni, former liberal Likud Minister Dan Meridor and retired general Yair Golan. He's hoping to use this party to unite the entire center-left.

Reminds me of this XKCD comic



https://xkcd.com/927/

Yeah like, your party got squeezed to Oblivion by B&W last cycle, can you really afford to have fanciful dreams of both unseating them and returning to govt?

[NyIndy]

What's happened to Gesher and Orly Levy? Is she going to run again?