Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[ProudModerate2]

Quinnipiac, July 25-28, 1306 RV (change from early June)

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

2020 (change from May):

Definitely vote for Trump 32 (+1)
Consider voting for Trump 12 (nc)
Definitely not vote for Trump 54 (nc)

Given how much insanity he's shown in the past few days, this is still a shockingly high number even though a bad sign for anyone with reelection hopes. But I guess some of his supporters are just irredeemable. They would still support him even if he openly said "yes, I am a racist".

True, but these numbers are horrible for trump.
The net disapproval in this poll is +14, which is very large.
And Quinnipiac University is rated A- by 538.
Also, the period of time that this poll was taken (July 25-28) could be that people were still absorbing all the recent racist Tweets from the POTUS, so different polls released in the next two-weeks could show further slip of support.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, July 25-28, 1306 RV (change from early June)

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

2020 (change from May):

Definitely vote for Trump 32 (+1)
Consider voting for Trump 12 (nc)
Definitely not vote for Trump 54 (nc)

Given how much insanity he's shown in the past few days, this is still a shockingly high number even though a bad sign for anyone with reelection hopes. But I guess some of his supporters are just irredeemable. They would still support him even if he openly said "yes, I am a racist".

True, but these numbers are horrible for trump.
The net disapproval in this poll is +14, which is very large.
And Quinnipiac University is rated A- by 538.
Also, the period of time that this poll was taken (July 25-28) could be that people were still absorbing all the recent racist Tweets from the POTUS, so different polls released in the next two-weeks could show further slip of support.

Just a note about 538's pollster ratings.  They update infrequently (once a year?) and can get out of date.  The ratings page also lists Quinnipiac with virtually no bias (D+0.1), but it's evident that Q has picked up more of a Democratic bias in the last year or so.  And 538 is adjusting for this in the average; they adjusted this poll by a net 3 points toward the Republicans (40/54 to 42/53).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

California-PPIC
 https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-the-environment-july-2019.pdf

Trump approval sits at 32%-62% (-30)

Trump is also underwater in every region of the state including the inland (-18%)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, July 18-23, 1196 adults (prior poll May 30-June 4)

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-3)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: UT-Tyler, July 24-27, 1414 RV

Approve 40
Disapprove 54

O'Rourke 49, Trump 38
Warren 41, Trump 38
Sanders 39, Trump 37
Harris 40, Trump 39
Biden 37, Trump 37
Trump 39, Buttigieg 33

[pbrower2a]

California-PPIC
 https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-the-environment-july-2019.pdf

Trump approval sits at 32%-62% (-30)

Trump is also underwater in every region of the state including the inland (-18%)

No surprise here. Note that Donald Trump does even worse on environmental issues than overall, as in Florida and Michigan in which such issues are focuses of recent polls. Whether it is the President's denial of global warming or stewardship of federal property, the environment can be a theme that defeats him in 2020. If Democrats flip only Florida and Michigan against Trump, then they win outright.

Texas: UT-Tyler, July 24-27, 1414 RV

Approve 40
Disapprove 54

O'Rourke 49, Trump 38
Warren 41, Trump 38
Sanders 39, Trump 37
Harris 40, Trump 39
Biden 37, Trump 37
Trump 39, Buttigieg 33

(electric eel -- a shocker!)

It could be that Texas is becoming closer to the USA as a whole in its political orientation. I have seen plenty of polls in which Texas is basically even in approval and disapproval, but unless Trump shtick has recently become unusually offensive to Texas sensibilities, I find this one hard to believe. If you dislike this university poll (as it comes from a college within the well-regarded University of Texas system), then wait for another.  

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative
tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Crumpets]

Texas: UT-Tyler, July 24-27, 1414 RV

Approve 40
Disapprove 54

O'Rourke 49, Trump 38
Warren 41, Trump 38
Sanders 39, Trump 37
Harris 40, Trump 39
Biden 37, Trump 37
Trump 39, Buttigieg 33

"Imagine if you will, a world where Texas votes to the left of the nation as a whole..."

[Person Man]

Texas: UT-Tyler, July 24-27, 1414 RV

Approve 40
Disapprove 54

O'Rourke 49, Trump 38
Warren 41, Trump 38
Sanders 39, Trump 37
Harris 40, Trump 39
Biden 37, Trump 37
Trump 39, Buttigieg 33

"Imagine if you will, a world where Texas votes to the left of the nation as a whole..."

In reality, it should. The fact that it doesn’t and the reasons it doesn’t has been ammo to many Republicans to call disadvantaged people stupid and lazy.

[pbrower2a]

Texas: UT-Tyler, July 24-27, 1414 RV

Approve 40
Disapprove 54

O'Rourke 49, Trump 38
Warren 41, Trump 38
Sanders 39, Trump 37
Harris 40, Trump 39
Biden 37, Trump 37
Trump 39, Buttigieg 33

"Imagine if you will, a world where Texas votes to the left of the nation as a whole..."

Back to the 'Seventies for Texas?



1976, the last year in which Texas  voted for the Democratic nominee for President.  Much of Texas had lots of New Deal Democrats of the LBJ era, especially in the rural areas. But -- Dallas and Harris (greater Houston) Counties were R-leaning.

This is more like what a D win of Texas looks like -- the close election for US Senate in 2018. Gains for a Democrat necessary for winning Texas' 38 electoral votes would be in sheer numbers in urban counties, with flips of such suburban counties as Denton, Collin, and Galveston and (containing the small city Waco (McLennan):




Urban Texas has trended decidedly D except for such cities as Abilene, Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland, Odessa, and Wichita Falls which are not booming metropolises -- and it has been growing -- while rural Texas is losing population like most of the Plains states. The heavily Hispanic areas  remain strongly Democratic, and Trump is not winning them over.

Texas used to be much poorer, much more rural, and much lower in educational achievements than the US as a whole. The poor whites are becoming less dominant in Texas politics, and that bodes ill for Donald Trump and a GOP which relies heavily upon resentments of well-educated people.  

Urban Texas is where the votes are.   

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

A Democratic win in Texas of that magnitude would be Beto+ the northern Dallas suburban counties + maybe Brazos. Before Mr. Politician @‘s me, I’m not predicting Brazos will flip so calm your panties

[windjammer]

I wonder how the dem candidate will fare in Utah. If I have to guess that would be Trump 60% Dem 40% , a massive improvement!

[Epaminondas]

I wonder how the dem candidate will fare in Utah. If I have to guess that would be Trump 60% Dem 40% , a massive improvement!

The only outcome that matters in that state is whether Ben McAdams holds his seat.

[pbrower2a]

I wonder how the dem candidate will fare in Utah. If I have to guess that would be Trump 60% Dem 40% , a massive improvement!

The hazard to Trump in Utah is not so much a strong Democratic opponent (Obama would probably beat Trump on morals and temperament, but he is no longer available) as it is a strong conservative alternative who could get 40% of the popular vote.

Trump is an insult to Mormon values for his personal life.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Texas: UT-Tyler, July 24-27, 1414 RV

Approve 40
Disapprove 54

O'Rourke 49, Trump 38
Warren 41, Trump 38
Sanders 39, Trump 37
Harris 40, Trump 39
Biden 37, Trump 37
Trump 39, Buttigieg 33

"Imagine if you will, a world where Texas votes to the left of the nation as a whole..."

It's a world that's too good to be true.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: UT-Tyler, July 24-27, 1414 RV

Approve 40
Disapprove 54

O'Rourke 49, Trump 38
Warren 41, Trump 38
Sanders 39, Trump 37
Harris 40, Trump 39
Biden 37, Trump 37
Trump 39, Buttigieg 33

"Imagine if you will, a world where Texas votes to the left of the nation as a whole..."

It's a world that's too good to be true.

Not necessarily true.  Look at it the other way around: "Imagine if you will, a world where the U.S. as a whole votes to the right of Texas."  And then Texas still goes Republican.

[windjammer]

I wonder how the dem candidate will fare in Utah. If I have to guess that would be Trump 60% Dem 40% , a massive improvement!

The only outcome that matters in that state is whether Ben McAdams holds his seat.

And a dem getting 40%, a potential outcome, would definitely help!

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 27-30, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

Generic D 42 (nc), Trump 33 (-2)

RV:

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Generic D 50 (+1), Trump 38 (-3)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+1), R 37 (-3)

[Badger]

I wonder how the dem candidate will fare in Utah. If I have to guess that would be Trump 60% Dem 40% , a massive improvement!

The only outcome that matters in that state is whether Ben McAdams holds his seat.

And a dem getting 40%, a potential outcome, would definitely help!

I doubt a Democrat approach 40% Statewide. Maybe about a third of the vote.

If the Democrat hit 40% Statewide, they'd probably win McAdams District

[pbrower2a]

North Dakota, DFM Research. Biden leads everyone in the primary but would lose this state 'bigly' to Trump.

Donald Trump (R-inc) 54
Joe Biden (D) 39

Trump favourables: 56 favourable, 34 unfavourable

https://www.sayanythingblog.com/entry/poll-trump-leads-biden-among-north-dakotans-in-head-to-head-matchup-has-56-percent-favorable-rating/

It's favorability, but favorability and approval ratings are generally very close when both shown.

Trump clearly does worse in North Dakota than he did in 2016, suggesting that he is losing something just about everywhere from 2016 to 2020. This will be one of his best states.  He did get nearly 63% of the popular vote in ND in 2020, but I doubt that he will get that again.



A comparatively weak performance in a sure-win state for him is a sign of impending defeat. Yes, I am using this favorability poll on my map as an approval poll.  

Utah:

The Salt Lake Chamber’s Utah Outlook 2019 is a new and authoritative statewide poll measuring Utahns' sentiments on issues relevant to us and our communities. The new polling information in Utah Outlook will be released every quarter and made available to all Chamber members.

48% Favorable
50% Unfavorable

45% Re-Elect
52% Time for someone else

Rs: 70-28 Re-Elect
Ds: 96-4 Someone else
Is: 68-25 Someone else

https://slchamber.com/utahoutlook/

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Tracker, July 29-30, 1112 adults including 972 RV (1-week change)

Adults:

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 20 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+2)

RV:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

[Politician]

Ipsos Core Political Tracker, July 29-30, 1112 adults including 972 RV (1-week change)

Adults:

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 20 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+2)

RV:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

Where's that Trump approval bump now?

[windjammer]

I wonder how the dem candidate will fare in Utah. If I have to guess that would be Trump 60% Dem 40% , a massive improvement!

The only outcome that matters in that state is whether Ben McAdams holds his seat.

And a dem getting 40%, a potential outcome, would definitely help!

I doubt a Democrat approach 40% Statewide. Maybe about a third of the vote.

If the Democrat hit 40% Statewide, they'd probably win McAdams District

Badger, a third of the vote, that is Obama got in 2008. Utah turned sharply against the Republican Party and is definitely not the most republican state anymore. I really believe in a head to head match up the dem getting around 40% is doable.

[Badger]

I wonder how the dem candidate will fare in Utah. If I have to guess that would be Trump 60% Dem 40% , a massive improvement!

The only outcome that matters in that state is whether Ben McAdams holds his seat.

And a dem getting 40%, a potential outcome, would definitely help!

I doubt a Democrat approach 40% Statewide. Maybe about a third of the vote.

If the Democrat hit 40% Statewide, they'd probably win McAdams District

Badger, a third of the vote, that is Obama got in 2008. Utah turned sharply against the Republican Party and is definitely not the most republican state anymore. I really believe in a head to head match up the dem getting around 40% is doable.

Exactly. I based my 1/3 number, and actually at the last second changed it from about 35%, based on how hard Hillary dropped compared to Obama's 08 numbers.

I'll concede that breaking 35% seems doable, but 40% just seems a stretch. Maybe, possibly assuming there isn't an Evan McMullin type third-party to siphon Trump protest votes away

[pbrower2a]

I wonder how the dem candidate will fare in Utah. If I have to guess that would be Trump 60% Dem 40% , a massive improvement!

The only outcome that matters in that state is whether Ben McAdams holds his seat.

And a dem getting 40%, a potential outcome, would definitely help!

I doubt a Democrat approach 40% Statewide. Maybe about a third of the vote.

If the Democrat hit 40% Statewide, they'd probably win McAdams District

Badger, a third of the vote, that is Obama got in 2008. Utah turned sharply against the Republican Party and is definitely not the most republican state anymore. I really believe in a head to head match up the dem getting around 40% is doable.

Exactly. I based my 1/3 number, and actually at the last second changed it from about 35%, based on how hard Hillary dropped compared to Obama's 08 numbers.

I'll concede that breaking 35% seems doable, but 40% just seems a stretch. Maybe, possibly assuming there isn't an Evan McMullin type third-party to siphon Trump protest votes away

Or maybe Democrats deciding to go along with a third-party protest against Trump if that third-party figure seems stronger in Utah than the Democrat. Before 1952 (when Eisenhower won the LDS hierarchy to the GOP) Utah was reasonably reliable as a D state.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP (monthly), July 25-Aug. 1, 902 adults

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+7)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February.