Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Crumpets]

AP/NORC, Aug. 15-19, 1058 adults (change from June)

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

R: 79/20
D: 5/95
I: 31/65

Strongly approve 21 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since the shutdown.

Not included in the RCP average, of course.

[Landslide Lyndon]

There is a slight downturn of Trump's numbers the last week or so.
Is it noise, the nonsense about Greenland and Jews, or are people starting to feel the first signs of a slowing economy?

[Kyng]

AP/NORC, Aug. 15-19, 1058 adults (change from June)

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

R: 79/20
D: 5/95
I: 31/65

Strongly approve 21 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since the shutdown.

Possible outlier? Change first appears as outliers. The strong disapproval has changed less than the margin of error, and it is now 10% above total approval. But note well that much of the not-so-strong disapproval now seems significantly higher. People go from neither disapproval nor disapproval or from slight approval to slight disapproval unless one sudden event destroys all credibility in a large constituency.

100-DIS gives an estimated 38% vote share for the President, which is just worse than for Hoover in 1932.

Just looking at the topline figures, one thing that jumps out is that the poll's sample is only 63% non-Hispanic white (compared to 71% in the CNN 2016 exit poll, and 72% in the 2018 exit poll). Furthermore, 44% are Democrats or lean-D independents, while 35% are Republicans or lean-R independents. It's not unusual for Democrats to have a slight edge here, but it's not normal for it to be as high as 9%.

So, the sample looks to be too D-friendly, but I'd be interested to see the crosstabs for this.

[Person Man]

AP/NORC, Aug. 15-19, 1058 adults (change from June)

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

R: 79/20
D: 5/95
I: 31/65

Strongly approve 21 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since the shutdown.

Possible outlier? Change first appears as outliers. The strong disapproval has changed less than the margin of error, and it is now 10% above total approval. But note well that much of the not-so-strong disapproval now seems significantly higher. People go from neither disapproval nor disapproval or from slight approval to slight disapproval unless one sudden event destroys all credibility in a large constituency.

100-DIS gives an estimated 38% vote share for the President, which is just worse than for Hoover in 1932.

Just looking at the topline figures, one thing that jumps out is that the poll's sample is only 63% non-Hispanic white (compared to 71% in the CNN 2016 exit poll, and 72% in the 2018 exit poll). Furthermore, 44% are Democrats or lean-D independents, while 35% are Republicans or lean-R independents. It's not unusual for Democrats to have a slight edge here, but it's not normal for it to be as high as 9%.

So, the sample looks to be too D-friendly, but I'd be interested to see the crosstabs for this.

Yeah. There’s no way Trump gets less than 44% even though he’s literally acting like the Beast right now. The Beast was actually a real person and Ironically, most of the settled world converted to Catholicism after he died.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

AP/NORC, Aug. 15-19, 1058 adults (change from June)

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

R: 79/20
D: 5/95
I: 31/65

Strongly approve 21 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since the shutdown.

With the Orange Clown's numbers collapsing even further, this would be a fantastic time to have a #NEVERTRUMPER run, just to screw with Trump. Maybe McMullin/Kasich or Kasich/McMullin?

[pbrower2a]

AP/NORC, Aug. 15-19, 1058 adults (change from June)

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

R: 79/20
D: 5/95
I: 31/65

Strongly approve 21 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since the shutdown.

Possible outlier? Change first appears as outliers. The strong disapproval has changed less than the margin of error, and it is now 10% above total approval. But note well that much of the not-so-strong disapproval now seems significantly higher. People go from neither disapproval nor disapproval or from slight approval to slight disapproval unless one sudden event destroys all credibility in a large constituency.

100-DIS gives an estimated 38% vote share for the President, which is just worse than for Hoover in 1932.

Just looking at the topline figures, one thing that jumps out is that the poll's sample is only 63% non-Hispanic white (compared to 71% in the CNN 2016 exit poll, and 72% in the 2018 exit poll). Furthermore, 44% are Democrats or lean-D independents, while 35% are Republicans or lean-R independents. It's not unusual for Democrats to have a slight edge here, but it's not normal for it to be as high as 9%.

So, the sample looks to be too D-friendly, but I'd be interested to see the crosstabs for this.

Yeah. There’s no way Trump gets less than 44% even though he’s literally acting like the Beast right now. The Beast was actually a real person and Ironically, most of the settled world converted to Catholicism after he died.

Not India, China, Indonesia, or Japan! Ethiopia, which has the most under-rated civilization in antiquity, never became Catholic. The New World would become largely Catholic (if one ignores Protestant majorities in much of Canada and the United States, but only much later.

Just a nit-pick.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cautionary note with these Trumpian approvals, Dubya won with 47% of the vote and was under 50%. If  2000, 2004 and 2016 taught us, voters like Dems initiatives, but too much spending on social programs is not very good either. At the time record number of voters are filing for disability benefits, Dems want to increase spending on Medicare

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I remember seeing a survey not too long ago that said most people support increasing disability benefits.

All this crap about people malingering so they could collect disability is just that: crap. I don't know anyone who does this. And that's in a state with a high rate of people collecting disability.

[pbrower2a]

I would collect disability benefits, if necessary and possible, so that I could get my life back together.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

These days, it's extremely difficult to qualify for disability.

[Hammy]

Cautionary note with these Trumpian approvals, Dubya won with 47% of the vote and was under 50%. If  2000, 2004 and 2016 taught us, voters like Dems initiatives, but too much spending on social programs is not very good either. At the time record number of voters are filing for disability benefits, Dems want to increase spending on Medicare

Several things wrong with this thinking: The actual voters did vote for Democratic policies in 2000 and 2016--they just happened to not live in the right places to be counted as much as others. Also 2020 cannot be compared with either 2016 or 2000 with polling because there was literally no job approval polls--you had two non-incumbents running, so it was purely favorability. And Bush was hovering close to 50% when he won in 2004 (and was certainly not under water when the disapproval was factored in, even if he was below 50%) and that can't be said for Trump.

[pbrower2a]

Trump is not showing gains in any states that he lost. It is possible to win re-election while not gaining support in states one lost -- if one won by a large margin the previous time Thus FDR in 1940 and 1944 and Obama in 2012. If one lucked through as did Dubya in 2000, then one had better pick up something; he did, squeaking by in Iowa and New Mexico while losing New Hampshire. It's not as if Trump wins by trading Wisconsin or Arizona for Minnesota, trading Iowa for Nevada, or something like that.

It would not take much for him to lose all three of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Florida remains iffy, but for him, Florida is reasonably reliable for a Republican in a close Presidential election should it be the difference between a Democratic President and a Republican President -- so long, of course, as a Republican is governor and Republicans hold most offices relevant to monitoring the election. Arizona is less trustworthy for Republicans due to demographic change.

Note that Obama never got above 51% disapproval before November 2012 in any state that he won in 2012. Recognizing that Obama is a more astute and competent politician than Trump, any state in which Trump has gone above 51% disapproval in a reputable poll by now is one that he has little likelihood of winning. It is hard to undo 51% or more disapproval. Disapproval means giving up on a politician. If one is down 44-47 in approval, one still has a chance by gaining heavily among undecided voters. Turning disapproval into votes is extremely difficult.

OK, I was convinced after the 2010 midterm elections that Obama would likely be a one-term President. Approval numbers after the midterms were consistently close to 50-50, so Obama could be re-elected.  It was close, but Obama won. 

[RI]

Florida: St. Pete's Polls, 8/21-22 (1,941 RVs)

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

R: 80/18
D: 18/79
I: 45/52

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida: St. Pete's Polls, 8/21-22 (1,941 RVs)

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

R: 80/18
D: 18/79
I: 45/52

Lean R.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Florida: St. Pete's Polls, 8/21-22 (1,941 RVs)

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

R: 80/18
D: 18/79
I: 45/52

Lean R.

Deplorables gonna deplorable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: St. Pete's Polls, 8/21-22 (1,941 RVs)

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

R: 80/18
D: 18/79
I: 45/52

Lean R.

Deplorables gonna deplorable.

The State of Deplorida.

[pbrower2a]

Roanoake College, Virginia. "Potential voters", whatever that means.

Trump approval 27%, disapproval 53%.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/trump-approval-hits-new-low-among-virginians-in-roanoke-college-poll/2019/08/26/ce9f339a-c815-11e9-a1fe-ca46e8d573c0_story.html?noredirect=on&wpisrc=nl_buzz&wpmm=1

(Huh? That looks like a misprint due to 20% undecided, which I rarely see with someone so polarizing as Trump. Could it be that the approval is down -- way down -- due to his outright heresy and blasphemy? Heck, if I were a Buddhist I would find his self-comparison to Jesus an offense!)

The usual approval in a state with 53% disapproval is somewhere in the low-to-mid 40's, and not in the high 20's. This said, "approval" going to "disapproval" goes through "undecided". This approval number is low even for states like California, Maryland, Massachusetts, and New York, let alone a state that has recently been considered a swing state and might be again. As a populist Trump has been a poor match for Virginia, a state never suited to populists of any kind.

If this is the result of his blasphemous self-comparison to Jesus, then I can see Trump approvals just about everywhere taking the sort of bite that a great white shark takes out of a dead whale. I may disagree with superstitions of many religious people, but there are sensibilities that one must never breach if one is to have credibility among the devout.

Devout people will be going to church, and they will ask about what Trump has said about himself.

One of the sayings of Buddhism is that if you see the Buddha, kill him -- because there can only be one, and anyone posing as the Buddha can only be evil. Buddhism is infamously intolerant -- of killing. Christianity sees an Antichrist in much the same light, only without the call to kill him.  

...Trump was not going to win Virginia with a 53% disapproval, and he will not. The 27% can recover into the low 40's for approval in the Old Dominion, but that is as far as I can see it going. Trump will need to humble himself considerably to get re-elected after those putrid claims, but humbling himself seems to have never been part of his repertory of behavior.  

Oh, would I love to be composing the cute questions for Public Policy Polling!  

Florida: St. Pete's Polls, 8/21-22 (1,941 RVs)

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

R: 80/18
D: 18/79
I: 45/52

Winnable for Trump, but Florida will not decide the 2020 Presidential election. It is in the zone between about 300 and 375 electoral votes for a Democrat. Florida may still be collecting elderly reactionaries from Up North while Arizona is getting recent Californians (still liberals) getting away from high rents and taxes. Arizona's Hispanics are largely Mexican-Americans and Florida's Hispanics are largely Cubans who have the fantasy of returning to Cuba to be lords and masters as their grandparents were before Fidel Castro.

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, Aug. 24-26, 1458 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (+6)

Biden 54, Trump 46
Sanders 52, Trump 48
Warren 50, Trump 50
Harris 50, Trump 50
Trump 51, Buttigieg 49

[Person Man]

Emerson, Aug. 24-26, 1458 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (+6)

Biden 54, Trump 46
Sanders 52, Trump 48
Warren 50, Trump 50
Harris 50, Trump 50
Trump 51, Buttigieg 49

Probably just passed over an outlier. Trump is neither terribly unpopular or popular at all.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, Aug. 24-26, 1458 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (+6)

Biden 54, Trump 46
Sanders 52, Trump 48
Warren 50, Trump 50
Harris 50, Trump 50
Trump 51, Buttigieg 49

Probably just passed over an outlier. Trump is neither terribly unpopular or popular at all.

Yeah, the prior 45/46 was probably a mild outlier; the two before that (early July and late June) were 44/48 and 43/48.  The 52 disapproval in the current poll is their highest since January.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/08/28/2020-biden-leads-democrats-voters-dread-election/2120726001/

Suffolk, Aug. 20-25, 1000 RV (change from June)

Approve 44 (-5)
Disapprove 54 (+6)

[Person Man]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/08/28/2020-biden-leads-democrats-voters-dread-election/2120726001/

Suffolk, Aug. 20-25, 1000 RV (change from June)

Approve 44 (-5)
Disapprove 54 (+6)

Again, another poll showing him to be either controversial or even modestly popular now shows him as being moderately unpopular.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3638

Quinnipiac, Aug. 21-26, 1422 RV (1-month change)

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 50 (+3)

[Person Man]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3638

Quinnipiac, Aug. 21-26, 1422 RV (1-month change)

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 50 (+3)

50% strongly disapprove?
Unless Trump can restore his reputation as a "rainmaker", he will lose. By a lot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3638

Quinnipiac, Aug. 21-26, 1422 RV (1-month change)

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 50 (+3)

50% strongly disapprove?
Unless Trump can restore his reputation as a "rainmaker", he will lose. By a lot.

True, but keep in mind that Q has been very D-friendly lately.  I'd knock a few points off of that (but even adjusted, it's still bad).