Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Person Man]

The simple fact is that more Americans identify as Democrats than Republicans.  This has been true for some time now.

When was the last time it wasn't true? I'm almost 46, and I don't remember it ever being any other way.

Start of the Great Depression. What has often happened is that southern Democrats such as Jeff Sessions and Richard Sessions went Republican and took their constituencies with them  at the voting booth without those people having to admit that they were for all practical purposes Republicans. Of course there are now many Southern whites who have never identified as Democrats while voting age. 

That's pretty much it. A lot of it has been offset by moderate to liberal Republicans in New England, the Great Lakes, the West Coast, and now increasingly the more developed areas of the interior west. 100 years ago, the constituencies that gave the plurality or perhaps a small majority of the GOP vote were the only voters to be Democrats.

The entire thing is pretty stupid if you ask me. You have all of these brainwashed 20something (something tells me that these kids should have been taken by DFS or something) arch-conservative kids in rural and recently developed areas who keep saying that they are actually MORE progressive than democrats because that Robert Byrd was in the KKK. Of course, I say that Planned Parenthood, NAACP, and the ACLU were all founded by Republicans and then they miss the point entirely by saying that those organizations were all just invented to get rid of blackie and brownie.

An illustration: between Lincoln and FDR the Republican party had every President except Grover Cleveland and Woodrow Wilson. Republicans established the 'corporate welfare state' that supposedly brought peace, prosperity, and progress' until the model failed so dramatically. I could make the case that FDR kept America from splintering into a divide between fascism o0f the KKK type and a proletarian revolution.

FDR acceded to the idea that working people had to be participants in the bounty of capitalism and not merely producers. The Tennessee Valley Authority allowed the modernization of the Mountain South, and white Southerners (the Mountain South was very white and still is)  gave credit to Democrats so long as there were many people who remembered that. Thus there could be relative liberals such as Al Gore and Bill Clinton, either of whom would be wiped out electorally if they tried to run again in their states.

Note well: the often-racist populists of the Mountain South were politically incompatible with the "Rockefeller" or "Eisenhower" Republicans up north. They still are. American politics is coalition politics, and as Richard Nixon's Southern Strategy brought the often-racist populists of the South into the Republican fold, the more patrician "Eisenhower/Rockefeller" Republicans started leaving the GOP.

It is always possible to see ulterior motives in any reformer. Planned Parenthood? Gigantic (then largely Catholic) families in the urban proletariat were destined to extreme poverty, an observation that held well for Polish-Americans and Italian-Americans until World War II which was effective in the extreme of exposing hidden talent that proved vital to winning a war against the demonic enemies known as the Axis powers. When the NAACP was founded, blacks were heavily Republicans who gave credit to the Party of Lincoln as the Great Emancipator. (FDR co-opted Lincoln in the New Deal and especially World War II as a model of what America stood for against the slave system of the old South and the slave systems of the Devil's Reich and Thug Japan as the antithesis of everything fascist. The ACLU's formal predecessor got its start in opposing the degradation of civil liberties during World War I under the Democrat Woodrow Wilson. Add another -- the Sierra Club, founded by Republicans to resist the drive to turn practically every valley in the Sierra watershed into a source of water for California urbanization and agriculture.   

I look at a composite map of elections of Obama and Eisenhower and see that, except for the Great Plains, Obama did well where Eisenhower did well. The three toughest Northern states for Democrats to win between 1928 and 1988 based on whom they voted for -- Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Rhode Island -- went twice for Eisenhower. Massachusetts and Rhode Island were the only states outside of the South to vote for Al Smith in 1928, and Massachusetts and Minnesota were the only two states to vote against the Nixon landslide of 1972 or the Reagan landslide of 1984 -- as somehow the 49th-best and 50th-best (sole loss) for the winners of 49-state landslides, while Rhode Island was 47th in both years. Eisenhower was the first Republican to win Virginia since Herbert Hoover, and Obama was the first Democrat to win Virginia since the LBJ blowout.     

Then they just talk about how helping these various constituencies is basically a plot to keep them in a permanent needy state that will continually be farmed for votes. Its like believing that smoking isn't dangerous because then the tobacco company would run out of customers. Also, Justice Thomas says that's why he is a reactionary; That is, private and partial interests are bad for their constituents because it distracts from "the common good". This is the core philosophy of less socially advanced white people in less economically advanced areas- They vote Republican because what is good for the rich and powerful is ultimately good for them and what is good for them is bad for the rich and powerful and therefore ultimately bad for them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, July 6-8, 1100 RV (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 48 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP, July 3-8, 604 RV (change from May 1)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-4)

[pbrower2a]

Then they just talk about how helping these various constituencies is basically a plot to keep them in a permanent needy state that will continually be farmed for votes. Its like believing that smoking isn't dangerous because then the tobacco company would run out of customers. Also, Justice Thomas says that's why he is a reactionary; That is, private and partial interests are bad for their constituents because it distracts from "the common good". This is the core philosophy of less socially advanced white people in less economically advanced areas- They vote Republican because what is good for the rich and powerful is ultimately good for them and what is good for them is bad for the rich and powerful and therefore ultimately bad for them.

Yes. It is about establishing constituencies that one keeps in line with threats from outsiders or of abandonment by the Leadership. Where could such people go for allies?

Having read Albion's Seed, I find that an old pattern of the knack for demanding  little economically so long as people tolerate their culture (anti-intellectual, pro-business, and often with inexplicable and violent feuds) that goes back to folkways of the old border area between northern England and southern Scotland whence such people emigrated to the American backwoods. This insular culture is the basis of such depictions as Lil' Abner and The  Dukes of Hazzard which might seem derogatory outside of Appalachia and the Ozarks. Guess what? People of the Mountain South culture love those depictions!  

The cultural zone of the Backwoods, which includes Appalachia from about the New York-Pennsylvania state line to the middle of Alabama, the hilly country of the Ohio and Tennessee River basins (basically from just south of Indianapolis to about Huntsville, Alabama), and the Ozarks of Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma with some overflow into Texas and Mississippi. If it could not get along well with the Puritans of New England (too intellectual), the Quakers of Pennsylvania (too moralizing), or the cavaliers of the Tidewater and the Deep South (too hierarchical)  they could get along little with others. They distrusted the First Peoples to the extreme, becoming the most fearsome Indian-fighters. They did side with the Union during the Civil War, but not out of sympathy with the black slaves; they wanted the hierarchical planters out of their hair -- and they could take their slaves with them. They saw Union generals as the ones who would liberate them from the power of planters who saw Backwoods youth largely as cannon fodder. After the Civil War they were particularly hostile to immigration of any kind. Heck, they even disliked the Mennonites of Swiss and German origin, let alone Irish Catholics, people with strange Polish surnames, or swarthy Eye-talians and Mexicans. Contrast Texas, settled mostly from the Deep South; Florida, which used to be undeniably the deepest part of the South; Virginia, the ancestral source of the Deep South; and North Carolina. These places found that they could tolerate Latino and German immigrants as reality dictated. Then there is Louisiana, settled by the Francophone Acadians and that will not let anyone forget that. Grater New Orleans is multi-ethnic and not simply in the divide between whites and blacks as oppressors and oppressed as is so in much of the rural South.    

The fault with such an insular world is that it becomes increasingly backward with time in economics, technology, and politics. Political figures like Mitch McConnell, Marsha Blackburn, Mike Pence, and Tom Cotton fit it well. Donald Trump has told such people exactly what they want to hear, and he is wildly successful among them in his political appeals even if he offends multitudes of others.

It's not simply tradition: Haredi Jews have no problems with using computer expertise and modern techniques of business to foster their tradition. If anything, thought-out traditions give people the means for dealing with economic and political change. The Catholic Church, the oldest Christian Church in what is undeniably Western (at that the Eastern Orthodox and Monophysite churches are rivals) has shown over centuries a knack for bending without breaking. The Mormon hierarchy may find homosexuality distressing, but it found a way to cope with same-sex marriage: make sure that there is a non-Mormon to do the  'dirty work' of authorizing a same-sex marriage. Do you remember the Mormon ads that showed people living interesting lives, not looking like the early-American or Scandinavian stock common in Mormon country, surprising people by saying "and I am a Mormon"? I can imagine a modification that shows someone stereotypically gay or lesbian who so self-identifies, and surprises people by saying "and I am a Mormon".    

I see the Mountain South as the last part of America to catch onto the idea that Trump is an untrustworthy rogue. Just look at the Morning Consult polls of the states. He has hideous approval ratings in heavily-Mormon Utah and the Great Plains states (other than Oklahoma) for a Republican President. Texas has been Safe R for Republicans since the 1980s, and Trump struggles there.

I say this before any polls tell us what impact any connection between Donald Trump and his SEX FIEND buddy Jeffrey Epstein has upon polling.        

[Person Man]

PPP, July 3-8, 604 RV (change from May 1)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-4)

With multiple polls showing slight improvement, has Trump actually done a better job being president? That's one thing that would be a good question. How has Trump's performance has actually changed-
Gotten Better
Gotten Worse
Stayed the Same

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP, July 3-8, 604 RV (change from May 1)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-4)

With multiple polls showing slight improvement, has Trump actually done a better job being president?

I think it's fair to say that the trend in Trump's approval rating has shown a small increase recently.  This doesn't necessarily mean he's done a better job.

[Gass3268]

PPP, July 3-8, 604 RV (change from May 1)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-4)

With multiple polls showing slight improvement, has Trump actually done a better job being president?

I think it's fair to say that the trend in Trump's approval rating has shown a small increase recently.  This doesn't necessarily mean he's done a better job.

Trump's poll numbers always seem to increase whenever the spotlight isn't on him.

[pbrower2a]

Check back in a week after some current news sinks in.

[Progressive Pessimist]

PPP, July 3-8, 604 RV (change from May 1)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-4)

With multiple polls showing slight improvement, has Trump actually done a better job being president?

I think it's fair to say that the trend in Trump's approval rating has shown a small increase recently.  This doesn't necessarily mean he's done a better job.

Trump's poll numbers always seem to increase whenever the spotlight isn't on him.

It's partly why he won in 2016. Timing is everything with Trump, for better and worse.

[Person Man]

PPP, July 3-8, 604 RV (change from May 1)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-4)

With multiple polls showing slight improvement, has Trump actually done a better job being president?

I think it's fair to say that the trend in Trump's approval rating has shown a small increase recently.  This doesn't necessarily mean he's done a better job.

Trump's poll numbers always seem to increase whenever the spotlight isn't on him.

It's partly why he won in 2016. Timing is everything with Trump, for better and worse.

Between Russia and FBI, the story was all about how Donna Brazille paved the way for Hillary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 7-9, 1500 adults including 1140 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (+2)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

Generic D 41 (-2), Trump 34 (nc)

RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 30 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

Generic D 49 (nc), Trump 38 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (-1), R 38 (-1)

[Person Man]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 7-9, 1500 adults including 1140 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (+2)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

Generic D 41 (-2), Trump 34 (nc)

RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 30 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

Generic D 49 (nc), Trump 38 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (-1), R 38 (-1)

This could just be noise and probably doesn't tell us that much yet about what Americans think about soldiers putting kids away into cages so that they can be farmed out to wizards who rent them to priests and other diddlers.

[Person Man]

That ABC WAPO poll that showed that support for Trump's "exciting, populist alt-Right agenda" is becoming mainstream?

Well, here is another interesting tidbit that was brought up on pollingreport.com

 ABC News/Washington Post Poll. June 28-July 1, 2019. N=1,008 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.5. Trend includes Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation Poll.
                              

"Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?"
 
          Legal in
all cases    Legal in
most cases    Illegal in
most cases    Illegal in
all cases    Unsure
          %    %    %    %    %
     

6/28 - 7/1/19
   27    33    22    14    4
     

7/18-21/13
   20    35    26    15    3
     

7/25 - 8/5/12
   19    36    25    17    3
     

3/7-10/12
   21    33    25    17    3
     

7/14-17/11
   19    35    30    15    2
     

3/23-26/10
   17    35    27    18    2
     

11/19-23/09
   19    35    28    16    2
     

6/18-21/09
   20    35    26    17    2
                              

"Should your state make it easier for women to have access to abortion, make it harder for women to have access to abortion, or leave the law on women's access to abortion as it is now?"
 
          Easier    Harder    Leave
as is    Unsure    
          %    %    %    %    
     

6/28 - 7/1/19
   32    24    41    4    

[Pericles]

Minor fluctuations in Trump's approval rating don't matter much. Trump has been consistently underwater since his inauguration, and has not won over the majority of people who disliked him (he has never had the support of a majority of the electorate, and third-party voters and those who disliked both him and Hillary meant he could win narrowly with 46% of the vote). Additionally, he has consistently been below his 46% vote share in his approval ratings. His re-election chances won't be fundamentally changed unless Trump makes inroads beyond his base, so he gets above 46% consistently and regularly, or if he loses part of his base (so if he gets under definitely 40% and probably goes below is previous all-time lows of just above 35%).

[pbrower2a]

Minor fluctuations in Trump's approval rating don't matter much. Trump has been consistently underwater since his inauguration, and has not won over the majority of people who disliked him (he has never had the support of a majority of the electorate, and third-party voters and those who disliked both him and Hillary meant he could win narrowly with 46% of the vote). Additionally, he has consistently been below his 46% vote share in his approval ratings. His re-election chances won't be fundamentally changed unless Trump makes inroads beyond his base, so he gets above 46% consistently and regularly, or if he loses part of his base (so if he gets under definitely 40% and probably goes below is previous all-time lows of just above 35%).

At this point I find approval ratings for President Trump remarkably stable. The question remains of whether a large number of people will vote for him because they like his agenda even if they despise his personality. This is the opposite of the situation with Barack Obama at an analogous time. The approval numbers are consistently lower than those of other Presidents at similar points in their Presidencies, roughly two years to eighteen months before the election, since the 1940s.

He needs cultural change to get his way politically. He has not seen the loss of the Protestant fundamentalist vote despite his rakish personal life. He has not gotten into any spats with Mike Pence. Maybe the Trump coalition accepts that the super-rich can get away with anything while the proles get poverty and repression.  

Trump has the most fanatical core support of any incumbent President since FDR. Obviously FDR was able to get the more grudging support out to vote for him. Trump lacks the grudging support  that truly effective Presidents at getting re-elected have. Trump's fanatical supporters will be disappointed that any state other than Vermont is "too close to call" except on behalf of Trump whom they expect to win big on Election Night in 2020 at 7PM...

I can imagine results that range from a bare win for President Trump, with him picking up nothing that he lost in 2016 even if it was then close (those states seem to be spiraling away from him) and losing two of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin -- which will be barely enough for re-election. In such a scenario he loses the popular election nationwide by 2-3% in part because the Democrat is picking up a few states with 70-30 margins, two of those California and New York to an electoral failure in which he gets roughly 40% of the popular vote as did Hoover or Carter. In the latter scenario, the Democrat wins over 400 electoral votes. We have seen nothing like that since LBJ clobbered Goldwater in 1964. Donald Trump is in no way a successful President.

I can't predict how the electoral map would look for Trump losing worse than did George H W Bush in 1992. The elder Bush was in a different situation, seeking a fourth term for his Party in the White House, and America had gotten jaded of the Reagan-Bush policy.

My prediction map?

big Trump loss by margin (8% or more in 2016 and much the same in 2020)
bare-to-modest loss by Trump in 2016 but will go for the Democrat by at least 8% in 2020)

Trump cannot afford to lose more than two of these five states but wins if he wins three of them -- except that he loses if the two that he loses are Florida and either Michigan or Pennsylvania)

Iowa and wayward districts of Maine and Nebraska -- probably won't make a difference

States that Trump could lose, but only in near-landslides 

Texas -- puts the Democrat past 400 electoral votes 

Beyond this we are seeing strange things happening, and I would be arrogant to predict what strange things would happen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, July 7-9, 800 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

Biden 51, Trump 42
Sanders 50, Trump 43
Warren 48, Trump 43
Harris 45, Trump 44

[Person Man]

NBC/WSJ, July 7-9, 800 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

Biden 51, Trump 42
Sanders 50, Trump 43
Warren 48, Trump 43
Harris 45, Trump 44

Isn’t that where his RV usually is?

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, July 7-9, 800 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

Biden 51, Trump 42
Sanders 50, Trump 43
Warren 48, Trump 43
Harris 45, Trump 44

Isn’t that where his RV usually is?

Yes, it's a typical number from NBC/WSJ, which has been one of Trump's better pollsters.  Their last 10 (approx. monthly, newest first):

45/52 (32/42)
44/53 (29/44)
46/51 (29/41)
43/53 (30/43)
46/52 (31/43)
43/54 (29/47)
43/54 (27/44)
46/52 (32/45)
47/49 (30/43)
44/52 (29/45)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is gonna have the same exact approval ratings as Dubya did going into reelection, landslide isnt guaranteed

[Person Man]

Trump is gonna have the same exact approval ratings as Dubya did going into reelection, landslide isnt guaranteed

He will win by a narrow but convincing amount unless sh**t hits the fan. Republicans will get their ass thoroughly kicked in 22 and 24 if he does in fact win unless Democrats just don’t have the votes to do anything anymore.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico weekly tracker, July 12-14, 1984 RV

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

Definitely vote for Trump 28
Probably vote for Trump 8
Probably someone else 8
Definitely someone else 45

GCB: D 44, R 35

[Person Man]

Morning Consult/Politico weekly tracker, July 12-14, 1984 RV

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

Definitely vote for Trump 28
Probably vote for Trump 8
Probably someone else 8
Definitely someone else 45

GCB: D 44, R 35

This was before the feud? I don't expect that much movement, but I do expect some negative movement. Anything else would show that either racism is being seen either acceptable or even essential to maintain society.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 14-16, 1500 adults including 1140 RV

Adults:

Approve 44 (+4)
Disapprove 48 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

Generic D 39 (-2), Trump 37 (+3)

RV:

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-2)

Strongly approve 30 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

Generic D 46 (-3), Trump 42 (+4)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (nc), R 40 (+2)

[Person Man]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 14-16, 1500 adults including 1140 RV

Adults:

Approve 44 (+4)
Disapprove 48 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

Generic D 39 (-2), Trump 37 (+3)

RV:

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-2)

Strongly approve 30 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

Generic D 46 (-3), Trump 42 (+4)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (nc), R 40 (+2)

Do you think people are rallying behind Trump's racism or is this just noise?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

So his approvals went up after his latest idiotic racism and Epstein scandals?