Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who are these people who approve of Trump until his racism flares up or tragic racist events like Charlottesville or El Paso happen and then go back to supporting him?

Semi deplorables.

Let's not stereotype truckers! (Although I don't doubt that the majority of them support Trump).

[pbrower2a]

Franklin&Marshall College, Pennsylvania:

Two in five (38%) registered voters believes President Trump has done a good enough job to deserve reelection, while three in five (61%) voters say it is time for a change.

The rest of the poll is Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor, which I do not even show except to say that the combination of excellent and fair sum to 37%, which is close to the number who want to re-elect the President.

https://www.fandm.edu/fandmpoll

No change in the state map here.  

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Disastrous polls for Trump and GOP. Once the House retirements happened, the Senate became up for grabs

[Progressive Pessimist]

Who are these people who approve of Trump until his racism flares up or tragic racist events like Charlottesville or El Paso happen and then go back to supporting him?

Semi deplorables.

I call them "stove-touchers."

[pbrower2a]

Franklin&Marshall College, Pennsylvania:

Two in five (38%) registered voters believes President Trump has done a good enough job to deserve reelection, while three in five (61%) voters say it is time for a change.

The rest of the poll is Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor, which I do not even show except to say that the combination of excellent and fair sum to 37%, which is close to the number who want to re-elect the President.

https://www.fandm.edu/fandmpoll

No change in the state map here.  

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Stranger in a strange land]

Franklin&Marshall College, Pennsylvania:

Two in five (38%) registered voters believes President Trump has done a good enough job to deserve reelection, while three in five (61%) voters say it is time for a change.

The rest of the poll is Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor, which I do not even show except to say that the combination of excellent and fair sum to 37%, which is close to the number who want to re-elect the President.

https://www.fandm.edu/fandmpoll

No change in the state map here.  

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

Trump is going to win Utah, just by less than a generic R would. Don't get your hopes up.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Quinnipiac, July 25-28, 1306 RV (change from early June)

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

2020 (change from May):

Definitely vote for Trump 32 (+1)
Consider voting for Trump 12 (nc)
Definitely not vote for Trump 54 (nc)

Given how much insanity he's shown in the past few days, this is still a shockingly high number even though a bad sign for anyone with reelection hopes. But I guess some of his supporters are just irredeemable. They would still support him even if he openly said "yes, I am a racist".

No they wouldn't, because they mostly don't want to believe their "truth" is racist. The last thing most of his supporters want is for Trump to say he believes what he believes because he's a racist. The last thing most of them want to do is confront that many of their beliefs are shared with those who openly espouse racism.

[pbrower2a]

Trump is going to win Utah, just by less than a generic R would. Don't get your hopes up.

Hope? More Schadenfreude than anything else.

OK, a short history of Presidential voting in Utah.  The first Presidential vote that Utah gave was for William Jennings Bryan in 1896 or William McKinley, and that was by a 65% margin. OK, Utah was a mining state back then, but it mined silver but not gold, and McKinley far preferred the yellow shiny stuff to silver in his politics. Somehow McKinley edged Bryan in 1900.  Teddy Roosevelt crushed Bryan in 1904 in Utah will winning every non-secessionist state. Taft must have been suitable to Utah in 1908, as he won a less-remarkable near-landslide (about on the scale of Obama in 2008. Utah was one of two states that Taft won outright in 1912 (the other was Vermont, then one of the most reliable R states). But Woodrow Wilson won Utah by a large margin in 1916,  so go figure. In the 1920s Utah went reliably Republican in Presidential voting, although Hoover was weaker in Utah than nationwide and really weak in Utah for the states not in the Confederacy.
 
Utah went from 53-46 for Hoover in 1928 to 56-41 against him in 1932 -- but so did many other states. FDR got levels of nearly 70% of the Utah vote in 1936 and more than 60% in 1940 and 1948. Utah went for Harry Truman in 1948, but to make a long story short... the state has gone only once for the Democratic nominee, that time when Goldwater lost the state 54-45. Utah has generally given Republicans some of the higherst percentages of vote totals in America.

What happened? Eisenhower wooed the Mormon hierarchy politically. Ike didn't wear religion on his sleeve, and Republicans since he have usually presented conservative family values well enough. Thus a conservative Republican wins by default over a liberal Democrat if both exude conservative family values (McCain against Obama)  and wins by a large margin when the conservative Republican faces a sexual rake (the elder Bush or Dole against Bill Clinton). OK, Utah voters did not like the talk of nuclear war against the Soviet Union -- one can go too far. But other than that, I can imagine a liberal Democrat defeating a Republican rake. If the election of 2012 had been Obama versus Trump, then Obama would have had a shot in winning Utah.     

The elder Bush won the state 43-27 in 1992 -- with Ross Perot getting the second-place number. Utah gave Bill Clinton his lowest percentage nationwide that year. Dole trounced Clinton in 1996 by a margin of 54-33, indicating among other things, that Bill Clinton was a poor cultural match for Utah twice. Neither Gore nor Kerry put in a good showing in Utah. Obama did well for a Democrat in Utah in getting  34% of the popular vote in 2008, only to be absolutely crushed by someone practically a Favorite Son in Utah in 2012.

Donald Trump did even worse in Utah in 2016 than did Goldwater in 1964 by a few tenths of a percent, but this time that was good enough to win.

Utah is profoundly conservative, but I can see the state giving its electoral support to a third-party conservative. Utah has little tolerance for scandal or for rakish figures in public office. Sure, Obama would lose to McCain or especially Romney... but given a choice between a liberal with solid family values and no scandals and a rake with scandals as the essence of his leadership, an Obama-like pol could defeat Trump. Obama obviously isn't running this time...

[CookieDamage]

McKinley edged Bryan in 1900.

SeanCody

[HST1948]

McKinley edged Bryan in 1900.

SeanCody

Best line of 2020

[Person Man]

McKinley edged Bryan in 1900.

SeanCody

Best line of 2020

We already have so many other things that just burn images into our mind...

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politidope/status/1160931484376522755

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/Politidope/status/1160931484376522755

I'll take disapproval, even including somewhat disapprove, as a basis for making such a map. However, as most elections have proven, particularly 2016, a candidate's lack of approval does not necessarily Translate into voting for the other person.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Hampshire: Gravis, Aug. 2-6, 505 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 32
Strongly disapprove 48

Is Trump racist?

Yes 49
No 40

Trump loses head-to-head against all Democrats tested with margins from 3 (Harris) to 13 (Biden).

[Person Man]

New Hampshire: Gravis, Aug. 2-6, 505 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 32
Strongly disapprove 48

Is Trump racist?

Yes 49
No 40

Trump loses head-to-head against all Democrats tested with margins from 3 (Harris) to 13 (Biden).

It is Gravis but a lot of their numbers are believable from time to time. Even that really conservative Republican internal that is always releasing just before elections... Trafalgar? At least those numbers are accurate under the assumption that Republican Machine will be out in force.

Given that I believe these numbers, the only way that Trump wins New Hampshire is that at least one state where the median voter is similar to the national median voter, finds it acceptable to vote for racists.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Aug. 9-11, 1993 RV (prior poll Aug. 5-7)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

(No priors on following questions)

Definitely vote for Trump 27
Probably vote for Trump 9
Probably someone else 7
Definitely someone else 47

GCB: D 43, R 37

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire: Gravis, Aug. 2-6, 505 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 32
Strongly disapprove 48

Is Trump racist?

Yes 49
No 40

Trump loses head-to-head against all Democrats tested with margins from 3 (Harris) to 13 (Biden).

No change in my map. New Hampshire looks close in the A-D poll to the result that Obama got in 2008. Strong disapproval is higher than approval of all kinds.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 10-13, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

Generic D 42 (+1), Trump 35 (-1)

RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 28 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

Generic D 50 (+2), Trump 39 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 38 (nc)

[Person Man]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 10-13, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

Generic D 42 (+1), Trump 35 (-1)

RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 28 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

Generic D 50 (+2), Trump 39 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 38 (nc)

Probably noise but maybe more people are noticing the tariffs ?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Tracker (weekly), Aug. 12-13, 1116 adults including 980 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-3)

RV:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't usually mention Rasmussen or other daily trackers here unless they start showing an interesting trend.  That may be happening with Rasmussen.  Trump's net approval has been gradually declining over the past 2 or 3 weeks.  Today it's at 45/54, the lowest since May.  Their "approval index" (strong approval minus strong disapproval) is also at the lowest level since May.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, Aug. 11-13, 1013 RV (3-week change)

Approve 43 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+7)

This appears to be Trump's worst showing in the Fox poll since Oct. 2017, which was his all-time low in it.

Also lots of gun questions.  Worth reading.

[CityofSinners]

Safe to say that the Trump bump is over again. We have seen this pattern before. Trump going up or down only to return back to -9 to -10.

[Inmate Trump]

Safe to say that the Trump bump is over again. We have seen this pattern before. Trump going up or down only to return back to -9 to -10.

If he would just shut his mouth for 5 seconds and keep his Twitter silent for even longer, his approval would probably be pretty good.

[Person Man]

Safe to say that the Trump bump is over again. We have seen this pattern before. Trump going up or down only to return back to -9 to -10.

If he would just shut his mouth for 5 seconds and keep his Twitter silent for even longer, his approval would probably be pretty good.

I would say that the best he can do is probably where W or Obama stabilized at going into their reelection. That is, about even with about 5% undecided. Most of the undecideds would break his way letting him win by a few million votes and like 3 states.