Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Person Man]

Iowa: PPP, April 29-30, 780 RV

Approve 49
Disapprove 49

2020: Trump 48, generic D 48

iowa is going to be close if Trump is losing. It's not if he's winning. I think it will run about 5 points right instead of 10 points right of the nation but there is still a lot trade war left.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa: PPP, April 29-30, 780 RV

Approve 49
Disapprove 49

2020: Trump 48, generic D 48

This suggests that President Trump is not being hurt so far by the release of the Mueller report. It could be that people who have already decided that they will  never vote for him already made their decision and the report at most reinforces their disdain for him, and that those who would vote for him could be defending their 2016 vote by approving of him in a tough moment for him. Iowa will be close. It is no longer the same state politically that gave Obama a near-double-digit martin in 2008, but neither will it be quite the same state that gave Trump a near-double-digit margin in 2016.  Intensity of the disdain for an incumbent does not give one more votes.

Note that only 2% of people are undecided on whether they approve or disapprove of Trump, and only 4% are undecided on whether to vote for Trump or for "Generic Democrat". 

Iowa will not decide the Presidential election. Wisconsin is the likely tipping-point state, and it puts a Democrat at 278 electoral votes and Trump at 272. Iowa is slightly more R than Wisconsin, but it is unlikely to be the difference between 266 and 272 electoral votes for the Democrat.   

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1127759869048709121

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1127759807463731200

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, May 10-13, 1006 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 49

Exactly the same as their April poll.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1128162217625575425

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1128162217625575425

He's not winning with those numbers.

Scott W. Rasmussen? That Scott Rasmussen?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1128162217625575425

He's not winning with those numbers.

Scott W. Rasmussen? That Scott Rasmussen?

Yes, that Scott Rasmussen.  Since separating from Rasmussen Reports, he's set up a polititics site at https://scottrasmussen.com/ that does daily polls by HarrisX.  (Note: the website seems to be available only intermittently.)

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1128254682600824834

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1128255137380753410

[Person Man]

I think if the media keeps showing that the economy is good, Trump will probably win the popular vote and some, if not all, the states he at least almost won last time minus one or two barely won. Minor third parties will probably keep him from a majority and I see him losing Michigan and Pennsylvania but winning New Hampshire, Maine At-Large, and Nevada.

[pbrower2a]

Were economic stewardship the exclusive measure of relevance in elections, then Obama should have won a landslide victory in 2012. Likewise, Trump should be facing a landslide victory. Obama was a good President; Trump offends too many sensibilities.

"It's the economy, stupid" applies to a President bumbling with the economy. When times are fairly good, other things go to the fore. Corruption? Foreign  policy?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

"It's the economy, stupid" applies to a President bumbling with the economy.

That's why it applies to Trump.

[Matty]

Trump is at -6.9 in rcp today.

That’s got to be approaching one of the lower spreads he has had, right?

Here’s something to ponder:

What if the “investigation of the investigators” finds illegal behavior on the part of fbi officials? John Durham is as respected as mueller. That would play into trump’s Narratives and would rally the base big time and spike turnout

[Person Man]

Trump is at -6.9 in rcp today.

That’s got to be approaching one of the lower spreads he has had, right?

Here’s something to ponder:

What if the “investigation of the investigators” finds illegal behavior on the part of fbi officials? John Durham is as respected as mueller. That would play into trump’s Narratives and would rally the base big time and spike turnout

He's balanced out in the 538 one. I don't see how he does any better with the new trade war.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Presented without comment:

Zogby, May 2-9, 852 LV

Approve 51
Disapprove 48

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Presented without comment:

Zogby, May 2-9, 852 LV

Approve 51
Disapprove 48

Poor Zogby.

[Person Man]

Presented without comment:

Zogby, May 2-9, 852 LV

Approve 51
Disapprove 48

Poor Zogby.

And he's doing BETTER with young voters. Maybe they really are just angry basement dwellers who blamed illegal immigration for being poor and abortion for being virgins

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, May 10-12, 1995 RV (1-week change)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+3)

Vote to reelect Trump?

Definitely Trump 27 (nc)
Probably Trump 10 (nc)
Probably someone else 7 (nc)
Definitely someone else 48 (+2)

GCB (no prior): D 43, R 37

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Morning Consult/Politico, May 10-12, 1995 RV (1-week change)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+3)

Vote to reelect Trump?

Definitely Trump 27 (nc)
Probably Trump 10 (nc)
Probably someone else 7 (nc)
Definitely someone else 48 (+2)

GCB (no prior): D 43, R 37

And just like that, bust goes the Zogby bubble, all over Trump's stupid face.

[Person Man]

Morning Consult/Politico, May 10-12, 1995 RV (1-week change)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+3)

Vote to reelect Trump?

Definitely Trump 27 (nc)
Probably Trump 10 (nc)
Probably someone else 7 (nc)
Definitely someone else 48 (+2)

GCB (no prior): D 43, R 37

As suspected. It appears, at least on the surface, that anyone who wants to vote for Trump at all will definitely vote for him and that those who really don't want him will vote straight ticket democrat. My guess that the swing vote will be the voters who are a little upset with him but are still curious or hold out some hope. My guess is that about 7% of the voters are among them and the rest are split about 48 to 44-ish.  

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Presented without comment:

Zogby, May 2-9, 852 LV

Approve 51
Disapprove 48

Oh my God, highly honourable Zogby!

Change since  FEB 14-17, 2019:
Approval 51% (+7)
Disapproval 48% (-5).

That's a swing of 12% towards your favourite President Donald J Trump. Complete and total EXONERATION! 

[Person Man]

Presented without comment:

Zogby, May 2-9, 852 LV

Approve 51
Disapprove 48

Oh my God, highly honourable Zogby!

Change since  FEB 14-17, 2019:
Approval 51% (+7)
Disapproval 48% (-5).

That's a swing of 12% towards your favourite President Donald J Trump. Complete and total EXONERATION! 

Who knows. Maybe he will get lucky with Zogby.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Trump is at highest aggregate approval level (45%) since a few days after his inauguration.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump is at -6.9 in rcp today.

That’s got to be approaching one of the lower spreads he has had, right?

Here’s something to ponder:

What if the “investigation of the investigators” finds illegal behavior on the part of fbi officials? John Durham is as respected as mueller. That would play into trump’s Narratives and would rally the base big time and spike turnout

Keep dreaming.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL I love how Zogby puts out a poll showing millennials, of all people, approving of Trump and not expecting at least some credibility problems.

[Person Man]

LOL I love how Zogby puts out a poll showing millennials, of all people, approving of Trump and not expecting at least some credibility problems.

"Ehhhh....he's a fatass mongoloid rapist who is literally turning our planet into Venus but hey... I can't complain".