Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, May 3-6, 1990 RV (1-week change)

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-4)

2020 vote:

Definitely Trump 27 (-1)
Probably Trump 10 (+1)
Probably someone else 7 (+1)
Definitely someone else 46 (-2)

Net: Trump 37 (nc), someone else 53 (-1)

[Tender Branson]

In the RCP average, Trump's approval rating has reached the highest level since his inauguration with 44.4%

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1126169453497061377

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1126169453497061377

The real surprise is that there were any Obama-Trump voters. What exactly were the Republicans doing to generate new support?

[Person Man]

In the RCP average, Trump's approval rating has reached the highest level since his inauguration with 44.4%

Hasn’t he reached that before several times? Isn’t he still two points lower than his last peak net approval?

[pbrower2a]

In the RCP average, Trump's approval rating has reached the highest level since his inauguration with 44.4%

Hasn’t he reached that before several times? Isn’t he still two points lower than his last peak net approval?

Donald Trump made promises of infrastructure which resonated among people in the iron-and-steel business and in the concrete and glass businesses. Much of the coal is used in processing iron ore, so people involved in mining iron ore, limestone, and coal heard exactly what they wanted to hear from Trump. iron and steel are  big variable components in construction of buildings and highways. It turns out that the first Trump proposal was to simply turn low-cost infrastructure over to profiteering monopolists so that people would pay much more for what they were now getting for free or at modest cost.  So that is how many Obama supporters became Trump voters in 2016.

Such is my take, and that explains Ohio, which depends heavily upon production of glass, steel, and coal for what remains of its prosperity.   That was also enough to explain the shift of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from Obama to Trump.

Trump cannot afford to lose much of the  vote that went from Obama to him.  If this is the only marginal vote that trended to Trump, it would not take much (numbers are net sing, D to R):

MI  9.69
PA  6.10
WI  7.71

to lose the three states that make the difference.OK, but what of states in which he came close?

ME 12.33
MN  6.18
NH  5.21
NV  4.26

A significant reversal of the swing takes these states out of meaningful contention.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP, May 1, 658 RV (prior poll March 27-28)

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

PPP, May 1, 658 RV (prior poll March 27-28)

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

Well, bust goes the gigantic Donald Trump bubble that was bobbing along the American skyline.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1126169453497061377

The real surprise is that there were any Obama-Trump voters. What exactly were the Republicans doing to generate new support?

There are certain states where there statistically had to be a lot of Obama-Trump people. Iowa is a great example: party switchers is basically the only explanation, not an upswing in GOP turnout.

[Progressive Pessimist]

PPP, May 1, 658 RV (prior poll March 27-28)

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

Well, bust goes the gigantic Donald Trump bubble that was bobbing along the American skyline.

I hope the media gives this poll as much attention as they did to his more positive ones from the last few days. They're going to fail us again in 2020, aren't they?

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP, May 1, 658 RV (prior poll March 27-28)

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

Well, bust goes the gigantic Donald Trump bubble that was bobbing along the American skyline.

I hope the media gives this poll as much attention as they did to his more positive ones from the last few days. They're going to fail us again in 2020, aren't they?

It's one poll that's counter to the current trend.  I wouldn't get overly excited unless it's followed by others that are similar.  Outliers happen.

[Person Man]

He’s back underwater by double digits according to 538. Maybe he’s getting better at the job. This was probably a pump because his department of labor said anybody who wants a job can have a job. Now we are getting report that the trade war might be escalating. Noice. There’s also the issue of looming constitutional crisis and whatever else is looming on the horizon. I don’t know. Maybe the trade negotiations will be smoothed  over with some hookers and blow tomorrow And maybe the packed courts will just tell Congress to shut the heck up.

[Annatar]

Trump's absolute approval rating on RCP is up to 44.6%, basically tied with June 4 2018 and October 25 where he had 44.6 and 44.7% approval. These are the highest numbers since the early part of his administration in February and March 2017 where he was around 45%.

[pbrower2a]

Trump's absolute approval rating on RCP is up to 44.6%, basically tied with June 4 2018 and October 25 where he had 44.6 and 44.7% approval. These are the highest numbers since the early part of his administration in February and March 2017 where he was around 45%.

Well we all know Trump is not going to fall south of 45% no matter what so I wouldn't read much into that.

In any event I am more concerned with disapproval than approval. It is difficult to undo disapproval, and 100 less disapproval is an obvious ceiling for the vote for him in the forthcoming election  -- barring that something unusual happens with his disapproval number.

We have different models for who the voters will be, and one of those models will be right. As an example, Rasmussen well fits an electorate of 2010 or 2014; such an electorate gives a GOP wave.  Such a model is obviously off for the electorates of 2006, 2008, 2012, or 2018.

....I do not as a rule predict the direction of polls except when some event seems to compel such, and the release of the Mueller Report seemed to have less impact, and perhaps even counterintuitive impact upon polling. 

[Matty]

Trump is up to 45.1 in the rcp average.

His approval, imo, has gone from bad to mediocre (if you look at his ratings at this time compared to past presidents.

Gallup and nbc/wsj have him at 46%, which is higher tha reagan, carter, and obama

Not saying that is good or ideal, but it isn’t insurmountable at all to win re-election if you can just get those numbers up a tiny bit

[Woody]

Trump is up to 45.1 in the rcp average.

His approval, imo, has gone from bad to mediocre (if you look at his ratings at this time compared to past presidents.

Gallup and nbc/wsj have him at 46%, which is higher tha reagan, carter, and obama

Not saying that is good or ideal, but it isn’t insurmountable at all to win re-election if you can just get those numbers up a tiny bit

With the Mueller investigation losing it's heat and the economy continuing to be good, it's likely that Trump's numbers will continue to rise the next few months.

[Person Man]

Trump is up to 45.1 in the rcp average.

His approval, imo, has gone from bad to mediocre (if you look at his ratings at this time compared to past presidents.

Gallup and nbc/wsj have him at 46%, which is higher tha reagan, carter, and obama

Not saying that is good or ideal, but it isn’t insurmountable at all to win re-election if you can just get those numbers up a tiny bit

With the Mueller investigation losing it's heat and the economy continuing to be good, it's likely that Trump's numbers will continue to rise the next few months.

His disapprovals continue to be kind of high. He's still off peak net approval. So, maybe people are "making peace" with Trump or more people are simply getting off the fence.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

With the Mueller investigation losing it's heat and the economy continuing to be good, it's likely that Trump's numbers will continue to rise the next few months.

Haha. No.

[Person Man]

With the Mueller investigation losing it's heat and the economy continuing to be good, it's likely that Trump's numbers will continue to rise the next few months.

Haha. No.

Maybe if people kind of give up. Just hope a Democrat never get into office because they might be tempted to simply bully the populace into complacency. Some, if not most, Republicans think Obama probably won again that way.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1126555773839056904

[pbrower2a]

Trump is up to 45.1 in the rcp average.

His approval, imo, has gone from bad to mediocre (if you look at his ratings at this time compared to past presidents.

Gallup and nbc/wsj have him at 46%, which is higher tha reagan, carter, and obama

Not saying that is good or ideal, but it isn’t insurmountable at all to win re-election if you can just get those numbers up a tiny bit

With the Mueller investigation losing it's heat and the economy continuing to be good, it's likely that Trump's numbers will continue to rise the next few months.

Except at election time, movements of approval and disapproval inside the margin of error are statistical noise.

So what do you think is behind such redactions as "Harm to Ongoing Material" and "Grand Jury"?  I look at the sentence structure in the summaries before redaction, and I cannot assume that there will be any exoneration. "Investigative Technique" and "Personal Privacy"? Do we really need to know?

The investigation is far from complete. People have been convicted in courts of law. This is  not a McCarthy-style witch-hunt. Note well that the FBI ceases an investigation when its suspicion comes to an end, and tells all only in a court of law. The FBI does not beat confessions out of suspects. It has a large dragnet, and it asks a few questions of innocent people that might expose some of their knowledge that clears the innocent but implicates the guilty, collects evidence and examines it in one of the finest labs in the world, and eventually gets the perpetrators to turn against each other or to tell lies that implode.  Basically, find the liar, and you find the criminal.

Anything that exonerates people would not be redacted. What remains redacted is still under investigation. I have patience with that. I prefer that offenders not get away with crimes.

The FBI may not be a secret police in the sense of the Gestapo, Cheka/NKVD/OGPU/KGB, or Mukhabarat, but it is secretive. It releases its findings to the public at the worst possible time for a criminal defendant -- the criminal trial.

For an allegedly-strong economy, Trump is doing badly. Maybe he has offended too many sensibilities.

[pbrower2a]

INDIANA

This does change the map. Since 1920 no Republican has won the Presidency while winning Indiana with a margin less than 10%. On election night, Indiana is typically one of the first states to be called (2008 was a blatant exception) because it closes its polls at 7 PM and it usually doesn't have much of a contest for the Presidency. The only Democrats to win Indiana outright in any Presidential election since 1920 were FDR (1932 and 1936), LBJ in 1964, and Obama in 2008. But what happens when Indiana is close? Truman barely lost the state in 1948 and would have had a landslide without the defection of Dixiecrat racists.

So on November 3, 2020, and you are a Republican and hear at 7PM that Donald Trump wins Indiana with a lead of 8%, then how do you feel?

Based in the historical pattern, you might have little to cheer that night. You are going to be biting your nails as the results come in from Ohio, and you might want to watch a sporting event or an old movie around 9PM as the vote comes in from Michigan and Wisconsin. 

President Donald Trump’s job approval sits just barely under water.  Overall, 46% of Indiana voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 48% disapprove (-2% net job approval).  Split along party lines, his approval is at 82% with Republicans, while 89 % of Democrats disapprove of his job performance.  Among Independents, just 35% approve of his job performance, while 45% disapprove.   

   

http://www.weaskamerica.com/surveys/2019/5/9/indiana-statewide-survey-of-registered-voters

This is registered voters. As conservative as Indiana is I expect Trump to pick up practically of the undecided voters, which will be enough to win Indiana. But for any Republican nominee for President, a bare win of Indiana suggests big trouble.

Not a great pollster, but if you are a Republican, then this is very bad news. Trump loses Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio -- maybe even Texas -- before he wins Indiana. This could even be literal with respect to timing.   

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL people are freaking out about a half-a-point bump in Trump's approval rating?

#Atlas

[pbrower2a]

I'm not using this set of polls. I use it as an illustration of what biased polls (commissioned by Big Business) look like.



I will be back with the link.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/gop-poll-reassuring-for-trump-in-key-states-but-offers-warning-about-michigan

I include nothing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Iowa: PPP, April 29-30, 780 RV

Approve 49
Disapprove 49

2020: Trump 48, generic D 48