Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, May 31-June 4, 944 adults including 783 RV (prior poll April 24-29)

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (-2)

RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-5)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-3)

2020 (RV only):

Definitely vote for Trump 36 (+3)
Definitely vote against Trump 51 (-3)
Unsure 13 (+1)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Marist, May 31-June 4, 944 adults including 783 RV (prior poll April 24-29)

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (-2)

RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-5)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-3)

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 36 (+3)
Definitely vote against Trump 51 (-3)
Unsure 13 (+1)

Uh-oh, looks another Trump "surge!"

[Gustaf]

Marist, May 31-June 4, 944 adults including 783 RV (prior poll April 24-29)

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (-2)

RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-5)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-3)

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 36 (+3)
Definitely vote against Trump 51 (-3)
Unsure 13 (+1)

Uh-oh, looks another Trump "surge!"

I'd suggest amending the originial post to clarify that the "Definitely vote for/etc" numbers are for registered voters.

In other words, while Trump is 43-49 in approval he's 36-51 on voting intention. Confirms what we've seen in other polls. I wonder if this is just a quirk or something for him to seriously worry about.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, May 31-June 4, 944 adults including 783 RV (prior poll April 24-29)

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (-2)

RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-5)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-3)

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 36 (+3)
Definitely vote against Trump 51 (-3)
Unsure 13 (+1)

Uh-oh, looks another Trump "surge!"

I'd suggest amending the originial post to clarify that the "Definitely vote for/etc" numbers are for registered voters.

In other words, while Trump is 43-49 in approval he's 36-51 on voting intention. Confirms what we've seen in other polls. I wonder if this is just a quirk or something for him to seriously worry about.

That's why I put it in the RV section.  If there were an equivalent result for the general adult population (there isn't one) I would have put that one in the Adults section.  But I guess it could be ambiguous so I'll add a clarification.

[Gustaf]

Marist, May 31-June 4, 944 adults including 783 RV (prior poll April 24-29)

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (-2)

RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-5)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-3)

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 36 (+3)
Definitely vote against Trump 51 (-3)
Unsure 13 (+1)

Uh-oh, looks another Trump "surge!"

I'd suggest amending the originial post to clarify that the "Definitely vote for/etc" numbers are for registered voters.

In other words, while Trump is 43-49 in approval he's 36-51 on voting intention. Confirms what we've seen in other polls. I wonder if this is just a quirk or something for him to seriously worry about.

That's why I put it in the RV section.  If there were an equivalent result for the general adult population (there isn't one) I would have put that one in the Adults section.  But I guess it could be ambiguous so I'll add a clarification.

Ah, I think my problem was the format of

"Adults:

[bla bla]

RV:

[bla bla]

2020:

[bla bla]"

Which made it seem as if 2020 was a distinct section.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, May 30-June 7, 906 adults (1-month change)

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

[pbrower2a]

Marist, May 31-June 4, 944 adults including 783 RV (prior poll April 24-29)

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (-2)

RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-5)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-3)

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 36 (+3)
Definitely vote against Trump 51 (-3)
Unsure 13 (+1)

Uh-oh, looks another Trump "surge!"

I'd suggest amending the originial post to clarify that the "Definitely vote for/etc" numbers are for registered voters.

In other words, while Trump is 43-49 in approval he's 36-51 on voting intention. Confirms what we've seen in other polls. I wonder if this is just a quirk or something for him to seriously worry about.

The "vote for/against" question is is closer to definitive than approval/disapproval or favorable/unfavorable numbers. The final vote is definitive by law, barring only overt fraud.

Obviously, "vote against" includes third-Party or independent, right-leaning alternatives to the President.

[pbrower2a]

It's New York State and a favorability poll. Notice that Trump loses to some deep also-rans in New York Stte.

58% Kirsten Gillibrand
34% Donald Trump

48% Bill de Blasio
36% Donald Trump

This Siena College Poll was conducted June 2-6, 2019 by telephone calls conducted in English to 812 New York State registered voters. Respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest male in the household. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting.

https://scri.siena.edu/2019/06/10/voters-on-end-of-session-agenda-yes-on-marijuana-55-40

Because it is favorability I will not put it on the map.

[pbrower2a]

New York Times; seventeen-state internal poll

June 10, 2019

WASHINGTON — Late at night, using his old personal cellphone number, President Trump has been calling former advisers who have not heard from him in years, eager to discuss his standing in the polls against the top Democrats in the field — specifically Joseph R. Biden Jr., whom he describes in those conversations as “too old” and “not as popular as people think.”

After being briefed on a devastating 17-state poll conducted by his campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, Mr. Trump told aides to deny that his internal polling showed him trailing Mr. Biden in many of the states he needs to win, even though he is also trailing in public polls from key states like Texas, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And when top-line details of the polling leaked, including numbers showing the president lagging in a cluster of critical Rust Belt states, Mr. Trump instructed aides to say publicly that other data showed him doing well.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/10/us/politics/trump-biden-iowa.html

Assume that the results will be suppressed to the extent and for as long a time as possible. I don't even know what states were polled.

I found the pollster's website, and I found no data on this internal poll. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, June 7-9, 1991 RV (1-week change)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

This isn't their full weekly tracker; it just has a few questions about the Hyde Amendment and Biden's support of it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Global Strategy Group, May 31-June 3, 1113 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 21 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)


Trump is fit/unfit to serve as President:

Fit 41 (-3) - feel strongly 26 (-4)
Unfit 59 (+3) -  feel strongly 47 (+5)


An interesting question that I haven't seen before --

Which do you agree with more:  As president, Donald Trump has been better/worse than I expected when he got elected

Better 42 (strongly 22)
Worse 58 (strongly 40)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, June 6-10, 1214 RV (3-week change)

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

A big bump for Trump.  But the head-to-head matchups tell a different story:


Biden 53, Trump 40
Sanders 51, Trump 42
Harris 49, Trump 41
Warren 49, Trump 42
Buttigieg 47, Trump 42
Booker 47, Trump 42

[ProudModerate2]

Seventeen states and one Congressional district were decided by 10% or less in 2016 ...

You have 17 states colored-in on your map, but two (not one) Congressional Districts.
Is it one or two Congressional Districts?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Seventeen states and one Congressional district were decided by 10% or less in 2016 ...

You have 17 states colored-in on your map, but two (not one) Congressional Districts.
Is it one or two Congressional Districts?

Trump won NE-02 by 2.24% and ME-02 by 10.29%. 

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, June 6-10, 1214 RV (3-week change)

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

A big bump for Trump.  But the head-to-head matchups tell a different story:


Biden 53, Trump 40
Sanders 51, Trump 42
Harris 49, Trump 41
Warren 49, Trump 42
Buttigieg 47, Trump 42
Booker 47, Trump 42

If he can't crack 42%, then he stands to lose in a landslide.

[pbrower2a]

Seventeen states and one Congressional district were decided by 10% or less in 2016 ...

You have 17 states colored-in on your map, but two (not one) Congressional Districts.
Is it one or two Congressional Districts?

Trump won NE-02 by 2.24% and ME-02 by 10.29%. 

I showed ME-02 in color because I was not then sure whether it was just over 10% or just under 10% in its margin for Trump. It is a swing district this time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 9-11, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+2)

2020: Generic D 39 (-1), Trump 36 (nc)

RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 30 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

2020: Generic D 46 (nc), Trump 41 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (+1), R 40 (-1)

[Young Conservative]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 9-11, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+2)

2020: Generic D 39 (-1), Trump 36 (nc)

RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 30 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

2020: Generic D 46 (nc), Trump 41 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (+1), R 40 (-1)

Could this be a tarriff bump? Never thought I would say tarriffs could help, but i think Mexico caving threw Trump a bone and benefited the economy

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 9-11, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+2)

2020: Generic D 39 (-1), Trump 36 (nc)

RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 30 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

2020: Generic D 46 (nc), Trump 41 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (+1), R 40 (-1)

Could this be a tarriff bump? Never thought I would say tarriffs could help, but i think Mexico caving threw Trump a bone and benefited the economy

What bump?  This is noise-level fluctuation.  His net approvals in both groups improved by 1%.  OTOH, his strong approvals in both declined by a net 1%. 

[pbrower2a]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 9-11, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+2)

2020: Generic D 39 (-1), Trump 36 (nc)

RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 30 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

2020: Generic D 46 (nc), Trump 41 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (+1), R 40 (-1)

Could this be a tariff bump? Never thought I would say tariffs could help, but i think Mexico caving threw Trump a bone and benefited the economy

I don't see a bump. First, any change under 4% is within the margin of error -- but when numbers for "strong approval" and "strong disapproval" both rise by minuscule amounts, I see a tendency for people to become more firm in their attitudes.

Note that strong disapproval for both 'adults' and 'registered voters' is very close to total approval, which means that about as many people have no confidence in the current President than accept that he is doing most things well. Much of electioneering in the final stage is canvassing, and 'strong disapproval' means that someone canvassing for Trump is going to find some rude responses that can discourage all but the most fanatical supporter.   

[CrypticParrot]

Yea fluctuations within 4% are within the margin of error and we shouldn't extrapolate conclusions based on that

[pbrower2a]

EPIC-MRA, Michigan:

(This) poll ... offers only a statistical snapshot of the electorate at a given point in time and, nine months before the Democratic primary and 17 months before the general election, there is no saying who will win the Democratic nomination or whether Trump can build more support and get reelected.

But it does indicate continued issues for the president in a state that helped him win the Electoral College vote three years ago. According to the poll:

    49% of those surveyed outright support Biden, who was President Barack Obama's vice president, with 3% leaning toward supporting him, compared with 37% who support Trump and 4% who lean toward supporting the president.  Only 7% were undecided.

    Biden had a 57%-35% edge in metro Detroit, the most populous area of the state, but also led the outer ring of Detroit's suburbs, 62%-35%, and in northern Michigan, 46%-42% according to the poll. Trump held slight leads of 3 percentage points in central and west Michigan and in and around Bay City.

    Biden led among all age groups but had an especially large lead — 65%-to-27% — among younger voters ages 18-34. Porn said that suggests that even if younger voters select someone other than the 76-year-old Biden in the Democratic primary, they would still consider supporting him in the general election.

    While white voters split between the two candidates with 47% each, African Americans supported Biden 95%-3%.

    While Democrats supported Biden 93%-2%, Trump can't count on the same level of support from Republicans, with 83% supporting him and 12% backing Biden. Meanwhile, among self-described independents, 48% supported Biden, 36% supported Trump and 16% were undecided. 

The Biden-Trump matchup was the only head-to-head contest polled in June by EPIC-MRA even though there are nearly two dozen Democrats running for the nomination to face Trump in 2020.

It is an excellent-good-fair-poor poll, so I do not show it on the map.   

But note well:

1. Donald Trump will not win re-election if he gets only 83% of the Republican vote
2. He will not win Michigan (or many other states) if he breaks even with the white vote
3. He cannot win Michigan without winning northern Michigan (the Upper Peninsula and the northern Lower Peninsula
4. He is doing badly in the outer suburbs of Detroit, where he did well enough to win the state
5. He is nearly breaking even in 'western Michigan', which is almost identical to Indiana in its voting patterns.

Michigan is not a microcosm of America, politically or otherwise.

[pbrower2a]

My guess about the internal poll:

Seventeen states and one Congressional district were decided by 10% or less in 2016. The states in color are the most likely candidates:

2016 result among states decided by 10% or less:

8% or more -- saturation 7
4% to 7.99% -- saturation 5
1.5% to 3.99% -- saturation 3
under 1.5% -- saturation 2

Data from President Donald Trump's first internal reelection campaign poll conducted in March, obtained exclusively by ABC News, showed him losing a matchup by wide margins to former Vice President Joe Biden in key battleground states.


Trump has repeatedly denied that such data exists.

The polling data, revealed for the first time by ABC News, showed a double-digit lead for Biden in Pennsylvania 55-39 and Wisconsin 51-41 and had Biden leading by seven points in Florida. In Texas, a Republican stronghold, the numbers showed the president only leading by two points.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/president-trumps-internal-polling-data-march-showed-joe/story?id=63718268


It's from March, so it is not current from any state. This suggests anything from a 7% to 9% swing in at least four of the states in question. Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would be enough to swing electoral results from a Trump win in 2016 to a Trump loss in 2020.

Trump's people would surely have lauded any results that show him getting closer results or even staying similarly close in any state that he lost, including Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, or Virginia. A 7-9% shift would be more than enough to swing Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina. Iowa and Ohio would at least be 'iffy', and I would expect Iowa to go against Trump (not that its six electoral votes would decide anything) because its demographics are so much like those of Wisconsin. 

New Mexico would not take much to be a blowout loss for the President in 2020. And then there is Michigan. NE-02 was not likely polled, but demographic trends alone should make it close in themselves. OK, I will not show it. Neither will I show ME-02.

There are just no surprises here. Trump's internal polling  is close to polling that I have seen elsewhere.

8% or more -- saturation 7
4% to 7.99% -- saturation 5
2% to 3.99% -- saturation 2
under 2% -- white

This data, including the estimates that I draw from it, is obsolete. I see something close to an electoral win by Joseph Biden to that of Obama in 2008 in the event that President Trump holds onto Ohio, or something analogous to either win by Bill Clinton in the 1990s if the President loses Ohio.

It would be pointless to put this data onto a general map. Even the legend does not fit, as in this one I am using 8% (twice the margin of error) as the borderline between meaningful contest and not-so-meaningful contest instead of the more conventional 10%. Besides -- it is from March, so it is about three months old.

The President's internal pollster seems to be getting results similar to those of just about everyone else. 

[pbrower2a]

Zogby, several states.



AZ 47-53
FL 48-50
MI 40-61 (rounding error... I call it 40-60)
OH 46-53
PA 44-55
SC 57-42
WI 45-53

Well, Trump will not lose the entire Atlantic coast...

OK, it is Zogby, a much-derided pollster, but the results look conventional enough. Ohio is something of a surprise until you see how execrable the results are for the President in Michigan, which looks much like the Glengariff and EPIC-MRA polls.   Except for the areas south and east of the I-71 and I-76 corridor, Ohio is politically much like Michigan; it endures the same distress in industrial areas and among farmers. Ohio is a big soybean-producing state, and the trade war hurts soybean farmers. Ohio differs from Michigan in that to the east and south of the suburbs of Cincinnati, Columbus, Canton, and Youngstown is Appalachian.

Dislike Zogby? There will be more polls.

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[pbrower2a]

So how did Trump win in 2016?



Let's discuss the states that swung from Obama to Trump and those that nearly did so. 

Democrats did not vote in the numbers in which they voted in 2012. About 170K fewer people voted for Clinton than for Obama in Iowa, nearly 500K in Ohio, 300K in Wisconsin,  200K in Minnesota, nearly 200K in Michigan, 50K in Maine, and 5K in Pennsylvania.  Clinton actually got more votes than Obama in Florida, but Trump gained even more in Florida. 

Trump won Florida and Pennsylvania by gaining more votes. He did not get many more votes in Wisconsin (2K), far fewer than enough to win by added R voters. Trump got 65K more voters in Michigan.

If Democrats get out the vote in 2020, they win.