Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov, May 12-14, 1500 adults including 1244 RV (1-week change)

Adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+2)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+3)

2020: Generic D 43 (+4), Trump 34 (nc)

RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 29 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+2)

2020: Generic D 50 (+3), Trump 39 (+1)

[Person Man]

I think the trade war and these southern and southernized states passing Shariah law is probably taking its toll.

[OneJ]

It’s strange that people are focused on the RCP average while ignoring the 538 one which has been a lot more consistent and honestly more trustworthy.

[Person Man]

It’s strange that people are focused on the RCP average while ignoring the 538 one which has been a lot more consistent and honestly more trustworthy.

RCP is fake news. They are accurate when they have to be but they thought the democrats were only going to barely take the house. NS only underestimated them by 2 or 3 seats. FWIW, HE underestimated them almost as bad as RCP did. RR thought they would LOSE seats but TBF, a lot of people were thinking that way when Donnely was getting his ass handed to him and Democrats were underperforming in the first  Bible Belt seats. The discussion quickly changed when Republicans started falling like flies in NJ and VA and McGraff was looking decent. 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I think the trade war and these southern and southernized states passing Shariah law is probably taking its toll.

Nuh. Today's YouGov, MAY 13-14:
45/50 (1000 Adults)
45/53 (765 RV)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3bgeacw1lw/tabs_Trump_Tweets_20190513.pdf


Basically, no significant movements since shutdown.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[Person Man]

I think the trade war and these southern and southernized states passing Shariah law is probably taking its toll.

Nuh. Today's YouGov, MAY 13-14:
45/50 (1000 Adults)
45/53 (765 RV)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3bgeacw1lw/tabs_Trump_Tweets_20190513.pdf


Basically, no significant movements since shutdown.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Gosh, that's jumpy. But maybe what we have is what we have unless there is some sort of black swan.
It's either enough for him to just get enough to the polls in 2020 or for him to lose like McCain or 41 did.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov's daily snapshots are VERY noisy.  I recommend only using their weekly tracker for trends.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

YouGov's daily snapshots are VERY noisy.  I recommend only using their weekly tracker for trends.

They are noisier because of smaller sample, 1500 vs 1000, but the difference should NOT be VERY big. It is not a magic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov's daily snapshots are VERY noisy.  I recommend only using their weekly tracker for trends.

They are noisier because of smaller sample, 1500 vs 1000, but the difference should NOT be VERY big. It is not a magic.

Look at the data over a reasonable period.  The dailies are much noisier than the weeklies.  There must be a difference in methodology between the two, but I don't know what it is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac, May 9-14, 978 RV

Approve 42
Disapprove 54

Trump +2 (vs O'Rourke) to -11 (vs Biden) in GE matchups.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Trump's approval has been on the rise, just as I predicted it would when the Democrat Party snatched control of the House from the Paul 'lyin' Ryan GOP. Political developments over the past few months have made me realize I'd rather have San Fran Nan over the Ayn Rand Fanboy any day, because Trump can only benefit from being America's bulwark against the creeping rise of $ocialism, unfettered migration, and legitimate bigotry that the D's represent. Small Paul was useless at best and a backstabber at worst anyway.

Trump could very well be at 50% approval on election day. Because of the fact that Trump's unique trait is that lots of people who disapprove of him can nevertheless vote for him (see: 37% approval, 46% result in popular vote even when voter fraud is factored in), he doesn't even need to be at 50%. Dare I say that he could have even won against the likes of Crazy Bernie and Sleepy Joe with the 2018 electorate? After all, lots of 2018 D voters could and would still back Lil Donnie in the right circumstances. 

Uh oh guys. I think we have almost 6 more years on our hands! The question at this point may as well be "Who should succeed him to ensure America's future?" Pence? DeSantis? Cotton? Kobach? Trump Jr? Cruz? Oh well, I'll taste that delicious buffet when the time comes.

[Person Man]

Trump's approval has been on the rise, just as I predicted it would when the Democrat Party snatched control of the House from the Paul 'lyin' Ryan GOP. Political developments over the past few months have made me realize I'd rather have San Fran Nan over the Ayn Rand Fanboy any day, because Trump can only benefit from being America's bulwark against the creeping rise of $ocialism, unfettered migration, and legitimate bigotry that the D's represent. Small Paul was useless at best and a backstabber at worst anyway.

Trump could very well be at 50% approval on election day. Because of the fact that Trump's unique trait is that lots of people who disapprove of him can nevertheless vote for him (see: 37% approval, 46% result in popular vote even when voter fraud is factored in), he doesn't even need to be at 50%. Dare I say that he could have even won against the likes of Crazy Bernie and Sleepy Joe with the 2018 electorate? After all, lots of 2018 D voters could and would still back Lil Donnie in the right circumstances. 

Uh oh guys. I think we have almost 6 more years on our hands! The question at this point may as well be "Who should succeed him to ensure America's future?" Pence? DeSantis? Cotton? Kobach? Trump Jr? Cruz? Oh well, I'll taste that delicious buffet when the time comes.

This guy sounds like a spy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

OK, to check my own impressions on the relative noisiness of the YouGov polls, I plotted their daily Trump approval ratings for the last month.  This is the rating among adults from 538's database.



Weekly approval among adults in the same time period was 41, 42, 42, 42, 39.

You can decide for yourself which one is noisier.

[pbrower2a]

Texas. Emerson.

President Trump has a 46% approval/44% disapproval in Texas. However, he remains popular within his party, leading Republican opponent former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld 87% to 13%. (n=344, +/-5.3%). This is consistent with other Emerson polls conducted in different states over the past several months.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/2020-texas-biden-and-beto-in-dead-heat-in-democratic-primary

Note the huge margin of error. That reflects Texas itself due to huge regional differences and the obvious reality that the state has not usually in play politically in any statewide races.

A 13% support for Bill Weld in Texas indicates potential trouble for the President not in getting re-nominated for President, but instead that dissent already is forming within the Republican Party and among conservatives. Weld has no particular ties to Texas, so should Trump approval stay around 45% in Texas, then the state could easily go 47% D, 45% T, and 8% C: "D" for the Democratic nominee, "T" for Trump, and "C" for some conservative third-party or independent alternative.

Texas, as if I need repeat myself, looks to be straddling the 400-EV line for any Democratic nominee for President as it has since the late 1980s.   

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1128771952083066880

As many others have pointed out, the economy is only a campaign issue when it's bad.  When it's good, other issues take priority with the average voter.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

OK, to check my own impressions on the relative noisiness of the YouGov polls, I plotted their daily Trump approval ratings for the last month.  This is the rating among adults from 538's database.



Weekly approval among adults in the same time period was 41, 42, 42, 42, 39.

You can decide for yourself which one is noisier.

Plot the binomial given that Trump's "true" approval is 42% and 1000 voters.

n=1000
p=0.42
print numpy.random.binomial(n, p, 20)/10

gave me

[44 44 41 42 39 43 40 39 42 41 44 40 40 41 41 44 43 43 42 44]

Noisy enough? Stat 101.

[GeorgiaModerate]

OK, to check my own impressions on the relative noisiness of the YouGov polls, I plotted their daily Trump approval ratings for the last month.  This is the rating among adults from 538's database.



Weekly approval among adults in the same time period was 41, 42, 42, 42, 39.

You can decide for yourself which one is noisier.

Plot the binomial given that Trump's "true" approval is 42% and 1000 voters.

n=1000
p=0.42
print numpy.random.binomial(n, p, 20)/10

gave me

[44 44 41 42 39 43 40 39 42 41 44 40 40 41 41 44 43 43 42 44]

Noisy enough? Stat 101.

I think you've just (inadvertently?) supported the point I was trying to make.  Yes, that kind of noise is quite natural in a random variation.  And that's exactly why people shouldn't be keen on pointing out a daily jump from 41 to 45, as a certain person did upthread. 

YouGov's weekly results have a flatter trend; maybe this is due to some methodological difference, maybe not.   To me, that makes them more useful than looking at daily fluctuations.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1128802279983919105
I haven't found a link to the actual poll.  Link.  Last month they were at 45/51.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1128802279983919105
I haven't found a link to the actual poll.  Link.  Last month they were at 45/51.

More people having an opinion, then? The people who went from “don’t know because I’m smelly” went from 3% to 1%.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1129381077297106945

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1129381077297106945

Him and his underlings have been up to a lot bizarre, violent, and silly behavior this last week

[pbrower2a]

OK, to check my own impressions on the relative noisiness of the YouGov polls, I plotted their daily Trump approval ratings for the last month.  This is the rating among adults from 538's database.



Weekly approval among adults in the same time period was 41, 42, 42, 42, 39.

You can decide for yourself which one is noisier.

Plot the binomial given that Trump's "true" approval is 42% and 1000 voters.

n=1000
p=0.42
print numpy.random.binomial(n, p, 20)/10

gave me

[44 44 41 42 39 43 40 39 42 41 44 40 40 41 41 44 43 43 42 44]

Noisy enough? Stat 101.

I think you've just (inadvertently?) supported the point I was trying to make.  Yes, that kind of noise is quite natural in a random variation.  And that's exactly why people shouldn't be keen on pointing out a daily jump from 41 to 45, as a certain person did upthread. 

YouGov's weekly results have a flatter trend; maybe this is due to some methodological difference, maybe not.   To me, that makes them more useful than looking at daily fluctuations.

...and that's why we have the concept of margin of error. A minor change in approval or disapproval is meaningless. 4% or more? Much so.

[Comrade Funk]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1129490380322463745

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1129488288509767688

[The Mikado]

Funny how GOP people were crowing about RCP's polling average chart and suddenly stopped.

[Brittain33]

Wasn’t someone here extrapolating up from his bump to posit Trump at 50% on Election Day? LOL.