2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/maharashtra-news/article/to-keep-bjp-at-bay-state-congress-chief-says-willing-to-back-shiv-sena-in-maharashtra/508108

"To keep BJP at bay, state Congress chief says 'willing to back Shiv Sena in Maharashtra'"

This matches other comments from NCP about backing a SHS government in Maharashtra.   I do not think this is serious and is meant as "Operation Chaos" to have BJP and SHS tear each other apart during their power sharing talks.

[jaichind]

In Haryana JJP will be part of a BJP-JJP government BJP CM to continue as CM and JJP leader Dushyant Chautala as DCM

In Maharashtra SHS is digging in on 50/50 sharing of CM or no government formation.   If they insist on this position a major crisis might emerge. 

[jaichind]

I calculated my own Maharashtra non-NOTA vote shares

2019 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+        274             102                 34.47% (NCP SWP KSP YSP were part of INC+)

INC rebel                       1                    0.95%
NCP rebel                       1                   0.79%

SHS rebel                      1                    0.37% (INC+ backed 2 SHS rebels one of which one won)

BVA           31                3                    0.68% (tactical alliance with INC+)

SP               7                2                    0.23% (tactical alliance with INC+)

PWPI         24                1                    0.98% (tactical alliance with INC+)

CPM            8                1                    0.38% (tactical alliance with INC+)

NMS+      102               1                    2.31% (tactical alliance with INC+)

JSS             4               1                    0.36% (tactical alliance with INC+)

BJP+       289            161                 42.66% (SHS was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                      4                   3.18%
SHS rebel                     4                   2.05%

RSPS          1                1                   0.15% (pro-NDA)

PJP             2                1                   0.49% (SHS splinter)

VBA+      238                0                   4.65%

AIMIM+    45                2                   1.37% (tactical alliance with VBA+)

BSP        236                0                   0.93%



There was 1 seat where both BJP and SHS ran despite their alliance.  BJP had nominated the son of old SHS CM and SHS rebel Narayan Rane which out of honor SHS had to run a candidate against.  The BJP won in a de facto BJP-SHS race ergo BJP+ ran 289 out of 288 seats.   Both INC and NCP had some candidates that failed to withdraw their papers but I counted them as INC or NCP rebels since they were not backed by their respective party.   There was one seats in the tribal Far East Maharashtra where both INC and NCP were strong and due to local tribal rivalries ran a candidate in a NCP-INC-BJP race which NCP won.

INC+ did well to create a bunch of tactical alliances with various allies.  It also managed to form such tactical alliances with 2 SHS rebels, NMS and pro-UPA JSS.  All these deals helped INC+ to exceed expectations.  There was one seat where the INC candidate papers were rejected last minute in where it was expected to be competitive.  In that seat some of INC+ vote went to AIMIM in a losing effort against the BJP.

Relative to 2019 LS elections BJP+ clearly lost a bunch of support to BJP and SHS rebels as well as NMS.  INC+ also made small gains against both BJP+ and VBA-AIMIM to produce a closer seat count result than the 2019 LS landslide.

Overall BJP failed to transfer its vote as cleanly to SHS as well as NCP vote transfer to INC.  The vote share for the BJP in seats it contested was 45.08% but was 39.09% for SHS.  The vote share for the NCP in seats it contested was 39.28% but was 33.70% for INC.   Part of the reason for INC's poor result was that it ran a poor campaign without a clear face of the party.  The large number of BJP and SHS rebels clearly showed signs of internal sabotage, especially by the local BJP.

[jaichind]

The new BJP-JJP Haryana government installed.  It has the backing of 40 BJP MLAs, 10 JJG MLAs, and 7 independent  MLAs  (5 BJP rebels, 1 INC rebel, 1 INLD rebel) to make it 57 out of 90 seats.

[jaichind]

The BJP-JJP alliance in Haryana seems a bit wierd.  The BJP could have cobbled up a majority by getting the 7 independents(5 BJP rebels, 1 INC rebel, 1 INLD rebel) and the 1 man INLD splinter HLP to support BJP.  In the end the BJP did not want to be dependent on people like Gopal Goyal Kanda who is the leader of the 1 man INLD splinter HLP.  Gopal Goyal Kanda is an accused in several rape and corruption scandals.  As a result the BJP played it safe by roping in JJP for a stable majority.

Why JJP joined BJP also seems strange. The JJP vote were in good part Jat anti-BJP tactical voting and now by joining up with BJP the JJP is pushing its vote base back to INLD and/or INC.  Part of the reason seems to be that JJP leader Dushyant Chautala by now being DCM can work to help his father Ajay Singh Chautala who is behind bars for corruption out of jail.  Dushyant Chautala's estranged grandfather and former INLD CM Om Prakash Chautala  who in turn is the son of one of the "3 Lals" Devi Lal is also behind bars.  Perhaps what Dushyant Chautala is hoping for is by being in power he can get his entire clan out of jail and as a result reunited JJP and INLD with him being the one and only inheritor of the political legacy of Devi Lal.   And when accused of selling out to BJP he can say "well, my grandfather Om Prakash Chautala and great grandfather Devi Lal have worked  with BJP in the past so why cannot I?" with the main problem that when the INLD worked with BJP in the past the INLD was the senior partner and now JJP is working with BJP as the junior partner.

[jaichind]

The pattern of results in Maharashtra and Haryana should have BJP worried about the upcoming Jharkhand assembly election which will be called any minute.  The situation in Jharkhand is very similar to Maharashtra and Haryana.  We have a BJP government performing at average or below average levels with a BJP CM who is not from the dominate community (Marathas in Maharashtra, Jats in Haryana, Tribals in Jharkhand.   Jharkhand CM Raghubar Das is from an OBC background and just like Haryana and Maharashtra the BJP strategy is to consolidate the non-Muslim non-dominate community vote and then use Modi to rally the enough of dominate community to the BJP to give it a landslide victory.  A key addition is to lure local opposition power barons to join up with the BJP to add to the BJP landslide.  In 2019 LS elections this worked very well in Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jharkhand despite signs that rural distress and BJP community engineering were provoking the local dominate community.  

Now it comes out that the local dominate community voted for Modi in 2019 LS election but swung away from the BJP in the assembly elections despite BJP poaching local opposition leaders.  Now in Jharkhand we have the same pattern with BJP potentially in trouble with the tribal vote with a non-tribal CM and poaching local INC JMM JVM leaders in hope of cornering the tribal vote along with Modi.  If Maharashtra and Haryana is any sign this might not work and the BJP could very well lose ground in Jharkhand in the upcoming elections just like BJP did in  Maharashtra and Haryana.

There was a story from a few days ago from Jharkhand which should worry BJP.  The BJP CM Raghubar Das was going to a roadshow in several towns.  The local schools got all the children to put BJP uniforms and hold BJP signs in these roadshows.  And when Raghubar Das was late for several hours the children were made to wait without lunch.  Stories like this add to the image of BJP arrogance and could have negative consequences for hte BJP


The good news for the BJP is that there is still time to try to avoid the mistakes they made in Maharashtra and Haryana in Jharkhand.

[jaichind]

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-from-2021-those-with-2-children-in-assam-will-be-ineligible-for-govt-jobs/340949

"From 2021, Those With More Than 2 Children In Assam Will Be Ineligible For Govt Jobs"

Looks like the Assam BJP government is going to try to copy the PRC One Child policy.  By the early 1990s the PRC One Child policy has de facto became a policy of fines for too many children and subsidies for few if no children which is what Assam seems to want to do.  In reality this seems like an attempt to slow down the Mulsim population surge due to higher birth rates among Muslims as well as to route government jobs toward Hindus.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/congress-to-seal-deal-with-jmm-be-junior-partner-in-jharkhand/articleshow/71798719.cms

"Congress to seal deal with JMM, be junior partner in Jharkhand"
 
In Jharkhand INC has in principle have accepted being part of the JMM-INC-JVM-RJD alliance by accepting 20-25 seats out of 81.  In the LS elections it was INC 7 JMM 4 JVM 2 RJD 1 (RJD ran in another seat unauthorized) and it was agreed that INC will take a junior role in the assembly election.  It also seems that NCP will try to get into the act.  I suspect seat distribution would be something like JMM 38 INC 22 JVM 15 RJD 6 and perhaps NCP getting a seat at the expense of one of the allies.  If this sort of alliance can be pulled off then the BJP-AJSU would face a fairly united opposition.

[jaichind]

Latest news in Jharkhand alliance talks is that JMM-INC agreed to JMM 44 INC 27 RJD 5 Left Parties 5. It seems for now they are leaving JVM out of the alliance.  It seems talks are still going on but JMM-INC are not positive.  RJD is rejecting 5 seats and trying to get more.  I am not sure if 5 seats make any sense for Left parties unless it also includes CPI(ML) which does have pockets of support as CPI and CPM really will not add much to a JMM-INC alliance.

Jhakhand has a tradition of splintered verdict, high turnover, and not voting in VIP candidates.  As a result it seems key leaders of all parties are going to contest two seats just to make sure they get in.  BJP CM Raghubar Das, JMM leader and former CM  Hemant Soren, JVM leader and former CM Babulal Marandi,  and AJSU leader and former DCM  Sudesh Mahto are all going to contest 2 seats.  This of course just make any alliance talks harder since that takes away seats to accommodate leaders within said party

[jaichind]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indiatoday.in/amp/elections/story/jharkhand-assembly-elections-to-start-on-nov-30-results-on-december-23-1614835-2019-11-01

Jharkhand assembly elections to be held in 5 phases starting November 30, results on December 23

[jaichind]

Hindustan Times analysis of Jharkhand.

It points out that in 2014 LS elections BJP running w/o AJSU won 56 assembly segments out of 81 but in the 2014 assembly elections later in the year only won 37 seats (5 for AJSU which was allied with BJP.)  Now in 2019 LS elections BJP won 57 assembly segments (I assume 4-5 more for AJSU which was allied with BJP)

CSDS post election analysis for Jharkhand shows BJP-AJSU swept the Upper Caste and OBC vote, split the Dalit vote with UPA alliance (INC-JMM-JVM-RJD) but was unexpectedly strong with Hindu tribals.  Christian tribals did lean UPA with Muslims of course going UPA.  The expectation is that  in an assembly election where the BJP is led by non-tribal Raghubar Das the NDA will bleed Hindu tribal votes and most likely Dalit votes as well as the Modi impact wears off.  So the issue would be by how much and could the UPA consolidate its vote from 2019 LS election given that JVM might run separately  

[jaichind]

Maharashtra BJP-SHS deadlock continues over power-sharing and rotation of CM.  SHS is already making noises that it could form a government with the support of INC-NCP while some sources within INC and NCP are making noises that they are becoming more open to supporting a SHS government.   The deadline for government formation is 11/7 before Governor rule could be considered.  I suspect the intensity of talks and maneuvers will increase as 11/7 approaches.

[xelas81]

Maharashtra BJP-SHS deadlock continues over power-sharing and rotation of CM.  SHS is already making noises that it could form a government with the support of INC-NCP while some sources within INC and NCP are making noises that they are becoming more open to supporting a SHS government.   The deadline for government formation is 11/7 before Governor rule could be considered.  I suspect the intensity of talks and maneuvers will increase as 11/7 approaches.

If SHS government backed by INC-NCP happens, would SHS be kicked out NDA and Modi ministry?

[jaichind]

Maharashtra BJP-SHS deadlock continues over power-sharing and rotation of CM.  SHS is already making noises that it could form a government with the support of INC-NCP while some sources within INC and NCP are making noises that they are becoming more open to supporting a SHS government.   The deadline for government formation is 11/7 before Governor rule could be considered.  I suspect the intensity of talks and maneuvers will increase as 11/7 approaches.

If SHS government backed by INC-NCP happens, would SHS be kicked out NDA and Modi ministry?

Most likely. Which is another reason why talks of a SHS government backed by INC-NCP would most likely a bluff tactic by SHS which INC-NCP is only happy to help.  This episode merely ensures that the next assembly election will it much more likely to find BJP and SHS running separately even after they find some compromise solution for government formation.

[jaichind]

Dec 5th would be the day of 15 Karnataka assembly by-elections with counting on Dec 9th.  The SC still has to rule if the INC and JD(S) rebels are able to run for BJP.    BJP will have to win 7 out of 15 to ensure a majority on its own.  If the BJP does run the INC/JD(S) rebels then the will be faced with their own rebels.  INC and JD(S) have broken up their alliance and will run separately.  There is also talk that even if the BJP does not win the numbers to form their own majority there are factions within JD(S)  that will either break off to join BJP OR JD(S) might just back BJP just to avoid a party split.  So while the new BJP government is not that popular due to flood relief distribution problems even if this mini-assembly election goes badly they will stay in power.  But to stay in power due to JD(S) support will merely trap BJP in the same problem the JD(S)-INC government situation after the 2018 assembly elections with "not enough candy to feed too many children" as JD(S) would demand its pound of flesh to back BJP.

[jaichind]

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/jvmp-breaks-off-pre-lok-sabha-alliance-to-go-into-jharkhand-assembly-polls-alone-2372349.html

"JVM(P) Breaks Off Pre-Lok Sabha Alliance, To Go Into Jharkhand Assembly Polls Alone"

JVM will contest alone in Jharkhand.  BJP Bihar ally LJP is also looking to break into Jharkhand and will be part of the BJP alliance.  So it will be JMM-INC-RJD-Left vs BJP-AJSU-LJP vs JVM.  There will still be a bunch tough seat sharing talks with RJD and Left for JMM-INC as well as AJSU and LJP for more seats but most likely this will be the configuration.  

JVM not being part of JMM-INC alliance most likely means a defeat of the BJP-AJSU-LJP alliance is now very unlikely but it is possible they might end up losing seat or winning a very narrow majority.

[jaichind]

In Jharkhand it seems that JMM-INC-RJD have finalized seat sharing talks which could be announced soon.  Left parties and NCP are not part of the alliance and JVM has already decided to contest alone.  Most likely the seat sharing break will be something like JMM 45 INC 29 RJD 7. 

On the ruling bloc side the BJP-AJSU alliance talks seems to be in real trouble and it is possible they might end up having a tactical alliance where they will have "friendly contests" in some seats.  BJP and AJSU are trapped the same way the BJP was in Haryana and Maharashtra where due to a belief that the BJP will sweep the polls, large number of local BJP leaders vie to gain tickets plus a large number of defectors from opposition parties.  That grew the list of possible candidates so high that there is no way all of them could be accommodated AND BJP-AJSU have a clean alliance with the result being a large number of BJP rebels in the fray.

In Jharkhand  these local leaders are quite powerful.  In the current Jharkhand  assembly around 70% of MLA have criminal backgrounds and half have series criminal records (murder, rape, attempted murder, attempted rape etc etc) which shows the large number of winning candidates with criminal/gang background.  Many of them have their own organizations which means they are capable of running rebel campaigns if the party they are aligned with do not give them a ticket.

[jaichind]

In Jharkhand JMM-INC-RJD announces seat sharing alliance

https://www.thequint.com/news/india/jharkhand-assembly-elections-alliance-congress-jmm-rjd-seat-share

Breakdown is JMM 43 INC 31 RJD 7 which is similar to my prediction of JMM 45 INC 29 RJD 7.

[jaichind]

Good map of change in state governments since 2019.  Of course Maharashtra is now up in the air.  



There is an error in the map though as in AP the BJP was the junior partner in the TDP-BJP government   during 2014-2018.  In 2018 TDP dumped BJP and was replaced by YSRCP in 2019 after AP assembly elections.

Another error is Nagaland where since 2008 BJP ally NPF was in charge and in 2018 switched to NPF splinter NDPP also backed by BJP.  So Nagaland should be labeled as BJP junior ally the entire time.

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra deadline continues as the Nov 9th deadline approaches.  SHS insists on rotation of CM post and BJP insist on not giving in.  SHS have already shifted all their MLAs to guarded hotels and taken away their smartphones.


INC has done the same by shifting their MLA to a 5 star resort in INC ruled Rajasthan to prevent BJP poaching.

The rumor is that the BJP is offering around $7 million for every MLA that can defect to back BJP.  $7 million is around $25 million in PPP terms and $140 million in USA if you adjust for local income.  Problem for BJP is that it only have 105 MLA out of 288 and even if you add in various small parties and rebels of all sorts that have pledged to back BJP that adds up to at most around 118-120 so they need another 30 MLAs or so.  So even if they can buy a few MLAs for $7 million each this is not a solution that scales.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ayodhya-case-supreme-court-to-pronounce-verdict-on-november-9/article29924621.ece

Looks like SC will rule on Ayodhya at 10:30AM Nov 9 which would be around midnight EST.  Hopefully this will be final word legally on this topic.  Indian law allows for deities to be a party to a court case so the infant Ram is the plaintiff in this case since the assertion is that Lord Ram was born on location under dispute in 5114 BC.   

[jaichind]

Historically in the 1970s and 1980s the Indian voter voted in state assembly elections as if they were LS elections.  Then in the 1990s and 2000s the Indian voter voted in LS elections as if they were state assembly elections (with the exception of 1999 where Vajpayee was able to pull in a greater BJP vote than each state politics situation would justify.)   In 2014 the LS and many state assembly political direction were the same so it was not clear.  After the 2019 LS landslide it was assumed that we are moving back to the 1970s and 1980s where people would vote in state assembly elections as if they were LS elections.  The result in Haryana and Maharashtra seems to indicate that perhaps we are moving to a model where the Indian voter votes differently in LS and state assembly elections.  The Jharkhand assembly elections would be a good test of this.

[jaichind]

Depending how the Ayodhya decision goes there might be riots by the Hindus or Muslims.  We will see.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Depending how the Ayodhya decision goes there might be riots by the Hindus or Muslims.  We will see.

Hopefully the courts rule in favor of the Mandir but either way police presence needs to be dramatically increased to stop rioting.


India needs to implement US style law and order policies . India is much more similar to the US than Europe yet their law and order policies is more leinant then even Europe

[jaichind]

SC judgement was that

1) The disputed land be awarded to the child Lord Ram and belongs neither to Muslim nor Hindu groups involved based on an archaeological report that the foundations of the structure has Hindu and not Muslim archaeological origins
2) Separate plot of land to be awarded to build a separate mosque
3) The 1992 act to destroy the mosque was illegal (as to discourage other similar acts in other disputed mosques)
4) Central government has to form a board to build a Ram Temple on the site

Most political parties support this decisions.  Muslims groups have different levels of disagreement but mostly accept the decision.  Hindu groups clearly celebrating.