2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

After the re-election of the INC-NCP state government in Maharashtra, the main issue in Maharashtra politics became the succession struggle in SHS given SHS founder and leader Bal Thackeray's age.  Bal Thackeray settled on Uddhav Thackeray as his successor leading to former SHS CM Narayan Rane leaving with his faction to join INC and Bal Thackeray's nephew Raj Thackeray to split from SHS and form the even more radically Maratha nativist and anti-Northern Indian NMS.  As a result in the 2009 LS elections in  Maharashtra a positive mood in urban areas for INC as well as NMS splitting the SHS vote led to a victory for INC-NCP which was mirrored in an UPA victory nationwide despite clear anti-incumbency at the state level against the INC-NCP state government.  


2009 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         48                25               40.18% (NCP RPI(A) RPI were part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0                 1.44%
NCP rebel                       1                  1.16%

BBM          39                  0                 1.33%

SP            10                  0                  1.00%

CPM           2                   0                 0.53%

BJP+         48                20               36.09% (SHS was part of BJP+)

SHS rebel                       0                  0.40%

NMS          11                  0                 4.07%

SWP            1                  1                 1.30%

BVA             1                  1                 0.60%

BSP           47                  0                 4.83%

RSPS         29                  0                 0.55%

STBP           4                  0                 0.51%



The 2009 Maharashtra assembly election help a few months after the LS election was a repeat election with NMS splitting the SHS vote and new INC CM Ashok Chavan able to consolidate the INC-NCP base to a somewhat larger victory in 2009 than the 2004 assembly election despite the usual INC and NCP rebellions.


2009 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         285              144             37.53% (NCP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         4                1.68%
NCP rebel                       11                3.85%

BVA              4                 2                0.46% (tactical alliance with INC+)

PWPI           17                4                 1.11%

RPI(A)         79                0                 0.85%

BBM+        104                2                 0.92%

SHS+         285              91              31.06% (BJP was part of SHS+)

SHS rebel                        3                 0.75%
BJP rebel                         4                 1.90%

NMS+         145             13                 5.84%

SWP+          15                1                 0.83%

BSP            281               0                 2.35%

JSS+           38                2                 1.32%

SP+             32                4                 0.78%

CPM            20                1                  0.60%

RSPS           26                1                  0.41%

LKSGM          2                 1                 0.13%

INC-blue; NCP-purple; BJP-orange; SHS-yellow
 

The anti-INC-NCP vote was splintered allowing the INC-NCP to return to power for the third term in a row.  

[jaichind]

The 2014 LS election took place being dominated by the Modi wave which consolidated OBC and Upper caste Hindus behind BJP.  Like Northern India UPA got swept by NDA.  The Modi wave also ate into the NMS base to swing back to BJP-SHS.  Modi also roped in local parties like RPI(A) RSPS and SWP into the BJP-SHS alliance which added to the NDA landslide.


2014 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         48                 6               35.01% (NCP BVA were part of INC+)

PWPI           3                 0                 1.03%

BBM          23                 0                 0.75%

CPM            4                 0                 0.38%

BJP+         48                42              51.75% (SHS SWP RSPS RPI(A) were part of BJP+)

NMS          10                 0                1.47%

BSP           48                 0                2.63%

AAP           48                 0                2.26%



After the BJP-SHS landslide which was mostly due to Modi, the BJP demanded to be made the senior partner of the SHS-BJP alliance at the state level or at least equal partners.  Fearing that doing this would allow the BJP to eat into its base SHS refused to allow this and at the last minute BJP and SHS split up and decided to contest separately.  NCP which blamed INC for the 2014 LS election defeat also broke off its alliance with INC seeing a chance to eat into the INC base.  Large number of local INC and NCP barons which otherwise might have run as INC and NCP rebels this time joined BJP or SHS to run. The result was a 4 way battle which BJP won a plurality but not a majority.


2014 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           287               42             17.95%

INC rebel                         1               0.33%

NCP+        282               42             17.48%

NCP rebel                        0               0.41%

BVA            36                3                0.62% (tactical alliance with NCP+)

PWPI          51                3                1.01%

AIMIM        24                 2               0.93%

BBM           70                 1               0.89%

BJP+        273              124             28.85% (RSPS and RPI(A) were part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                         3               0.92%

SWP           11                 0               0.66% (tactical alliance with BJP+)
 
JSS              8                 0               0.29% (tactical alliance with BJP+)

SHS+       285               63             19.52% (ABHS was part of SHS+)

SHS rebel                       1               0.36%

NMS         219                1               3.15%

CPM           20                1               0.39%

BSP          280                0               2.25%

INC-blue; NCP-purple; BJP-orange; SHS-yellow


BJP emerged as the largest party and after some moves to try to get NCP to support a BJP government SHS bucked down and accepted junior partner status and support a BJP MLA Devendra Fadnavis as a CM.  But for the SHS this seems to be a temporary compromise to wait it out until it can reassert itself as the senior partner in Maharashtra of the BJP-SHS alliance.

[jaichind]

After the 2014 Maharashtra assembly elections SHS continued to act as a frenemy of the BJP both in Maharashtra and at the federal level where SHS is on paper in the ruling bloc but continue to attack the BJP led government at both levels.  For a while it seems almost certain that SHS will contest by itself in the 2019 LS election just to teach the BJP a lesson and force it to accept SHS as the senior partner in the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections.  

In the end the Modi-Shah combine worked out a deal with SHS for the BJP to be the senior partner at the federal level for the 2019 LS elections but split seats evenly for the 2019  Maharashtra assembly elections.  SHS can see the Modi wave building in Maharashtra for the 2019 LS election and felt that there might be a risk that BJP will break SHS if SHS were to run separately as well as the risk of handing the election to the renewed INC-NCP alliance.   Narayan Rane of INC also left INC and formed MSP which became a BJP ally but then tried to form an alliance with NCP after SHS objected.  NCP did not accept MSP due to INC objections leaving MSP without any ally.  NMS actually did not run any candidates and choose to de facto back INC-NCP in an attempt to eventually eat into the anti-Modi vote since Modi as mostly ate up the core NMS vote.   In the end the BJP-SHS repeated the 2014 LS landslide partly because of the Dalit-Muslim VBA-AIMIM alliance cut into the INC Dalit-Muslim base.  INC-NCP benefited from getting SWP to defect to INC-NCP and also got PWPI to stand down to back INC-NCP but the Modi wave was just too strong to prevent a repeat of 2014.


2019 Maharashtra LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         48                 6               35.47% (NCP SWP BVA YSP were part of INC+)

VBA+         47                 1                7.72% (AIMIM was part of VBA+)

BJP+         48                41               51.35% (SHS was part of BJP+)

SHS rebel                       0                 0.60%
BJP rebel                        0                 0.25%

MSP           2                  0                 0.53%

BSP +      47                  0                 0.89% (SP was part of BSP+)

BJP-Light Orange;SHS-Dark Orange; INC-Light Blue; NCP-Dark Blue


The election led to polarization between BJP-SHS, INC-NCP and VBA-AIMIM and was a landslide victory for NDA just like the rest of Northern and Western India.

In the aftermath of 2019 LS elections large number of INC and especially NCP leaders started to defect en masse to BJP and in some cases SHS seeing almost no chance of INC-NCP to defeat BJP-SHS in the 2019  Maharashtra assembly elections a few month later.  The main problem here for BJP is that there is no way the BJP can accommodate all these INC and NCP defectors AND split seats evenly with SHS as per agreement before the 2019 LS elections.  Something will have to give.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/bjp-offered-shiv-sena-seats-maharashtra-assembly-polls-1598549-2019-09-12

In Maharashtra the BJP have offered SHS 106 seats which is a far cry from the 50/50 seat division that was agreed to before the 2019 LS elections.  50/50 division should be something like 235-240 each for BJP and SHS with the rest going to small party allies.  SHS have rejected this offer and demanded a 50/50 split.  With talks deadlocked

https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-maharashtra-assembly-polls-uddhav-thackeray-asks-party-workers-to-be-ready-to-go-solo-if-bjp-sena-alliance-fails-2789969

It seems SHS leader Uddhav Thackeray have asked SHS to get ready to contest alone.  I suspect this is a bluff.  If SHS accepts 106 or something like 110 seats from BJP then the result will be something like

BJP-SHS  55%
INC-NCP  30%

With INC-NCP getting to perhaps 38% of they can rope VBA-AIMIM into its alliance.

If it is 3 way battle I suspect it would be

BJP         40%
INC-NCP  28%
SHS        20%

With INC-NCP perhaps at 33% if they can rope in VBA-AIMIM into its alliance.  The idea here is if BJP and SHS ran separately both, but specially BJP, could continue to gather INC and NCP defectors and eat into their base.  The result would be a BJP plurality and possible majority.  Either way after that BJP will most likely break SHS which will not have a large number of MLAs to form a majority and SHS might become a much weaker force. 

There are factions within SHS that are advising on taking the BJP deal and wait out Modi and come back 5 years from now when hopefully Modi have retired or have become a less popular to recapture ground from BJP.  But ground once lost would be hard to regain.  SHS is in a tough spot.   

[jaichind]

22 Maharashtra MLAs have defected since the 2014 elections.  17 of them are from INC and NCP.  1 each from BJP and SHS with both defecting to INC.


It seems just as many opposition MLA went to SHS as BJP which does not fit the narrative.  But it is a fact that a lot more non-MLA local political barons (more NCP than INC) are going over to BJP.  Since there are a bit more than 100 opposition MLAs that means almost 20% of opposition MLAs elected in 2014 have since defected to BJP or SHS.  If these types of defections were to hit a cadre party like BJP or BSP the impact would be minor.  But for INC and especially NCP  in Maharashtra where the party is based on a confederation of local power brokers this is deadly.  NCP is especially vulnerable to this given that NCP is almost completely made up of rural local power barons while INC still have a diminishing cadre force and somewhat of a Dalit and Muslim base.

Speaking of Dalits and Muslims it seems that the VBA-AIMIM alliance has broken up and mostly both parties will run separately.  With INC-NCP finalizing their seat sharing agreement it seems an alliance of INC-NCP with VBA is unlikely.   INC-NCP will have to hope that the 2019 LS election landslide would provoke the anti-BJP Dalit vote that went to VBA swings over to INC-NCP.  In many ways the best case scenario for INC-NCP is for BJP-SHS to still have an alliance but in a way where a lot of INC or NCP rebels could not be accommodated leading some of them to come back and others to run separately as rebels.  While that still leads to BJP-SHS victory the INC-NCP base might remain somewhat intact to fight another day.

[jaichind]

Some news which took place in July.  The Patkura election finally took place.  BJD ran Prakash Agrawalla's widow against BJP Bijoy Mohapatra.  With the entire BJD machine being able to concentrate against Bijoy Mohapatra plus the sympathy factor BJD won: BJD 95,162 BJP 77,507 INC 2,090.

So once again Naveen Patnaik successful for the 4th assembly election in a row was able to prevent his old BJD rival  Bijoy Mohapatra from entering the assembly.  Just to repeat Bijoy Mohapatra was pretty much Biju Patnaik's #2 in the 1990-1995 period and was Naveen Patnaik's #2 in BJD during 1998-2000 before their falling out.

https://www.outlookindia.com/blog/story/india-news-naveen-patnaik-exposed-why-odisha-cm-fielded-an-82-year-old-icu-patie/4080

Is a very interesting story of political battle in Odisha between two rivals.  It involves Biju Patnaik who was the leader of JD in Odisha which was the main rival to INC in the 1970s to 1990s.
 

After Biju Patnaik passed away his son Naveen Patnaik split the JD and formed BJD and formed an alliance with BJP


A key Biju Patnaik lieutenant which helped Naveen Patnaik from BJD was Bijoy Mohapatra who as a result had great influence within BJD and worked with Naveen Patnaik win the LS elections in 1998 and 1999 with their alliance with BJP over INC.   Bijoy Mohapatra had been an MLA from Patkura since 1980 and had already won in 1980 1985 1990 and 1995.


By 2000 it was clear that BJD-BJP was poised to win the Odisha assembly election.  Bijoy Mohapatra was the head of the BJD political committee in charge of handing out tickets.  But on the day when the deadline Naveen Patnaik who decided that he did not want to share power with Bijoy Mohapatra expelled him from the party and invalided his BJD ticket.  It was too late for Bijoy Mohapatra to file as an independent Patkura.  Instead he backed a AITC candidate Trilochan Behera who was a tribal leader and shifted his local base over to him.  Trilochan Behera went on to win with Bijoy Mohapatra's support.  But  Naveen Patnaik had another card to play.  After the elections when BJD-BJP came to power with Naveen Patnaik as CM he was able to, using his resource as the CM, to get Trilochan Behera to defect over to BJD and removing a political proxy for Bijoy Mohapatra. 

The main goal for Naveen Patnaik  going forward is to deny Bijoy Mohapatra to get elected as a MLA since given the connections that Bijoy Mohapatra had with various BJD MLAs he could make a lot of trouble for  Naveen Patnaik.  Bijoy Mohapatra went on to form OGP and formed an alliance with INC in 2004 and was narrowly defeated in Patkura by the BJD with Naveen Patnaik  throwing in vast resources to the district to ensure his defeat.

For the 2009 assembly elections Bijoy Mohapatra had merged his OGP with NCP but with BJD-BJP alliance breaking up the NCP choose to form an alliance with BJD.  In anger Bijoy Mohapatra joined BJP and ran again in Patkura but was defeated given the negative sentiment against the BJP in Odisha.

For 2014 Bijoy Mohapatra switched over to Mahakalapada to run as the BJP candidate and was again defeated as while the BJP support rose it was still a BJD landslide year.

For 2019 Bijoy Mohapatra switched back to Patkura run for BJP.   Naveen Patnaik insisted on nominating the 82 year BJD incumbent  Bed Prakash Agrawalla who was gravely ill.  The Agrawalla family begged Naveen Patnaik to not insist on Bed Prakash Agrawalla and suggested that his wife or son run instead.  Naveen Patnaik refused which confused many.  Bed Prakash Agrawalla was so ill that it took lot of effort for him to even file his papers and it would be impossible for him to campaign. 

Naveen Patnaik's strategy became clear Bed Prakash Agrawalla passed away a few days ago.  Due to the death of the a candidate the election for Patkura was halted until the BJD can come up with another candidate and the election will be held months after the assembly election.  It is now clear that given the fact that the BJP is much stronger in 2019 than in 2014 that Naveen Patnaik did not feel confident that he can keep Bijoy Mohapatra from winning.  So with a ploy of a candidate on his deathbed followed by a death during the election he was able to stop Bijoy Mohapatra from getting into the Odisha assembly.  Naveen Patnaik's plan must be, win the 2019 assembly election, most likely narrowly, and then when the Patkura election takes place month later he can use the honeymoon period of his renewed mandate and all to resources of the state government to throw into the election to stop  Bijoy Mohapatra from winning.  What a ploy.  Genius.

[xelas81]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/bjp-offered-shiv-sena-seats-maharashtra-assembly-polls-1598549-2019-09-12

In Maharashtra the BJP have offered SHS 106 seats which is a far cry from the 50/50 seat division that was agreed to before the 2019 LS elections.  50/50 division should be something like 235-240 each for BJP and SHS with the rest going to small party allies.  SHS have rejected this offer and demanded a 50/50 split.  With talks deadlocked

https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-maharashtra-assembly-polls-uddhav-thackeray-asks-party-workers-to-be-ready-to-go-solo-if-bjp-sena-alliance-fails-2789969

It seems SHS leader Uddhav Thackeray have asked SHS to get ready to contest alone.  I suspect this is a bluff.  If SHS accepts 106 or something like 110 seats from BJP then the result will be something like

BJP-SHS  55%
INC-NCP  30%

With INC-NCP getting to perhaps 38% of they can rope VBA-AIMIM into its alliance.

If it is 3 way battle I suspect it would be

BJP         40%
INC-NCP  28%
SHS        20%

With INC-NCP perhaps at 33% if they can rope in VBA-AIMIM into its alliance.  The idea here is if BJP and SHS ran separately both, but specially BJP, could continue to gather INC and NCP defectors and eat into their base.  The result would be a BJP plurality and possible majority.  Either way after that BJP will most likely break SHS which will not have a large number of MLAs to form a majority and SHS might become a much weaker force. 

There are factions within SHS that are advising on taking the BJP deal and wait out Modi and come back 5 years from now when hopefully Modi have retired or have become a less popular to recapture ground from BJP.  But ground once lost would be hard to regain.  SHS is in a tough spot.   

What will NMS do?
Will they try to work out a tactical alliance with INC-NCP or go alone?

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/bjp-offered-shiv-sena-seats-maharashtra-assembly-polls-1598549-2019-09-12

In Maharashtra the BJP have offered SHS 106 seats which is a far cry from the 50/50 seat division that was agreed to before the 2019 LS elections.  50/50 division should be something like 235-240 each for BJP and SHS with the rest going to small party allies.  SHS have rejected this offer and demanded a 50/50 split.  With talks deadlocked

https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-maharashtra-assembly-polls-uddhav-thackeray-asks-party-workers-to-be-ready-to-go-solo-if-bjp-sena-alliance-fails-2789969

It seems SHS leader Uddhav Thackeray have asked SHS to get ready to contest alone.  I suspect this is a bluff.  If SHS accepts 106 or something like 110 seats from BJP then the result will be something like

BJP-SHS  55%
INC-NCP  30%

With INC-NCP getting to perhaps 38% of they can rope VBA-AIMIM into its alliance.

If it is 3 way battle I suspect it would be

BJP         40%
INC-NCP  28%
SHS        20%

With INC-NCP perhaps at 33% if they can rope in VBA-AIMIM into its alliance.  The idea here is if BJP and SHS ran separately both, but specially BJP, could continue to gather INC and NCP defectors and eat into their base.  The result would be a BJP plurality and possible majority.  Either way after that BJP will most likely break SHS which will not have a large number of MLAs to form a majority and SHS might become a much weaker force. 

There are factions within SHS that are advising on taking the BJP deal and wait out Modi and come back 5 years from now when hopefully Modi have retired or have become a less popular to recapture ground from BJP.  But ground once lost would be hard to regain.  SHS is in a tough spot.   

What will NMS do?
Will they try to work out a tactical alliance with INC-NCP or go alone?

Good question.  I was going to write about that.

https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/mumbai/other/mns-may-not-contest-assembly-polls/articleshow/71119396.cms

It seems NMS might not contest at all and de facto support INC-NCP.  It seems NMS leader Raj Thackeray is being investigated for money laundering.  Back in the 2019 LS elections  even though NMS was not running and NMS was only de facto backing INC-NCP a candidate at a time, Raj Thackeray ended up being the most effective anti-Modi speaker.  Sort of gives a sense of the lack of vision on the INC-NCP side.  Now he might not be that active in the 2019 assembly election.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/congress-ncp-seal-deal-will-fight-125-seats-each-in-maharashtra-polls/articleshow/71159207.cms

INC-NCP come to agreement on seat sharing in Maharashtra dividing up the seats 125 125 out of 288.  That will leave 38 seats for various allies BVA SWP and even perhaps PWPI.  It seems INC roped in SP to join the INC-NCP alliance with an offer of 4 seats for SP.

 

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/country-should-come-together-to-promote-hindi-says-amit-shah/article29415438.ece

In keeping with my narrative of BJP becoming the Indo-Aryan (Greater Hindi) Hindu party, Amit Shah came out with "One country, One language" idea where he promotes Hindi as the common language of India.  Note Amit Shah is Gujarati.

The article has a chart on Indian languages.  Of course Urdu is really just Hindi written with the Persian script.  Gujarati, Marathi, and Bengali are part of the same Indo-Aryan language group and speakers of those languages would often speak Hindi themselves. 


Of course the people that are freaking out about this are those from Dravidian language states.  But the NDA swept the Indo-Aryan regions in 2019 elections and could very well not care to push this line since by winning the majority all the Indo-Aryan Hindu votes will give BJP a majority on its own.

[jaichind]

On top of the Amit Shah One Nation One Language idea we have

"Amit Shah raises questions over efficacy of multi-party democracy"
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/amit-shah-raises-questions-over-efficacy-of-multi-party-democracy/articleshow/71165762.cms

which is really about pushing for a powerful central state to push for rapid development as part of nation building 

As I talked about before the BJP vision is really using the Kaiser Germany and PRC nation building model.

As for this election being a national election or not really comes down the to if the BJP can get national acceptance on its national building vision versus that of the INC.

The INC vision of nation building us based on the USA model of unifying a nation around a set of rationalist principles that can superseded individual community identities that will continue to exist along side the rationalist consensus.   

The BJP vision of nation building uses Bismarck Germany and modern China as the model which centers around a common historical narrative that focus on a fusion of related and but disparate identities into one super-arching nationalist narrative.  A post-caste India where caste identities can be subsumed into a Hindu Indo-Aryan identity would be the BJP vision of building a functional superpower that can rival USA and PRC.

So in many ways if the BJP can get the Hindu Indo-Aryan population to think in the way they want them to think then the BJP is headed for a landslide victory that would serve the basis of a long term BJP domination of Indian politics and direction of the nation as a whole.   

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/national-politics/bjp-membership-crosses-a-whopping-17-crore-mark-761887.html

It seems BJP's membership is now past 170 million making it easily the largest political party in the world.  PRC's CCP is only around 90 million although the CCP has a fairly stick policy on who to take into the CCP while it is fairly easy to join the BJP requiring a registration fee which is around 7 cents USD.   

[jaichind]

https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/assembly-elections-2019-amit-shah-spells-out-bjp-poll-plank-with-poser-to-rahul-gandhi/1709952/

Pretty clear that the BJP will run on the revocation of Article 370 for J&K as its key poll plank forcing INC from being even further away from its traditional role of the party of Indian nationalism which will push up BJP turnout  or forcing the INC to agree that the BJP acted correctly and depressing INC turnout.

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra there were talks that BJP offered SHS only 106 seats even though the pre-LS election agreement was a 50/50 split of 130 each and the remaining 18 for allies.  It seems that the BJP have adjusted the offer to something like 117 perhaps 120 max but rejects out of hand SHS's position of a CM rotaiton scheme between BJP and SHS.     

SHS is dialing up the role it had before the LS elections where it was the de facto opposition to BJP within the NDA looking to put pressure on BJP.  Not sure this will work. BJP seems determined to put SHS in its place and there are strong factions within BJP and SHS to go it alone.  Again, SHS face total destruction if it ties to go it alone and have a poor election performance.  It might come down to a SHS view on if the BJP strength a temporary spoke or a sign of thinks to come.  If the former then compromise and wait for the Modi wave to recede.  If the latter you might need to fight them now before they get even stronger by eating up more of the SHS base.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/six-rajasthan-bsp-mlas-join-congress/article29437906.ece

"In a setback to BSP, all six MLAs join Congress in Rajasthan"

This is deja vu.  After the 2008 Rajasthan assembly elections INC emerged as the largest party but without a majority and was able to form a government with support of various INC and BJP rebels as well as BSP.  After a few months to ensure that the INC government had a stable majority the INC lured all 6 BSP MLA to defect to INC.

Now after the 2018  Rajasthan assembly elections where the INC emerged very close to majority on its own but one short, it formed the government with the support of various   INC and BJP rebels as well as BSP.   And now after a few month to get a stable majority INC lures all 6 (it is even the same number) BSP MLAs to defect to INC.   

[jaichind]

Another state that will hold assembly elections Oct is Haryana


Haryana was formed in 1966 as it was split out of Punjab to create a Sikh/Punjabi majority state of Punjab and a Hindu/Hindi majority state of Haryana even as both states share the state capital of Chandigarh which is also a federal territory.


Proto-BJP BJS was strong with the Hindu vote in Punjab since the 1950s so the main opposition to INC in what became Haryana was BJS although INC splinters like VHP in the 1960s and INC(O) in the 1970s soon took over as the main alternative to INC even as INC dominated the state.

The key attribute of Haryana politics are the domination of Haryana by the land owning Jats who make up 27% of the population and non-Jat coalitions to try to contain Jat power.  Haryana politics from the 1960s to 2005 are dominated by the "3 Lals"

Bansi Lal (who is a Jat)


Devi Lal (who is also a Jat)


And Bhajan Lal (who is a non-Jat)

 
The "3 Lals"


All 3 and their children dominated Haryana politics since the late 1960s.  All had been in the INC, all have broke off to form INC splinters that worked with the BJP.  All became CM at some point in their career.  Even after 2005 their most through their children were still significant and were only mostly driven to a marginal role by the 2019 BJP LS landslide.    

Bansi Lal who was a Jat leader and key to the creation of Haryana was the INC CM after first ever Haryana assembly in 1968 until 1975 and only left to become the Defense minister at the federal level.  He oversaw INC domination of Haryana during this period.

Bansi Lal's main rival during this period was Devi Lal  who was also a key Jat leader in the INC.  Devi Lal was Bansi Lal's main rival within the INC and when INC split in 1971 Devi Lal took the chance to jump to an anti-Indira Gandhi position and left INC since it was clear that Indira Gandhi was backing Bansi Lal.  In 1974  Devi Lal formed the Haryana branch of the UP Jat based BLD.  

The 1975-1977 emergency was a critical period where all the anti-INC forces (INC(O) BJS BLD and the various Socialist parties) converged to form JNP to take on INC in the 1977 LS elections.  Given Devi Lal stature as a Jat leader he became the leader of the JNP in Haryana.  The 1977 LS elections broke INC hold in Haryana in decisive fashion in a landslide defeat of INC due to clear excesses of the 1975-1977 emergency as well as the consolidation of all anti-INC forces which was replicated across most of Northen India


1977 Haryana LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         10                 0               22.60% (VHP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        0                3.80%

CPI             2                 0                 0.61%

JNP           10               10               70.35%

After the JNP government was installed it called new assembly elections in Haryana citing the loss of popular support for INC.   After the JNP landslide victory a key upcoming INC superstar and key non-Jat leader Bhajan Lal decides to jump ship and join JNP.   The INC was crushed again but the scale of JNP victory was significantly lower in terms of vote share as INC and JNP rebels of all types actually ate into the 1977 LS JNP vote and the JNP seat landslide was only made possible by old INC splinter VHP running separately versus an alliance with INC.    

1977 Haryana assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         89                 5               19.77%

INC rebel                        1                8.93%

VHP          31                  5                5.96%

JNP           90                75              46.70%

JNP rebel                        4                8.97%

CPI           14                  0                0.77%

CPM           4                   0                0.61%

Devi Lal was made the JNP CM with Bhajan Lal as a key lieutenant to ensure non-Jat support for the new JNP state government.  

[jaichind]

After JNP came into power in Haryana in 1977 saw greater tension in the JNP at the national level which in June 1979 led to the vertical split of JNP where jNP(S) split from JNP which led to the 1980 LS elections.  Since at the national level Jat leader Charan Singh of UP became the leader of JNP(S) in Haryana JNP CM Devi Lal shifted to JNP(S).  But at this stage his key lieutenant Bhajan Lal struck and got a majority of the JNP MLA to stay with JNP and not go to JNP(S) with Devi Lal.  As a result Bhajan Lal was able to become JNP CM with Devi Lal becoming the leader of the JNP(S) opposition.   As a result 1980 LS elections in Haryana saw the first of many "Battle of 3 Lals" where it became Bansi Lal led INC vs Bhajan Lal led JNP vs Devi Lal led JNP(S).  The result was a near tie between INC and JNP(S).


1980 Haryana LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                 5                32.55%

JNP(S)       10                 4                33.52%

JNP           10                 1                28.14%

Devi Lal actually led the JNP(S) campaign as a MP candidate and was able to fight INC to a draw and pushing JNP to third place.  In the rest of Northern India the JNP-JNP(S) split led to an INC landslide and an INC government led by Indira Gandhi was installed at the federal level.  Soon after the 1980 LS elections the old BJS faction of JNP split to form BJP.

After being driven into 3rd place and seeing the writing on the wall and to protect his position as CM, Bhajan Lal defected with almost the entire JNP MLA delegation to INC and became INC CM right after the LS election.  In much of Northern India INC dismissed the various JNP state governments in 1980 for early assembly elections which did not take place in Harayna since the JNP CM defected to INC on his own.

For 1982 Haryana assembly elections Devi Lal returned to lead JNP(S), now called LKD, to take on Bhajan Lal led INC while Bansi Lal stayed in federal politics as a MP.  Devi Lal formed an alliance with BJP to take on INC and fought INC to a draw in an election with large number of INC rebels (many from the Bansi Lal faction that did not accept Bhajan Lal  leadership) and LKD rebels that did not accept the alliance with BJP.


1982 Haryana assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           90                36               37.58%

INC rebels                       8                6.51%

LKD+        90                37               32.21% (BJP was part of LKD+)

LKD rebels                      8                 9.53%

JNP+        60                  1                 3.41%

CPI+        21                  0                 1.38% (CPM was part of CPI+)


Despite the fact that LKD-BJP won 1 more seat that INC, Bhajan Lal outmaneuvered Devi Lal one again and was the first to rope in enough INC and LKD rebels back his government and was re-elected as CM of Haryana.

[jaichind]

After Bhajan Lal led the INC to re-election in 1982 anti-incumbency began to build up.  INC fortunes were revived by the assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984 which in turn created a pro-INC sympathy wave in the 1984 LS elections.  This time around LKD and BJP failed to form an alliance adding to the INC landslide.


1984 Haryana LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                10                54.95%

LKD+        10                  0                29.60% (INC(J) was a part of LKD+)

LKD rebel                        0                 0.65%

BJP             6                  0                 7.54%

JNP             7                  0                 1.44%

CPI             1                  0                 0.88%


After the 1984 LS INC landslide it was clear that the anti-incumbency wave against the INC in Haryana continued and in a bid to revive INC fortunes Bhajan Lal was moved to the federal politics while Bansi Lal was brought back to be CM of Haryana hoping he can shore up Jat support for INC.  This was to no avail for the 1987 assembly election where Devi Lal's LKD formed a tactical alliance with BJP while bringing on CPI-CPM as allies and crushed Bansi Lal's INC in a landslide victory.  Once again INC saw large number of rebels while LKD saw its share of rebels that did not approval of its alliance with BJP


1987 Haryana assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           90                  5               29.18%

INC rebel                        1                 6.11%

LKD+        79                63               40.48% (CPI CPM were part of LKD+)

LKD rebel                       4                  4.18%

BJP+        21                 17              10.69% (tactical alliance with LKD+)

LKD(A)+   69                  0                 2.20% (JNP was part of LKD(A))


Devi Lal returned to power in a landslide as CM leading a LKD-BJP government despite LKD splinter LKD(A) in the fray.  The 1987 Harayna assembly election heralded the decline of Rajiv Gandhi and INC electoral fortunes across Northern India.

[jaichind]

Soon after 1987 Haryana assembly election all non-BJP non-CPI/CPM opposition forces (JNP, LKD LKD(A) and JM) merged into JD to take on INC in the 1989 LS elections.  The 1987 Haryana assembly election became a model on how JD, the Left, and BJP can cooperate against INC where JD ran with an alliance with the Left and formed tactical alliances with BJP where BJP will back JD but not Left candidates and vice versa.  If was using such methods that INC was defeated in the 1989 LS elections.  In Haryana itself there were already anti-incumbency building up against the LKD/JD state government led by Devi Lal especially there were internal turmoil in JD as Devi Lal tries to promote his own son Om Prakash Chautala to become CM while he makes a shift to national politics.  As a result INC was able to fight JD to a near draw in Haryana in 1989 LS while INC was soundly defeated in the rest of Northern India.


1989 Haryana LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                 4                46.15%

JD+          10                 6                 47.21% (BJP was part of JD+)

JD rebel                         0                 0.48%

JNP            5                  0                 0.67% (rump JNP)


After the JD victory in the 1989 LS elections  Devi Lal tried to make a bid to become the leader of JD and PM of India.   In the end he endorsed VP Singh over Chandra Shekhar and was able to secure for himself a DPM role under VP Singh.   To replace his role as CM of Harayna Devi Lal pushed his son Om Prakash Chautala into that role even role Om Prakash Chautala was not an MLA and not eligible.  He eventually ran for a seat and won but there were widespread accusations of rigging in that by-election.  As a result Om Prakash Chautala had to step down twice during his role as CM and created significant chaos within JD. 

Nationally the JD also began to breakup in 1991 and Chandra Shekhar led a JD(S) splinter which led to the fall of the JD government and eventually to the 1991 LS elections  In Haryana the split of JD and the chaos of  Om Prakash Chautala's rule also led to a mid-term assembly elections to be held as the same time.  Devi Lal  and his son Om Prakash Chautala joined up with Chandra Shekhar's JD(S). With INC looking certain to win the 1991 elections in Haryana INC brought back Bhajan Lal to lead the INC effort in 1991 hoping to cash in the anti-Jat vote.   Bansi Lal who wanted to lead INC himself as a result split from INC to form HVP and formed an alliance with JD.  So once again we have the "battle of the 3 Lals" with Bhajan Lal led INC vs Devi Lal/Om Prakash Chautala led JD(S) vs Bansi Lal led HVP-JD although in the LS race JD was the senior partner of the HVP-JD alliance.

The result for both the LS and assembly election was the victory of INC led by Bhajan Lal in a splintered field.  The elections in Haryana were held BEFORE the assassination of INC leader Rajiv Gandhi or else the INC would have a massive sweep given the sympathy factor.


1991 Haryana LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                  9                37.22%

JD(S)        10                  0                25.41%

JD+          10                  1                17.32% (HVP was part of JD)

SJJP           1                   0                 1.13%

BJP           10                  0               10.17%

BSP            1                  0                 1.79%


1991 Haryana assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           90                51               33.73%

INC rebel                        2                 2.56%

JD(S)+      89                16               22.12%

JD(S) rebel                     1                 3.74%

HVP+        90                15               17.75% (JD CPM CPI were part of HVP+)

BJP           89                  2                9.43%

BJP rebel                        0                 0.52%

BSP          26                  1                 2.32%


The INC won only because of the 3 way split of the INC vote.  The INC rebel factor is a lot lower since the Bansi Lal faction left INC to run as HVP.  Dalits make up 20% the population and tend to be hostile to Jats given that Jats are landowners and Dalits and farm labors but tend to vote INC especially if INC projects a non-Jat leader.  The rise of the Dalit based BSP also eats into the INC base.  All these are signs of trouble for INC for the future despite their victory in the 1991 LS and assembly elections for Haryana.

[jaichind]

The return of INC at both the federal and state level in 1996 led to growing anti-incumbency in Haryana against the Bhajan Lal led INC government.  As a result when LS and assembly elections came around in 1996 which was held at the same time the INC was clearly in trouble.  What made it worse for the INC is that in the meantime HVP formed an alliance with BJP seeing that a JD without Devi Lal was dead weight as well the growth of INC rebels and INC splinters like JHM and AIIC(T).    Devi Lal/Om Prakash Chautala also saw JD(S) which became SJP as dead weight and created their own local INLD splitting from SJP.

So once again we have the "battle of 3 Lals" with Bhajan Lal led INC vs Devi Lal/Om Prakash Chautala INLD vs Bansi Lal led HVP-BJP.  The 1996 LS and assembly election saw the victory of HVP-BJP even though at the LS level the BJP was the senior party as per convention of a national party allied with a local regional party.


1996 Haryana LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                  2                22.64%

INC rebel                        1                  3.04%

AIIT(T)       8                  0                  2.25%

INLD         10                 0                 19.01%

BJP+         10                 7                 34.93% (HVP was part of BJP+)

BSP            6                 0                   6.59%

JD              8                 0                   1.54%

SP              3                 0                   1.13%
 
CPI+          2                 0                   1.10% (CPM was part of CPI+)


1996 Haryana assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           90                 9               20.82%

INC rebel                       6                 4.64%

JHM          18                 0                 0.41%

AIIC(T)     62                 3                 3.20%

INLD+      90               25               21.21%

INLD rebel                    2                 1.62%

HVP+       90               44               31.54% (BJP was part of HVP+)

HVP rebel                     0                 0.80%
BJP rebel                      1                 0.57%

JM          18                 0                 0.41% (BJP splinter)

BSP        67                 0                 5.44%

JD          47                 0                 0.84%

SP          26                 0                 0.91%


Bhajan Lal's attempt to consolidate the non-Jat vote against the two Jat parties of INLD and HVP failed as BJP was able to deliver the non-Jat vote to HVP.  HVP-BJP won over a splintered field and Bansi Lal returned to become CM at the head of a HVP-BJP government by roping in some INC and INLD rebels to support the new government.

[jaichind]

The BJP attempted to form the government as the federal level after the 1996 LS elections but was defeated by a joint INC-JD effort.  JD then formed a minority government with outside support by INC.  This did not last long and the 1998 LS elections were called.  INC was looking like it would melt down but Sonia Gandhi joining politics revived INC fortunes.  INLD roped in BSP into an unlikely Jat-Dalit alliance and as a result BJP-HVP was pushed into third place in Haryana in terms of seats in another "battle of 3 Lals" with Bhajan Lal led INC vs Devi Lal/Om Prakash Chautala led INLD-BSP (at this stage Devi Lal has mostly retired so it is really Om Prakash Chautala but he is the successor of the Devi Lal so he counts as a Lal as well) vs Bansi Lal led BJP-HVP.


1998 Haryana LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                  3                26.02%

INC rebel                        0                  1.91%

SJP             5                  0                 5.33% (de facto INC splinter)

INLD+       10                  5               33.58% (BSP was part of INLD+)

BJP+         10                  2               30.49% (HVP was part of BJP+)


The BJP won the 1998 LS election overall and formed the government  with TDP support.  In Haryana HVP-BJP suffered a setback partly due to growing anti-incumbency.  This led to tension between the HVP and BJP alliance partners.  In early 1999 BJP, sensing Bansi Lal might be looking for ways to merge HVP back to INC withdrew support from Bansi Lal's HVP government.  The HVP government survived due to INC support.  But in mid 1999 Bansi Lal's HVP suffered a vertical split where HVP(D) was formed and defected to a INLD-BJP alliance and after merging with INLD produced a INLD-BJP government led by INLD leader Om Prakash Chautala who once again became CM.  

In the meantime the BJP government at the federal level fell due to AIADMK withdrawing support and produced the 1999 LS elections.  Attempts by Bansi Lal's rump HVP to form an alliance with INC failed due to objections from Bhajan Lal so HVP formed an alliance with BSP.  It was another "battle of 3 Lals" with  Bhajan Lal led INC vs Om Prakash Chautala (successor of Levi Lal) led INLD-BJP vs Bansi Lal led HVP-BSP.  The result was a BJP-INLD landslide sweep due to the split of INC and HVP vote as well as the Vajpayee wave of 1999.


1999 Haryana LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                  0                34.93%

INLD+       10                10                57.93% (BJP was part of INLD+)

HVP+        10                 0                  5.05% (BSP was part of HVP)

INLD-BJP was able to consolidate both the Jat and non-Jat vote as Dalits defected in mass to vote for INLD-BJP leaving HVP+ in single digit vote share.  INDL-BJP took advantage of this landslide to call an early 2000 Haryana assembly election.  HVP and BSP broke their alliance due to their poor performance in 1999 LS election.  It was another "battle of 3 Lals" with   Bhajan Lal led INC vs Om Prakash Chautala (successor of Levi Lal) led INLD-BJP vs Bansi Lal led HVP.  INLD-BJP won again but with a narrower margin than 1999 due to the Dalit vote flowing back to BSP now that HVP-BSP alliance has broken.   A large number of INLD and BJP rebels did not help but INC was also hit with a large number of rebels.


2000 Haryana assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           90                21               31.22%

INC rebel                        5                 5.81%

NCP          24                  1                 0.51%

RPI             5                  1                 0.62%

INLD+      90                 53              38.50% (BJP was part of INLD+)

INLD rebel                      5                 3.99%
BJP rebel                        1                 1.02%

HVP          82                  2                 5.55%

HVP rebel                       0                1.65%

BSP          83                  1                 5.74%



Om Prakash Chautala was re-elected as CM with the INLD-BJP victory.  HVP now more and more looks like a spent force as politics begins to be polarized between INLD-BJP vs INC.

[jaichind]

After the INLD-BJP government was re-elected in 2000 the next key event was the death of Devi Lal in 2001.  This triggered a set of steps where the BJP sought to expand its base in Haryana at the expense of INLD now that its founding patriarch has passed on.  This led a rupture of the INLD-BJP alliance in early 2004 right before the 2004 LS elections.  INLD had a majority on its own so Om Prakash Chautala  continued as CM at the head of the INLD government but INLD and BJP ran separately in the 2004 LS election.   2004 was really the last  "battle of 3 Lals" election where it was Bhajan Lal led INC vs Om Prakash Chautala (successor of the Devi Lal clan) led INLD vs Bansi Lal led HVP.  Although this "battle of 3 Lals" is a shadow of the previous such battles with Bansi Lal's HVP in terminal decline and the BJP a much stronger force.  The INC led by Bhajan Lal won a landslide victory on the split of the anti-INC vote as well as anti-incumbency against the INLD government.  


2004 Haryana LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                  9                42.13%

INLD         10                  0                22.43%

BJP           10                  1                17.21%

ES              3                  0                 1.57% (BJP splinter)

HVP            9                  0                 6.25%

BSP          10                  0                 4.98%

SP            10                  0                 1.69%


At the federal level INC won a surprising victory over BJP and formed an UPA government at the federal level.  This election defeat convinced  Bansi Lal to fold up HVP and merge HVP back to INC.   Bansi Lal pretty much retired after doing so but did so to ensure that his children will have a place in the INC to have a viable political career within the INC.   In the 2005 Haryana assembly election the INC, as expected, returned to power with the INLD and BJP split.   The scale of the INC victory was muted by large scale INC rebellion given the internal struggled within the INC between Bhajan Lal and INC Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda


2005 Haryana assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           90                67               42.46%

INC rebel                        9                 8.74%

NCP          14                  1                 0.68%

INLD         89                  9               26.77%

INLD rebel                      1                 1.99%

BJP           90                  2               10.36%

ES            36                  0                 1.37% (BJP splinter)

BSP          84                  1                 3.22%

SP            21                  0                 0.46%


The INC won in a landslide.  In a surprise INC high command went with INC Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda over old INC non-Jat warhorse Bhajan Lal to be CM.  Bhajan Lal was pacified by having his son Chander Mohan installed as DCM but the Bhajan Lal-Bhupinder Singh Hooda rivalry within the INC and is symbolic of the Jat vs non-Jat struggles within the new INC government.  

[jaichind]

After the INC return to power in Haryana in 2005, Bansi Lal passed away in 2006 but his children continued his legacy within the INC as a significant clan.  The simmering conflict between Jat leader and INC CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda and non-Jat leader Bhajan Lal finally broke out into the open in 2007 with Bhajan Lal leaving INC to form HJC.  Bhajan Lal's son and DCM Chander Mohan first did not follow his father into HJC but stayed in INC.  But then in a set of bizarre moves disappeared and then emerged married to his Muslim mistress and announced that he converted to Islam.  INC removed him as DCM and soon after that he divorced his new wife and converted back to Hinduism and joined his father in HJC.  The 2009 LS elections that followed say Om Prakash Chautala's INLD renew their alliance with BJP to take on the revived INC.   Given Bhajan Lal's age and the bizarre antics of his son Chander Mohan he had his second son Kuldeep Bishnoi lead the HJC's efforts.  The result was another INC landslide led by Bhupinder Singh Hooda.


2009 Haryana LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                  9                41.77%

HJC           10                  1                10.01%

INLD+       10                  0                27.86% (BJP was part of INLD+)

BSP           10                  0                15.74%

INLD-BJP were soundly defeated despite HJC splitting the INC vote because the Dalit vote which sometimes goes BJP in previous given their hostility to Jats and that BJP tend to appeal to non-Jats went to BSP en masse this time.  The Dalit vote seems to be turned of by INLD attempt to explcitly appeal to Jats hoping to claw them from Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda.  This INLD move has backfired leading to a landslide defeat.

Encouraged by the 2009 LS election success where INC returned to power at the federal level Bhupinder Singh Hooda decided to go for early assembly elections later in 2009.  The result was an unexpectedly limited INC victory ironically because INLD and BJP have gone their separate ways and allowed for INLD to compete for Jat votes and BJP to compete for non-Jat votes even as there were abundant INC INLD and BJP rebels.


2009 Haryana assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           90                40               35.08%

INC rebel                        4                3.65%

HJC           87                 6                7.40%

INLD+       90               32              26.77% (SAD was part of INLD+)

INLD rebel                     2                3.54%

BJP           90                 4                9.04%

BJP rebel                       1                1.81%

BSP          86                 1                6.73%



Blue - INC
Green - INLD

Bhupinder Singh Hooda's INC failed to win a majority but break breaking HJC by getting most of HJC's MLA to defect to INC plus gaining some INC and INLD rebels  Bhupinder Singh Hooda was able to form a government and re-elected as CM.

[jaichind]

After the INC victories in the 2009 Haryana  LS and 2009 Haryana  assembly elections the INC fortunes in Haryana began to fall as anti-incumbency built up.  Some of this decline was not visible given problems in the opposition bloc.  Bhajan Lal passed away in 2011 leaving his son Kuldeep Bishnoi in charge of a weakened HJC.  In 2012-2013 former INLD CM Om Prakash Chautala was charged with corruption from his tenure as CM and was convicted in 2013 leading him and his son Ajay Singh Chautala to be jailed.  That left Om Prakash Chautala's second son Abhay Singh Chautala de facto in charge of a weakened INLD.  

As the 2014 LS election approached it was clear that the Modi wave was going to carry BJP to a strong performance.  Hoping to catch the Modi wave HJC's  Kuldeep Bishnoi  formed an alliance with BJP where it was understood that BJP will the the senior partner in the 2014 LS election and that for the 2014 Hayana assembly elections later in the year BJP and HJC will be equal partners.  Is was expected that INLD would collapse given that Om Prakash Chautala is in jail.    The result was a BJP-HJC victory but INLD doing fairly well and INC driven to third place.


2014 Haryana LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                  1                22.99%

INLD         10                  2                24.43%

BJP+         10                  7                40.98% (HJC was part of BJP+)

BSP          10                  0                  4.60%

AAP          10                  0                  4.26%


The BJP-HJC won a decisive victory even though HJC performed poorly in its seats. AAP leader and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal is from Haryana and it was expected that the AAP would perform well.  In the end AAP did poorly and the Jat vote which was suppose to consolidate around INC CM  Bhupinder Singh Hooda instead split their vote between INC and INLD saving INLD from a complete meltdown.    As a result of the poor HJC performance, BJP snapped ties with HJC and choose to go it alone in the 2014 Haryana assembly elections.  The hope for the opposition was that the Modi wave would recede in the 2014 assembly elections but it was enough to carry BJP to a narrow majority despite a decline of vote share from 2014 LS elections.


2014 Haryana assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           90                15               20.67%

INC rebel                        4                 4.66%

HJC+        88                  2                 4.23% (HJCP was part of HJC+)

INLD+      90                 20              24.84% (SAD is part of INLD+)

INLD rebel                      1                 1.07%

HLP         75                   0                 1.21% (INLD splinter)

BJP          90                 47               33.34%

BSP         87                  1                  4.39%

Map of results followed  by defections since


A BJP government was installed with Manohar Lal Khattar, a non-Jat, as CM.  The BJP plan is clearly to consolidate the non-Jat vote around BJP and have INC under Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda  and INLD to split the Jat vote.  In the aftermath of the 2014 assembly elections Kuldeep Bishnoi led his HJC to merged back into INC which is able to reunited the party in Haryana.  The BJP government clearly acted in a way that sought to undercut Jat domination of Haryana politics and economics.   The INLD situation went from bad to worse.  The son of jailed Ajay Singh Chautala, Dushyant Chautala, led a rebellion against his uncle and de facto INLD leader Abhay Singh Chautala.  As a result he formed JJP in 2018.  BSP which had formed an alliance with INLD backed out of the alliance given the split and instead allied with BJP Jat splinter LSP.  JJP ended up forming an alliance with AAP and there were some attempts for JJP-AAPto ally with INC for the 2019 LS elections but it went nowhere.  The INC tried to make a pitch for the non-Jat vote but mostly failed.  The 2019 LS election saw a massive BJP landslide based on the Modi wave and the split of the anti-BJP parties.  The BJP captured the entire non-Jat vote while most Jats voted INC which in turn destroyed INLD and JJP.


2019 Haryana LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           10                  0                28.52%

INLD         10                  0                 1.90%

JJP+         10                   0                 5.27% (AAP was part of JJP+)

BJP           10                 10               58.21%

BSP+        10                  0                 4.09% (LSP was part of BSP+)

Assembly segment results


After the BJP landslide the outlook for the 2019 Haryana assembly look dim for the opposition.  BSP first formed an alliance with JJP but that got called off so once again the opposition will be splintered.  The INC seems to have gone back to a Jat based strategy hoping to kill of INLD and JJP so INC can face BJP 1-on-1 in 2019 to avoid a complete BJP landslide and hope for the best in 2024.  
Overall the surge of the BJP in the 2009-2019 has been amazing.  BJP went from 9.04% in the 2009 Haryana assembly elections to 58.21% in the 2019 LS elections, a near 50% swing !!

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra both BJP and SHS sources claim that alliance agreement will be announced in a day or two.  Only problem is BJP sources indicate that the seats will be shared something like  BJP-SHS 162-126 which really means 151-117 if you assume 18 seats for allies.  SHS sources insist that the agreement would be for a 50/50 split of the seats which would be something like 135-135.  I guess we will see in a couple of days.  While it is clear the BJP has the upper hand there are rumors that the national BJP is for giving into SHS just to ensure a victory while the Maharashtra BJP is pushing for pushing SHS to a junior party status.