2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[xelas81]

How many rebel candidates (candidates who belonged to a major party but now are running as independent/mirco party) have a chance to win seats?

[xelas81]

After 5 rounds of voting there seems to be an unsaid consensus that there is a reasonable chance that NDA will far short of majority, perhaps by some margin.  The opposition forces are now working to stitch up post-election alliances to prevent the pro-BJP President of India from calling the largest party (which will be BJP) to form the government by presenting a large anti-BJP coalition with a majority to the President of India when the results are out.
......

So, it seems likely that who ever becomes next PM will lead unstable coalition and probably not last 5 years before an election.

[xelas81]

It seems the amount of cash and other assets intended to be used for vote buying that have been seized by the ECI is around $500 million.  The estimated cost of the India 2019 elections is already up to $7 billion which has already exceed the cost of the 2016 US election cycle.  If you add in the implied amount of money being spent on vote buying the cost of 2019 Indian election on a per capita basis might be as high as 40%-50% of the 2016 USA cycle.  And that is in a country where the GDP/capita is well below USA.  If look at the spending in PPP terms the cost per capita is well ahead of the USA 2016 cycle.

Where is does the captured money and other assets go?

[xelas81]

Thinking about where things went wrong for INC I concluded that for me it really started with the death of YSR, INC CM of AP, in an helocoper accident right after the 2009 election...

Didn't BJP also support creation of Telangana?
While I agree that creation of Telangana hurt INC in both Telangana and AP, while would the issue matter in rest of India?

[xelas81]

With the LS over the BJP now sets their eyes on the assembly elections in the fall for Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, and J&K.

For Maharashtra it seems most of its energy is spend on trying to maneuver SHS into accepting a BJP CM for another term which would not be easy.

For J&K the current BJP strategy seems to be  to push for delimitation so create more seats in Hindu majority Jammu and decrease seats in Muslim majority Kashmir.  In theory this is against current law so it would be tough but that is the only way to increase the odds of BJP winning the assembly election.  Even if they do this then at best the number of seats from Jammu and Kashmir would be roughly similar (versus 46 to 37 today) and even if the BJP sweeps the 4 seats in Buddhist plurality Ladakh (a big if), the fact is BJP will not win any seats in Ksahmir and there are pockets of Muslim majorities in Jammu in the best case scenario the BJP could win something like 38-39 seats out of 87.  But the very act of delimitation would just push INC JKN and PDP post election to work to create a non-BJP government so the goal of a BJP CM of J&K would not be realized.

In Haryana where the BJP government is not that popular the BJP is targeting to win 75 out of 90 seats while in Jharkhand where again the BJP government is not that popular the BJP is targeting 65 seats out of 81.  Spoiler alert: they will not hit these targets.  I can see the BJP coming back to power in both states if they try to project a different CM candidate and they try to use Modi popularity to win.  It is unlikely they can win with the seat targets they indicated.

In Haryana I think the target of 75 is to try to match the 1977 JNP landslide win of 75 seats.  But that was a change of government landslide and right after the JNP won the 1977 LS election where JNP defeated the INC led bloc 70.4% to 22.6% in terms of vote share.  The BJP victory in the 2019 LS election was large but not that large in the LS election.

In Jharkhand on 3 times since 1977 have any pre-election alliance even won a majority of the Jharkhand assembly seats.  1977 (right after the JNP landslide), 1985 (after the Rajiv Gandhi LS landslide in 1984) and 2014 (after the Modi LS landslide in 2014.)   In 1985 INC only got 43 out of 81 and in 2014 BJP-AJSU only got 42 out of 81 after both parties just won a landslide victory in the LS election within 12 months of the assembly election.  in 1977 JNP+ did win 55 seats out of 81 but that was right after the 1977 LS election where the JNP+ crushed INC 63.1% to 23.0%.  The 2019 BJP-AJSU victory was large but not that large.  All signs are that the BJP can at best retain a narrow majority if it plays it cards right in  Jharkhand with 65 seats unlikely to take place.

BJP getting majority of seats J&K impossible. BJP goal should be winning enough seats in Jammu and Ladakh to force INC-JKN-PDP government. That would be pretty good results for BJP, since it would be very unstable coalition and have high chance of ending up President's rule.

[xelas81]

Looks like Rahul Gandhi has quit for real.  Front-runners for INC leader would be

Motilal Vora: Former MP CM (in 1989 only) but seen as close to Sonia Gandhi
Sushil Kumar Shinde: Former CM of Maharashtra (2003-2004) and seen as a Gandhi clan loyalist
Mallikarjun Kharge: Key INC leader of Karnataka and was floor leader of INC in LS in 2014-2019
Ghulam Nabi Azad: Former CM of J&K and of course is Muslim (all CM of J&K are Muslim)

Main problem with this list is all of them are close to the Gandhi clan with some closer than others and all of them are pretty old.  Since INC is in poor shape anyway they should really take a risk with someone with a less political experience

Why is Priyanka Gandhi not considered?

[xelas81]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/bjp-offered-shiv-sena-seats-maharashtra-assembly-polls-1598549-2019-09-12

In Maharashtra the BJP have offered SHS 106 seats which is a far cry from the 50/50 seat division that was agreed to before the 2019 LS elections.  50/50 division should be something like 235-240 each for BJP and SHS with the rest going to small party allies.  SHS have rejected this offer and demanded a 50/50 split.  With talks deadlocked

https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-maharashtra-assembly-polls-uddhav-thackeray-asks-party-workers-to-be-ready-to-go-solo-if-bjp-sena-alliance-fails-2789969

It seems SHS leader Uddhav Thackeray have asked SHS to get ready to contest alone.  I suspect this is a bluff.  If SHS accepts 106 or something like 110 seats from BJP then the result will be something like

BJP-SHS  55%
INC-NCP  30%

With INC-NCP getting to perhaps 38% of they can rope VBA-AIMIM into its alliance.

If it is 3 way battle I suspect it would be

BJP         40%
INC-NCP  28%
SHS        20%

With INC-NCP perhaps at 33% if they can rope in VBA-AIMIM into its alliance.  The idea here is if BJP and SHS ran separately both, but specially BJP, could continue to gather INC and NCP defectors and eat into their base.  The result would be a BJP plurality and possible majority.  Either way after that BJP will most likely break SHS which will not have a large number of MLAs to form a majority and SHS might become a much weaker force. 

There are factions within SHS that are advising on taking the BJP deal and wait out Modi and come back 5 years from now when hopefully Modi have retired or have become a less popular to recapture ground from BJP.  But ground once lost would be hard to regain.  SHS is in a tough spot.   

What will NMS do?
Will they try to work out a tactical alliance with INC-NCP or go alone?

[xelas81]

Maharashtra BJP-SHS deadlock continues over power-sharing and rotation of CM.  SHS is already making noises that it could form a government with the support of INC-NCP while some sources within INC and NCP are making noises that they are becoming more open to supporting a SHS government.   The deadline for government formation is 11/7 before Governor rule could be considered.  I suspect the intensity of talks and maneuvers will increase as 11/7 approaches.

If SHS government backed by INC-NCP happens, would SHS be kicked out NDA and Modi ministry?

[xelas81]

Due to continued Maoist Naxal rebel threat the Jharkhand election has to be in 5 phases so the security forces can deploy in areas that are due to vote one phase at a time.  This indirectly helps BJP as Modi can then can have a targeted campaign over a longer period as each phase are due to vote.

In the first phase which vote Nov 30 there are 13 mostly tribal heavy seats.  BJP will face rebels in at least 3 of these 13 seats, JMM-INC-RJD have strong candidates in 7 others and in 3 seats AJSU will be in the fray to split the NDA vote.

Are Naxalites supporting anyone or do they ignore party politics and elections?

[xelas81]

If BJP loses Jharkhand, won't the popular narrative be that CAB protests hurt BJP and Jharkhand results are backlash against CAB even if evidence actually points that BJP did better after the bill was passed?