2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

Sharad Pawar made an implicit threat on twitter against the NCP rebel MLAs that if they resign and run for re-election as the BJP candidate they will face a SHS-NCP-INC united front candidate to run against them.

In the meantime BJP insist that the entire NCP led by Ajit Pawar supports the new BJP-NCP government.

[jaichind]

NCP meeting of MLAs where 40+ out of 54 MLAs were present



NCP claims that the letter of support for a BJP government by NCP MLAs with signatures from the NCP MLAs was an attendance sign up sheet that Ajit Pawar then reused for a fake letter of support.

In the meantime NCP has removed Ajit Pawar from the leadership of the NCP legislative party.

[jaichind]

What Ajit Pawar tried to do is what exactly his uncle Sharad Pawar pulled off in 1978.  Amazing that after over 40 years Sharad Pawar is still at the center of Maharashtra politics.  He is the last of the Titans from his generation.

One other theory of what is going on is that Sharad Pawar was getting frustrated at the pace of talks between SHS, NCP and INC.  So he had his nephew Ajit Pawar lead fake rebellion and go over to the BJP.  He gets the test the level of resistance with NCP MLA and cadres at such a BJP-NCP arrangement and if he sees that it is negative disown the entire effort while using the threat of more NCP defections to BJP to extract more concessions from SHS and INC and at the same time discredit the BJP for their opportunism in accepting their long term enemy Ajit Pawar and distract his own opportunism at joining forces with SHS.   

1978 Maharashtra assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC(I)+     245               79              23.39% (AIFB was part of INC(I)+)

INC(I) rebel                     6                2.04%

INC+        272               70              26.28% (MUL was part of INC)

INC rebel                        1                0.61%
 
RPI            25                 2                1.06% (tactical alliance with INC+)

CPI            48                 1                1.48%

JNP+       263              114              32.28% (CPM RPI(K) were part of JNP+)

JNP rebel                        2                0.50%

PWPI        88                13                5.54% (tactical alliance with JNP+)

SHS         35                  0                 1.82%

INC and INC(I) formed a post-election alliance to kept JNP out.  This only lasted a few month until Sharad Pawar led his own anti-Indira Gandhi faction of INC out of INC and became CM with support of JNP.  This will be the first of 3 times Sharad Pawar will become CM of Maharashtra.

[jaichind]

What was funny about Saturday morning was that Indians woke up to newspapers that had Uddhav Thackeray going to be the CM


Then they turned on the TV to discover that Devendra Fadnavis became CM.

This triggered cartoons like below where between the headlines was written and printed a new headline showed up

[jaichind]

In Jharkhand, we already have Murderer vs Murder's wife vs Murder victim's wife  

https://www.indiatoday.in/mail-today/story/jharkhand-elections-brother-kills-brother-their-wives-contest-against-each-other-in-polls-1618681-2019-11-14

Jharkhand elections: Brother kills brother, their wives contest against each other

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/east-and-northeast/bjp-mla-to-contest-against-his-wife-in-jharkhand-775960.html

BJP MLA to contest against his wife in Jharkhand
 

Now we have murderer vs murderer vs murder victim's son

https://theprint.in/politics/in-jharkhand-polls-ex-mla-is-up-against-assassin-he-hired-son-of-rival-he-got-killed/324556/

In Jharkhand polls, ex-MLA is up against ‘assassin he hired & son of rival he got killed’
 

In 2005 Tamar seat JD(U) candidate Ramesh Singh Munda (with BJP support) defeated JD(U) rebel Gopal Krishna Patar.    In anger Gopal Krishna Patar contracted the notorious Maoist rebel  Kundan Pahan to murder Ramesh Singh Munda.  It was very clear that Gopal Krishna Patar and Kundan Pahan  were behind the murder but they were never convicted.  

Kundan Pahan


Gopal Krishna Patar


In 2009  Gopal Krishna Patar  got the JD(U) ticket to run with BJP support while Ramesh Singh Munda's son Vikas Kumar Munda ran for AJSU but lost to Gopal Krishna Patar.  In 2014 Gopal Krishna Patar ran for re-election as a JD(U) backed independent but lost to  Vikas Kumar Munda running on the AJSU ticket as BJP has switched support over to AJSU.  

Vikash Kumar Munda

 
Vikas Kumar Munda has since broken with AJSU and this time will run for JMM while Gopal Krishna Patar will run for NCP.   But the Maoist rebel Kundan Pahan who was arrested in 2009 has been allowed to leave on bail to contest in Tamar.    So we now have murderer vs murderer vs murder victim's son.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/unhappy-uddhav-thackeray-becoming-maharashtra-cm-shiv-sena-supporter-attempts-suicide-police-1622153-2019-11-24

"Unhappy over Uddhav Thackeray not becoming Maharashtra CM, Shiv Sena supporter attempts suicide: Police"

A 45-year-old Shiv Sena supporter, Ramesh Balu, attempted suicide in Yavatmal yesterday, allegedly over formation of BJP government in the state. He is a resident of Washim district of the state.

[jaichind]

With a vote coming up in Maharashtra it would be useful to group MLAs by pre-election alliance and where they stand now

UPA
  NCP          54  -> pro-UPA seems to be a split with a unspecified faction going over to back BJP
  INC          44  -> will be pro-UPA and anti-BJP
  SWP           1  -> most likely anti-BJP
  KSP            1  -> pro-SHS and ant-BJP, mostly because it view BJP as its main enemy
  Ind(NCP)    1  -> will back BJP since its main enemy is SHS
  YSP            1  -> will back BJP since its main enemy is SHS
  SHS rebel   1  ->  will back SHS

INC rebel     1  -> will back BJP (BJP is its main enemy so most likely $$$ is involved)
NCP rebel    1  -> pro-UPA and anti-BJP

BVA            3   -> NCP splinter and NCP tactical ally, BJP claims it will back BJP

SP              1   -> Muslim based so will be anti-BJP

PWPI          1   -> UPA tactical ally, will back BJP due to most likely $$$

CPM           1    -> anti-BJP for sure

NMS           1    -> SHS splinter and most likely anti-BJP but we will see

JJS             1    -> UPA tactical ally but old BJP ally will be pro-BJP

NDA
  BJP       105   
  SHS       56

BJP rebel    4  -> seems to be split 3 pro-BJP 1 pro-SHS
SHS rebel   4  -> seems to be split 2 pro-BJP 2 pro-SHS

RSPS         1  -> BJP ally so will be pro-BJP

PJP            2  -> SHS splinter and will be pro-SHS

AIMIM       2  -> Muslim based and will be anti-BJP

So we can group them by

pro-BJP
BJP             105
BJP rebel        3
SHS rebel       2   
RSPS             1
JJS                1
PWPI             1
BVA               3  (this is a BJP claim but lets count it for now)
INC rebel       1
Ind(NCP)       1
YSP               1
-----------------------
                 119

Anti-BJP
SHS            56
NCP            54
INC            44
SWP             1 -> could be poached by BJP
KSP              1 -> could be poached by BJP
SHS rebel     1 (elected as part of UPA) -> could be poached by BJP
SHS rebel     2 -> could be poached by BJP
NCP rebel     1  -> could be poached by BJP               
SP                2
CPM             1
NMS             1 -> could be poached by BJP
BJP rebel      1 -> could be poached by BJP
SHS rebel     3 -> could be poached by BJP
PJP               2 -> could be poached by BJP
AIMIM          2
----------------------
               169

It wll be a tall order for BJP to win.  I guess they can go after some of the independents that are for now in the anti-BJP camp and try to rope in parties like PJP, NMS, SWP and KSP which would yield 13 MLAs to get it to 132.   After that they need to squeeze around 12+ MLA from SHS NCP or INC.  In theory all possible if enough $$$ is thrown in.

[jaichind]

Claiming that the police was spying on NCP and SHS MLAs, both NCP and SHS have moved their MLAs to two close but separate 5 star hotels near the airport in Mumbai.  The reason seems to be so that it would be easier to move them out of the state if necessary and it will also be easier to hold a joint SHS-NCP MLA meeting if such a situation were to come up.  

INC leadership is also claiming that key BJP operatives are checking into he hotel in Rajasthan that INC MLAs are staying at.

[jaichind]

The SHS-NCP-INC camp says they have 162 signatures for a SHS-NCP-INC government led by Uddhav Thackeray.  It is said that 51 out of 54 NCP MLAs have signed which means the NCP rebel faction is now down to 3.  If I had to guess the 162 MLAs are

SHS            56
NCP            51 (out of 54)
INC            44
KSP              1 
SHS rebel     1 (elected as part of UPA) 
SHS rebel     2 
NCP rebel     1                 
BJP rebel      1 
SHS rebel     3 
PJP              2 
------------------------------------
               162

Which means the 1 SWP MLA might have go over to the BJP along with the 3 BVA MLAs.  SP CPM NMS and AIMIM would not be explicitly backing a government with SHS but will not back a BJP government either. 

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra  Mumbai: SHS-NCP-INC MLAs assembled at Hotel Grand Hyatt take a pledge, "I swear that under the leadership of Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray & Sonia Gandhi, I will be honest to my party. I won't get lured by anything. I will not do anything which will benefit BJP."





Sharad Pawar (NCP), Uddhav Thackeray(SHS), Mallikarjun Kharge(INC leader in Maharashtra) sitting together in joint meeting of SHS-NCP-INC MLAs 

[jaichind]

For Maharashtra stalemate at this stage the Indian Supreme Court has to rule on the SHS-NCP-INC demand that the new BJP CM face a floor test ASAP while the BJP wants to delay it.  Decision should be coming soon.

[jaichind]

The concept of SHS MLA taking an oath to accept the leadership of Sharad Pawar and  Sonia Gandhi while INC and NCP MLA taking an oath to accept the leadership of Uddhav Thackeray is so farcical it boggles the mind.

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra Supreme Court order a Floor vote for Wed 11/27 in an open and not secret vote.  Right after that Ajit Pawar resigns as DCM.  A few hours later Devendra Fadnavis resigns as CM stating that he did not have the numbers now that  Ajit Pawar  have left the government.  SHS and NCP sources claims that  Ajit Pawar came back to the mainstream NCP faction.  Thus ends the 4 day government of Devendra Fadnavis.

[jaichind]

SHS leader Uddhav Thackeray stakes claim to form government of Maharashtra based on SHS-NCP-INC alliance and will be sworn in Nov 28th.

[jaichind]

With this new unprecedented SHS-NCP-INC alliance in Maharashtra you now get unthinkable scenes like SHS MP visits Sonia Gandhi for discussions on opposition coordination against BJP in the LS

[jaichind]

The distribution of power in the Mahabharata  SHS-NCP-INC alliance will be
SHS get CM (Uddhav Thackeray) and 15 cabinet positions
NCP gets DCM (Praful Patel) and 15 cabinet positions
INC gets Speaker and 12 cabinet positions

Ajit Pawar who was slated to be the NCP DCM in a SHS-NCP-INC government is out in the cold after his attempted coup to take NCP into an alliance with BJP.   NCP took back Ajit Pawar after the coup collapsed but it seems he will be lying low a  while.

[jaichind]

C-voter poll on Jharkhand

         Seats   Vote share
BJP      33        33.3%
AJSU     6          4.6%
UPA     30        31.2%
  JMM   23       18.8%
  INC     7        12.4%
  RJD    ??         ??
JVM      6          7.7%
Others  6         23.2%



Want to change CM  Yes/No  60.6%/37.7%
Best CM
BJP  Raghubar Das      28.0% (current CM)
JMM Hemant Soren     22.7% (former CM)
JVM Babulal Marandi   21.9% (former CM)
BJP Arjun Munda          8.2% (former CM)
AJSU Sudesh Mahto      3.2% (current DCM)
JMM Shibu Soren          2.6% (former CM)

Overall I am surprised how strong JVM and JVM leader Babulal Marandi are polling. 

The poll write up seems to imply that RJD will get 0 seats but it is reasonable to assume that RJD vote share should be around 2% which would mean UPA vote share is around 33% which matches BJP.

Overall this poll is not positive at all for BJP.  Usually assembly pre-election polls overestimate the ruling party.  It seems very likely BJP will not get a majority and would not even have one with a post-election tie up with AJSU.  It also seems that JMM-INC-RJD could overtake BJP and even BJP + AJSU but will also struggle to reach majority.  We might see a lot of post-election horse trading with JVM's  Babulal Marandi being a key player.

Over the remaining 6 seats I suspect 1 or 2 will be BJP rebels, the Left parties (CPI(ML) and MCO) will win 1 or 2 seats. 

[jaichind]

Mint map on NDA state governments in light of Maharashtra change


The bad news for BJP is that there is a 50/50 chance it might lose Jharkhand.  Next year in Delhi AAP have made a pretty solid recovery from the 2019 LS hammer blow and seems to have the upper hand over BJP as it won back some of the support it lost to INC.  Also next year on paper JD(U)-BJP should retain power but there is risk that alliance could fall apart and the BJP could end up out in the cold.  The next big hope for BJP would be 2021 when it could win WB over AITC.  Just like in Delhi it seems AITC have made a recovery from the 2019 LS blow but the BJP is gaining ground day by day in WB and could flip it in 2021.

[jaichind]

Some by-elections results

Uttarakhand - Pithoragarh
BJP    51.6%
INC    45.1%
SP       1.7%

2017
BJP    49.4%
INC    45.4%

Mostly a wash.  BJP candidate is the wife of the deceased BJP incumbent.  Given the fact that ruling parties tend to do better in by-elections and the sympathy factor this a mediocre result for the BJP.


WB-Kaliaganj
AITC    44.7%
BJP      43.5%
INC       8.6% (with Left Front support)

2016
INC     53.5% (with Left Front support)
AITC    31.4%
BJP      12.9%   

Massive BJP surge taking over the INC and Left Front vote to be the main rival to AITC


WB-Karimpur
AITC   50.4%
BJP     38.8%
CPM     9.1% (with INC support)

2016
AITC   45.6%
CPM    37.6% (with INC support)
BJP     11.7%
SHS      2.3%

Again a major BJP surge taking over the INC and Left Front vote


WB-Kharagpur Sadar
AITC   47.7%
BJP     34.0%
INC     14.8% (with Left Front support)

2016
BJP     39.9%
INC     35.8% (with Left Front support)
AITC   22.1%

Here the INC and Left Front vote mostly shifted to AITC instead of BJP.  To be fair, the 2016 BJP candidate is Dilip Ghosh who was and still the leader of the WB BJP so BJP punched above its weight here in 2016.  2019 is more reversion to the mean than any real fall in BJP support.

The ruling party, AITC, is suppose to gain in assembly by-elections which they did.  On the other hand the BJP surged to be the main rival to AITC by taking over the INC and Left Front vote.  2021 is going to be an epic battle between AITC and BJP for control of WB.

[jaichind]

http://www.asianage.com/india/politics/291119/44-of-260-candidates-in-jkhand-polls-face-criminal-cases-including-rape-murder-report.html

"44 of 260 candidates in J'khand polls face criminal cases, including rape, murder: report"

44 out of 260 candidates in Phase 2 of the Jharkhand assembly elections have serious criminal cases (murder, attempted murder, rape etc etc).  In the first phase this was 26 out of 189 candidates.   So the run rate is around 15% of candidates have serious criminal cases.  The historical trends are that candidates with serious criminal cases are around twice more likely to win that a candidate without a serious criminal case so I think around 30% of the elected Jharkhand assembly will have serious criminal cases.

[jaichind]

LiveMint have some good maps on Jharkhand

Jharkhand poverty rate much higher than rest of India


Poverty rates worse in tribal areas.


 Tribal areas in NE Jharkhand are the JMM core while JVM and AJSU tend to be stronger in Southern Jharkhand areas.  BJP is strong with OBC which means that BJP stronger in Northern Jharkhand

[jaichind]

https://english.newstracklive.com/news/rajya-sabha-mp-and-adozen-maharashtra-bjp-mla-ready-to-mahavikas-aghadi-mc25-nu-1052710-1.html

"Maharashtra: BJP MLAs preparing to join Mahavikas Aghadi"

Things now have gone full circle in Maharashtra.  A bunch of NCP and INC MLAs that defected to BJP to be in government post election are now making moves to rejoin their original party now that BJP got locked out of being in government.  It sorts of tells you how much $$$ in involved here by being in the government of India's richest state.   

[jaichind]

Karnataka 15 out of 17 assembly by-election which is really a mini-assembly took place

Poll of exit polls has BJP ahead

                  BJP   INC  JD(S)   OTH
Power TV       9       4      1        1
Public TV       9       4      1        1
BTV              9        3      2       1
Divijaya       10       3      1       1
C-voter        10       4      1
----------------------------------------
                 9.4   3.6    1.2      0.8





Generally exit polls will be biased in favor of the ruling party so what we can say is that BJP is in the game to win 7 out of 15 seats to keep its majority.  It is not guaranteed but had exit polls have BJP below 7 seats then for sure BJP will not make it.

[jaichind]

https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/rahul-gandhi-returning-to-lead-congress-again/1679619

"Rahul Gandhi returning to lead Congress again?"

Former Congress President Rahul Gandhi is all set to return to lead the party and is likely to take over after the Delhi assembly polls early next year. A hint to this effect was dropped by Congress General Secretary, Organisation, K.C. Venugopal who said that country wants his leadership more now.

Rahul Gandhi is much more active in the Jharkhand assembly election whereas for the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly election he mostly went into hibernation.   I guess the idea is to let Rahul Gandhi led the INC campaign in  Jharkhand and Delhi in 2015.  And if he does well there is a legitimate argument for him to return as INC chief.

[jaichind]

Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) which passed LS last year most likely will get passed by RS as well.  What is controversial about the bill is it allows for all non-Muslims in South Asian countries who are facing oppression in their home countries a path to citizenship in India.   



BJP mostly agreed to exempt key tribal areas to get BJP and AGP to agreed to this bill.