Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Matty]

Wow

Big vote dump from Tel Aviv I’m guessing

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is one of those elections that makes me glad that the United States doesn't have a parliamentary system. In spite of all the numerous faults in our political system, we would be even worse off if we had elections like this.

I also must say that it's disturbing how tolerated corruption lately has become in our world and its politics. It's yet another election that is just way too typical for our timeline.

[_]

Wow

Big vote dump from Tel Aviv I’m guessing

The actual gap between KL and Likud only went from 48K to 43K, so if it was from Tel Aviv it was nearly all balanced

[jaichind]

With current numbers I think Right bloc will be at 69

[Angel of Death]

I knew it then, and it’s bittersweet to be in the right now. It is ultimately inevitable that Bibi is electorally undefeatable. He’ll be PM till his death bed.

I mean, he's still getting indicted. If he does win, its not hard to see him not finishing his term.

This is the part where annexing (parts of the) West Bank in exchange for passing an immunity law for a sitting prime minister comes in.

[PSOL]

This is one of those elections that makes me glad that the United States doesn't have a parliamentary system. In spite of all the numerous faults in our political system, we would be even worse off if we had elections like this.

I also must say that it's disturbing how tolerated corruption lately has become in our world and its politics. It's yet another election that is just way too typical for our timeline.

Parliamentary systems are actually pretty resistant at preventing huge takeovers from undemocratic forces compared to two-Party systems. It allows for more debate and nuance in coalition buildings that the strict orthodoxy of a two-party system doesn’t allow for. It also allows for breakaway factions and coalition disbandment if the government starts to slip up against the constituents interest.

Look at how Trump or Modi rose through for the ills of having no parliamentary system, two very baggage-heavy candidates, who got propelled merely because of tactical nose holding in a FPTP system. Look at how the Canadian Conservatives are going to win with 35% of the vote, even though 50-60% of the vote will go to a centrist party and two center-leftist+ parties. Look at how awful most FPTP political scenes actually are.

What you should really be blaming is the Israeli electorate for sucking on the teats of Reaktion, not their parliamentary system.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is one of those elections that makes me glad that the United States doesn't have a parliamentary system. In spite of all the numerous faults in our political system, we would be even worse off if we had elections like this.

I also must say that it's disturbing how tolerated corruption lately has become in our world and its politics. It's yet another election that is just way too typical for our timeline.

Parliamentary systems are actually pretty resistant at preventing huge takeovers from undemocratic forces compared to two-Party systems. It allows for more debate and nuance in coalition buildings that the strict orthodoxy of a two-party system doesn’t allow for. It also allows for breakaway factions and coalition disbandment if the government starts to slip up against the constituents interest.

Look at how Trump or Modi rose through for the ills of having no parliamentary system, two very baggage-heavy candidates, who got propelled merely because of tactical nose holding in a FPTP system. Look at how the Canadian Conservatives are going to win with 35% of the vote, even though 50-60% of the vote will go to a centrist party and two center-leftist+ parties. Look at how awful most FPTP political scenes actually are.

What you should really be blaming is the Israeli electorate for sucking on the teats of Reaktion, not their parliamentary system.

I just think that a larger party system and a need to form coalition governments would cause further partisanship than we have even now. Especially in a narrow election like this one.

[danny]

Wow

Big vote dump from Tel Aviv I’m guessing

I think you are looking at this from an American point of view. Tel Aviv doesn't make up that much of the population of the country, and while it's definitely to the left of the country as a whole, there are plenty of places to its left.

[PSOL]

This is one of those elections that makes me glad that the United States doesn't have a parliamentary system. In spite of all the numerous faults in our political system, we would be even worse off if we had elections like this.

I also must say that it's disturbing how tolerated corruption lately has become in our world and its politics. It's yet another election that is just way too typical for our timeline.

Parliamentary systems are actually pretty resistant at preventing huge takeovers from undemocratic forces compared to two-Party systems. It allows for more debate and nuance in coalition buildings that the strict orthodoxy of a two-party system doesn’t allow for. It also allows for breakaway factions and coalition disbandment if the government starts to slip up against the constituents interest.

Look at how Trump or Modi rose through for the ills of having no parliamentary system, two very baggage-heavy candidates, who got propelled merely because of tactical nose holding in a FPTP system. Look at how the Canadian Conservatives are going to win with 35% of the vote, even though 50-60% of the vote will go to a centrist party and two center-leftist+ parties. Look at how awful most FPTP political scenes actually are.

What you should really be blaming is the Israeli electorate for sucking on the teats of Reaktion, not their parliamentary system.

I just think that a larger party system and a need to form coalition governments would cause further partisanship than we have even now. Especially in a narrow election like this one.

And yet the anger brought forth by partisanship are much weaker in these stable Parliamentary systems. You don’t see the aggressive style of race-baiting and willingness to delve into worship of centralized figures in countries like Spain or Sweden.

In our case, our system fails us in creating our current mess. In Israel’s case, you can’t build a stable and accepting society if it’s roots and ethos are structured to be statist and centralized around a small group, same way things got in Hungary. Blame the player, not the game.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This is one of those elections that makes me glad that the United States doesn't have a parliamentary system. In spite of all the numerous faults in our political system, we would be even worse off if we had elections like this.

I also must say that it's disturbing how tolerated corruption lately has become in our world and its politics. It's yet another election that is just way too typical for our timeline.

Parliamentary systems are actually pretty resistant at preventing huge takeovers from undemocratic forces compared to two-Party systems. It allows for more debate and nuance in coalition buildings that the strict orthodoxy of a two-party system doesn’t allow for. It also allows for breakaway factions and coalition disbandment if the government starts to slip up against the constituents interest.

Look at how Trump or Modi rose through for the ills of having no parliamentary system, two very baggage-heavy candidates, who got propelled merely because of tactical nose holding in a FPTP system. Look at how the Canadian Conservatives are going to win with 35% of the vote, even though 50-60% of the vote will go to a centrist party and two center-leftist+ parties. Look at how awful most FPTP political scenes actually are.

What you should really be blaming is the Israeli electorate for sucking on the teats of Reaktion, not their parliamentary system.

I just think that a larger party system and a need to form coalition governments would cause further partisanship than we have even now. Especially in a narrow election like this one.

And yet the anger brought forth by partisanship are much weaker in these stable Parliamentary systems. You don’t see the aggressive style of race-baiting and willingness to delve into worship of centralized figures in countries like Spain or Sweden.

In our case, our system fails us in created this mess. In Israel’s case, you can’t build a stable and accepting society if it’s roots and ethos are structured to be statist and centralized around a small group, same way things got in Hungary.

Well, you do, but those parties don't win nearly half the vote the way they can in two-party systems.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is one of those elections that makes me glad that the United States doesn't have a parliamentary system. In spite of all the numerous faults in our political system, we would be even worse off if we had elections like this.

I also must say that it's disturbing how tolerated corruption lately has become in our world and its politics. It's yet another election that is just way too typical for our timeline.

Parliamentary systems are actually pretty resistant at preventing huge takeovers from undemocratic forces compared to two-Party systems. It allows for more debate and nuance in coalition buildings that the strict orthodoxy of a two-party system doesn’t allow for. It also allows for breakaway factions and coalition disbandment if the government starts to slip up against the constituents interest.

Look at how Trump or Modi rose through for the ills of having no parliamentary system, two very baggage-heavy candidates, who got propelled merely because of tactical nose holding in a FPTP system. Look at how the Canadian Conservatives are going to win with 35% of the vote, even though 50-60% of the vote will go to a centrist party and two center-leftist+ parties. Look at how awful most FPTP political scenes actually are.

What you should really be blaming is the Israeli electorate for sucking on the teats of Reaktion, not their parliamentary system.

FPTP has really benefited India and India does have a parliamentary system lol. Also in a proportional system it is almost always impossible to take down the incumbent party.


FPTP is more Democratic than Proportional IMO

[PSOL]

This is one of those elections that makes me glad that the United States doesn't have a parliamentary system. In spite of all the numerous faults in our political system, we would be even worse off if we had elections like this.

I also must say that it's disturbing how tolerated corruption lately has become in our world and its politics. It's yet another election that is just way too typical for our timeline.

Parliamentary systems are actually pretty resistant at preventing huge takeovers from undemocratic forces compared to two-Party systems. It allows for more debate and nuance in coalition buildings that the strict orthodoxy of a two-party system doesn’t allow for. It also allows for breakaway factions and coalition disbandment if the government starts to slip up against the constituents interest.

Look at how Trump or Modi rose through for the ills of having no parliamentary system, two very baggage-heavy candidates, who got propelled merely because of tactical nose holding in a FPTP system. Look at how the Canadian Conservatives are going to win with 35% of the vote, even though 50-60% of the vote will go to a centrist party and two center-leftist+ parties. Look at how awful most FPTP political scenes actually are.

What you should really be blaming is the Israeli electorate for sucking on the teats of Reaktion, not their parliamentary system.

I just think that a larger party system and a need to form coalition governments would cause further partisanship than we have even now. Especially in a narrow election like this one.

And yet the anger brought forth by partisanship are much weaker in these stable Parliamentary systems. You don’t see the aggressive style of race-baiting and willingness to delve into worship of centralized figures in countries like Spain or Sweden.

In our case, our system fails us in created this mess. In Israel’s case, you can’t build a stable and accepting society if it’s roots and ethos are structured to be statist and centralized around a small group, same way things got in Hungary.

Well, you do, but those parties don't win nearly half the vote the way they can in two-party systems.

Exactly, they also lack support by most other “moderate” Rightists in advertised rhetoric, nor mainstream mass media outlets espousing their views.

Meanwhile; in diverse and multiparty Israel there’s a vast multitude of political parties, cabinet members, and media outlets wanting borderline cleansing of each other as the norm.

[Cashew]

This is one of those elections that makes me glad that the United States doesn't have a parliamentary system. In spite of all the numerous faults in our political system, we would be even worse off if we had elections like this.

I also must say that it's disturbing how tolerated corruption lately has become in our world and its politics. It's yet another election that is just way too typical for our timeline.

Parliamentary systems are actually pretty resistant at preventing huge takeovers from undemocratic forces compared to two-Party systems. It allows for more debate and nuance in coalition buildings that the strict orthodoxy of a two-party system doesn’t allow for. It also allows for breakaway factions and coalition disbandment if the government starts to slip up against the constituents interest.

Look at how Trump or Modi rose through for the ills of having no parliamentary system, two very baggage-heavy candidates, who got propelled merely because of tactical nose holding in a FPTP system. Look at how the Canadian Conservatives are going to win with 35% of the vote, even though 50-60% of the vote will go to a centrist party and two center-leftist+ parties. Look at how awful most FPTP political scenes actually are.

What you should really be blaming is the Israeli electorate for sucking on the teats of Reaktion, not their parliamentary system.

I just think that a larger party system and a need to form coalition governments would cause further partisanship than we have even now. Especially in a narrow election like this one.

Where's the incentive for further partisanship? In a 2 party system the only way to punish a party that is closer to you politically is to either not vote or vote for the even worse party which implicitly benefits the party you disagree with more incentivizing people to rationalize support for the party closer to them no matter how bad they are.

With more parties the price of defecting from your party is far less, if you are a right winger in a country with 3 different right wing parties you can safely defect from your own party to another slightly different party without fear that changing your vote will benefit the left. Seems pretty liberating to me.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is one of those elections that makes me glad that the United States doesn't have a parliamentary system. In spite of all the numerous faults in our political system, we would be even worse off if we had elections like this.

I also must say that it's disturbing how tolerated corruption lately has become in our world and its politics. It's yet another election that is just way too typical for our timeline.

Parliamentary systems are actually pretty resistant at preventing huge takeovers from undemocratic forces compared to two-Party systems. It allows for more debate and nuance in coalition buildings that the strict orthodoxy of a two-party system doesn’t allow for. It also allows for breakaway factions and coalition disbandment if the government starts to slip up against the constituents interest.

Look at how Trump or Modi rose through for the ills of having no parliamentary system, two very baggage-heavy candidates, who got propelled merely because of tactical nose holding in a FPTP system. Look at how the Canadian Conservatives are going to win with 35% of the vote, even though 50-60% of the vote will go to a centrist party and two center-leftist+ parties. Look at how awful most FPTP political scenes actually are.

What you should really be blaming is the Israeli electorate for sucking on the teats of Reaktion, not their parliamentary system.

I just think that a larger party system and a need to form coalition governments would cause further partisanship than we have even now. Especially in a narrow election like this one.

Where's the incentive for further partisanship? In a 2 party system the only way to punish a party that is closer to you politically is to either not vote or vote for the even worst party which implicitly benefits the party you disagree with more incentivizing people to rationalize support for the party closer to them no matter how bad they are.

With more parties the price of defecting from your party is far less, if you are a right winger in a country with 3 different right wing parties you can safely defect from your own party to another slightly different party without fear that changing your vote will benefit the left. Seems pretty liberating to me.

Theoretically, it seems to be great bu in reality not so much. In reality a proportional system makes it easier for the incumbent party to get reelected

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is one of those elections that makes me glad that the United States doesn't have a parliamentary system. In spite of all the numerous faults in our political system, we would be even worse off if we had elections like this.

I also must say that it's disturbing how tolerated corruption lately has become in our world and its politics. It's yet another election that is just way too typical for our timeline.

Parliamentary systems are actually pretty resistant at preventing huge takeovers from undemocratic forces compared to two-Party systems. It allows for more debate and nuance in coalition buildings that the strict orthodoxy of a two-party system doesn’t allow for. It also allows for breakaway factions and coalition disbandment if the government starts to slip up against the constituents interest.

Look at how Trump or Modi rose through for the ills of having no parliamentary system, two very baggage-heavy candidates, who got propelled merely because of tactical nose holding in a FPTP system. Look at how the Canadian Conservatives are going to win with 35% of the vote, even though 50-60% of the vote will go to a centrist party and two center-leftist+ parties. Look at how awful most FPTP political scenes actually are.

What you should really be blaming is the Israeli electorate for sucking on the teats of Reaktion, not their parliamentary system.

I just think that a larger party system and a need to form coalition governments would cause further partisanship than we have even now. Especially in a narrow election like this one.

Where's the incentive for further partisanship? In a 2 party system the only way to punish a party that is closer to you politically is to either not vote or vote for the even worst party which implicitly benefits the party you disagree with more incentivizing people to rationalize support for the party closer to them no matter how bad they are.

With more parties the price of defecting from your party is far less, if you are a right winger in a country with 3 different right wing parties you can safely defect from your own party to another slightly different party without fear that changing your vote will benefit the left. Seems pretty liberating to me.

Not for the left. I think there would be a lot of infighting even if a coalition of left wing parties were to form in our country. And that would not be healthy either, especially if that coalition is the one in power.

[PSOL]

This is one of those elections that makes me glad that the United States doesn't have a parliamentary system. In spite of all the numerous faults in our political system, we would be even worse off if we had elections like this.

I also must say that it's disturbing how tolerated corruption lately has become in our world and its politics. It's yet another election that is just way too typical for our timeline.

Parliamentary systems are actually pretty resistant at preventing huge takeovers from undemocratic forces compared to two-Party systems. It allows for more debate and nuance in coalition buildings that the strict orthodoxy of a two-party system doesn’t allow for. It also allows for breakaway factions and coalition disbandment if the government starts to slip up against the constituents interest.

Look at how Trump or Modi rose through for the ills of having no parliamentary system, two very baggage-heavy candidates, who got propelled merely because of tactical nose holding in a FPTP system. Look at how the Canadian Conservatives are going to win with 35% of the vote, even though 50-60% of the vote will go to a centrist party and two center-leftist+ parties. Look at how awful most FPTP political scenes actually are.

What you should really be blaming is the Israeli electorate for sucking on the teats of Reaktion, not their parliamentary system.

FPTP has really benefited India and India does have a parliamentary system lol. Also in a proportional system it is almost always impossible to take down the incumbent party.


FPTP is more Democratic than Proportional IMO

Because I see clear diversity of opinion in two-party systems— not some forced combinations of different identities under one party, and subsequent voter apathy and displeasure with the current situation. Oh wait, nevermind, that is the norm with all of them.

Also surely—with job growth being slowed down, communal and ethnoreligious tensions the highest its ever been since Indira Ghandi, and farmers doing consistent protests in the streets over barely making enough to slow their premature deaths a few more years—how could Modi’s tenure be anything less than a success.

Either way, we’re getting too off-topic for so long to continue this trajectory.

[DavidB.]

Seat distribution would now be:
Likud 38
KL 36
Shas 8
UTJ 7
YB 6
Labour 6
Hadash-Taal 5
Kulanu 5
Meretz 5
URP 4

68-52 for the right

[PSOL]

Seat distribution would now be:
Likud 38
KL 36
Shas 8
UTJ 7
YB 6
Labour 6
Hadash-Taal 5
Kulanu 5
Meretz 5
URP 4

68-52 for the right

Is there a possibility for Hadash-Ta’al to get more seats than Labour?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Update 8:58 pm est

3,465,875 votes counted

Likud 27.07%
Blue and White 25.96%
Shas 6.05%
UTJ 5.44%
Labor 4.45%
Yisrael Beiteinu 4.35%
Hadash-Ta'al 4.27%
United Right 3.66%
Kulanu 3.64%
Meretz 3.61%
--------
Ra'am-Balad 3.22%
New Right 3.14%
Zehut 2.55%
Gesher 1.75%

[danny]

3.44M votes counted:
Likud:                27.07%
blue and white:  25.96%
Shas:                 6.05%
UTJ:                   5.44%
Labor:                4.45%
Beitenu:             4.35%
Hadash:             4.27%
United Right:      3.66%
Kulanu:              3.64%
Meretz:              3.61%
            Threshold
RAAM BALAD:     3.22%
New Right:         3.14%
Zehut:               2.55%
Gesher:             1.75%

[Cashew]

This is one of those elections that makes me glad that the United States doesn't have a parliamentary system. In spite of all the numerous faults in our political system, we would be even worse off if we had elections like this.

I also must say that it's disturbing how tolerated corruption lately has become in our world and its politics. It's yet another election that is just way too typical for our timeline.

Parliamentary systems are actually pretty resistant at preventing huge takeovers from undemocratic forces compared to two-Party systems. It allows for more debate and nuance in coalition buildings that the strict orthodoxy of a two-party system doesn’t allow for. It also allows for breakaway factions and coalition disbandment if the government starts to slip up against the constituents interest.

Look at how Trump or Modi rose through for the ills of having no parliamentary system, two very baggage-heavy candidates, who got propelled merely because of tactical nose holding in a FPTP system. Look at how the Canadian Conservatives are going to win with 35% of the vote, even though 50-60% of the vote will go to a centrist party and two center-leftist+ parties. Look at how awful most FPTP political scenes actually are.

What you should really be blaming is the Israeli electorate for sucking on the teats of Reaktion, not their parliamentary system.

I just think that a larger party system and a need to form coalition governments would cause further partisanship than we have even now. Especially in a narrow election like this one.

Where's the incentive for further partisanship? In a 2 party system the only way to punish a party that is closer to you politically is to either not vote or vote for the even worst party which implicitly benefits the party you disagree with more incentivizing people to rationalize support for the party closer to them no matter how bad they are.

With more parties the price of defecting from your party is far less, if you are a right winger in a country with 3 different right wing parties you can safely defect from your own party to another slightly different party without fear that changing your vote will benefit the left. Seems pretty liberating to me.

Theoretically, it seems to be great bu in reality not so much. In reality a proportional system makes it easier for the incumbent party to get reelected

I don't know whether that's true or not but if so is that a bad thing in and of itself? I just don't find that a convincing argument for FPTP.

[jaichind]

With current numbers I think Right bloc will be at 68.  If Ra'am-Balad get across the threshold then the Right bloc will be at 66

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any sense where the remaining votes come from?

I doubt Likud's lead will fade at this point, but I guess there's still a chance if the remaining 20-25% are very strong for BW.

[DavidB.]

Story seems to be as follows: the center-left actually wins quite a bit in most places, as KL manages to achieve about the same score as ZU+YA combined. But add Labour 2019 to it and you're at a higher % even if Meretz loses slightly.

However, the loss of Arab seats in combination + absolutely impressive Likud blowouts in their peripheral strongholds = about the same left-right distribution as in 2015. But of course KL is to the right of ZU, so the left bloc became a lot more centrist.

This isn't the Netanyahu blowout we kind of thought was happening an hour ago, though. It will be really close even if they do top the poll. Still, his gains compared to 2015 are impressive. Highest % for Netanyahu ever and Likud will get more than a million votes for the first time.

Is there a possibility for Hadash-Ta’al to get more seats than Labour?

They're only 7k votes separated from each other, so who knows.

[Famous Mortimer]

Prison votes are going to come in and put Balad over the threshold. This happened in every election prior to the formation of the Joint List.