Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[DavidB.]

Prison votes are going to come in and put Balad over the threshold. This happened in every election prior to the formation of the Joint List.

And soldiers should probably get NR over the threshold.

[AndyHogan14]

From what I am seeing, the margin has narrowed significantly...currently at 63-57 (unless my math is wrong) with the right block leading the centrist/left/Arab parties. This might end up being a nail-biter after all.

[brucejoel99]

This is one of those elections that makes me glad that the United States doesn't have a parliamentary system. In spite of all the numerous faults in our political system, we would be even worse off if we had elections like this.

I also must say that it's disturbing how tolerated corruption lately has become in our world and its politics. It's yet another election that is just way too typical for our timeline.

Parliamentary systems are actually pretty resistant at preventing huge takeovers from undemocratic forces compared to two-Party systems. It allows for more debate and nuance in coalition buildings that the strict orthodoxy of a two-party system doesn’t allow for. It also allows for breakaway factions and coalition disbandment if the government starts to slip up against the constituents interest.

Look at how Trump or Modi rose through for the ills of having no parliamentary system, two very baggage-heavy candidates, who got propelled merely because of tactical nose holding in a FPTP system. Look at how the Canadian Conservatives are going to win with 35% of the vote, even though 50-60% of the vote will go to a centrist party and two center-leftist+ parties. Look at how awful most FPTP political scenes actually are.

What you should really be blaming is the Israeli electorate for sucking on the teats of Reaktion, not their parliamentary system.

FPTP has really benefited India and India does have a parliamentary system lol. Also in a proportional system it is almost always impossible to take down the incumbent party.


FPTP is more Democratic than Proportional IMO

Probably not good to help continue this unrelated off-topic tangent in this thread, but oh well b/c it needs to be called out that FPTP is definitely NOT more democratic than proportional representation.

The democratic benefits to proportional representation are both extensive & convincing. The proportionality aspect alone makes proportional representation very attractive in that a nation's elections can manifest into results that truly represent the desires of the electorate. Additional advantages are a greater social representation, proportional representation allows for a larger mix of officeholders to be elected at one time (rather than just the one winner in each district/constituency/riding/etc. found in FPTP) thus creating a greater ethnic, religious, gender, age, background, etc. proportionality; & a greater political representation in that proportional representation ensures that the smaller parties are fairly represented in the legislature through downplaying the successes of the larger parties which can be clearly evident in FPTP.

In contrast to the use of proportional representation, it can very easily be argued that the use of FPTP produces not just undemocratic results, but undesirable ones. FPTP tends to produce incredibly disproportionate results to the true desires of the electorate, under-representing smaller parties, over-representing the victorious parties, & producing a huge number of wasted votes that only goes so far as to fuel apathy for those voters. No democratically thinking individual can view such results as fair to the electorate that voted. And further issues with the use of FPTP would be the issue of gerrymandering, which can create incredibly targeted district/constituency/riding/etc. boundaries that only seek to cement safe seats, as well as the creation of a false impression of public opinion.

So far, there has been a substantial bulk of evidence pointing towards the preferential status of proportional representation over the use of FPTP, thus thoroughly refuting your contention (bolded above).

[DavidB.]

I don't actually see, given current returns, how Likud tops the poll rather than KL. KL has at least the same amount of support of ZU+YA almost everywhere (significantly more in some places), which would get them to at least 37. Likud, meanwhile, has small increases everywhere (significantly more in some places). More in line with 33-35 seats. KL leading in all bellwethers confirms this too. But maybe I'm missing something important. I probably am.

[AndyHogan14]

I don't actually see, given current returns, how Likud tops the poll rather than KL. KL has at least the same amount of support of ZU+YA almost everywhere (significantly more in some places), which would get them to at least 37. Likud, meanwhile, has small increases everywhere. More in line with 33-35 seats. KL leading in all bellwethers confirms this too. But maybe I'm missing something important. I probably am.

If KL ends up topping the poll, I wonder if Rivlin will try and encourage the two parties to form a national unity coalition. At this point, any right-leaning or centrist/left-leaning/Arab coalition would be totally unstable...

[pppolitics]

Likud: 26.47%

Blue and White: 26.11%

[DavidB.]

https://twitter.com/alonadoli/status/1115798511235235840

[pppolitics]

Why is Google's result updated much faster than Israel's official website?

https://www.google.com/search?q=2019+israeli+election+results

[Thatkat04]

Seems like the exit polls were pretty spot on all things considered. Give or take a few seats of course.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Update 10:20 pm est

4,016,310 votes counted

Likud 26.47%
Blue and White 26.11%
Shas 6.13%
UTJ 5.94%
Labor 4.48%
Hadash-Ta'al 4.35%
Yisrael Beiteinu 4.13%
United Right 3.69%
Meretz 3.61%
Kulanu 3.57%
--------
Ra'am-Balad 3.247%
New Right 3.17%
Zehut 2.53%
Gesher 1.75%

Edited because Ra'am-Balad is technically just barely below the 3.25% threshold

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Google has this seat total:

Likud 35
BW 35
Shas 8
UTJ 8
Hadash 6
Labor 6
UR 5
YB 5
Kulanu 4
Meretz 4
Ra'am 4

Coalitions: 65-45-10

[Antonio the Sixth]

If BW keeps creeping up and Likud creeping down and New Right stays below threshold, this could actually work out decently for the center in terms of seats, right?

[jaichind]

If BW keeps creeping up and Likud creeping down and New Right stays below threshold, this could actually work out decently for the center in terms of seats, right?

But even then the path for Likud to form a government would still be much easier than B&W 

[jaichind]

Looks like Zehut is not going to make it.  Oh well. 

[_]

Well, depends where those last 400K votes are, but I think Ra'am makes it and KL gets to 36 seats, we'll see

[Boobs]

Looks like Zehut is not going to make it.

A silver lining.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If BW keeps creeping up and Likud creeping down and New Right stays below threshold, this could actually work out decently for the center in terms of seats, right?

But even then the path for Likud to form a government would still be much easier than B&W 

Well, yeah, that was a given since the exit polls.

[DavidB.]

If BW keeps creeping up and Likud creeping down and New Right stays below threshold, this could actually work out decently for the center in terms of seats, right?

The left still isn't doing great in terms of seats. I'm guessing the right will be in the low-to-mid 60s if NR doesn't get in, mid-to-high 60s if NR does get in.

65-55 has been about the standard distribution of seats in terms of right vs. left for a couple of elections now, so no surprise there. But not enough for the left either. Given the fact that KL shifted much further to the right than ZU, that's not a conclusion that should give the left much optimism. Zehut being out also really helps Netanyahu. He now may only need the Haredim, YB and URP. Could possibly even get to 61 without Kulanu.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If BW keeps creeping up and Likud creeping down and New Right stays below threshold, this could actually work out decently for the center in terms of seats, right?

The left still isn't doing great in terms of seats. I'm guessing the right will be in the low-to-mid 60s if NR doesn't get in, mid-to-high 60s if NR does get in.

65-55 has been about the standard distribution of seats in terms of right vs. left for a couple of elections now, so no surprise there. But not enough for the left either. Given the fact that KL shifted much further to the right than ZU, that's not a conclusion that should give the left much optimism. Zehut being out also really helps Netanyahu. He now may only need the Haredim, YB and URP. Could possibly even get to 61 without Kulanu.

Oh, wonderful.

[SCNCmod]

If Gantz were to pull ahead (and was still ahead when all votes are counted)-

What do you think the outcome will be?  ...Bibi still Prime Minister or not?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If BW keeps creeping up and Likud creeping down and New Right stays below threshold, this could actually work out decently for the center in terms of seats, right?

The left still isn't doing great in terms of seats. I'm guessing the right will be in the low-to-mid 60s if NR doesn't get in, mid-to-high 60s if NR does get in.

65-55 has been about the standard distribution of seats in terms of right vs. left for a couple of elections now, so no surprise there. But not enough for the left either. Given the fact that KL shifted much further to the right than ZU, that's not a conclusion that should give the left much optimism. Zehut being out also really helps Netanyahu. He now may only need the Haredim, YB and URP. Could possibly even get to 61 without Kulanu.

This is entirely correct. Gantz is not center-left under any reasonable definition of that term. It's just that Likud has shifted so far to the right in terms of both the party's own policies as well as its preferred alliances with other parties in the Knesset that Gantz seems like a centrist by comparison.

[Thatkat04]

If Gantz were to pull ahead (and was still ahead when all votes are counted)-

What do you think the outcome will be?  ...Bibi still Prime Minister or not?

Bibi would still be in the best position to form a government. Would probably piss Bibi off though with Likud not being the largest party.

Edit: Likud came in second in 2009 f.y.i.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Israeli_legislative_election

[KaiserDave]

If BW keeps creeping up and Likud creeping down and New Right stays below threshold, this could actually work out decently for the center in terms of seats, right?

The left still isn't doing great in terms of seats. I'm guessing the right will be in the low-to-mid 60s if NR doesn't get in, mid-to-high 60s if NR does get in.

65-55 has been about the standard distribution of seats in terms of right vs. left for a couple of elections now, so no surprise there. But not enough for the left either. Given the fact that KL shifted much further to the right than ZU, that's not a conclusion that should give the left much optimism. Zehut being out also really helps Netanyahu. He now may only need the Haredim, YB and URP. Could possibly even get to 61 without Kulanu.

This is entirely correct. Gantz is not center-left under any reasonable definition of that term. It's just that Likud has shifted so far to the right in terms of both the party's own policies as well as its preferred alliances with other parties in the Knesset that Gantz seems like a centrist by comparison.

At this point I just want to get rid of Netenyahu.

[DavidB.]

More than 97% of the votes counted now. Gap between Likud and KL 11k in favor of the former. Balad-Ra'am at 3.45% and in, New Right at 3.16% and almost definitely out.

[SCNCmod]

The consensus seems to be soldier vote will benefit Likud... but isn't Gantz a military man? will this give B&W a chance at a bigger share than normal of the soldier vote?