The Official 2020 Census Thread

[jimrtex]

If you answer online can you skip questions or does it have a bunch of annoying must fill answer fields that you can normally skip on the paper census.

The online form is the same as for paper and phone ... and it's quite short and basic.

You can complete it in 5-10 minutes.

The long-form doesn't exist anymore in the 10-year census and was replaced by the annual American Community Survey, which only a handful of US households answer each year (= sample).

 I did it online. I did get to skip questions but only after clicking through twice. The Census was very short and I hope this means I'm not bothered with any followup.

Your entries are checked by an algorithm for flawed entries, for example if you typed in your age as 169 years old or entered „Borg“ as your race or „Ferengi“ as your ancestry, it is likely that you still get visited by a census taker in the fall.

On the other hand, this is secondary of importance to the Census Bureau. They are more concerned with visiting those households where nothing came back to them ... despite 5 letters and repeat letters to respond.

The paper form has long asked for both a birthdate and age. There is phenomena where more people report they are 80, with dropoffs for 79 and 81. If you take out the 0 and 5 minispikes, age is pretty smooth.

When you get older, you are less sure whether you will reach the next benchmark, and almost 80 becomes 80. I guess it depends on what the meaning of is is.

At one time, when there were actual enumerators, newborns were listed as 3 mos, 7 mos., etc. Now they are 0 years until their first birthday.

On the electronic form, I think it calculates the age after entering the birthday, and asks you to confirm your age.

Follow-up is statistically-based, similar to how they audit taxes. If you are a factory worker and your 1040Z matches your W-2, you won't be audited. If you are "self-employed" your odds go up.

For the 2016 Census Test, I got a follow-up call. I thought they were going to go through my answers and check whether or not I would give the same answer. Instead , they went through a v...e...r...y long list of possible occupants that you might have missed. If you live alone, they are pretty strange, since they were asking about non-existent children who were away at school, in shared-custody. The weirdest is when they asked if I had recently checked under the seat cushion in my couch.

[jimrtex]

45.7% today (+0.6)

Hopefully the paper questionnaires will lead to a boost next week ...

46.2% today (+0.5)

Getting slower and slower ...

Part of the problem is that the usual knock-and-drop operations in rural and other areas are currently on hold due to the coronavirus.

Not really.

Update/leave operations are only for 4.5% of all US households.

95.5% of the households have already received an invitation to respond, and more than half of them didn’t so far.

This varies quite a bit around the country.

McDowell County, WV is about 99.6% Update Leave. The last I checked they were up to 2.3%. You can respond without an invitation, but it may be somewhat hard to establish where you live.

When you enter the 12-letter code, your address appears, and you are asked if that is your address. If you don't have a code, you have to go through a process to establish your location.

I couldn't find a data set that would allow calculation of TEAs by county or state. For McDowell I had to zoom in with the TEA viewer and click on each census tract.

The 4.5% would be percentage of housing units, not households. The actual response rate is understated at this point. Not all housing units are actual units. The update portion of update and leave is to verify existence/non-existence of some buildings. If a building does not exist, or is a barn full of tractors, or is vacant, it is not non-respondent.

The current US snapshot US Quick Facts says that there are 138 mn housing units, but 119 million households. There is nobody to respond in 19 mn housing units.

Even if every household responded, the response rate would only be 86%. In addition, it appears that there are another 7 million structures, etc. that are included in the census coverage.

The denominator for response rates will decrease over time.

[jimrtex]

I know that the envelope says: „Your response is required by law“.

But many people don’t care.

That’s why they should additionally print „You will face a 50.000$ fine or 5 years imprisonment if you do not fill out your form“.

In this case, people would „get it“.

I don't get this $50 fine.

50k $ !



People would think twice about skipping this decade-only survey, if they had to pay most of their annual salary or face a multi-year prison sentence ...

$50,000?

Many moons ago, the oil company that my employer was contracted to had visitors from their German subsidiary. They were shown how we worked, and so were shown how to code data for punch cards. This was way below their expertise level, but was to show them how the data they got was actually produced. They were at high enough level, and European enough, that they thought it normative to buy a gift of cologne for the wife of an American counterpart.

The forms were sent off for someone to actually keypunch the data. It came back with a nasty note to not make your '1's look like '7's.

After a multi-year prison sentence, non-citizens could be deported.

[Tender Branson]

Ocasio-Cortez calls for extending census period

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) called Thursday for the government to extend the 2020 Census counting period amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Ocasio-Cortez, a staunch progressive, warned that issues with the census related to the coronavirus could lead to skewed results that influence where federal resources are allocated. The New York lawmaker cited statistics showing that in-person reporting for the census is down, a factor aggravated by COVID-19.

“The U.S. Census Bureau has suspended all fieldwork until April 15, and likely will have to suspend further. Self-reporting is currently down across the country compared to 2010,” she wrote for the liberal think tank Data For Progress. “Congress should strongly consider delaying the Census as much as the law allows, in order to ensure we have a comprehensive survey of the national population.”

The census bureau announced in March it is delaying the deadline for counting from the end of July to mid-August, though Ocasio-Cortez said the change was not enough.

Data For Progress released figures showing 78 percent of voters support extending the census deadline, including large majorities of both Democrats and Republicans.

Ocasio-Cortez wrote that the need for a proper count is even higher in 2020 than in the past after the coronavirus laid bare inequalities that would not be rectified by a flawed census.

“My district, which is overwhelmingly working-class and one of the most diverse in the country, is also one of the districts hardest hit by the virus,” she wrote.

“This crisis has only underscored the need for an accurate count - so that resources can be appropriately and quickly distributed in an emergency. However, as things currently stand, those districts hit the hardest by COVID-19, those districts which already suffer greatest from structural racism and inequity, stand to be the most undercounted,” she added.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/492093-ocasio-cortez-calls-for-extending-census-period

Not a bad idea.

I think they should extend the self-response period well into the fall and keep on advertising until then.

Then, the census takers should hit the road in the fall and the redistricting data should be delayed until summer next year to give the CB more time to process the results.

Reference Day was April 1, so memories will fade as more time goes by ... but during Coronavirus not many people are going to be evicted anyway over the next months, or move to other places. So, the integrity could be guaranteed.

Besides, AOCs claim that response rates are down from 2010 is a bit early because there are different dynamics at play this year (most respond earlier and online, while there is a 2nd wave of mail-in questionnaires coming back soon).

[jimrtex]

You may have missed the part I highlighted.

They are going to mail out invitations in the update/leave areas.

I have not missed it.

It's good that they are mailing it out now, but of what use is it ? As you said, most of these places have no mail box. It's better to follow up in person during the fall and count those places.

Anyway, the mail questionnaires are going out between April 8-16, which means it takes another week or so for people to fill them out, send them back and be processed.

Any spike in responses will likely only show up at the end of April ... but I have hope that 70% can still be reached with this second wave.

It's not exactly true that they don't have mail boxes. Box 120 RR 2, Bugtussle, OK might be  a legitimate mailing address. But the Census Bureau might not know where it is. And there may be other structures nearby that they don't have addresses for. They also wanted consistent handling of an area, so you wouldn't have some houses in self-response, and neighboring houses update/leave. The precise criteria is not known. There were comments made by groups purporting to be civil rights advocacy group complaining that the Census Bureau had dropped too many areas from Update/Leave.

The intent of the update/leave areas was that first contact be in-person by a census worker who was getting an accurate inventory of housing. After the initial contact, the house would enter the main sequence with followup letters. If they had been able to start the process on March 15*, it would have been mostly in phase with the rest of the country.

Apparently based on a recent press release, a very few update/leave housing units did get covered before they suspended field operations.

[jimrtex]

Ocasio-Cortez calls for extending census period

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) called Thursday for the government to extend the 2020 Census counting period amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Ocasio-Cortez, a staunch progressive, warned that issues with the census related to the coronavirus could lead to skewed results that influence where federal resources are allocated. The New York lawmaker cited statistics showing that in-person reporting for the census is down, a factor aggravated by COVID-19.

“The U.S. Census Bureau has suspended all fieldwork until April 15, and likely will have to suspend further. Self-reporting is currently down across the country compared to 2010,” she wrote for the liberal think tank Data For Progress. “Congress should strongly consider delaying the Census as much as the law allows, in order to ensure we have a comprehensive survey of the national population.”

The census bureau announced in March it is delaying the deadline for counting from the end of July to mid-August, though Ocasio-Cortez said the change was not enough.

Data For Progress released figures showing 78 percent of voters support extending the census deadline, including large majorities of both Democrats and Republicans.

Ocasio-Cortez wrote that the need for a proper count is even higher in 2020 than in the past after the coronavirus laid bare inequalities that would not be rectified by a flawed census.

“My district, which is overwhelmingly working-class and one of the most diverse in the country, is also one of the districts hardest hit by the virus,” she wrote.

“This crisis has only underscored the need for an accurate count - so that resources can be appropriately and quickly distributed in an emergency. However, as things currently stand, those districts hit the hardest by COVID-19, those districts which already suffer greatest from structural racism and inequity, stand to be the most undercounted,” she added.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/492093-ocasio-cortez-calls-for-extending-census-period

Not a bad idea.

I think they should extend the self-response period well into the fall and keep on advertising until then.

Then, the census takers should hit the road in the fall and the redistricting data should be delayed until summer next year to give the CB more time to process the results.

Reference Day was April 1, so memories will fade as more time goes by ... but during Coronavirus not many people are going to be evicted anyway over the next months, or move to other places. So, the integrity could be guaranteed.

Besides, AOCs claim that response rates are down from 2010 is a bit early because there are different dynamics at play this year (most respond earlier and online, while there is a 2nd wave of mail-in questionnaires coming back soon).

The Census is not comprehensive. It is basically a headcount. It doesn't show any information about income, jobs, education, citizenship, etc. At best getting an accurate frame of addresses will improve the sampling for the ACS.

The self-response rate is only going to creep up. The reason they initially intended to start the NRFU on May 13, was that by then they were simply not going to be getting any more responses two weeks after the 5th mailing.

If they get 0.5% for the next 35 days that will put them around 63%, which is about the same as 2010 after you account for the difference in denominators.

[jimrtex]

I was comparing Texas daily returns with those for Minnesota. It closely followed the same pattern with peak days, etc., but with fewer responses every day.

For example, the peak day for both was April 1, with Minnesota at 3.5% and Texas at 3.1%.

On April 5 and April 8, Texas was barely ahead of Minnesota (by 0.1%). This may be due to Texas having about 38% more non-respondents at this point.

Cities in Texas with more than 20,000, but 5% below the state average are:

Border cities: Pharr, Laredo, San Benito, Weslaco, San Juan, Harlingen, Brownsville, Mission, Edinburg, McAllen, Eagle Pass, and Del Rio.

College Cities: Huntsville (Sam); San Marcos (Colors Are All The Same (Youtube); Stephenville (Tarleton State); and Kingsville (Texas A&M Kingsville).

Nacogdoches (Steve); College Station (whoop); and Plainview (Wayland Baptist) are a bit low, but have other things going on in their economy.

Colleges shut down in early March. Spring break was typically the second week, and they told everyone not to come back.

Galveston: Lots of beach houses, and West End is mostly Update/Leave. Other smaller cities down on the coast (Rockport, Port Lavaca, etc.) are also low. Some of this may also be due to Harvey.

Big Spring. I'm not really sure why this is low. Perhaps it is oil field workers seeking affordable (or any housing). It is about 40 minutes from Midland. As a larger town, it has more of a housing base. Depending on fluctuations in work, it may have more vacancies. It also has some prisons. With a larger population on the interstate it isn't going to be crushed like some smaller towns where the prison is the only business.

[jimrtex]

It's really surprising to see Mississippi to even be on par with the national average. I wonder what could be driving up the state's responses up. Maybe using the internet more is giving the state a bigger boost relative to other states?

I think there may be an effort by the black churches to get response rates up, similar to Souls to the Polls. In Houston, response rates are clearly racial, but with black areas above Hispanic areas. Missouri City with a large black middle class is one of the better performing cities in Texas.

Lafayette (Oxford) and Oktibbeha (Starkville) are below their neighbors - this is about Mississippi, rather than blacks. I thought this may have been due to the shut down of campuses, but they appear to have been a tad lower in 2010 as well. Perhaps adults in their early 20s are less civically engaged even if they are going to a university.

[Tender Branson]

The Great Lakes/Midwest region and above average responses probably have to do with the large German/Swiss/Austrian/Scandinavian ancestry in that area ...

[Tender Branson]

47.1% (+0.4)

[Tender Branson]

47.5% (+0.4)

[jimrtex]

The best city is North River, North Dakota a small suburb north of Fargo, with around 55 people.

In 2010 there were 23 housing units, so we can assume a similar number now since the population is estimated to be unchanged.

The return rate of 91.3% is M/N where M and N are whole numbers (there are no fractional responses or housing units - a garage apartment is a whole housing unit, and the 13th and 14th amendments did away with fractional people).

The non-return rate of 8.7% is M'/N where M' = N-M and is also a whole number.

We can try various values of M' and test whether N is a whole number:

N = M'/8.7%.

If M' is 1, N is 11.494, which is not a whole number.
If M' is 2, N is 22.989, which is approximately a whole number.

Moreover, 2/23 is 8.7% rounded to 1/10 of a percent.

21 of 23 housing units have responded.

2 housing units may be vacant, are home to winter Arizonans/Texans/Floridians who have not returned for the Spring (who can blame them with 20 degree temperatures for midweek); or house social deviants who some would subject to $50,000 fines and 5-year prison citizens.

[jimrtex]

Texas has equal or outperformed Minnesota the last 6 days, as it has cut the differential from 14.2% to 13.9%.

[jimrtex]

McDowell, WV response.

Date	Cumulative	Daily
28-Mar	0.6%
29-Mar	0.6%	0.0%
30-Mar	1.0%	0.4%
1-Apr	2.0%	1.0%
2-Apr	2.2%	0.2%
3-Apr	2.6%	0.4%
4-Apr	2.7%	0.1%
5-Apr	2.7%	0.0%
6-Apr	2.8%	0.1%
7-Apr	2.9%	0.1%
8-Apr	2.9%	0.0%
9-Apr	3.0%	0.1%
10-Apr	3.1%	0.1%

It has always been possible for people to respond, even if they did not receive an invitation with a code. There may have been advertisement around Census Day (April 1) since responses quadrupled in a few days.

It is too early to determine whether sending invitations to update/leave areas has an effect. Mailing of questionnaires to Self-Response areas that had not responded began on April 8. The press release that announced that regularly scheduled program, briefly mentioned that Update/Leave areas will be sent an invitation, but gave no details.

Some areas where census takers were originally going to hand-deliver forms in person will now receive a letter in the mail from the Census Bureau reminding them to participate, .... Even if households don’t receive a letter in the mail, the Census Bureau will drop off a census invitation and paper form as soon as it is safe to do so. Census takers will also follow up with all households that do not respond on their own.

I started to see what happens when you respond to the Census without an invitation. One of the first questions asked said to enter a street address where you might have packages delivered, rather than a Rural Route Box number or Post Office Box where you receive mail. It also asked for a description of where you lived, which might be a way for people who don't live in an obviously residential setting, such as the back of a store, could be contacted. I didn't finish up, because it could be considered hacking (which it was, but in the good sense of the word) and some Australian might be egging them on to give me a 50.000€ fine or 5-year sentence in a correctional centre (gaol).

[Tender Branson]

McDowell, WV response.

Date	Cumulative	Daily
28-Mar	0.6%
29-Mar	0.6%	0.0%
30-Mar	1.0%	0.4%
1-Apr	2.0%	1.0%
2-Apr	2.2%	0.2%
3-Apr	2.6%	0.4%
4-Apr	2.7%	0.1%
5-Apr	2.7%	0.0%
6-Apr	2.8%	0.1%
7-Apr	2.9%	0.1%
8-Apr	2.9%	0.0%
9-Apr	3.0%	0.1%
10-Apr	3.1%	0.1%

It has always been possible for people to respond, even if they did not receive an invitation with a code. There may have been advertisement around Census Day (April 1) since responses quadrupled in a few days.

It is too early to determine whether sending invitations to update/leave areas has an effect. Mailing of questionnaires to Self-Response areas that had not responded began on April 8. The press release that announced that regularly scheduled program, briefly mentioned that Update/Leave areas will be sent an invitation, but gave no details.

Some areas where census takers were originally going to hand-deliver forms in person will now receive a letter in the mail from the Census Bureau reminding them to participate, .... Even if households don’t receive a letter in the mail, the Census Bureau will drop off a census invitation and paper form as soon as it is safe to do so. Census takers will also follow up with all households that do not respond on their own.

I started to see what happens when you respond to the Census without an invitation. One of the first questions asked said to enter a street address where you might have packages delivered, rather than a Rural Route Box number or Post Office Box where you receive mail. It also asked for a description of where you lived, which might be a way for people who don't live in an obviously residential setting, such as the back of a store, could be contacted. I didn't finish up, because it could be considered hacking (which it was, but in the good sense of the word) and some Australian might be egging them on to give me a 50.000€ fine or 5-year sentence in a correctional centre (gaol).

Austrian.

Good to see you tried getting this information. As long as you didn’t send off your attempt, everything is fine. When I tried filling out the Census questionnaire from here (abroad), it wouldn’t let me. There seems to be an IP-blocker.

Which leads me to the question:

How do Americans respond who are temporarily abroad for some months for work ?

They would usually get a mail with an ID code in their US home.

If they try filling it out online abroad, they cannot access. They have only the chance to:

A) use a VPN to simulate a US IP address
B) fill things out when they are home again/wait for the census taker

Also: there are 5-10 million American citizens living abroad. But they won’t get counted, because they do not „live in the US for most of the time“ on April 1.

[Tender Branson]

I'm tracking state returns every 10 days now in my Excel table.

MI is the only state so far that has reached 80%+ of its final 2010 rate.

MI will probably be the 1st state to top its final 2010 rate by the end of April already.

WA, UT, VA, NV and CO are not that far behind though with 76-79% of their 2010 rates already in.

Some of them had faster increases than MI between the 10-day period March 31-April 10.

If the trend keeps up (especially with mail questionnaire returns later on), they all might end up higher than 2010 already in late April, early May ...

At the other end, you have AK and WV - who both are below 60% of their final 2010 rates.

[Tender Branson]

WA and CO had the biggest increases in the past 10 days with 16% each (relative to their final 2010 rate).

You can clearly see that tech-affiliated states with an educated, younger population and with good internet access had a good headstart with the new online component.

Let's see how the paper questionnaires change this ... I expect old voters to return this more in the coming weeks, pushing up the rates everywhere - but more so in the currently lagging states.

[Tender Branson]

Coronavirus seems to have no impact at all on returns.

NY, NJ, MI, LA are the worst affected states - but MI is actually the top-performer so far, having the best response relative to their 2010 numbers.

NY and NJ had normal increases over the past 10 days, nothing near the bottom. They had already low responses in 2010, but there is no drop-off of any sorts so far.

There's also no difference between Democratic or Republican states, for example UT performs really well, just like ID. As do IN or KY (KY had one of the biggest increases in the past 10 days along with the young/educated/tech-crazy CO, WA, VA).

Hispanic areas are lagging behind a bit though, especially in TX.

[Tender Branson]

47.9% (+0.4)

More than half of American households (75 million) will have responded by next Sunday.

[Tender Branson]

Los Alamos County (NM) is one of the 5 best-performing counties in the US so far, nearing 70% response.

New Mexico as a whole is the 3rd laziest state and could soon be overtaken even by WV (which had the biggest daily gain yesterday (+0.8%) - double the national increase.

[jimrtex]

I started to see what happens when you respond to the Census without an invitation. One of the first questions asked said to enter a street address where you might have packages delivered, rather than a Rural Route Box number or Post Office Box where you receive mail. It also asked for a description of where you lived, which might be a way for people who don't live in an obviously residential setting, such as the back of a store, could be contacted. I didn't finish up, because it could be considered hacking (which it was, but in the good sense of the word) and some Australian might be egging them on to give me a 50.000€ fine or 5-year sentence in a correctional centre (gaol).

Austrian.

Good to see you tried getting this information. As long as you didn’t send off your attempt, everything is fine. When I tried filling out the Census questionnaire from here (abroad), it wouldn’t let me. There seems to be an IP-blocker.

Which leads me to the question:

How do Americans respond who are temporarily abroad for some months for work ?

They would usually get a mail with an ID code in their US home.

If they try filling it out online abroad, they cannot access. They have only the chance to:

A) use a VPN to simulate a US IP address
B) fill things out when they are home again/wait for the census taker

Also: there are 5-10 million American citizens living abroad. But they won’t get counted, because they do not „live in the US for most of the time“ on April 1.

öezzie öezzie öezzie öi öi öi

I don't know about those who are visiting another country for work or recreation. The census materials are non-forwardable. They could probably contact a consul for assistance, but I suspect many will not be informed.

Incidentally, I know someone who had just begin studying in Australia (for the fall term, since they do things upside down), who has now been repatriated, and is in quarantine in the basement of someone else's house.

If she were still in Australia, she would not be counted in the US Census. But I think she is still doing classwork online. So is her being outside Australia considered to be temporary, similar to if she were on summer break? And is her place of quarantine a usual place of residence, or just where she was on April 1. I don't know the precise timing, so we can assume she boarded a plane on April 1, and was in Hawaii on March 31, and back on the mainland on April 1.

US Government employees, both military and civilian, and any dependents living with them are counted in the US Census - but government records are used. They are also attributed to states for purposes of apportionment of representatives, but not for redistricting. Except for 2020, military personnel who are deployed abroad are treated differently than those stationed abroad.

On the other hand, Congress requires that persons living abroad be permitted to vote in federal elections. So a person might not count when representatives are apportioned, but can vote for those representatives.

This was an issue back after the 2000 Census when Utah and North Carolina were contesting for the 435th seat. North Carolina has a considerable military presence (Fort Bragg and Camp Lejeune ), while Utah had lots of LDS missionaries who were not counted.

Congress directed the Census Bureau to examine whether overseas civilians (which in US-speak includes Mexico) could be counted in the Census. Congress writes the Census Law so they could require that such people could be counted. The Census Bureau found it would be hard to do since there are not records (you don't need a passport to leave the US - you may need one to get back in), and they were dubious of organizations such as the LDS providing the information.

If the US had a registry, they would have a record of these persons. Census forms could be sent to them. It would also facilitate voting. If someone moved between state and updated their address, they could automatically be registered at their new home, and de-registered at their previous home. They would also have an ID. Those living overseas could vote in person at embassies, consuls, military bases, and other locations. ID's could be checked, and the ballots collected and sent back securely to the US. This would also eliminate the need to mail out ballots 6-1/2 weeks before an election.

[jimrtex]

WA and CO had the biggest increases in the past 10 days with 16% each (relative to their final 2010 rate).

You can clearly see that tech-affiliated states with an educated, younger population and with good internet access had a good headstart with the new online component.

Let's see how the paper questionnaires change this ... I expect old voters to return this more in the coming weeks, pushing up the rates everywhere - but more so in the currently lagging states.

Perhaps. But remember in Audubon County, IA, which had the highest response rate in the state (this may still be true) most were questionnaires. One metric used to determine whether to send out paper forms was the percentage of older persons in the population.

[DINGO Joe]

I'm just curious, does anyone know how prisoners are counted?  I mean are they expected to fill out their own responses or does the facility just provide the info or who is there on April 1.

[Tender Branson]

I'm just curious, does anyone know how prisoners are counted?  I mean are they expected to fill out their own responses or does the facility just provide the info or who is there on April 1.

They are not filling out the questionnaire on their own.

Each prison submits the number and demographic data of their current inmates as of April 1 to the CB, mostly by internet.

Prisoners are counted as residents of the county they are imprisoned in on April 1, not the place of their previous residence. This is international standard.

[Tender Branson]

48.1% (+0.2)

That’s a painfully slow daily increase.