The Official 2020 Census Thread

[cinyc]

Thanks. I think my dates are off by 1 compared to Census - my dates are the dates Census released the data, not the date of the data (there's a 15-hour lag or so).

I'll work on this tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

Thanks. I think my dates are off by 1 compared to Census - my dates are the dates Census released the data, not the date of the data (there's a 15-hour lag or so).

I'll work on this tomorrow.

Yeah, the submitted daily data needs to be processed and gets released the next day.

Anyway, with 45% today - and about 135 days left to submit until mid-August, the daily average would have to be +0.22 to reach 75%.

[Tender Branson]

Daily update:

45.1% (+0.6)

VA joins MN, WI and MI as blue states on the map, indicating 51%+ response.

[cinyc]

Daily update:

45.1% (+0.6)

VA joins MN, WI and MI as blue states on the map, indicating 51%+ response.

Yeah - NOVA has really been filling out their forms quickly.

I've updated the maps with today's data and added the vs. Nationwide comparison maps.

Now, if I can only figure out which states have County Sub Data, I can add County Sub and Incorporated Place maps.

[GP270watch]

If you answer online can you skip questions or does it have a bunch of annoying must fill answer fields that you can normally skip on the paper census.

[Tender Branson]

If you answer online can you skip questions or does it have a bunch of annoying must fill answer fields that you can normally skip on the paper census.

The online form is the same as for paper and phone ... and it's quite short and basic.

You can complete it in 5-10 minutes.

The long-form doesn't exist anymore in the 10-year census and was replaced by the annual American Community Survey, which only a handful of US households answer each year (= sample).

[cinyc]

I added the interactive map Tender was probably really looking for - 2020 Response rate minus 66.5%, the 2010 Final Nationwide Mail in Rate. (See, for example, 4/1-6-->Apr 6-->Tract vs 10 NW.

So now, not only can you compare how a tract/county/CD is doing vs its own 2010 Final Self-Response Rate, but 2010 overall, too.

The simple red/blue heatmap of the current day's 2020 reporting rate vs the nationwide 2020 reporting rate is under, for example, 4/1-6-->Apr 6-->Tract vs NW.

I had to move the probably less-viewed red-toned raw 2020/2010 reporting rate maps to their own tabs.

[Tender Branson]

45.7% today (+0.6)

Hopefully the paper questionnaires will lead to a boost next week ...

[cinyc]

I updated the maps with today's data and added incorporated place versions of the maps. The Place maps under the 3/31 A and 4/1-7 A tabs.

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/population-change/tract-population-change/2-uncategorized/52-2020-vs-2010-census-response-rate-mutlimap

County subs/MCDs are next in the 20 or so states that Census provides data for them - probably tomorrow.

[cinyc]

I changed the Place maps to show the combined Counties, County Subs (MCDs) and Places that usually appear on my Incorporated Place Population Change maps. Unlike those maps, the County and County Sub (MCD) data includes the mapped Places, because unlike in the Incorporated Place Pop change data, there is no remainder-of-County/County Sub data available.

As with the incorporated place pop change maps, the data is more rich in the Northeast and Midwest than it is in the rest of the country.

The only thing I haven't mapped are tribal tracts, but getting the 2010 version of that data is nearly impossible. You have to search for it in the Census api by Reservation. Way too much work.

[Tender Branson]

45.7% today (+0.6)

Hopefully the paper questionnaires will lead to a boost next week ...

46.2% today (+0.5)

Getting slower and slower ...

[Tender Branson]

Delivery of 2020 Census Paper Questionnaires Begin

April 8, 2020 – About 64 million households across the nation are receiving a paper questionnaire in the coming days as the U.S. Census Bureau continues to ensure responding to the census is easier than ever.

Of the nation’s households, 46.2% have already responded to the 2020 Census. The remaining households will receive a paper questionnaire starting April 8.

“If you’re among the nearly half of all the nation’s households that have responded already, thank you!” said Census Bureau Director Dr. Steven Dillingham. “It has never been easier to respond on your own, whether online at 2020census.gov, over the phone, or by mail — all without having to meet a census taker. It’s something everyone can do while practicing social distancing at home to make a difference today, tomorrow and the next 10 years.”

While nearly half of all households have responded online to the 2020 Census, some may prefer to receive a paper questionnaire. About 22% of the country received a paper form at the beginning of the census.

Some areas where census takers were originally going to hand-deliver forms in person will now receive a letter in the mail from the Census Bureau reminding them to participate, including many households in Puerto Rico. Even if households don’t receive a letter in the mail, the Census Bureau will drop off a census invitation and paper form as soon as it is safe to do so. Census takers will also follow up with all households that do not respond on their own.

Households receiving the paper questionnaire can still respond online or by phone, or they can return it by mail in the enclosed envelope. They can choose to respond online at 2020census.gov in English or 12 other languages, or receive assistance through language guides and videos available in 59 languages. When you respond online, use the Census ID from the letter or provide your address.

“Once you have responded, please encourage your family, friends and loved ones to complete the census too,” Dillingham said.

The public should respond for the number of people living at that address as of April 1. Responding now to the 2020 Census will minimize the need for a census taker to follow up and visit your home in person later this year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/delivery-of-2020-census-paper-questionnaires.html

I think they should write „50.000$ fine if you do not respond“ onto the envelope.

[GP270watch]

If you answer online can you skip questions or does it have a bunch of annoying must fill answer fields that you can normally skip on the paper census.

The online form is the same as for paper and phone ... and it's quite short and basic.

You can complete it in 5-10 minutes.

The long-form doesn't exist anymore in the 10-year census and was replaced by the annual American Community Survey, which only a handful of US households answer each year (= sample).

 I did it online. I did get to skip questions but only after clicking through twice. The Census was very short and I hope this means I'm not bothered with any followup.

[Tender Branson]

If you answer online can you skip questions or does it have a bunch of annoying must fill answer fields that you can normally skip on the paper census.

The online form is the same as for paper and phone ... and it's quite short and basic.

You can complete it in 5-10 minutes.

The long-form doesn't exist anymore in the 10-year census and was replaced by the annual American Community Survey, which only a handful of US households answer each year (= sample).

 I did it online. I did get to skip questions but only after clicking through twice. The Census was very short and I hope this means I'm not bothered with any followup.

Your entries are checked by an algorithm for flawed entries, for example if you typed in your age as 169 years old or entered „Borg“ as your race or „Ferengi“ as your ancestry, it is likely that you still get visited by a census taker in the fall.

On the other hand, this is secondary of importance to the Census Bureau. They are more concerned with visiting those households where nothing came back to them ... despite 5 letters and repeat letters to respond.

[Tender Branson]

46.2% today (+0.5)

Getting slower and slower ...

A look at the states:

25 states have higher response rates than the US as a whole (led by MN, 10% higher).

25 states + DC are lower than the national average (worst: AK, 16% lower)

CA and SD most closely mirror the US (46.1% and 46.2%).

MS, which long used to be far ahead of the US average, has now fallen behind and trails the nation by 1%.

On the other hand, technology-affiliated states like WA or VA are doing well (especially educated areas and suburbs).

UT is also doing well, I read somewhere that UT has good internet access.

[cinyc]

45.7% today (+0.6)

Hopefully the paper questionnaires will lead to a boost next week ...

46.2% today (+0.5)

Getting slower and slower ...

Part of the problem is that the usual knock-and-drop operations in rural and other areas are currently on hold due to the coronavirus.

[jimrtex]

Delivery of 2020 Census Paper Questionnaires Begin

April 8, 2020 – About 64 million households across the nation are receiving a paper questionnaire in the coming days as the U.S. Census Bureau continues to ensure responding to the census is easier than ever.

Of the nation’s households, 46.2% have already responded to the 2020 Census. The remaining households will receive a paper questionnaire starting April 8.

“If you’re among the nearly half of all the nation’s households that have responded already, thank you!” said Census Bureau Director Dr. Steven Dillingham. “It has never been easier to respond on your own, whether online at 2020census.gov, over the phone, or by mail — all without having to meet a census taker. It’s something everyone can do while practicing social distancing at home to make a difference today, tomorrow and the next 10 years.”

While nearly half of all households have responded online to the 2020 Census, some may prefer to receive a paper questionnaire. About 22% of the country received a paper form at the beginning of the census.

Some areas where census takers were originally going to hand-deliver forms in person will now receive a letter in the mail from the Census Bureau reminding them to participate, including many households in Puerto Rico. Even if households don’t receive a letter in the mail, the Census Bureau will drop off a census invitation and paper form as soon as it is safe to do so. Census takers will also follow up with all households that do not respond on their own.

Households receiving the paper questionnaire can still respond online or by phone, or they can return it by mail in the enclosed envelope. They can choose to respond online at 2020census.gov in English or 12 other languages, or receive assistance through language guides and videos available in 59 languages. When you respond online, use the Census ID from the letter or provide your address.

“Once you have responded, please encourage your family, friends and loved ones to complete the census too,” Dillingham said.

The public should respond for the number of people living at that address as of April 1. Responding now to the 2020 Census will minimize the need for a census taker to follow up and visit your home in person later this year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/delivery-of-2020-census-paper-questionnaires.html

I think they should write „50.000$ fine if you do not respond“ onto the envelope.

I don't know if you noticed the portion of the news release that I placed in bold. It has always been possible to respond by internet, even without an invitation. There is likely some negotiation over your address.

The envelope says: (in a box with a black border).

YOUR RESPONSE IS
REQUIRED BY LAW

SU RESPUESTA ES
REQUERIDA POR LEY

The UK got out of the EU just in time, before they could start imposing periods where commas belong, and vice versa, inverted quotes, and suffixing the eurodollar sign.

[Tender Branson]

I know that the envelope says: „Your response is required by law“.

But many people don’t care.

That’s why they should additionally print „You will face a 50.000$ fine or 5 years imprisonment if you do not fill out your form“.

In this case, people would „get it“.

[Tender Branson]

45.7% today (+0.6)

Hopefully the paper questionnaires will lead to a boost next week ...

46.2% today (+0.5)

Getting slower and slower ...

Part of the problem is that the usual knock-and-drop operations in rural and other areas are currently on hold due to the coronavirus.

Not really.

Update/leave operations are only for 4.5% of all US households.

95.5% of the households have already received an invitation to respond, and more than half of them didn’t so far.

There should be stricter sanctions for those lazy folks, such as harsh monetary fines or prison terms.

Civil society should not only have privileges and rights but also duties.

Demanding that a household owner fills out a census form every 10 years is not something that is soooo tough to do ...

[jimrtex]

I know that the envelope says: „Your response is required by law“.

But many people don’t care.

That’s why they should additionally print „You will face a 50.000$ fine or 5 years imprisonment if you do not fill out your form“.

In this case, people would „get it“.

I don't get this $50 fine.

[jimrtex]

Delivery of 2020 Census Paper Questionnaires Begin

April 8, 2020 – About 64 million households across the nation are receiving a paper questionnaire in the coming days as the U.S. Census Bureau continues to ensure responding to the census is easier than ever.

Of the nation’s households, 46.2% have already responded to the 2020 Census. The remaining households will receive a paper questionnaire starting April 8.

“If you’re among the nearly half of all the nation’s households that have responded already, thank you!” said Census Bureau Director Dr. Steven Dillingham. “It has never been easier to respond on your own, whether online at 2020census.gov, over the phone, or by mail — all without having to meet a census taker. It’s something everyone can do while practicing social distancing at home to make a difference today, tomorrow and the next 10 years.”

While nearly half of all households have responded online to the 2020 Census, some may prefer to receive a paper questionnaire. About 22% of the country received a paper form at the beginning of the census.

Some areas where census takers were originally going to hand-deliver forms in person will now receive a letter in the mail from the Census Bureau reminding them to participate, including many households in Puerto Rico. Even if households don’t receive a letter in the mail, the Census Bureau will drop off a census invitation and paper form as soon as it is safe to do so. Census takers will also follow up with all households that do not respond on their own.

Households receiving the paper questionnaire can still respond online or by phone, or they can return it by mail in the enclosed envelope. They can choose to respond online at 2020census.gov in English or 12 other languages, or receive assistance through language guides and videos available in 59 languages. When you respond online, use the Census ID from the letter or provide your address.

“Once you have responded, please encourage your family, friends and loved ones to complete the census too,” Dillingham said.

The public should respond for the number of people living at that address as of April 1. Responding now to the 2020 Census will minimize the need for a census taker to follow up and visit your home in person later this year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/delivery-of-2020-census-paper-questionnaires.html

You may have missed the part I highlighted.

They are going to mail out invitations in the update/leave areas.

[Tender Branson]

I know that the envelope says: „Your response is required by law“.

But many people don’t care.

That’s why they should additionally print „You will face a 50.000$ fine or 5 years imprisonment if you do not fill out your form“.

In this case, people would „get it“.

I don't get this $50 fine.

50k $ !



People would think twice about skipping this decade-only survey, if they had to pay most of their annual salary or face a multi-year prison sentence ...

[Tender Branson]

You may have missed the part I highlighted.

They are going to mail out invitations in the update/leave areas.

I have not missed it.

It's good that they are mailing it out now, but of what use is it ? As you said, most of these places have no mail box. It's better to follow up in person during the fall and count those places.

Anyway, the mail questionnaires are going out between April 8-16, which means it takes another week or so for people to fill them out, send them back and be processed.

Any spike in responses will likely only show up at the end of April ... but I have hope that 70% can still be reached with this second wave.

[Tender Branson]

46.7% today (+0.5)

If the average stays that way, the 2010 rate will be surpassed in 40 days.

[jimrtex]

What is the most likely scenario after May, when the online/mail/phone response dries up and around 75% of households have responded ?

Will the Census Bureau just wait until the Coronavirus is over in the US by September/October and only then send out their census takers for the non-response households ?

Will they do earlier in June/July, but with protection gear ?

Will they send additional mail reminders in June, July and August - that were previously not planned ?

Will they try calling non-responding households ? But where do they get the phone numbers from ?

More TV ads ? More digital ads ?

The original Non-Response Follow Up (NRFU) was scheduled from May 13-July 31. The first delay in field operation pushed this back two weeks to end August 14. I don't know whether the second delay added another two weeks. The country is broken down into Basic Collection Units which can be assigned to a single enumerator. It is apparently quite modular, with assignments made electronically, with the enumerators given optimized routing, and predictions of best contact time, so that it might be possible to hire more workers. Training can be done online, and I think there can even be flexible hours.

The Self-Response areas have been going to schedule.

March 12-20 1st Letter.
March 16-24 2nd Letter.
March 26-April 3 Post Card (for non-respondents)
April 8-16 Questionnaire (for non-respondents)
April 20-27 Final post card.

The mail-outs are spread out over several days, to prevent overloading of census servers. The USPS was told to spread out delivery. I assume that those who got the first letter on March 12 got their second on March 16.

There was a definite drop-off after completion of the second mailing. The postcard (3rd mailing) may have helped sustain returns, and happened during the surge around the official April 1st Census Day. Since then returns have really fell off a cliff, around 0.5% per day.

Paper forms are now being mailed out to areas that were Internet only.

There will be a final postcard beginning April 20 reminding people that it is not too late.

The original NRFU was 1-1/2 months after the Census Date, and now will begin at least two months afterwards. You will be getting the new tenant in an apartment who has lived there for two months, and nobody will really remember the previous tenant. You could probably track them down with an investigation - but that is too expensive.

Other activities that have been delayed are the count of people living rough, which was scheduled for April 1. People in transitory housing such as RV Parks and hotels (April 9-May 4). Early NRFU which was scheduled to begin on April 9 in areas around college campuses. Obviously it was in April to catch college students before they left. But they left in March, and won't be around in May or June. Group quarters such as college dorms.

Maybe they can complete enough to do an apportionment count, then have a 2021 Census (paid as part of a stimulus bill). The apportionment could be done with a hold harmless, so no state lost a representative as a result of a second apportionment.