Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[Bidenworth2020]

I think the VP being “too old” is a weak attack. Does anyone really want Biden handpicking the next leader of the party? A Biden-Warren ticket could get us out of the mess of the last 4 years and set us on a path forward, then hand the baton off to whatever younger Democrat wins the *competitive and open* primaries next cycle.

Vice-President Harris/Klobuchar/Cortez-Masto immediately become the front runners for nominee in 2024. We were robbed a wide-open race this year by Biden and Bernie, they should let us have one next time so we can actually have an election that decides where we want to go as a party.

I disagree, Biden is a white man and people project what they want (positively) on him. He has working class credentials with low income, non college whites, inoffensive to white suburban women, and close ties to the Black community with his long relationships with CBC members and standing by President Obama.

Someone could easily get into the 2024 primary and run up the Black and youth vote vs Klobuchar, or run up the rural/WWC vote against Harris. Neither would be guaranteed the nomination IMO

It's unlikely that the same candidate would get the youth vote and the 30+ Black vote. AA keep supporting establishment candidates and most young voters back anti-establishment candidates. The Dems don't have that much rural and WWC support left, and it'll only decline further. The big groups in the next primary will be Hispanics/Asians/non-AA blacks; PMC suburbanites (mainly white, but not exclusively); and AAs. If Harris can keep the two last ones she will be unbeatable unless the PMC starts drifting back to the GOP. Non-AA PoC and young whites and (to a lesser degree) AAs will form the core of the progressive coalition, but still won't be a majority. If a progressive candidate can add enough low income whites to that coalition he/she may win, but that's going to be very hard.

I mean...there is a candidate that could get both the AA vote and the youth vote, but she is the ultimate dark horse. Pressely is a freshman and lacks legislative credentials, but she does have some leadership experience from Boston. She doesn't come from a swing state, but she has key ties to both groups. However, she is the ultimate dark horse and her selection would be more in line with Romney's choice of Ryan. Biden would need to have full trust of Warren and Kerry, probably requiring Kerry to be on the vetting committee, in order to push her forwards.

I don’t want any candidate to have a leg-up next time around. The blacks are gonna fall in line behind whoever the VP is because they vote establishment. Doubly so if Harris is the pick. I, and I think most people, would just prefer a primary with no obvious front runner.

Yeah, this is a big concern (broadly speaking). The Democratic Party over the past several years has really become the party that "falls in line" rather than the one that "falls in love" (and of course, the GOP has flipped from "line" to "love" as well). Black voters have always fell in line, but given their relatively small share of the party, that was at least something that could be feasibly usurped (though the last time that happened was 1988). They aren't the problem in the present day. The major change is all of these other groups (i.e. the white wealthy educated types who think of themselves as so well-informed) who create an unassailable coalition.

If Biden picks somebody like Harris, then potentially the next 12-16 years of the Democratic Party's presidential candidates are set in stone. Might as well just abolish primaries and give the power back to the county, state and/or national committee members like in the "good ol' days" at the rate we're heading. It's obvious campaign spending and infrastructure are increasingly meaningless: why go through this big charade if this is the path of the future? For an illusion of choice?

Why would you support Abrams then?

[Adam Griffin]

I think the VP being “too old” is a weak attack. Does anyone really want Biden handpicking the next leader of the party? A Biden-Warren ticket could get us out of the mess of the last 4 years and set us on a path forward, then hand the baton off to whatever younger Democrat wins the *competitive and open* primaries next cycle.

Vice-President Harris/Klobuchar/Cortez-Masto immediately become the front runners for nominee in 2024. We were robbed a wide-open race this year by Biden and Bernie, they should let us have one next time so we can actually have an election that decides where we want to go as a party.

I disagree, Biden is a white man and people project what they want (positively) on him. He has working class credentials with low income, non college whites, inoffensive to white suburban women, and close ties to the Black community with his long relationships with CBC members and standing by President Obama.

Someone could easily get into the 2024 primary and run up the Black and youth vote vs Klobuchar, or run up the rural/WWC vote against Harris. Neither would be guaranteed the nomination IMO

It's unlikely that the same candidate would get the youth vote and the 30+ Black vote. AA keep supporting establishment candidates and most young voters back anti-establishment candidates. The Dems don't have that much rural and WWC support left, and it'll only decline further. The big groups in the next primary will be Hispanics/Asians/non-AA blacks; PMC suburbanites (mainly white, but not exclusively); and AAs. If Harris can keep the two last ones she will be unbeatable unless the PMC starts drifting back to the GOP. Non-AA PoC and young whites and (to a lesser degree) AAs will form the core of the progressive coalition, but still won't be a majority. If a progressive candidate can add enough low income whites to that coalition he/she may win, but that's going to be very hard.

I mean...there is a candidate that could get both the AA vote and the youth vote, but she is the ultimate dark horse. Pressely is a freshman and lacks legislative credentials, but she does have some leadership experience from Boston. She doesn't come from a swing state, but she has key ties to both groups. However, she is the ultimate dark horse and her selection would be more in line with Romney's choice of Ryan. Biden would need to have full trust of Warren and Kerry, probably requiring Kerry to be on the vetting committee, in order to push her forwards.

I don’t want any candidate to have a leg-up next time around. The blacks are gonna fall in line behind whoever the VP is because they vote establishment. Doubly so if Harris is the pick. I, and I think most people, would just prefer a primary with no obvious front runner.

Yeah, this is a big concern (broadly speaking). The Democratic Party over the past several years has really become the party that "falls in line" rather than the one that "falls in love" (and of course, the GOP has flipped from "line" to "love" as well). Black voters have always fell in line, but given their relatively small share of the party, that was at least something that could be feasibly usurped (though the last time that happened was 1988). They aren't the problem in the present day. The major change is all of these other groups (i.e. the white wealthy educated types who think of themselves as so well-informed) who create an unassailable coalition.

If Biden picks somebody like Harris, then potentially the next 12-16 years of the Democratic Party's presidential candidates are set in stone. Might as well just abolish primaries and give the power back to the county, state and/or national committee members like in the "good ol' days" at the rate we're heading. It's obvious campaign spending and infrastructure are increasingly meaningless: why go through this big charade if this is the path of the future? For an illusion of choice?

Why would you support Abrams then?

Setting aside the reality and likely future regardless of my preferences and all of the benefits I believe she brings to the table electorally that I've outlined, she's simply the best long-term choice among a slew of less-than-ideal choices: somebody who can actually mobilize black voters, increases the clout of my home state long-term, avoids a retread gubernatorial election where every non-metro county votes 104% for Kemp, etc.

[libertpaulian]

With Kim Jong-un either dead or on death's door, Biden's VP is going to need EXPERIENCE.  His VP list just got shorter.

[Bidenworth2020]

With Kim Jong-un either dead or on death's door, Biden's VP is going to need EXPERIENCE.  His VP list just got shorter.

What does this have to do with anything lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its Warren, Dems have enough seats in contention that a special election might night determine control of the Senate if they win MT, GA and KS, and Pressley and/or Joe Kennedy want Warren's senate seat. The reporting on Warren being selected is true.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Liz Warren was in a good spot in terms of ideology. Warren was far enough to the left to win over Bernie supporters, but moderate enough to win over Biden and other establishment/moderate types. Warren is too much of a boring technocrat and is not charismatic or likable. It would be a bad idea for Biden to choose Warren.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Liz Warren was in a good spot in terms of ideology. Warren was far enough to the left to win over Bernie supporters, but moderate enough to win over Biden and other establishment/moderate types. Warren is too much of a boring technocrat and is not charismatic or likable. It would be a bad idea for Biden to choose Warren.

She  is a strong debator and would last in a debate with Pence; consequently,  if COV-19 slows down in the Fall, she is a consumer rights advocate and can beat Trump and Pence over the head with impeachment and corruption,  that Trump still believes is a hoax. His two lawyers Stone and Manafort are in jail. But, Hilary and Benghazi wasnt a hoax

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Would I be correct in assuming the top 5 are:
Warren
Harris
Klobuchar
Abrams
Lance-Bottoms or Cortez-Masto?

With more serious consideration of:
Warren
Harris
Klobuchar

[dunceDude]

The FiveThirtyEight podcast's take on the Veep candidates (they ran out of time for more):

- Klobuchar: safe, midwestern, white. Minnesota was only D+1.5 in '16, which gets lost in the conversation at times. One interesting thought — black voters voted for Biden for electability/pragmatism and he won commandingly, so while a safe white VP doesn't have idpol representation, it's a doubling down on the strategy that won that community's votes.

- Harris: Is Harris a paper tiger rejected by both the left and black voters, or the perfect VP pick? Has more potential with the left than Klobuchar certainly, but still a safe choice. Silver sees Klob and Harris as most likely, predicts a do-no-harm choice from Biden.

- Warren: High risk, high reward. Polarizing. 70, but remember that in primary polls about being too old, she never drew near the worry that Biden or Sanders got. Ready for the job on day one without a doubt. Is she too "big" a name and too affiliated with a certain strategy? (i.e. gutting her enemies live on national TV)

- Whitmer: Somewhere between Harris/Klob and Warren in terms of risk. Her profile rose on coronavirus, for better or worse. Current polling indicates better (she's 'winning' her high profile fight with Trump) but should something about Michigan's response falter or look bad in hindsight, she might suffer. 1.5 years of governor experience.

---

Today I started to warm to Whitmer. We have 6-8 weeks to continue to evaluate her coronavirus response. I could not imagine someone better to appeal to suburban ex-GOP moms. She could nearly take Michigan off the board for Trump and provide insurance for Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, the most vulnerable Dem senator not named Doug Jones, with effects on the margin in Wisconsin as well. I think experience as a governor buffs against sexist impressions more than being a senator. She's just experienced enough to not raise doubts but hasn't got a long record to run against. If she becomes a frontrunner in 2024, she'll still be from Michigan and increase odds of retaining the White House.

That last point is more important than you might think. This is an awkward decade for Dems as they shift away from the rust belt and towards Georgia, Arizona, and Texas. Once those latter states are blue leaning, the worst parts of the GOP platform become much less electorally incentivized (anti-immigrant and anti-Mexico sentiment is highest in the rust belt if I remember correctly, and Michigan/Wisconsin are <5% Latino). I'm not checking my exact figures here, but I believe the US is becoming approximately 1.3% more non-white every year.

Essentially, if someone can hold the midwest until 2028 or 2032, the GOP's racist electoral strategy breaks and they can no longer count on whites voting as an interest group to save them in the electoral college. Imagine an election where the GOP is trying to court moderate Latinos in Maricopa county instead of the all-elusive white swing voter in Wisconsin. Someone just has to bridge the gap until that happens.

[wbrocks67]

It would be a bad look for Whitmer to ditch Michigan during/right after a pandemic for the VP slot imo

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer isnt gonna be Veep and Harris already said she wants to stay in Senate, its Warren. Abrams is too inexperienced as well

[Lord Halifax]

Would I be correct in assuming the top 5 are:
Warren
Harris
Klobuchar
Abrams
Lance-Bottoms or Cortez-Masto?

With more serious consideration of:
Warren
Harris
Klobuchar

I doubt Abrams is being considered anymore.

[RedPrometheus]

Whitmer isnt gonna be Veep and Harris already said she wants to stay in Senate, its Warren. Abrams is too inexperienced as well

When did Harris say that?

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/tperry518/status/1252580201437028358?s=20

[wbrocks67]

I think if I had to put % right now, it would be:

75% chance: Kamla
20% chance: Klobuchar
5% chance: anyone else

[Illini Moderate]

Blacks will fall behind Warren, we need Pressley and Joe in Senate

Can you stop referring to black people as "blacks"?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Blacks will fall behind Warren, we need Pressley and Joe in Senate

Can you stop referring to black people as "blacks"?

No, referring to demographic groups like that is an Atlas-ism that dates to before both our times here. For eternity these groups will always be referred to as “the olds, the young’s, the gays, and the blacks”

[Mr. Morden]

Biden says he'd pick Michelle Obama as his running mate, but he doesn't think she'd say yes:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/493830-biden-says-he-would-pick-michelle-obama-as-running-mate-in-a-heartbeat

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden said in a new interview that he would have no hesitation picking former first lady Michelle Obama to be his running mate, but added that he doubts she is interested in the position.

“I’d take her in a heartbeat,” Biden told Pittsburgh’s KDKA on Monday when asked if he’d choose Obama if she said she would be willing to be on the ticket with him.

“She’s brilliant. She knows the way around. She is a really fine woman. The Obamas are great friends,” Biden added.

Biden, however, said that he doesn’t think she is interested in the position.

“I don’t think she has any desire to live near the White House again,” he said.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer isnt gonna be Veep and Harris already said she wants to stay in Senate, its Warren. Abrams is too inexperienced as well

When did Harris say that?

She said on Sharpton she is focused on her state of California and helping the people in her own state than being Veep. She also ran for Prez and didnt run for Veep. She isnt gonna go out and say that she dont want the Veepstakes,  but the candidates are gonna say they are focused on running their own state. Just like Gretchen Whitmer said the samething on Maddow show.

Warren and Klobuchar are the finalists. There is nothing wrong with Warren being 70 and Biden 80; consequently,  Hilary was 70 in 2016 and Trump is 76 and Pence is 60 yrs old.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think if I had to put % right now, it would be:

75% chance: Kamla
20% chance: Klobuchar
5% chance: anyone else

That's probably the right order, but I think the gap between Harris and Klobuchar is a lot closer than that.  Maybe 60-35.

[Lord Halifax]

I think if I had to put % right now, it would be:

75% chance: Kamla
20% chance: Klobuchar
5% chance: anyone else

That's hopefully not true. Picking Harris or Klobuchar would be a mistake.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I told them that already, they dont like the fact Warren is elderly and Hilary Clinton was 70 and Pence and Trump are senior Citizens.  We will have our first Dem ticket that are seniors

[wbrocks67]

I think if I had to put % right now, it would be:

75% chance: Kamla
20% chance: Klobuchar
5% chance: anyone else

That's probably the right order, but I think the gap between Harris and Klobuchar is a lot closer than that.  Maybe 60-35.

You're right, it's probably closer to 60% Harris, 35% Klob, 5% someone else. Harris still with the edge. And 4 of that 5% may be Warren, and 1% everyone else. I just don't see Warren as a contender. They are not going to have two 70+ year olds on the ticket

[JRP1994]

Abrams pitches herself again. She wants to make sure Joe knows she'd be a great running mate. In case the first 25 messages didn't make it through.

https://twitter.com/CBSThisMorning/status/1252593419928641536

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think if I had to put % right now, it would be:

75% chance: Kamla
20% chance: Klobuchar
5% chance: anyone else

That's probably the right order, but I think the gap between Harris and Klobuchar is a lot closer than that.  Maybe 60-35.

You're right, it's probably closer to 60% Harris, 35% Klob, 5% someone else. Harris still with the edge. And 4 of that 5% may be Warren, and 1% everyone else. I just don't see Warren as a contender. They are not going to have two 70+ year olds on the ticket

You keep saying that and Pence and Trump are senior citizens as well.