Make a bold prediction about AZ.

[pbrower2a]

Holy s**t. 23% Yes to 76% No.

Y’all are delusional.

Not after Democrats won the overall majority in the House vote in 2018, picked up a Senate seat, and after so many bad approval polls for Trump.

Yes, I know... I know. The state has gone only once for a Democratic nominee for President since 1948, which is exactly what people were often thinking about Virginia in 2008 until about 11PM on Election Night. Lots of people are moving into Arizona from high-cost California, and the Hispanic vote is growing fast (with an allowance for double-counting). People bring their California voting habits to Arizona as they did to Colorado, and Trump has not been able to shake off bad vibes with Mexican-Americans.

A 2018-style electorate wins the Democratic nominee 295 or 296 electoral votes (the difference being ME-02) based on the combined vote for House seats in the states. House votes, unlike votes for Governors (nobody is going to conclude that Massachusetts or Vermont will go for Trump in 2020 because those states voted for Republican Governors who may offset the State legislatures) are voting on federal issues and know it.

The biggest federal issue for most Americans is now President Donald Trump.

Keep watching the statewide polls starting in January. Some polls indicate that only 35% to 40% of all voters want to re-elect Donald Trump. Republicans do, so he will not lose a primary challenge. This said, many conservatives (about 45% of the electorate is conservative enough that it will vote for the Democratic nominee except under the most freakish circumstances) will be amenable to some right-wing alternative to both Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee sure to be a liberal. Under even the best of circumstances (Obama 2008) is the Democrat going to get anywhere near 55% of the popular vote.

This said, a 50-40-10 split, the '10' going mostly to some Third Party or independent conservative, looks highly likely now.       

[pppolitics]

Holy s**t. 23% Yes to 76% No.

Y’all are delusional.

Not after Democrats won the overall majority in the House vote in 2018, picked up a Senate seat, and after so many bad approval polls for Trump.

Yes, I know... I know. The state has gone only once for a Democratic nominee for President since 1948, which is exactly what people were often thinking about Virginia in 2008 until about 11PM on Election Night. Lots of people are moving into Arizona from high-cost California, and the Hispanic vote is growing fast (with an allowance for double-counting). People bring their California voting habits to Arizona as they did to Colorado, and Trump has not been able to shake off bad vibes with Mexican-Americans.

A 2018-style electorate wins the Democratic nominee 295 or 296 electoral votes (the difference being ME-02) based on the combined vote for House seats in the states. House votes, unlike votes for Governors (nobody is going to conclude that Massachusetts or Vermont will go for Trump in 2020 because those states voted for Republican Governors who may offset the State legislatures) are voting on federal issues and know it.

The biggest federal issue for most Americans is now President Donald Trump.

Keep watching the statewide polls starting in January. Some polls indicate that only 35% to 40% of all voters want to re-elect Donald Trump. Republicans do, so he will not lose a primary challenge. This said, many conservatives (about 45% of the electorate is conservative enough that it will vote for the Democratic nominee except under the most freakish circumstances) will be amenable to some right-wing alternative to both Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee sure to be a liberal. Under even the best of circumstances (Obama 2008) is the Democrat going to get anywhere near 55% of the popular vote.

This said, a 50-40-10 split, the '10' going mostly to some Third Party or independent conservative, looks highly likely now.

How’d that work out in 2016? Gary got what, 3.5%?, which was split between both disenfranchised conservatives and liberals? McMullin? He couldn’t even break within 20 points of Trump in Utah. UTAH.

There is zero chance that a third party will have an impact on the race in 2020. Many of the third party voters were weary that Trump had no legislative experience, but now that he is president, lots of #NeverTrumpers are going to break for him in 2020.

And remember, 2018 was a D+9 year, and democrats only won Arizona by less than 2. Midterms are almost always horrible for the incumbent’s first term, yet most get re-elected.

Also, Arizona has a habit of electing “Mavericks”. For example, people who voted for Tom O’Halleran, (moderate dem from northern AZ) wouldn’t be so quick to vote for a coastal democrat in a nationwide presidential race.

In 2018, the Green candidate got 2.4% of the vote and there wasn’t a Libertarian candidate on the ballot.

That is unlikely to happen again in 2020.

[Askew]

Having a Democratic SOS will significantly help Dems and Republicans won't be able to get away with suppressing votes. On a level playing field AZ is a toss up state.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Bold? The winner of Maricopa County will not win the state.

[pppolitics]

Bold? The winner of Maricopa County will not win the state.

Here's scary math for you.

Maricopa County makes up 61.39% of the state.

Pima County makes up 14.58%

Coconino County makes up 2.01%

Apache County makes up 1.02%

Santa Cruz County makes up 0.66%

The last four are almost guaranteed to vote Democratic. If you add Maricopa County to that, that's 79.65% of the state.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona votes could keep lots of people awake after midnight on Election Night.

[Roll Roons]

It just might vote to left of Florida for the first time since 1988.

[pppolitics]

It just might vote to left of Florida for the first time since 1988.

Looking at 2018, that’s more likely than not the case.

[morgankingsley]

Mark my words. Trump will win Arizona in 2020.

Are you suggesting that everybody bookmark this?

Yes.

And what are you proposing if you are wrong?

A one week ban

Sure, I’m good with that.

I CAN GUARANTEE YOU WITH 100% CERTAINTY THAT TRUMP WILL DO EVEN BETTER IN ARIZONA THAN HE DID IN 2016

If you are wrong: one week ban for each of you, starting right after the election.

Bump

[AGA]

I like how all the "true" swing states went Trump while AZ was the only one to go Biden.

[Thunder98]

Trump will win it. I think it is a huge fools gold state. It should be triaged.

Democrats could win but it would mean taking money from NC & FL which are true swing states and each have more electoral votes. Even OH & IA are more important.

Wow this was quite the accurate prediction...

 

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I think Arizona will be within 1 point of going democrat in 2020.

It would depend on the environment.

If 2020 is D+4 (Obama 2012), AZ probably flip.

If 2020 is D+2 (Clinton 2016), AZ probably not flip

If 2010 is D+7 (Obama 2012), AZ definitely flip

Pretty much.