Make a bold prediction about AZ.

[°Leprechaun]

Trump will win it. I think it is a huge fools gold state. It should be triaged.

Democrats could win but it would mean taking money from NC & FL which are true swing states and each have more electoral votes. Even OH & IA are more important.

[ON Progressive]

Do tell how exactly Arizona is a "fool's gold state"? Trump only won it by 3.5% and he is quite unpopular now.

We also just won four statewide races, including a Senate race. Also, NC is not a "true swing state" considering Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.

[Xing]

"Bold" predictions are overrated. I'm fine saying Arizona will be competitive.

[Coldstream]

Trump will win it. I think it is a huge fools gold state. It should be triaged.

Democrats could win but it would mean taking money from NC & FL which are true swing states and each have more electoral votes. Even OH & IA are more important.

I feel confident saying Arizona will vote to the left of all four of those states.

[AudmanOut]

"Bold" predictions are overrated. I'm fine saying Arizona will be competitive.

This^^^^ it makes us look stupid after the election.

[°Leprechaun]

Do tell how exactly Arizona is a "fool's gold state"? Trump only won it by 3.5% and he is quite unpopular now.

We also just won four statewide races, including a Senate race. Also, NC is not a "true swing state" considering Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.

It may be more likely to flip than FL, or NC, but those states have more electoral votes.
Romney only won NC by a very small margin. He also won NC by a much smaller margin than AZ.
Even if NC leans slightly to the GOP it is still a swing state. FL may be doubtful because of irregularities and voter suppression, but if the playing field were fair in FL, it would be at least a tossup and maybe even lean D. AZ may be a swing state but it doesn't lean D and may even lean R. It's a question of overall strategy. Do you target big states or small ones?

[°Leprechaun]

"Bold" predictions are overrated. I'm fine saying Arizona will be competitive.

This^^^^ it makes us look stupid after the election.

True enough, but any predictions this early (other than obvious safe states) are a bit pre-mature. Many people here are overconfident about AZ; that is the point.

[ON Progressive]

Do tell how exactly Arizona is a "fool's gold state"? Trump only won it by 3.5% and he is quite unpopular now.

We also just won four statewide races, including a Senate race. Also, NC is not a "true swing state" considering Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.

It may be more likely to flip than FL, or NC, but those states have more electoral votes.
Romney only won NC by a very small margin. He also won NC by a much smaller margin than AZ.
Even if NC leans slightly to the GOP it is still a swing state. FL may be doubtful because of irregularities and voter suppression, but if the playing field were fair in FL, it would be at least a tossup and maybe even lean D. AZ may be a swing state but it doesn't lean D and may even lean R. It's a question of overall strategy. Do you target big states or small ones?

You can do both, you know. The Dem nominee for President will very likely have north of a billion dollars to play with, which means they can spend a ton throughout the entire battleground.

Also, NC's lean hardly changed between 2012 and 2016 (both years, NC was just under 6 points more GOP than the nation). Meanwhile, Arizona swung from being 13 points more GOP than the nation to a mere 5 points more GOP than the nation.

Who cares if Arizona has less electoral votes than NC/FL, it's more winnable than either and that's what matters.

[°Leprechaun]

Do tell how exactly Arizona is a "fool's gold state"? Trump only won it by 3.5% and he is quite unpopular now.

We also just won four statewide races, including a Senate race. Also, NC is not a "true swing state" considering Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.

It may be more likely to flip than FL, or NC, but those states have more electoral votes.
Romney only won NC by a very small margin. He also won NC by a much smaller margin than AZ.
Even if NC leans slightly to the GOP it is still a swing state. FL may be doubtful because of irregularities and voter suppression, but if the playing field were fair in FL, it would be at least a tossup and maybe even lean D. AZ may be a swing state but it doesn't lean D and may even lean R. It's a question of overall strategy. Do you target big states or small ones?

You can do both, you know. The Dem nominee for President will very likely have north of a billion dollars to play with, which means they can spend a ton throughout the entire battleground.

Also, NC's lean hardly changed between 2012 and 2016 (both years, NC was just under 6 points more GOP than the nation). Meanwhile, Arizona swung from being 13 points more GOP than the nation to a mere 5 points more GOP than the nation.

Who cares if Arizona has less electoral votes than NC/FL, it's more winnable than either and that's what matters.

Yes, you can spend money in AZ. The point is that other states like WI are more winnable. WI only has one less electoral vote. I also think IA and OH could swing. Maybe OH would be harder to win because of it's size, but could be close. IA would require less money and could be competitive. Likewise in TX, it would require a huge amount of money. The Democrats needs to be careful about states like NV, and possibly MN which could flip if they are ignored. It is about balancing a defensive strategy with an offensive one, not taking certain states as sure things, and not giving up on ones like FL....

[°Leprechaun]

... AZ is not part of any firewall... those states are important...
So the question is which states beyond the firewall are winnable. AZ is not the only one. That is where the Democrats could go wrong. Other than AZ, where do you go?

(firewall = Clinton states plus MI, PA, WI. PA and WI are by no means safe states)

[lfromnj]

Az replaces wisconsin
 Sinema won by more than Evers even with a green third party

[°Leprechaun]

Az replaces wisconsin
 Sinema won by more than Evers even with a green third party

You can't necessarily predict POTUS elections based on congressional elections.

[°Leprechaun]

If this is the map how would the D win?

[°Leprechaun]

That's only 243 electoral votes. Of the states in grey only FL has more than the required 27.

MI should be the easiest to flip. None of the others are. So how can the D win without at least one more state? That's why AZ isn't enough. It might make more sense to target PA or FL which Trump one.

[ON Progressive]

Do tell how exactly Arizona is a "fool's gold state"? Trump only won it by 3.5% and he is quite unpopular now.

We also just won four statewide races, including a Senate race. Also, NC is not a "true swing state" considering Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.

“Quite unpopular”

His approval was 52-47 in the state on Election Day 2018.
Trump’s National approval right now is the same as Clinton’s at this same point in 1994.
Clinton won the state.

Considering Democrats won 4 statewide races, I highly doubt his approval was 52% in Arizona. Also, his national net approval is 5 points lower than Bill's at the same point.

Bill also had a worse economy in 1994 than Trump does right now, not to mention Bill's approval was well above 50% by election day. That will not happen with Trump, especially since we have a strong economy and he's still well below water.

[Xeuma]

Do tell how exactly Arizona is a "fool's gold state"? Trump only won it by 3.5% and he is quite unpopular now.

We also just won four statewide races, including a Senate race. Also, NC is not a "true swing state" considering Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.

“Quite unpopular”

His approval was 52-47 in the state on Election Day 2018.
Trump’s National approval right now is the same as Clinton’s at this same point in 1994.
Clinton won the state.

Considering Democrats won 4 statewide races, I highly doubt his approval was 52% in Arizona. Also, his national net approval is 5 points lower than Bill's at the same point.

Bill also had a worse economy in 1994 than Trump does right now, not to mention Bill's approval was well above 50% by election day. That will not happen with Trump, especially since we have a strong economy and he's still well below water.

It was a literal CNN poll.

Did that poll take into account early voters who are heavily Democratic compared to ED voters?

[Skill and Chance]

If this is the map how would the D win?

Pennsylvania and Michigan are clearly the next states to flip on this map.

[Woody]

Trump wins AZ by 3 points. McSally was such an embarrassment.

[Lognog]

Trump wins AZ by 3 points. McSally was such an embarrassment.

She was the first pick of the GOP there and did better than her opponents would have done

[😥]

Sinema- new Senator
Hobbs- new Secretary of State
Clinton's margin in 2016 was more little than Obama' s margin in 2012

Trump will lose it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully, Trump loses it

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Trump will win it and we will have either Senator Kelli Ward or Senator Joe Arpaio

[pppolitics]

It's going to be the 3 or 4 state to flip (after Michigan, Pennsylvania, and maybe Wisconsin).

There's a good chance that it's actually the tipping point state.

[pppolitics]

Trump wins AZ by 3 points. McSally was such an embarrassment.

McSally lost because she tied herself to Trump who is unpopular in Arizona

From the McSally campaign:

“A significant segment of the AZ GOP was hostile to the President,” it says. “In internal polling during the primary, President Trump never broke 80% favorability among Republican voters. A certain segment of AZ Republicans was outright hostile to President Trump, and was against the Kavanaugh appointment. This segment of moderate Republicans, especially woman, proved very difficult to bring home to a Republican candidate that supported President Trump and the confirmation of Justice Kavanaugh.”

[pppolitics]

Do tell how exactly Arizona is a "fool's gold state"? Trump only won it by 3.5% and he is quite unpopular now.

We also just won four statewide races, including a Senate race. Also, NC is not a "true swing state" considering Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.

“Quite unpopular”

His approval was 52-47 in the state on Election Day 2018.
Trump’s National approval right now is the same as Clinton’s at this same point in 1994.
Clinton won the state.

Most of the state voted early.

McSally won the election day votes.

She got blow out of the water on early votes.