Make a bold prediction about AZ.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

I think Arizona will be within 1 point of going democrat in 2020.

[pppolitics]

I think Arizona will be within 1 point of going democrat in 2020.

It would depend on the environment.

If 2020 is D+4 (Obama 2012), AZ probably flip.

If 2020 is D+2 (Clinton 2016), AZ probably not flip

If 2010 is D+7 (Obama 2012), AZ definitely flip

[IceSpear]

LOL at the GOP hacks in this thread thinking Dems can't win AZ. Some people never learn.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ has a better chance to flip than FL

[pppolitics]

Do tell how exactly Arizona is a "fool's gold state"? Trump only won it by 3.5% and he is quite unpopular now.

We also just won four statewide races, including a Senate race. Also, NC is not a "true swing state" considering Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.

“Quite unpopular”

His approval was 52-47 in the state on Election Day 2018.
Trump’s National approval right now is the same as Clinton’s at this same point in 1994.
Clinton won the state.

Most of the state voted early.

McSally won the election day votes.

She got blow out of the water on early votes.

Still, 52-47 is a 5 point margin. Not even possible for Dems to win if he maintains this approval from this exit poll.

Trump doesn't have a 52-47 approval rating.

Election day voters are much more Republican than early voters.

[morgankingsley]

Trump wins by a slightly larger margin

[IceSpear]

Sinema built a coalition of independents and moderate republicans. The exit poll for ED voters show she won 10% of voters who approve of Trump. (Despite all this, she didn’t even manage to get a majority, even in a D+9 national environment). Compare this to 2016, with a R+1 Congress. When considering the national margin change from 2016-2018, AZ actually trended Republican LMAO

Also, senate elections don’t always correspond with presidential elections. (Imo, I’m pretty sure Trump will win West Virginia even though Manchin won it in 2018.)

Clearly only Sinema could win AZ...which is why she won it by about the same margin as Dems did in the cumulative House results.

[pppolitics]

Sinema built a coalition of independents and moderate republicans. The exit poll for ED voters show she won 10% of voters who approve of Trump. (Despite all this, she didn’t even manage to get a majority, even in a D+9 national environment). Compare this to 2016, with a R+1 Congress. When considering the national margin change from 2016-2018, AZ actually trended Republican LMAO

Also, senate elections don’t always correspond with presidential elections. (Imo, I’m pretty sure Trump will win West Virginia even though Manchin won it in 2018.)

Oh, then how did Kathy Hoffman and Katie Hobbs won?

It must be pretty had to keep up your mental gymnastics.

[ON Progressive]

Sinema built a coalition of independents and moderate republicans. The exit poll for ED voters show she won 10% of voters who approve of Trump. (Despite all this, she didn’t even manage to get a majority, even in a D+9 national environment). Compare this to 2016, with a R+1 Congress. When considering the national margin change from 2016-2018, AZ actually trended Republican LMAO

Also, senate elections don’t always correspond with presidential elections. (Imo, I’m pretty sure Trump will win West Virginia even though Manchin won it in 2018.)

Clearly only Sinema could win AZ...which is why she won it by about the same margin as Dems did in the cumulative House results.

We can also ask Secretary of State-elect Steve Gaynor and Superintendent of Public Education-elect Frank Riggs how "Trump has a 52% approval rating in Arizona"

[pppolitics]

Mark my words. Trump will win Arizona in 2020.

Are you suggesting that everybody bookmark this?

[pppolitics]

Mark my words. Trump will win Arizona in 2020.

Are you suggesting that everybody bookmark this?

Yes.

And what are you proposing if you are wrong?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats win it if the nominee is Harris, Beto, or Biden.

[Frenchrepublican]

Arizona will probably one of the most competitive state in 2020 along WI/PA/MI. I also think the democratic nominee will have a better chance to win AZ than NC or FL. NC has not really moved to the left during the last decade and remains a right leaning state, besides in 2018 House republicans still won a majority of the vote in NC (when they lost it in AZ). As for FL you had over the past 15 years a small swing toward republicans, so I think the state will vote four of five points more republican than the rest of the country. AZ on the other hand swung massively to the left between 2012 and 2016 and during the midterms it was the only of the three states where Democrats won a majority of the cumulated House vote. So if the democratic nominee wins the popular vote by three points or more it is fairly easy to see him wins Arizona.

[GMantis]

Do tell how exactly Arizona is a "fool's gold state"? Trump only won it by 3.5% and he is quite unpopular now.

We also just won four statewide races, including a Senate race. Also, NC is not a "true swing state" considering Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.

“Quite unpopular”

His approval was 52-47 in the state on Election Day 2018.
Trump’s National approval right now is the same as Clinton’s at this same point in 1994.
Clinton won the state.

Most of the state voted early.

McSally won the election day votes.

She got blow out of the water on early votes.

Still, 52-47 is a 5 point margin. Not even possible for Dems to win if he maintains this approval from this exit poll.

It's actually a 2 point margin.

[morgankingsley]

Mark my words. Trump will win Arizona in 2020.

Are you suggesting that everybody bookmark this?

Yes.

And what are you proposing if you are wrong?

A one week ban

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

I CAN GUARANTEE YOU WITH 100% CERTAINTY THAT TRUMP WILL DO EVEN BETTER IN ARIZONA THAN HE DID IN 2016

[pppolitics]

Mark my words. Trump will win Arizona in 2020.

Are you suggesting that everybody bookmark this?

Yes.

And what are you proposing if you are wrong?

A one week ban

Sure, I’m good with that.

I CAN GUARANTEE YOU WITH 100% CERTAINTY THAT TRUMP WILL DO EVEN BETTER IN ARIZONA THAN HE DID IN 2016

If you are wrong: one week ban for each of you, starting right after the election.

[Skunk]

[Arnaud]

Arizona was "only" 42% white non-college in 2016 ( will be 40% in 2020 or less) , Trump won by only 3.5% ( underperformed) and his last approval in the state this month from morning consult is 47-49%.

Arizona unless GA or NC has also less rural votes to save him.

If the Dem nominee win Maricopa county like Sinema did, AZ will  be blue.

Trump is in big trouble in Arizona.

[brucejoel99]

The Democratic nominee wins by more than 6%, & w/ a majority (rather than a plurality) of the vote as well.

[Zaybay]

How to make bold prediction:

If Democrat-
Declare state will go Democratic, add a margin if you wish to show how absolutely destroyed (insert Republican here) will be.

If Republican-
Declare state will go Republican by the largest margin in history, and that Democrats are incompetent and cant win elections.

[SN2903]

Trump wins it by 4 points in 2020.

[538Electoral]

I've touched upon this before. But unless something really negative happens or unless it's someone from Arizona or Texas, Arizona will likely stay Republican.

[pppolitics]

I've touched upon this before. But unless something really negative happens or unless it's someone from Arizona or Texas, Arizona will likely stay Republican.

That really negative thing is called "Donald Trump".

[Figueira]

Trump wins, but it's his closest state.