IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[PAK Man]

To address some points here:

- Braley lost the second he was caught on tape calling Chuck Grassley a "farmer from Iowa with no law degree." No matter what he did, he wasn't going to come back from that. Yes, he was 100% true, but farmers took that as a knock against them, and you do not upset the farmers in Iowa.

- The only reason Trump won Iowa by such a big margin is because of how much Clinton was hated. I have friends that believe in everything about the Democratic Party and were ardent Obama supporters, but HATED Clinton. Why? I have no idea, but all of them were ardent Sanders supporters. When he suspended his campaign, they all swarmed to Gary Johnson. Trust me when I say, without Clinton on the ballot, Democrats are going to do a whole lot better.

2018 was actually Democrats' best election cycle in several years in Iowa. They picked up a state office they haven't held since the '60s (state auditor), picked up two U.S. House seats, almost picked up a third, and just barely lost the governors' mansion. All things considered, I think that's a great sign for Democrats, and they'd be completely foolish to not seriously challenge Ernst.

Agree with this. Trump's 9 point win was at 51% when everyone is acting like it was in the mid-50s. A combination of the environment in 2016 and the dislike of Clinton is what got him that margin. This was a weak 9 point win. I know way too many democrats here who wrote in Sanders, voted 3rd party, or just didn't vote upon Clinton winning the nomination.

Iowa is definitely lean R, but this whole talk of "it shouldn't be contested anymore" is crazy. The right D candidate would win.

However, I do think Ernst will outperform Trump by a noticeable margin here. I won't be surprised if she gets reelected and Trump loses the state if he's up against Biden or Sanders. Anyone perceived as a coastal elitist will have a harder time.

I thought this too but the fact that Fred Hubbell couldn't take out a non-incumbent governor means it will be harder to defeat Ernst. Let's not forget that Hubbell is from a family that practically built Iowa.

The guy sat on the board of f[inks]ing PLANNED PARENTHOOD.  Something like that doesn't fly in a state like Iowa...

See, I didn't know that. I only knew him as a businessman and philanthropist. I don't ever recall Planned Parenthood coming up at any point during his campaign. He was never attacked on it, that's for sure.

I think the problem was people who don't care about social issues / business people flocked towards Reynolds.

[Jeppe]

I think Reynolds was just a stronger candidate than people gave her credit for, she came off as a lot more personable and human compared to Hubbell. Her history of overcoming alcohol addiction vs. Hubbell's family name and fortune.

[PAK Man]

Certainly that's one reason. I met Hubbell once on the campaign trail and he was just bland. Frankly, he was pretty much Generic D.

Boulton probably would have won if he hadn't had that sexual harassment scandal. I personally voted for John Norris in the primary, though (Boulton was too new at politics and something about Hubbell rubbed me the wrong way. Glasson struck me as unelectable statewide).

[Comrade Funk]

DSCC and Emily's List endorsed Greenfield. She's the candidate. Better her than some whitebread businessman I guess.

https://twitter.com/dscc/status/1136636872581681152

[Zaybay]

Im extremely dissapointed in the DSCC. Endorsing this early, and for a rather no-name candidate who's known for having a ballot signature scandal(it wasnt her, but she will be associated with it) doesnt look good for our chances here.

[SnowLabrador]

Im extremely dissapointed in the DSCC. Endorsing this early, and for a rather no-name candidate who's known for having a ballot signature scandal(it wasnt her, but she will be associated with it) doesnt look good for our chances here.

Agreed. I didn't think we could beat Ernst anyway, but Greenfield seems like a poor choice to me. At least wait a few months to see if other candidates announce!

[Frenchrepublican]

Im extremely dissapointed in the DSCC. Endorsing this early, and for a rather no-name candidate who's known for having a ballot signature scandal(it wasnt her, but she will be associated with it) doesnt look good for our chances here.

Ernst is not really vulnerable and IA is not on the path to a D senate majority

[Comrade Funk]

Im extremely dissapointed in the DSCC. Endorsing this early, and for a rather no-name candidate who's known for having a ballot signature scandal(it wasnt her, but she will be associated with it) doesnt look good for our chances here.

No one gives a damn or will give a damn about that.

[Sestak]

This is a triage.

[SnowLabrador]

This is a triage.

I'm afraid you're right. Even though as many seats as possible need to be put in play.

[Gracile]

Im extremely dissapointed in the DSCC. Endorsing this early, and for a rather no-name candidate who's known for having a ballot signature scandal(it wasnt her, but she will be associated with it) doesnt look good for our chances here.

No one gives a damn or will give a damn about that.

I wouldn't be so sure. At the very least, I expect Republicans to try to spin the story to put Greenfield in a bad light.

[Politician]

How on earth is this a triage, is Atlas really this dumb? The DCCC also endorsed Ben Ray Lujan in NM who has a primary opponent, so either they're confident no stronger Dems will run or they think Greenfield is better than any potential candidates.

[S019]

Lol, if the DSCC is endorsing some no name candidate for IA-SEN, they’ve already given up


Also

This is a triage.

Anyway Rating Change

IA-SEN: Likely R—————>Safe R

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

How on earth is this a triage, is Atlas really this dumb? The DCCC also endorsed Ben Ray Lujan in NM who has a primary opponent, so either they're confident no stronger Dems will run or they think Greenfield is better than any potential candidates.

Uhh if that's the case, we have indeed triaged this race.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Don't worry, the Democratic establishment can triage the Senate because their anointed boy, Biden, will make McConnell come to the center through reasoned talks and some good ol' bipartisanship (and as we know, the B in LGBT stands for bipartisan so both parties who are involved in these Very Serious Talks are clearly LGBT-friendly).

This recent news may throw a wrench in their plans, though...

https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1133838706530496512

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don't worry, the Democratic establishment can triage the Senate because their anointed boy, Biden, will make McConnell come to the center through reasoned talks and some good ol' bipartisanship (and as we know, the B in LGBT stands for bipartisan so both parties who are involved in these Very Serious Talks are clearly LGBT-friendly).

This recent news may throw a wrench in their plans, though...

https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1133838706530496512

IA is part of 272 map, like Va, Bullock endorsed Greenfield.  Dems arent triaging race. Bradley was favored and he lost to Ernst

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1136716703549857792

[Politician]

Lol, these "this is a triage" predictions already didn't age well.

[Sestak]

Lol, these "this is a triage" predictions already didn't age well.

Backing this person who no one has heard of outside of having a ballot signatures scandal is absolutely tantamount to giving up the seat.

The fact that they're doing this when Scholten is still there means that they would rather give up the seat than run Scholten for it. Needless to say, Scholten himself doesn't seem to agree.

[Comrade Funk]

Lol, these "this is a triage" predictions already didn't age well.

Might be one of the most embarrassing moments I've witnessed in Atlas history. More than a year from the election lmao

[Xing]

Even if Iowa is a longshot, it's far from the most expensive state to compete in, so it doesn't make sense for Democrats to give up, at least not this early in the game. I don't think the DSCC is triaging this race, they're just not always the best at picking great candidates to endorse.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA isn't a longshot, it's part of 272 and Ernst was a longshot against Braley at first and she won. We have to defeat her before she becomes entrenched like Grassley

[voice_of_resistance]

imo Scholten should run for the 4th because as long as our nominee is credible for Senate he will help cut down the Democratic losses in the 4th district, which are what did Hubbell in.

[MT Treasurer]

Even with Scholten there’s no way IA will be even close to the tipping point race. This is one of only three Senate races where I think Atlas really overestimates Democratic chances of winning (I think Republicans are overestimated in pretty much every other competitive or somewhat competitive race).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Senate map

Presidential map
 

Iowa is a battleground state