IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Zaybay]

Per a new poll, Ernst has a 57% approval rating. I think she'll win by double digits at this rate.

Its a year and a half out. Ask Heidi how having a 60/29 approval worked out for her at this stage.


Shes strong right now, but only time will tell if it can last.

[2016]

Democrats in IA can crawl back to their caves when Ernst wins Re-Election.

[Young Conservative]

Per a new poll, Ernst has a 57% approval rating. I think she'll win by double digits at this rate.

Its a year and a half out. Ask Heidi how having a 60/29 approval worked out for her at this stage.


Shes strong right now, but only time will tell if it can last.

Joni is an R in a red state. Heidi was a D in a red state. Don't compare the two.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is a moderate in a swing state and put on the Capito sleeve. The only candidate that can win IA in a GE against Trump, is Bernie Sanders

[S019]

Ernst will probably win reelection something like 54-46, this race is Likely R and Tom Vilsack will not make it competitive

[Strong Candidate]

Vilsack is not running: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/22/election-20202-tom-vilsack-not-run-u-s-senate-joni-ernst-democrat-republican/2952285002/

[InheritTheWind]

Vilsack is not running: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/22/election-20202-tom-vilsack-not-run-u-s-senate-joni-ernst-democrat-republican/2952285002/

Thank god — Vilsack was never going to make this a winnable race for Dems. Scholten or Sand still remain the best hopes of flipping the seat.

[Xing]

Vilsack is not running: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/22/election-20202-tom-vilsack-not-run-u-s-senate-joni-ernst-democrat-republican/2952285002/

Good, Democrats can do better.

Ernst is a moderate in a swing state and put on the Capito sleeve. The only candidate that can win IA in a GE against Trump, is Bernie Sanders

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I know Sand is the only D to win statewide since Obama (which, in itself, woof) but am I the only one who doesn't think he should run in 2020? Let him settle into state government instead of having him run after a year in office. If he loses against Ernst you've wasted one of the few good plausible statewide candidates you have.

[Skunk]

I know Sand is the only D to win statewide since Obama (which, in itself, woof) but am I the only one who doesn't think he should run in 2020? Let him settle into state government instead of having him run after a year in office. If he loses against Ernst you've wasted one of the few good plausible statewide candidates you have.

I agree, Scholten would be better (although with King announcing he's running for re-election he'll probably go for a rematch).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

JD Scholten should run, we shall see.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm glad Vilsack isn't running, he'd be a poor choice for Democrats.

[IceSpear]

Vilsack is not running: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/22/election-20202-tom-vilsack-not-run-u-s-senate-joni-ernst-democrat-republican/2952285002/

Thank god. I would've written this race off completely if he jumped in.

[Zaybay]

Glad that Vilsack isnt running, though I must admit, besides the current house members, the Dems dont really have a bench in IA. I would give the nod to JD, personally, but besides him and the house delegation, I dont really see anyone.

[lfromnj]

Sand is pretty interested
https://twitter.com/RobSandIA/status/1099297720966303744

[Technocracy Timmy]

Per a new poll, Ernst has a 57% approval rating. I think she'll win by double digits at this rate.

Its a year and a half out. Ask Heidi how having a 60/29 approval worked out for her at this stage.


Shes strong right now, but only time will tell if it can last.

Well her 57% approval rating matches the 57%-36% approval for THE WALL in Iowa. Selzer Poll.

Not sure how much less deplorable a rural, uneducated, white state that loves The Wall can get.

[InheritTheWind]

I know Sand is the only D to win statewide since Obama (which, in itself, woof) but am I the only one who doesn't think he should run in 2020? Let him settle into state government instead of having him run after a year in office. If he loses against Ernst you've wasted one of the few good plausible statewide candidates you have.

Eh, this is probably a better year for him to run, if only because he won't have to give up his seat now, whereas he would in 2022 or 2026.

[SnowLabrador]

Sand has to run. Good thing that he may be at least considering it. He could indeed be the only one who could win.

[Brittain33]

Would this be our first major Millennial challenge of a Gen X Senator?

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure why Sand wouldn’t want to wait until 2022 when the other seat is open, but I guess they need to run someone lol. Pretty telling that Vilsack declined to run, apparently he’s still very popular in the state.

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure why Sand wouldn’t want to wait until 2022 when the other seat is open, but I guess they need to run someone lol. Pretty telling that Vilsack declined to run, apparently he’s still very popular in the state.

Because that seat would have a 0% chance at flipping in a President Harris midterm and at best 50% chance in a Trump 6-year itch. Might as well run now when Ernst isn’t entrenched and when it looks like Trump has a decent chance of losing reelection

I get your point, but is the other seat really more likely to flip with a popular incumbent running for reelection in a presidential year with Trump likely winning the state by a wide margin simultaneously? I guess it depends on whether 2020 or 2022 turns out to be the better year for Dems (no way to know), but defeating an incumbent/strong retail politician in a state like Iowa isn’t exactly easy.

[SnowLabrador]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

[SnowLabrador]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

I kind of agree. I really hope Sand will run.

[DINGO Joe]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well, redistricting is most likely to make the district all metro Des Moines probably with Story attached, so if she could make it to 2022 it's a pretty safe seat.