IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What did Vilsack do to gain so much ire from Atlas?

[lfromnj]

What did Vilsack do to gain so much ire from Atlas?

Old,retread and hasn't had an election in 18 years . Also not a great resume as Secretary of ag and even then most people don't know. Iowa can either be bayh 2.0 with vilsack or kander 2.0(but a victory) with a young populist candidate like jd scholten. No one really cares about his ideology but that rarely matters anyway especially in a retail state like iowa.

[MT Treasurer]

What did Vilsack do to gain so much ire from Atlas?

Old,retread and hasn't had an election in 18 years . Also not a great resume as Secretary of ag and even then most people don't know. Iowa can either be bayh 2.0 with vilsack or kander 2.0(but a victory) with a young populist candidate like jd scholten. No one really cares about his ideology but that rarely matters anyway especially in a retail state like iowa.

Ernst is a far stronger and popular incumbent than Roy Blunt, though.

[Xing]

So he's a solid "maybe", then. I agree that if he runs and wins the primary, this race is probably over for Democrats, but Ernst is hilariously overrated on this forum. She'll of course win if Republicans have a good year, but the idea that she's not even vulnerable in a good year for Democrats is absurd.

[Oryxslayer]

People urging him not to run who else do you suggest?

Abby Finkenauer.

[lfromnj]

What did Vilsack do to gain so much ire from Atlas?

Old,retread and hasn't had an election in 18 years . Also not a great resume as Secretary of ag and even then most people don't know. Iowa can either be bayh 2.0 with vilsack or kander 2.0(but a victory) with a young populist candidate like jd scholten. No one really cares about his ideology but that rarely matters anyway especially in a retail state like iowa.

Ernst is a far stronger and popular incumbent than Roy Blunt, though.

I can agree with that but I'm more comparing the d candidates

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

People urging him not to run who else do you suggest?

Abby Finkenauer.

I thought Abby Finkenauer is barely too young based on constitutional age requirements to run for Senate in 2020 (but she meets the requirements in 2022).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Scholten is the best bet but he lost to King.

[Brittain33]

I can see the outlines of an Unbeatable Titan Joni Ernst myth taking shape. Do the Googling guys, she's only modestly popular in the state based on the polls I can find from 2018. Selzer had her at 51% popular and Morning Consult had her at 42%-38% earlier this year. These aren't terrible numbers, but if Iowa swings heavily enough against Trump she could fall.

I'll call this Likely R until we see who the Dems put up.

Whatever 2020 turns out to be, it's probably not going to be as good as 2014 for Ernst.

[NewYorkExpress]

Unlike Evan Bayh (who had no shot because of how Republican his state was) or Ted Strickland (who had the unfortunate luck of Trump carrying Ohio,and ran a bad campaign. If Hillary had won Ohio, she might have pulled Strickland over the line.), Vilsack can beat Ernst in 2020 if he runs, and runs a quality campaign. He'll have the advantage of an unpopular Trump atop the ticket, and Ernst isn't some unbeatable titan herself. Plus, while Iowa is getting more Republican, it isn't there yet, as the two Democratic Congressional victories this year proved.

The only other people who I think could win the seat otherwise are Abby Finkenauer (who will just barely be eligible to run, and she might prefer to wait and see if Grassley retires in 2022) and maybe Janet Petersen.

[Young Conservative]

Old governors always work! Just ask Senators Bayh, Thompson, Strickland...

Interestingly, outgoing or incumbent governors actually work pretty well. Senators Scott, Hassan, Sheheen,, etc.

[brucejoel99]

People urging him not to run who else do you suggest?

Abby Finkenauer.

I thought Abby Finkenauer is barely too young based on constitutional age requirements to run for Senate in 2020 (but she meets the requirements in 2022).

Abby Finkenauer was born on December 27, 1988 so she'll be eligible.

[Roll Roons]

Old governors always work! Just ask Senators Bayh, Thompson, Strickland...

Interestingly, outgoing or incumbent governors actually work pretty well. Senators Scott, Hassan, Sheheen,, etc.

Shaheen's interesting - she lost as the outgoing governor in 2002, and then won as the former governor in 2008. That said, the general rule still stands that sitting governors do much better than former ones when running for Senate.

[ElectionsGuy]

The race moves from Lean R to Lean D to Safe R if he runs.

[Alabama_Indy10]

The race moves from Lean R to Lean D if he runs.

You’re joking, right?

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, this is not safe R and not even likely. Lean R is about right for the moment, as of Dec. '18. If a Dem prez is elected with at least the 2012 Obama margin, this seat should flip.

[Peanut]

LOL, this is not safe R and not even likely. Lean R is about right for the moment, as of Dec. '18. If a Dem prez is elected with at least the 2012 Obama margin, this seat should flip.

This, but Vilsack is a terrible candidate. He would be Strickland 2.0, just as Beebe would be Bredesen 2.0.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, this is not safe R and not even likely. Lean R is about right for the moment, as of Dec. '18. If a Dem prez is elected with at least the 2012 Obama margin, this seat should flip.

This, but Vilsack is a terrible candidate. He would be Strickland 2.0, just as Beebe would be Bredesen 2.0.

Certainly not my first choice. The said previous "recycled" and failed candidates teach us we need fresh new faces running for office in swing or lean R territory. That Sholten dude seems to be a strong contender for '20 and Abby Finkenauer for '22, which is probably an open seat.

[lfromnj]

The race moves from Lean R to Lean D if he runs.

You’re joking, right?

the shocking part is that he didn't have iowa as Lean d already.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vilsack definitely has a chance, at least he isnt like Bullock who flipped and he flopped and may lose to Fox anyway in Gov race. This is why he is undecided.

[aaroncd107]

LOL, this is not safe R and not even likely. Lean R is about right for the moment, as of Dec. '18. If a Dem prez is elected with at least the 2012 Obama margin, this seat should flip.

This, but Vilsack is a terrible candidate. He would be Strickland 2.0, just as Beebe would be Bredesen 2.0.

I wouldn't be mad if Beebe ran. In fact, I would welcome it. There is no chance that any Democrat will ever win a Senate seat in Arkansas in a Presidential year, but everyone would think "Beebe has a shot" and perhaps CCM could trick Republicans into wasting cash there.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Vilsack definitely has a chance, at least he isnt like Bullock who flipped and he flopped and may lose to Fox anyway in Gov race. This is why he is undecided.

What’re you talking about? Bullock won re-election easily and is term-limited.

[Joe Haydn]

Vilsack may not be the most progressive candidate, but he's popular among Democrats here and I think he'd have at least as good a chance as anyone else to beat Ernst.

[SnowLabrador]

I REALLY hope Vilsack either doesn't run or loses the primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I REALLY hope Vilsack either doesn't run or loses the primary.

Whom is your candidate, Scholten who lost to 👑 King?

We don't know whom is the best bet until polling shows