Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[bagelman]

What on earth is going on with native American vote in age of trump??

It's the rural urban divide slowly bringing itself to swallow up any sort of diversity of opinion and political culture across this country, like a monstrous leviathan turning everything into grey sludge.

The race isn't over but it's Likely R at this point.

[RI]

Cumberland flipped to Bishop with all precincts in.

[Sestak]

DDHQ projects for Bishop (I think)

[NOVA Green]

More Robeson precincts came in, down to a 4-point lead for McCrory now. Was McCready +15 last November.

Just as I feared. Is this Native turnout down? If not...why?!

Precinct data comes later...

[here2view]

Bishop carries Cumberland

[MT Treasurer]

LOL Cumberland has flipped

[Storr]

What on earth is going on with native American vote in age of trump??

Lumbees are very racially mixed with whites and blacks. Culturally many are like rural whites, being protestant. They aren't like tribes out west.

That's a big reason they don't have federal recognition (and the Cherokee in the western part of the state don't want the Lumbees to be able to build a casino along I-95).

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Bishop wins Cumberland by 0.3% or 36 votes.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1171601605306834950?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

The only stuff left is Blanden and Mecklenburg. Unless there's some sort of Absentee vote left, Bishop has won. But its clear Dem enthusiasm hasn't stopped now that 2018 is over. And like the miles tweet, McReady lost because he lost the Lumbee vote.

[Brittain33]

Glad I didn't flip my prediction from Bishop when there was all the expectations setting in the last 48 hours.

[NOVA Green]

Meck precincts remaining generally overwhelmingly ED McCready--- pct 73,75,91,96,101,131,137,144,216,217,227,232.

Includes some decent sized ones, but Union and swings in the Eastern Counties likely make it not enough even if ED numbers are larger than one might imagine over EV numbers in terms of votes remaining.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ag1o3koTLWM

[Bidenworth2020]

Meck precincts remaining generally overwhelmingly ED McCready--- pct 73,75,91,96,101,131,137,144,216,217,227,232.

Includes some decent sized ones, but Union and swings in the Eastern Counties likely make it not enough even if ED numbers are larger than one might imagine over EV numbers in terms of votes remaining.

Could it be so narrow that it flips after absentees?

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Meck precincts remaining generally overwhelmingly ED McCready--- pct 73,75,91,96,101,131,137,144,216,217,227,232.

Includes some decent sized ones, but Union and swings in the Eastern Counties likely make it not enough even if ED numbers are larger than one might imagine over EV numbers in terms of votes remaining.

Could it be so narrow that it flips after absentees?

Probably not.

[IceSpear]

Wait, McCready did the same or even better in the suburbs but is going to do worse overall because of a rural collapse? What a shock. Who ever could've predicted this?! It's just SO out of the blue and unprecedented!

[Gracile]

Bishop's state senate district could potentially become a pickup opportunity for Democrats (ignoring redistricting) if it's any consolation.

[MT Treasurer]

I think the biggest takeaway from both elections is that the urban/suburban vs. rural divide is likely to intensify in 2020.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I think the biggest takeaway from both elections is that the urban/suburban vs. rural divide is likely to intensify in 2020.

[Storr]

Bishop's state senate district could potentially become a pickup opportunity for Democrats (ignoring redistricting) if it's any consolation.

It should have flipped in 2018. The problem is that the Democratic nominee had an old drunk driving conviction that came to light during the general election.

[IceSpear]

I think the biggest takeaway from both elections is that the urban/suburban vs. rural divide is likely to intensify in 2020.

I'm sure the usual suspects will continue to bury their heads in the sand though.

[RI]

Meck precincts remaining generally overwhelmingly ED McCready--- pct 73,75,91,96,101,131,137,144,216,217,227,232.

Includes some decent sized ones, but Union and swings in the Eastern Counties likely make it not enough even if ED numbers are larger than one might imagine over EV numbers in terms of votes remaining.

Could it be so narrow that it flips after absentees?

The largest possible margin absentees/provisionals could flip is maybe 3k votes, probably less.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Off-topic but what happened in Dare County?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If Dems can come anywhere near this close in the Presidential race in NC-09 next year, they’ll win the state easily, right?

[Gass3268]

If Dems can come anywhere near this close in the Presidential race in NC-09 next year, they’ll win the state easily, right?

Correct