Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[junior chįmp]

McReady choked like a dog. Should of worn a toolbelt

[lfromnj]

This is basically educated white libs showing up for any election in a special election era but other voters not wanting to show up.

[DINGO Joe]

This is basically educated white libs showing up for any election in a special election era but other voters not wanting to show up.

Well, if that were true then Robeson would have like 1,000 votes instead of 20,000

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

When will Gov  Evers announce the date of the Special Elections and Primary dates for WI-7?

[Brittain33]

Since this was an R+2 win in a R+8 district, I looked up D+6 for mirror universe toss-ups in a Clinton Presidency.

CA-52 (Peters)
CO-7 (Perlmutter)
DE-AL (Blunt Rochester)
FL-22 (Deutch)
FL-26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
GA-2 (Bishop)
IL-3 (Lipinski)
MA-6 (Moulton)
KY-3 (Yarmuth)
RI-2 (Langevin, I think)
WA-1 (DelBene)
WA-6 (Kilmer)

However, I think all of these are gravely misleading examples, and should be overruled because the final D+6 district feels red to all of us.

[Nyvin]

Since this was an R+2 win in a R+8 district, I looked up D+6 for mirror universe toss-ups in a Clinton Presidency.

CA-52 (Peters)
CO-7 (Perlmutter)
DE-AL (Blunt Rochester)
FL-22 (Deutch)
FL-26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
GA-2 (Bishop)
IL-3 (Lipinski)
MA-6 (Moulton)
KY-3 (Yarmuth)
RI-2 (Langevin, I think)
WA-1 (DelBene)
WA-6 (Kilmer)

However, I think all of these are gravely misleading examples, and should be overruled because the final D+6 district feels red to all of us.

Also since the Dems won the last two Pres popular votes,  PVI understates how dem a seat is (or overstate how GOP a seat is, whichever).   

Clinton won CA-52 by 58.1% - 35.6% and it's rated D+6 but Trump only only FL-15 by 53.1% - 43.1% and it's rated R+6.

When you compare the PVI to raw elections like this it doesn't work out so well.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171611976100917248

Dan Bishop was never ever down by 17 points

And the disingenuousness continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1171650087933698048

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171611976100917248

Dan Bishop was never ever down by 17 points

And the disingenuousness continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1171650087933698048

Kirk's tweet is very disingenuous. Most of Cumberland County is not even in NC-09, and turnout was down considerably compared to last year. Cumberland County as a whole will vote Democratic in 2020.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171611976100917248

Dan Bishop was never ever down by 17 points

And the disingenuousness continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1171650087933698048

It's not really disingenious.  It's really just drooling inbred Republican stupidity.  I guess we know who UWS is.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171611976100917248

Dan Bishop was never ever down by 17 points

And the disingenuousness continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1171650087933698048

It's not really disingenious.  It's really just drooling inbred Republican stupidity.  I guess we know who UWS is.

Do you think he is legitimately stupid enough to believe what he said, or do you think he knows he is lying by omission?

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171611976100917248

Dan Bishop was never ever down by 17 points

And the disingenuousness continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1171650087933698048

It's not really disingenious.  It's really just drooling inbred Republican stupidity.  I guess we know who UWS is.

Do you think he is legitimately stupid enough to believe what he said, or do you think he knows he is lying by omission?

Kirk isn't very bright. He also pulled that stunt where he called Young Kim the first Korean-American elected to Congress (not even true) before she ended up losing her race.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171611976100917248

Dan Bishop was never ever down by 17 points

And the disingenuousness continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1171650087933698048

Welcome to Trump's America, not that any of this is his fault, mind you.

[Rookie Yinzer]

And the disingenuousness continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1171650087933698048

Twitter is cancer.

[Oryxslayer]

And the disingenuousness continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1171650087933698048

Twitter is cancer.

Kirk is the mouthpiece of TPUSA. He has repeatedly proven to be either an idiot - see the fake presidential seal incident and TPUSA's inability to stop the  proliferation of TP joke memes, or a willing puppet similar to Prager U. Spreading false truths is all part of a days work for this guy. I mean, TPUSA is the organization that put Candice "Hitler would have been OK if he had just stayed in Germany" Owens in their upper echelons, they are not the brightest bunch.

[Gustaf]

And the disingenuousness continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1171650087933698048

Twitter is cancer.

Kirk is the mouthpiece of TPUSA. He has repeatedly proven to be either an idiot - see the fake presidential seal incident and TPUSA's inability to stop the  proliferation of TP joke memes, or a willing puppet similar to Prager U. Spreading false truths is all part of a days work for this guy. I mean, TPUSA is the organization that put Candice "Hitler would have been OK if he had just stayed in Germany" Owens in their upper echelons, they are not the brightest bunch.

I thought Kirk founded TPUSA?

[JonHawk]

Obviously late but fantastic win for Bishop! And Murphy.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171611976100917248

Dan Bishop was never ever down by 17 points

And the disingenuousness continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1171650087933698048

Wait until Kirk finds out the black population % in Mississippi and that Trump won that state in 2016, too.

[Annatar]

Pretty interesting how in the 3 congressional special elections since the midterms, the 2 (NC 3, PA 12) that took place in districts that are very Republican and moved towards Trump basically voted like they did in 2016 in the presidential election whereas NC 9 which didn't shift towards Trump and is less Republican was where the dems did 10% better then 2016.

[Nyvin]

Pretty interesting how in the 3 congressional special elections since the midterms, the 2 (NC 3, PA 12) that took place in districts that are very Republican and moved towards Trump basically voted like they did in 2016 in the presidential election whereas NC 9 which didn't shift towards Trump and is less Republican was where the dems did 10% better then 2016.

NC-3 and PA-12 are both very rural.   NC-9 is more suburban.   That's why.

[Badger]

If the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop at only the same rate as the other eastern counties, McCready probably wins.

Not sure the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop as much as they just did not turn out for McCready. Bishop's raw vote total in Robeson was barely short of Harris' whereas McCready's plunged.

This is a good point. I saw an article how there was a member of the Tribe that ran for the state legislature in 2018 as a Democrat that greatly boosted the turnout there and they went along with McCready. I imagine a lot of those folks didn't show up yesterday.

This mini thread of three post sums up yesterday's election entirely.

Let me add on a fourth post, because it seems Wasserman has found the reason for Bishops strength with the Lumbees, even though turnout was a problem for McReady:

So how did Bishop, whose state Charlotte area senate district is nowhere near Robeson County, do so well there? It turns out that in March, when Bishop was just launching his bid for the do-over congressional election, he sponsored a bill to open more grant opportunities for the Lumbees by clarifying state recognition of the tribe. Bishop's picture appeared in the Robesonian, and it likely paid off on Tuesday.

Sounds  like the exact sort of thing that would matter in this unique county with no comparable partners anywhere in the US.

EDIT: looks like I was beaten to the punch.

Yes. I believe this indeed sums up the election.

[Kool-Aid]

I'm unable to quote on this forum.

Interesting points I'm going to have to think about this.

[Brittain33]

I'm unable to quote on this forum.

Interesting points I'm going to have to think about this.

I think quoting becomes available after a few more posts.

[Tender Branson]

NY-27 will also have a special election.

The question is just when ...

[Tender Branson]

NY-27 will also have a special election.

The question is just when ...

Gov. Cuomo will set the date and it’s probably April 28, together with the DEM presidential primary, which could boost McMurrayˋs chances in the special election.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/news/2019/10/03/special-election-for-ny-27-will-likely-happen-in-april-

[OBD]

Any word on CA-25 yet?