Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Calthrina950]

My predictions were correct! Bishop ended up winning by 2%, as I had expected, and Murphy won easily (and actually did better than I had expected him to). These races, however, demonstrate that the horrific urban-rural divide which became even worse during 2016 and 2018 is becoming yet more pervasive. While McCready held his ground or improved in the suburban parts of the district compared to last year, he did significantly worse in its rural regions. It's clear that rural voters here perceived him as no different from a national Democrat.

[Pollster]

Notable that turnout in this special was rather low at ~189k votes.

This is significantly lower than the competitive specials we saw in 2017 and 2018. GA-06 was ~260k, MT-AL was ~381k, PA-18 was ~229k, OH-12 was ~208k.

No doubt McCready's campaign was expecting to pass the 200k mark at the least. Had they hit that threshold, McCready likely could've pulled off a thin victory, and his strong performance despite the turnout drop is a testament to how hard the trends have hit this district.

[Tender Branson]

My predictions were correct! Bishop ended up winning by 2%, as I had expected, and Murphy won easily (and actually did better than I had expected him to). These races, however, demonstrate that the horrific urban-rural divide which became even worse during 2016 and 2018 is becoming yet more pervasive. While McCready held his ground or improved in the suburban parts of the district compared to last year, he did significantly worse in its rural regions. It's clear that rural voters here perceived him as no different from a national Democrat.

Closer to 1.5% when all the remaining absentee/provisional ballots are counted.

[Calthrina950]

My predictions were correct! Bishop ended up winning by 2%, as I had expected, and Murphy won easily (and actually did better than I had expected him to). These races, however, demonstrate that the horrific urban-rural divide which became even worse during 2016 and 2018 is becoming yet more pervasive. While McCready held his ground or improved in the suburban parts of the district compared to last year, he did significantly worse in its rural regions. It's clear that rural voters here perceived him as no different from a national Democrat.

Closer to 1.5% when all the remaining absentee/provisional ballots are counted.

1.5% rounds up to 2%, does it not? That's more of a technicality than anything.

[Tender Branson]

My predictions were correct! Bishop ended up winning by 2%, as I had expected, and Murphy won easily (and actually did better than I had expected him to). These races, however, demonstrate that the horrific urban-rural divide which became even worse during 2016 and 2018 is becoming yet more pervasive. While McCready held his ground or improved in the suburban parts of the district compared to last year, he did significantly worse in its rural regions. It's clear that rural voters here perceived him as no different from a national Democrat.

Closer to 1.5% when all the remaining absentee/provisional ballots are counted.

1.5% rounds up to 2%, does it not? That's more of a technicality than anything.

Or 1.4%

We need to wait for the final numbers.

Still way better than the 58-42 R result in 2016 though.

I think that the Trump rally fired up the election-day R crowd, because the swing among election-day voters was 3% away from McCready compared with 2018, while among early voters the swing was 3% better for McCready ...

Election-day voters are the bigger chunk of voters, so his overall losing margin increased from 0.5 to about 1.5 points.

[Tender Branson]

I wonder what this means for KY-Gov. ...

There you have a deeply unpopular R Governor in a strongly R environment with good polls for the Democrat.

[Calthrina950]

I wonder what this means for KY-Gov. ...

There you have a deeply unpopular R Governor in a strongly R environment with good polls for the Democrat.

Not sure how much it relates, but given the rural swings McCready suffered against him, I think Bevin will (as I've thought before), win reelection. Beshear, it is clear to me, will suffer a horrendous collapse from his 2015 performance in rural areas, which (combined with his overwhelming wins in Louisville and Lexington) was what enabled him to barely win his AG race.

But you are right about the rally, and I will concede that we should wait for the final results. But 2% still isn't far off from what you've indicated.

[Tender Branson]

I wonder what this means for KY-Gov. ...

There you have a deeply unpopular R Governor in a strongly R environment with good polls for the Democrat.

Not sure how much it relates, but given the rural swings McCready suffered against him, I think Bevin will (as I've thought before), win reelection. Beshear, it is clear to me, will suffer a horrendous collapse from his 2015 performance in rural areas, which (combined with his overwhelming wins in Louisville and Lexington) was what enabled him to barely win his AG race.

But you are right about the rally, and I will concede that we should wait for the final results. But 2% still isn't far off from what you've indicated.

I agree with that.

Based on those NC results and KY being an extremely rural state, I would say Bevin still wins 49-46 or something. And the polls will be off by 10 points.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It feels awful to be right all along. But I'll accept my accolades now in spite of that. Actually, I'm exaggerating. I kind of feel nothing from this election. That's one benefit of keeping expectations low-I basically insulated myself from disappointment. Enthusiasm can't overcome some factors. McCready was never going to pull a Conor Lamb miracle, or replicate his performance from last year, which probably still would have been a loss even in spite of Harris' shenanigans. However, McCready probably did as well as he possibly could have under the circumstances of a special election with guaranteed decreased Democratic turnout, the aftermath of a hurricane potentially affecting it, and gerrymandering by the always repulsive North Carolina GOP.

McCready has nothing to be ashamed of, and the Democrats as a whole don't either. I still think North Carolina should be renamed "More Republican Florida," but the fact that McCready was still able to come as close as he did to winning what would have been a safe district if Pittenger was still the incumbent, is indeed worth noting. The state is changing, but like with Georgia or Texas, I don't know if it's changing fast enough. I still consider it lean R for the presidential election, though I do wonder what this says about next year's Senate race. Perhaps that is winnable after all, with a little work.

I must admit to some frustration though at the immediate media narrative I have seen from this election. CNN's headline described the election as a "bellwether" for the presidential election. Yeah, to hell with that! In what world is a special election in a Republican gerrymandered district somehow representative of the country as a whole? Maybe if North Carolina somehow becomes the state that decides the election, but that is nearly impossible. This election doesn't really matter much, as do most special elections. It would have been nice to have won and have the Democrats bolster their numbers in the House even slightly, but 2020 will be its own thing independent of this election that is going to fade from memory very quickly.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I wonder what this means for KY-Gov. ...

There you have a deeply unpopular R Governor in a strongly R environment with good polls for the Democrat.

I got some bad news...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This doesnt mean anything; this district was a district that was Tilt R. According to Cook, Trump is still on track to lose in a landslide. The districts that Dems must hold are in 279 blue wall

[Tartarus Sauce]

I seriously doubt that the NCGOP thought that the eastern, rural, formerly Democratic portions of this district would be bailing them out on this seat just a few years after they redrew the lines. They're losing ground real fast in southern Mecklenburg County.

[Xing]

I wonder what this means for KY-Gov. ...

There you have a deeply unpopular R Governor in a strongly R environment with good polls for the Democrat.

I got some bad news...

Yeah, if Democrats can't win a Trump +12 district because of underperforming in the rural areas, somehow I doubt they're winning a Trump +30 state with large swaths of rural areas that were heavily Republican even in 2012, even if they're facing an Unpopular Incumbent.

[Sir Mohamed]

Too bad, adding one more seat would have been nice. But the result is what I expected all along. Doesn't mean anything for 2020. Prez and senate in NC are pure tossup and the gov race is lean D.

[Landslide Lyndon]

And here we go again with the hot takes about how Democrats need to find a way to appeal to rural rednecks and their "economic anxiety".
Funny how after all the beatings Republicans took the last two years not one single pundit or journalist ever said that they should visit some of those affluent suburbs and find a way to appeal to those educated suburbanites. I guess visiting a Starbucks isn't considered as cool as visiting a diner in Hicksville, Ohio.

[Skye]

So basically all we're learning is that it's really close and we can't forecast. This is fine

No, no, we're supposed to OVERREACT at slight changes during the early vote count and declare the race over, as usual.

McCready has won.  I can see it now.

It literally took two posts lol.

[Epaminondas]

10 months ago, 138,000 Democrats voted for McCready.
Yesterday, 92,000 voted for him.

Who are these 46,000 Democrats?

And here we go again with the hot takes about how Democrats need to find a way to appeal to rural rednecks and their "economic anxiety".
Funny how after all the beatings Republicans took the last two years not one single pundit or journalist never said that they should visit some of those affluent suburbs and find a way to appeal to those educated suburbanites.

Kevin Williamson at National Review is on a one-man crusade to get the GOP involved in cities again.
Urban outreach
From Sea to Shining Sea
We'll Always Have... Fort Worth?

The writing is sterling and the ideas surprisingly convincing.
Thank goodness his Never Trump stance condemn him to crying in the wilderness.

[wbrocks67]

Sad that McCready lost, but losing by 2 in a Trump +12 district without a national 'blue wave' shows that the GOP & Trump are still severely in trouble. Especially considering that McCready IMPROVED in suburban Mecklenberg County despite doing worse everywhere else.

[wbrocks67]

I have to say though, I know McCready wanted to focus on the issues, and this is kind of hindsight, but it is rather shocking that he didn't focus on either the bathroom bill or the fraud of the last election.

It's also shocking to me that voters in this district would give this to the GOP after they literally cheated last time.

[Mr.Phips]

People seem to overlook the fact that this is an almost impossible district for a Democrat to win.  Union county is very inelastic and makes up like 36% of the district.  It is nearly impossible to offset the Republican margin there in the other parts of the district, none of which are that heavily Democratic.

[mds32]

I don't know how many of you can try to spin this into a good night dor the Democrats. $6M spent so you can lose by more than you lost in 2018 (McCready) and to have lost more ground in almost the entire district says to me that the Republicans have made an improvement over 2018. Also in NC-03, Muephy outperformed Trump's margins. This election night told me that some of the swing voters that voted against the GOP in 2018 have shifted back to the GOP as of now. Also, North Carolina showed us that many of the areas where Trump managed to help shift margins in 2016 definitely were shifted again. Robeson, Anson, Bladen, and Richmond counties all looked good compared to pre-2012 still for the GOP. Just my take.

[wbrocks67]

After looking at the 2016 map, I'm kinda shocked that the Dem doesn't do even better than Mecklenberg County - Hillary won it by 30% in 2016, so kinda surprised McCready only won by 9% and 12% in 2016 and 2018. The fact that it's trending BLUER on the local level means Trump is probably in for a world of hurt in that county in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

I don't know how many of you can try to spin this into a good night dor the Democrats. $6M spent so you can lose by more than you lost in 2018 (McCready) and to have lost more ground in almost the entire district says to me that the Republicans have made an improvement over 2018. Also in NC-03, Muephy outperformed Trump's margins. This election night told me that some of the swing voters that voted against the GOP in 2018 have shifted back to the GOP as of now. Also, North Carolina showed us that many of the areas where Trump managed to help shift margins in 2016 definitely were shifted again. Robeson, Anson, Bladen, and Richmond counties all looked good compared to pre-2012 still for the GOP. Just my take.

It's a good night because Trump won this by 12% in 2016, and by the end of provisionals, McCready will likely have only lost by 1.5%, compared to 0.4% in 2018, so nearly the same result. Not to mention that he did even better in the suburbs, which will continue to spell trouble for Trump and the GOP in 2020.

[Brittain33]

If you look at the PVI and how nearly all comparable seats are held by Rs, it’s 2018 which was the extraordinary outcome for Dems in this district. It’s really remarkable that McCready got so close that Harris’s cheating was required to put him over the top... no wonder Harris thought he would get away with it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

After looking at the 2016 map, I'm kinda shocked that the Dem doesn't do even better than Mecklenberg County - Hillary won it by 30% in 2016, so kinda surprised McCready only won by 9% and 12% in 2016 and 2018. The fact that it's trending BLUER on the local level means Trump is probably in for a world of hurt in that county in 2020.

Most of Mecklenberg is in the 12th district, not the 9th.
Hillary won the portion of the county in the 12th district by 40 points, but lost the portion in the 9th by 3 points.